vs Michigan State · Wk 3Win prob 97%Model -27.6Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
C.J. CarrPassing492 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
Aneyas WilliamsRushing119 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 avg
Jordan FaisonReceiving8 rec · 135 yds · 2 TD
Jaiden AusberryTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Teddy Jarrard | QB | FR | 6'4" | 207 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 10 | Noah Grubbs | QB | FR | 6'4" | 209 | Lake Mary, FL |
| 12 | Blake Hebert | QB | FR | 6'2" | 216 | Boxford, MA |
| 13 | CJ Carr | QB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Saline, MI |
| 2 | Nolan James Jr. | RB | FR | 5'10" | 212 | Westwood, NJ |
| 20 | Jonaz Walton | RB | FR | 5'9" | 214 | Carrollton, GA |
| 21 | Kedren Young | RB | SO | 5'11" | 234 | Lufkin, TX |
| 22 | Aneyas Williams | RB | JR | 5'10" | 210 | Hannibal, MO |
| 26 | Javian Osborne | RB | FR | 5'9" | 200 | Forney, TX |
| 37 | Kurt Smith | RB | FR | 5'9" | 187 | South Beloit, IL |
| 46 | Matt Williams | RB | SR | 5'9" | 195 | Naperville, IL |
| 0 | Quincy Porter | WR | SO | 6'4" | 207 | New Milford, NJ |
| 1 | Jaden Greathouse | WR | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Austin, TX |
| 3 | Mylan Graham | WR | SO | 6'1" | 192 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 4 | Bubba Frazier | WR | FR | 5'10" | 182 | Savannah, GA |
| 5 | Cam Williams | WR | SO | 6'2" | 201 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 6 | Jordan Faison | WR | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 8 | Jerome Bettis Jr. | WR | FR | 6'2" | 199 | Atlanta, GA |
| 11 | Devin Fitzgerald | WR | FR | 6'2" | 208 | Paradise Valley, AZ |
| 14 | Micah Gilbert | WR | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Charlotte, NC |
| 15 | Brayden Robinson | WR | FR | 5'7" | 168 | Red Oak, TX |
| 16 | Dylan Faison | WR | FR | 6'2" | 163 | Weston, FL |
| 17 | Elijah Burress | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Totowa, NJ |
| 18 | Kaydon Finley | WR | FR | 6'1" | 207 | Aledo, TX |
| 19 | Logan Saldate | WR | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Gilroy, CA |
| 31 | Xavier Southall | WR | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Alexandria, VA |
| 33 | Matt Jeffery | WR | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Cheshire, CT |
| 7 | Ty Washington | TE | SR | 6'4" | 253 | Leesburg, GA |
| 24 | Ian Premer | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Great Bend, KS |
| 42 | Henry Garrity | TE | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Bloomfield Hills, MI |
| 84 | Preston Fryzel | TE | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Holland, OH |
| 85 | Jack Larsen | TE | SO | 6'3" | 248 | Charlotte, NC |
| 86 | Kaleb Johnson | TE | FR | 6'2" | 241 | Mishawaka, IN |
| 87 | Cooper Flanagan | TE | JR | 6'6" | 250 | Pleasant Hill, CA |
| 88 | James Flanigan | TE | FR | 6'6" | 251 | Green Bay, WI |
| 89 | Austin Ratigan | TE | FR | 6'4" | 223 | South Bend, IN |
| 50 | Sullivan Garvin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Allegan, MI |
| 51 | Ben Nichols | OL | FR | 6'5" | 320 | Davison, MI |
| 52 | Devan Houstan | OL | JR | 6'4" | 305 | Mississauga, AB |
| 54 | Anthonie Knapp | OL | JR | 6'5" | 304 | Roswell, GA |
| 55 | Chris Terek | OL | JR | 6'5" | 321 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 56 | Charles Jagusah | OL | SO | 6'5" | 330 | Rock Island, IL |
| 57 | Cam Herron | OL | FR | 6'2" | 291 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 58 | Matty Augustine | OL | FR | 6'8" | 310 | Greenwich, CT |
| 60 | Max Anderson | OL | JR | 6'3" | 303 | Saint Paul, MN |
| 61 | Robbie Wollan | OL | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Saint Paul, MN |
| 64 | Joe Otting | OL | JR | 6'4" | 305 | Topeka, KS |
| 65 | Grayson McKeogh | OL | FR | 6'7" | 298 | Perkasie, PA |
| 66 | Tyler Merrill | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Mechanicsburg, PA |
| 67 | Gregory Patrick | OL | FR | 6'6" | 281 | Portage, MI |
| 68 | Charlie Thom | OL | FR | 6'7" | 280 | Darien, CT |
| 70 | Ashton Craig | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Lawrenceburg, IN |
| 71 | Styles Prescod | OL | SO | 6'6" | 298 | Fishers, IN |
| 74 | Will Black | OL | FR | 6'7" | 316 | London, ON |
| 75 | Sullivan Absher | OL | JR | 6'7" | 320 | Belmont, NC |
| 76 | Guerby Lambert | OL | SO | 6'7" | 325 | Boston, MA |
| 77 | Peter Jones | OL | SO | 6'5" | 315 | Coatesville, PA |
| 78 | Owen Strebig | OL | FR | 6'8" | 302 | Brookfield, WI |
| 0 | Tionne Gray | DL | SO | 6'5" | 330 | St. Louis, MO |
| 5 | Boubacar Traore | DL | JR | 6'5" | 253 | Boston, MA |
| 6 | Christopher Burgess Jr. | DL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Chicago, IL |
| 7 | Francis Brewu | DL | JR | 6'1" | 285 | Westerville, OH |
| 10 | Loghan Thomas | DL | JR | 6'3" | 215 | Katy, TX |
| 11 | Keon Keeley | DL | JR | 6'5" | 275 | Tampa, FL |
| 14 | Ebenezer Ewetade | DL | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Raleigh, NC |
| 40 | Dominik Hulak | DL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Glendale Heights, IL |
| 42 | Cole Mullins | DL | SO | 6'4" | 280 | Hoschton, GA |
| 44 | Rodney Dunham | DL | FR | 6'4" | 242 | Charlotte, NC |
| 47 | Jason Onye | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | North Providence, RI |
| 55 | Tiki Hola | DL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Bastrop, TX |
| 56 | Elijah Hughes | DL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Arlington, VA |
| 59 | Sean Sevillano Jr. | DL | SO | 6'2" | 320 | Clearwater, FL |
| 60 | Davion Dixon | DL | FR | 6'2" | 316 | Homestead, FL |
| 88 | Armel Mukam | DL | JR | 6'3" | 296 | Laprairie, PQ |
| 90 | Elijah Golden | DL | FR | 6'4" | 292 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 91 | Gordy Sulfsted | DL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 94 | Joe Reiff | DL | FR | 6'5" | 264 | Elmhurst, IL |
| 95 | Bryce Young | DL | JR | 6'6" | 260 | Charlotte, NC |
| 3 | Jaylen Sneed | LB | SR | 6'1" | 227 | Hilton Head Island, SC |
| 4 | Jaiden Ausberry | LB | JR | 6'1" | 226 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 16 | Ko'o Kia | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Kahalu'u, HI |
| 19 | Madden Faraimo | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Oceanside, CA |
| 23 | Ja'Kobe Clapper | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 27 | Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa | LB | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Inland Empire, CA |
| 34 | Drayk Bowen | LB | SR | 6'2" | 232 | Saint John, IN |
| 35 | Teddy Rezac | LB | SO | 6'3" | 226 | Omaha, NE |
| 38 | Tommy Powlus | LB | JR | 6'1" | 213 | Granger, IN |
| 43 | Kahanu Kia | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 58 | Thomas Davis Jr. | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Weddington, NC |
| 1 | Dallas Golden | CB | SO | 6'0" | 191 | Tampa, FL |
| 2 | DJ McKinney | CB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Colleyville, TX |
| 12 | Jayden Sanders | CB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Kilgore, TX |
| 13 | Ayden Pouncey | CB | FR | 6'3" | 180 | Orlando, FL |
| 15 | Leonard Moore | CB | JR | 6'2" | 197 | Round Rock, TX |
| 21 | Khary Adams | CB | FR | 6'1" | 187 | Baltimore, MD |
| 24 | Mark Zackery IV | CB | SO | 5'10" | 184 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 26 | Chaz Smith | CB | FR | 6'1" | 172 | Knoxville, TN |
| 29 | Christian Gray | CB | SR | 6'0" | 186 | Saint Louis, MO |
| 32 | Nick Reddish | CB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Charlotte, NC |
| 8 | Adon Shuler | S | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Irvington, NJ |
| 9 | Brauntae Johnson | S | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 20 | Joey O'Brien | S | FR | 6'5" | 203 | Roxborough, PA |
| 22 | Ethan Long | S | FR | 6'2" | 204 | Milford, CT |
| 25 | Brandon Logan | S | FR | 5'11" | 197 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 28 | Luke Talich | S | SR | 6'4" | 204 | Cody, WY |
| 30 | Patrick Downes | S | FR | 6'1" | 204 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 48 | Chase Young | S | FR | 6'2" | 199 | Eagan, MN |
| 35 | Spencer Porath | PK | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Brownsburg, IN |
| 36 | Micah Drescher | PK | FR | 6'5" | 196 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 18 | Erik Schmidt | P | SO | 6'2" | 211 | Milwaukee, WI |
| 39 | Jasper Scaife | P | FR | 6'6" | 215 | West Perth |
| 49 | Andrew Kros | LS | JR | 6'4" | 227 | Louisville, KY |
| 96 | Joseph Vinci | LS | SO | 6'4" | 231 | Westwood, MA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.89#92
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.58 / 0.37
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 2.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.1%#18
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 18.5% / 5.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.28#27 | 0.60#18 | 0.63#63 |
| Defense | -0.34#16 | -0.45#5 | 0.16#33 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3566th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0749th
- Offense success rate46%50th
- Defense success rate allowed38%50th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs57%76th
- Offense success — passing downs13%4th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs44%45th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%49th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.131st
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.339th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.166th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.310th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.831st
- Defense line yards allowed2.465th
- Offense highlight yards0.3523rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.7548th
- Offense stuff rate0.0398th
- Defense stuff rate0.2153rd
Third down
- Third down conversion38%34th
- Third down distance faced5.681st
- Third down conversion allowed38%45th
- Third down distance forced6.018th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0137th
- Net success rate — second half0.1768th
Drives
- Points per drive3.881st
- Points per drive allowed0.6787th
- Average starting field position214th
- Opponent starting field position3315th
- Available yards gained53%62nd
- Available yards allowed46%57th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed56%90th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.878th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.654th
- Three-and-out rate33%36th
- Three-and-outs forced22%45th
Roster
- Returning usage46%53rd
- Returning EPA17670th
- Team talent composite95396th
- Recruiting class rank5.097th
- Recruiting class points29997th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.281 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 49.1%
- Expected, given the spots
- 34.8%
- Over expected
- +14.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- -9
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Notre Dame is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Notre Dame in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 10-2 | 0-0 | 83% | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 14-2 | 0-0 | 88% | 13.2 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 77% | 10.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 1-0 | 69% | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 5-0 | 85% | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 10-2 | 9-1 | 83% | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 85% | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 12-1 | 0-0 | 92% | 10.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 77% | 9.2 | +0.8 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 10.7-1.3. Top-four bye in 41%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 4.3 points since preseason — won 41-13 over Wisconsin against an expected margin of +23, so +5.3 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 79% where the average FBS Independents team is 69%.
- The 2026 format is worth +2.8 points to them against the 2025 one.
Notre Dame’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at Navy41.7
- wk4at Purdue40.4
- wk13at Syracuse39.1
- wk12vs SMU38.9
- wk5at North Carolina37.6
- wk7at BYU33.8
Who to root for
Games Notre Dame is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk8Wisconsin over USC2.1
- wk9North Carolina over Miami2.1
- wk7Florida State over Miami2.0
- wk8UCF over BYU1.9
- wk7Wisconsin over UCLA1.8
- wk5TCU over BYU1.7
If not the playoff, then
Notre Dame is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Gator Bowl6.1%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl4.9%
- Holiday Bowl2.9%
- Sun Bowl1.7%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl1.1%
- Pinstripe Bowl0.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 15 have sent Notre Dame a player since 2010 — 35 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Notre Dame's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.