Projected win totals and ratings, fixed before the season — they do not move as games are played. 2026 rankings as they stand today →
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. The projected-win range is a per-team ±1σ band: game randomness plus our season-long rating error (a shared shock across all of a team's games) — so teams with more coin-flip games get a wider band.
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.08→7.91 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.08 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested |
|---|
| Corr |
|---|
| RMSE |
|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.784 | 8.08 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.08 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.92 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio State | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +25.1±7.8 | 7.6 11.3 | 9.4 ±1.8 | +30.1 |
| 2 |  Oregon | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +23.1±7.8 | 8.0 11.4 | 9.7 ±1.7 | +25.9 |
| 3 |  Georgia | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +21±7.8 | 7.2 11.2 | 9.2 ±2.0 | +24.1 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | Playoff contender | +20.3±7.9 | 8.7 11.8 | 10.3 ±1.5 | +24.4 |
| 5 |  Texas Tech | Playoff contender | +20.2±7.9 | 9.3 12.0 | 10.7 ±1.4 | +27.6 |
| 6 |  Indiana | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +19.4±8 | 7.0 11.0 | 9 ±2.0 | +32.4 |
| 7 |  Texas A&M | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +18.8±7.8 | 7.0 10.9 | 9 ±2.0 | +20.7 |
| 8 |  Ole Miss | Bowl team | +17.1±7.9 | 6.2 10.4 | 8.3 ±2.1 | +24 |
| 9 |  Utah | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +16.8±7.8 | 7.6 11.4 | 9.5 ±1.9 | +22.2 |
| 10 |  USC | Bowl team | +16.7±7.8 | 6.4 10.4 | 8.4 ±2.0 | +16.9 |
| 11 |  Texas | Bowl team | +16.4±7.8 | 5.2 9.9 | 7.5 ±2.3 | +16.2 |
| 12 |  Miami | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +16.3±7.9 | 7.7 11.3 | 9.5 ±1.8 | +20.7 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | Bowl team | +15.3±7.8 | 5.2 9.8 | 7.5 ±2.3 | +18.3 |
| 14 |  Washington | Bowl team | +15.1±7.9 | 6.1 10.3 | 8.2 ±2.1 | +18.4 |
| 15 |  BYU | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +14.2±7.8 | 6.7 10.7 | 8.7 ±2.0 | +15.9 |
| 16 |  Vanderbilt | Bowl team | +13.3±7.9 | 5.6 10.1 | 7.9 ±2.2 | +20.3 |
| 17 |  Tennessee | Bowl team | +12.9±7.9 | 5.5 10.0 | 7.7 ±2.2 | +15 |
| 18 |  Iowa | Bowl team | +12.9±7.9 | 6.0 10.1 | 8 ±2.1 | +19.7 |
| 19 |  Alabama | Bowl team | +12.8±8 | 5.1 9.7 | 7.4 ±2.3 | +14.8 |
| 20 |  Michigan | Bowl team | +12.8±7.8 | 5.2 9.5 | 7.3 ±2.2 | +12.4 |
| 21 |  SMU | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +10.6±7.8 | 6.8 10.7 | 8.7 ±2.0 | +13.4 |
| 22 |  Missouri | Bowl team | +10.1±7.9 | 4.6 9.1 | 6.8 ±2.2 | +14.4 |
| 23 |  Arizona | Bowl team | +9.9±7.8 | 5.4 9.7 | 7.6 ±2.2 | +12 |
| 24 |  Penn State | Bowl team | +8.5±8 | 5.0 9.7 | 7.3 ±2.3 | +18.1 |
| 25 |  Houston | Bowl team | +8.3±7.8 | 6.2 10.2 | 8.2 ±2.0 | +7.4 |
| 26 |  South Carolina | Bubble | +8.2±7.8 | 4.3 8.7 | 6.5 ±2.2 | +5.9 |
| 27 |  LSU | Bubble | +8.2±8 | 4.1 8.8 | 6.4 ±2.4 | +10.3 |
| 28 |  Illinois | Bowl team | +7.9±8 | 5.1 9.4 | 7.2 ±2.1 | +12.9 |
| 29 |  Clemson | Bowl team | +7.8±7.9 | 5.6 10.1 | 7.9 ±2.2 | +9.5 |
| 30 |  Louisville | Bowl team | +7.7±7.9 | 5.3 9.9 | 7.6 ±2.3 | +12.4 |
| 31 |  San Diego State | Bowl team | +7.5±7.7 | 5.6 9.7 | 7.7 ±2.1 | +6.7 |
| 32 |  Northwestern | Bubble | +7.2±7.7 | 4.6 8.6 | 6.6 ±2.0 | +5.8 |
| 33 |  Kansas State | Bowl team | +6.8±7.8 | 5.5 10.1 | 7.8 ±2.3 | +7 |
| 34 |  Florida State | Bowl team | +6.7±7.9 | 4.6 9.1 | 6.9 ±2.3 | +7.2 |
| 35 |  Florida | Bubble | +6.5±7.8 | 3.4 8.0 | 5.7 ±2.3 | +3.5 |
| 36 |  Auburn | Bubble | +6.4±8 | 3.7 8.3 | 6 ±2.3 | +11.6 |
| 37 |  Pittsburgh | Bowl team | +5.7±7.9 | 5.5 10.0 | 7.8 ±2.2 | +8.4 |
| 38 |  NC State | Bowl team | +4.8±7.8 | 5.2 9.7 | 7.4 ±2.3 | +4.8 |
| 39 |  James Madison | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +4.5±8 | 6.3 10.6 | 8.4 ±2.2 | +12.3 |
| 40 |  Georgia Tech | Bowl team | +4.4±8 | 4.7 9.2 | 6.9 ±2.2 | +9.3 |
| 41 |  TCU | Bubble | +4.3±8 | 4.2 8.7 | 6.5 ±2.2 | +8.3 |
| 42 |  South Florida | Bowl team | +4.2±8 | 6.2 10.6 | 8.4 ±2.2 | +11.6 |
| 43 |  Washington State | Bowl team | +4.1±7.7 | 4.1 8.3 | 6.2 ±2.1 | +3.8 |
| 44 |  Boise State | Bowl team | +4±7.8 | 4.4 8.5 | 6.4 ±2.1 | +3.1 |
| 45 |  Minnesota | Bubble | +3.8±7.8 | 4.0 8.4 | 6.2 ±2.2 | +1.5 |
| 46 |  Toledo | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +3.8±7.8 | 7.2 11.0 | 9.1 ±1.9 | +6 |
| 47 |  UTSA | Bowl team | +3.5±7.8 | 5.4 9.8 | 7.6 ±2.2 | +3.7 |
| 48 |  Texas State | Bowl team | +3.4±7.8 | 4.3 8.5 | 6.4 ±2.1 | +2.3 |
| 49 |  Nebraska | Bubble | +3.4±7.9 | 3.4 7.6 | 5.5 ±2.1 | +6.2 |
| 50 |  Iowa State | Bowl team | +3.4±8.1 | 4.4 8.8 | 6.6 ±2.2 | +9.9 |
| 51 |  Western Kentucky | Bowl team | +3.4±7.7 | 6.2 10.0 | 8.1 ±1.9 | +1.6 |
| 52 |  Mississippi State | Bubble | +3.4±7.9 | 3.1 7.4 | 5.3 ±2.2 | +4.1 |
| 53 |  Virginia | Bowl team | +3.3±8 | 5.0 9.7 | 7.4 ±2.3 | +11.1 |
| 54 |  North Texas | Bowl team | +2.5±8.1 | 5.3 9.6 | 7.4 ±2.2 | +13.8 |
| 55 |  Wake Forest | Bubble | +2.4±8 | 4.0 8.7 | 6.3 ±2.3 | +5.7 |
| 56 |  Tulane | Bowl team | +2.2±8 | 4.6 9.5 | 7.1 ±2.5 | +6.3 |
| 57 |  Baylor | Bubble | +2.2±7.8 | 3.7 8.3 | 6 ±2.3 | +1.4 |
| 58 |  East Carolina | Bowl team | +2±8 | 5.5 9.9 | 7.7 ±2.2 | +8 |
| 59 |  Maryland | Bubble | +2±7.9 | 4.0 8.4 | 6.2 ±2.2 | +0.6 |
| 60 |  Western Michigan | Bowl team | +2±7.7 | 5.7 10.0 | 7.9 ±2.2 | -1.4 |
| 61 |  Duke | Bubble | +1.8±8 | 3.9 8.5 | 6.2 ±2.3 | +6.6 |
| 62 |  Rutgers | Bubble | +1.8±7.9 | 4.0 8.3 | 6.2 ±2.1 | +1 |
| 63 |  Arkansas | Rebuild | +1.8±8 | 2.4 6.5 | 4.5 ±2.1 | +5.1 |
| 64 |  Memphis | Bowl team | +1.6±8.1 | 5.1 9.8 | 7.4 ±2.3 | +7.6 |
| 65 |  Arizona State | Bubble | +1.3±8 | 3.7 8.0 | 5.8 ±2.1 | +3.9 |
| 66 |  Hawai'i | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +1±7.8 | 6.5 10.7 | 8.6 ±2.1 | +1.7 |
| 67 |  New Mexico | Bowl team | +1±7.8 | 6.2 10.2 | 8.2 ±2.0 | +0.9 |
| 68 |  Kansas | Bubble | +0.7±8 | 3.9 8.4 | 6.2 ±2.3 | +4.1 |
| 69 |  UNLV | Bowl team | +0.6±8 | 5.3 9.9 | 7.6 ±2.3 | +4.3 |
| 70 |  Cincinnati | Bubble | +0.4±8 | 3.4 7.7 | 5.5 ±2.2 | +4.5 |
| 71 |  Fresno State | Bowl team | +0.4±7.9 | 4.1 8.2 | 6.2 ±2.0 | +1.8 |
| 72 |  Old Dominion | Bowl team | +0.3±8 | 5.1 9.9 | 7.5 ±2.4 | +5.9 |
| 73 |  Louisiana Tech | Bowl team | -0.2±7.8 | 4.9 9.6 | 7.2 ±2.3 | -1.3 |
| 74 |  Marshall | Bowl team | -0.4±7.7 | 5.7 10.0 | 7.9 ±2.1 | -4.5 |
| 75 |  Kentucky | Rebuild | -0.6±8 | 2.2 6.4 | 4.3 ±2.1 | +1.8 |
| 76 |  California | Bubble | -0.6±7.8 | 3.8 8.5 | 6.2 ±2.3 | -3.2 |
| 77 |  UConn | Bowl team | -0.9±8.1 | 5.0 9.7 | 7.4 ±2.3 | +5.1 |
| 78 |  Utah State | Bubble | -1.2±7.8 | 3.1 7.2 | 5.1 ±2.0 | -3.1 |
| 79 |  Southern Miss | Bubble | -2±7.7 | 4.1 8.8 | 6.5 ±2.3 | -7.1 |
| 80 |  Ohio | Bowl team | -2.1±7.8 | 5.5 9.9 | 7.7 ±2.2 | -4 |
| 81 |  UCF | Bubble | -2.2±8 | 3.6 8.2 | 5.9 ±2.3 | -1.2 |
| 82 |  Navy | Bubble | -2.7±8 | 4.1 8.7 | 6.4 ±2.3 | +6.2 |
| 83 |  North Carolina | Rebuild | -2.9±8 | 2.4 6.7 | 4.5 ±2.2 | -6.6 |
| 84 |  Michigan State | Rebuild | -3±8 | 1.7 6.2 | 3.9 ±2.2 | -3.4 |
| 85 |  Purdue | Rebuild | -3.2±7.9 | 2.2 6.3 | 4.3 ±2.0 | -6.1 |
| 86 |  Louisiana | Bowl team | -3.5±7.7 | 5.0 9.4 | 7.2 ±2.2 | -10.1 |
| 87 |  Temple | Bubble | -3.8±7.9 | 3.9 8.4 | 6.1 ±2.3 | -5.1 |
| 88 |  Army | Bubble | -4±7.8 | 3.6 8.5 | 6 ±2.4 | +0.8 |
| 89 |  Troy | Bubble | -4±7.9 | 4.2 8.8 | 6.5 ±2.3 | -4.8 |
| 90 |  Wisconsin | Rebuild | -4.1±8 | 2.6 6.9 | 4.7 ±2.1 | -4.4 |
| 91 |  Jacksonville State | Bowl team | -4.3±7.9 | 5.5 9.9 | 7.7 ±2.2 | -6.7 |
| 92 |  UCLA | Rebuild | -4.4±7.8 | 1.9 6.4 | 4.1 ±2.2 | -8.7 |
| 93 |  Air Force | Bowl team | -4.6±7.8 | 5.0 9.6 | 7.3 ±2.3 | -3.2 |
| 94 |  West Virginia | Rebuild | -4.9±8 | 2.7 6.9 | 4.8 ±2.1 | -6.8 |
| 95 |  Delaware | Bubble | -5.1±7.7 | 4.2 8.8 | 6.5 ±2.3 | -10.9 |
| 96 |  Miami (OH) | Bowl team | -5.2±8 | 4.4 8.9 | 6.6 ±2.3 | -3.4 |
| 97 |  Virginia Tech | Rebuild | -5.4±7.9 | 2.4 6.7 | 4.6 ±2.2 | -10.1 |
| 98 |  Florida Atlantic | Bubble | -5.4±7.8 | 3.5 8.1 | 5.8 ±2.3 | -8.7 |
| 99 |  Central Michigan | Bowl team | -5.5±7.9 | 4.5 8.8 | 6.6 ±2.2 | -8.8 |
| 100 |  South Alabama | Bubble | -5.8±7.8 | 3.5 8.3 | 5.9 ±2.4 | -12.7 |
| 101 |  Boston College | Rebuild | -6.9±8 | 2.0 6.0 | 4 ±2.0 | -8.5 |
| 102 |  Liberty | Bowl team | -7±7.9 | 4.5 9.2 | 6.8 ±2.3 | -9 |
| 103 |  Arkansas State | Bubble | -7±8 | 3.8 8.4 | 6.1 ±2.3 | -8.8 |
| 104 |  Tulsa | Bubble | -7.1±7.9 | 3.8 8.3 | 6 ±2.3 | -10 |
| 105 |  Akron | Bubble | -7.4±7.7 | 3.7 8.2 | 6 ±2.3 | -13.9 |
| 106 |  App State | Bubble | -7.4±7.9 | 3.8 8.3 | 6.1 ±2.3 | -11.4 |
| 107 |  Colorado | Rebuild | -7.4±8 | 1.8 5.8 | 3.8 ±2.0 | -8.3 |
| 108 |  Syracuse | Rebuild | -7.5±7.9 | 1.8 5.9 | 3.8 ±2.1 | -13.1 |
| 109 |  Kennesaw State | Bubble | -7.6±8 | 3.9 8.6 | 6.2 ±2.3 | -5.4 |
| 110 |  Stanford | Rebuild | -7.9±8 | 1.6 5.6 | 3.6 ±2.0 | -11.8 |
| 111 |  Eastern Michigan | Bubble | -8±7.8 | 4.4 8.7 | 6.5 ±2.1 | -14.7 |
| 112 |  Florida International | Bubble | -8.3±7.9 | 4.0 8.7 | 6.3 ±2.4 | -10.5 |
| 113 |  Buffalo | Bubble | -8.8±8.1 | 4.4 8.5 | 6.5 ±2.1 | -7.5 |
| 114 |  Georgia Southern | Rebuild | -9.2±8.1 | 2.6 7.1 | 4.8 ±2.3 | -9.4 |
| 115 |  Missouri State | Bubble | -9.6±7.9 | 3.0 7.3 | 5.1 ±2.1 | -10.7 |
| 116 |  Oregon State | Rebuild | -9.7±7.8 | 1.8 5.6 | 3.7 ±1.9 | -15.9 |
| 117 |  Wyoming | Bubble | -9.7±8 | 3.6 8.3 | 6 ±2.3 | -11.3 |
| 118 |  Nevada | Bubble | -9.8±7.9 | 3.6 8.2 | 5.9 ±2.3 | -13.4 |
| 119 |  UAB | Rebuild | -10±7.8 | 2.5 6.7 | 4.6 ±2.1 | -15.8 |
| 120 |  Colorado State | Rebuild | -10.3±7.9 | 1.7 5.5 | 3.6 ±1.9 | -15.6 |
| 121 |  Rice | Rebuild | -10.4±7.9 | 1.9 6.1 | 4 ±2.1 | -14.8 |
| 122 |  Northern Illinois | Bubble | -10.9±7.9 | 3.4 7.7 | 5.5 ±2.1 | -16.7 |
| 123 |  Bowling Green | Bubble | -11.8±8.1 | 3.6 7.5 | 5.5 ±2.0 | -12.6 |
| 124 |  Kent State | Rebuild | -12±7.8 | 2.9 6.9 | 4.9 ±2.0 | -19.3 |
| 125 |  Middle Tennessee | Bubble | -12.1±7.9 | 2.8 7.4 | 5.1 ±2.3 | -16 |
| 126 |  Oklahoma State | Rebuild | -12.8±8.1 | 1.4 5.0 | 3.2 ±1.8 | -15.1 |
| 127 |  Coastal Carolina | Rebuild | -12.8±8 | 2.4 6.9 | 4.6 ±2.3 | -15.1 |
| 128 |  San José State | Rebuild | -13.4±8.1 | 2.9 7.5 | 5.2 ±2.3 | -14.3 |
| 129 |  New Mexico State | Rebuild | -14±8 | 2.1 6.6 | 4.3 ±2.2 | -15.5 |
| 130 |  UTEP | Rebuild | -14.8±8.1 | 2.6 6.7 | 4.6 ±2.0 | -17.5 |
| 131 |  UL Monroe | Rebuild | -15.4±7.9 | 1.6 5.9 | 3.8 ±2.2 | -21.6 |
| 132 |  Georgia State | Rebuild | -15.5±7.9 | 1.9 6.2 | 4.1 ±2.2 | -24.5 |
| 133 |  Charlotte | Rebuild | -17.6±7.9 | 1.1 4.8 | 3 ±1.9 | -26.7 |
| 134 |  Sam Houston | Rebuild | -17.8±7.8 | 1.7 5.8 | 3.7 ±2.0 | -27.8 |
| 135 |  Ball State | Rebuild | -18.2±8.1 | 2.4 6.1 | 4.3 ±1.9 | -23 |
| 136 |  Massachusetts | Rebuild | -31.2±8.3 | 1.1 4.4 | 2.7 ±1.6 | -36.6 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. The projected-win range is a per-team ±1σ band over the real 2026 schedule: game randomness plus our season-long rating error, which moves all of a team's games together — so a team with more toss-up games gets a wider band, and a clear favorite (or a clear also-ran) gets a tighter one. The rating ± is the walk-forward residual spread; it's the same for every established team because next-season predictability doesn't reliably differ between them (we tested — it will diverge for data-poor teams and once returning production publishes). Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).
