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Washington State

Washington State Cougars

Pac-12·0-2·
Elo
1601#37
SP+
-3.7#79
FPI
-4.3
AP
NR
Nextvs Duquesne · Wk 3
Talent #81 (630.3)Recruiting class #12891% production returning

Roster · 105 players

FR 34SO 30JR 25SR 16
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Julian DuggerQBSO6'3"207
12Caden PinnickQBSO6'0"192
16Gavin GrayQBFR6'3"193
17Owen EshelmanQBFR6'3"204
3Maxwell WoodsRBSO5'10"201
9Kirby VorheesRBJR5'11"215
20Leo PulalasiRBJR6'1"208
21CJ ToneyRBFR5'8"200
22Tre Hill Jr.RBFR5'10"203
24Ryan SalcedoRBFR5'9"193
25Marquez WimberlyRBFR5'9"186
0Tony FreemanWRSR5'8"174
1Daniel BloodWRSR5'11"190
4Darrius ClemonsWRSR6'3"217
6Jay PorterWRJR6'2"183
8Branden GanashamoorthyWRJR6'3"199
10Tank HawkinsWRSO5'10"180
13Ryan McKendryWRSO6'2"198
18Jevon WalkerWRJR6'3"193
80Noah WestbrookWRFR6'1"216
82Oliver BenderWRFR6'3"203
83Ethan MastellerWRFR6'5"218
84Caleb NorthcroftWRJR6'2"199
88Jordan DeesWRSO6'4"196
89Isaiah DockenWRFR6'5"219
23Trey LecknerTEJR6'3"243
27Hudson CedarlandTESR6'4"239
28Jack PedersenTESR6'5"248
81Peyton ReadTEFR6'6"237
86Beau BakerTESO6'6"251
87Cash LandauTEFR6'4"236
50Sone FalealoOLSO6'6"287
51Kalolo Ta'agaOLSO6'7"291
54Xavier ThorpeOLSO6'5"313
55Arion WilliamsOLFR6'2"283
64Jaylin CaldwellOLSR6'7"332
67Jonny LesterOLSR6'5"318
68Chris LinoOLSO6'8"316
69Kyle MartinOLJR6'3"310
70Dylan HildebrandOLFR6'4"301
71Ashton TrippOLJR6'7"307
72Gabe MillerOLSO6'4"302
73AJ OlerichOLFR6'6"278
74Maximus McCreeOLSR6'6"291
75Noah DunhamOLJR6'5"292
76Grayson CampbellOLFR6'5"291
77Nick BakkenOLSO6'5"305
78Jorden CunninghamOLFR6'5"298
79Turner BertrandOLFR6'7"308
5Michael HughesDEJR6'4"241
6Linus ZunkDESR6'6"264
9Matyus McLainDEJR6'4"263
18Barry MorrissetteDEFR6'7"261
44Luke WebbDEFR6'2"242
51Ben BeattyDESO6'2"265
56Fernando LecuonaDESO6'2"252
84Malachi WriceDESO6'4"248
94Eduwa OkundayeDESO6'2"234
96Jack ProcterDESR6'2"243
97Josh WedelDEFR6'5"272
93JaVon JosephDLFR6'3"255
34Damarjhe LewisDTSR6'3"332
52Kaden BeattyDTJR6'0"287
55Sione PasiDTSO5'11"288
58Malijah TuckerDTFR5'11"273
90Akio MartinsonDTJR6'2"304
92Ike OkaforDTFR6'3"279
95Balaam MillerDTJR6'4"289
98Jirah LeaupepeteleDTJR6'3"349
99Paul Hutson IIIDTSR6'1"258
8Nylan BrownLBJR6'0"246
10Lance McGeeLBFR6'0"218
12Carsten ReynoldsLBSO6'3"228
15DJ WarnerLBJR6'4"233
16Isaiah HungLBFR6'2"229
21Keith BrownLBSR6'1"244
29Erimus WrightLBFR6'0"215
33Gage JonesLBSO6'1"227
42Jack EllisonLBSO6'3"230
59Gavin FugateLBJR6'3"233
0CJ Solis-LumarCBSO6'1"197
2Jamarey SmithCBFR6'1"190
4Kai RapollaCBSR6'0"185
13Khamari TerrellCBSR6'1"187
22Jalil TuckerCBSR6'0"173
23Ishmael GibbsCBFR5'11"165
24Elmo WartsonCBJR6'3"180
35Nick NorrahCBFR6'2"199
26Chris Perry Jr.DBFR6'1"175
36Kenny Miller-TerryDBFR5'11"180
1Jeremiah BernardSJR6'0"196
3Jaylen ThomasSSO6'0"190
17Jshawn Frausto-RamosSJR6'0"183
19Kayo PatuSSO6'1"188
20Gaylon McNealSFR5'11"184
25Jack BalSJR6'2"191
28Kyle PetersonSSO6'0"198
30Bryson FlynnSFR6'2"204
31Trey RidleySSO6'1"194
38Jack StevensPKSO6'0"164
46Miguel ArenasPKSO6'2"206
32Max DeanPSO6'3"205
48Josh LijesenPSO6'0"231
41Sean BuresLSJR6'0"215
47Jeremy SousaLSJR6'0"212

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
8.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
29.0
scoring defense
Differential
-20.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
204.0#137
Yards / play
3.8#135
Passing yards / game
103.5#131
Rushing yards / game
100.5#121
First downs / game
14.0#129
3rd down %
9.5%#137
4th down %
50.0%#71
Time of possession
28:12#101
Defense
Yards allowed / game
444.5#126
Yards / play allowed
6.4#123
Pass yards allowed / game
230.0#100
Rush yards allowed / game
214.5#131
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#125
Sacks
0#134
Tackles for loss
6#120
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-2#108
Takeaways
2#75
Giveaways
4#105
Penalties / game
4.5#27
Penalty yards / game
37.5#26

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 7th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at hitting chunk plays.

Washington State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #7
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #14
    projected
  • Offensefirst and second down
    #23
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #130
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 8 to play
3.76.3
projected final record (now 02)
Exp. wins left
3.7
of 8 games
Bowl odds
9%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
78%
vs Colorado State
Toughest
26%
vs San Diego State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

012345678
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 4-6 (29%)Bowl eligible 9% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBCaden Pinnick
+1.6 EPA
WRDarrius Clemons, Daniel Blood +3
+1.4 EPA
TEJack Pedersen, Beau Baker
-0.7 EPA
RBLeo Pulalasi, Kirby Vorhees +1
-8.4 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
EPA +1.60.026/play62 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.061st#136
Def0.1539th#84
Explosiveness
Off0.982nd#135
Def1.2847th#74
Field position
Off74.989th#16
Def67.984th#23
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off1.671st#136
Def3.4147th#74
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 4
Margin -2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
Defense
Off · pass
-0.131st#136
Off · rush
-0.0215th#118

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.0216th#116
Def0.2118th#114
Passing
Off-0.131st#137
Def0.1759th#57

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.14#58
2nd-level / open-field
1.11 / 0.47
Power / stuff (off)
0.0% / 21.3%
Havoc — total (def)
10.0%#134
Havoc — front 7 / DB
6.4% / 3.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.05
Def-0.03
Pass downs
Off-0.09
Def0.57

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.08#72-0.13#123-0.28#135
Defense0.13#1170.02#460.94#132

Elo Trajectory

@WashingtonFinal
Elo rating 16191536-83 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.0312th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0847th
  • Offense success rate31%9th
  • Defense success rate allowed47%20th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs41%24th
  • Offense success — passing downs6%2nd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs55%9th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs20%73rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.015th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.173rd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.053rd
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs0.673rd

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.313th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.850th
  • Offense highlight yards0.5931st
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.8641st
  • Offense power success0.007th
  • Defense power success allowed0.5079th
  • Offense stuff rate0.317th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2574th

Third down

  • Third down conversion9%2nd
  • Third down distance faced8.410th
  • Third down conversion allowed31%66th
  • Third down distance forced9.389th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.1318th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.1612th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.9122nd
  • Points per drive allowed1.952nd
  • Average starting field position2426th
  • Opponent starting field position3316th
  • Available yards gained35%21st
  • Available yards allowed45%63rd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive64%15th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.423rd
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.457th
  • Three-and-out rate45%15th
  • Three-and-outs forced22%45th

Roster

  • Returning usage98%99th
  • Returning EPA22884th
  • Team talent composite63042nd
  • Recruiting class rank1287th
  • Recruiting class points1597th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

Offensive DNA

Run-first offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.060#136 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
-0.131#137
Rush EPA/play
-0.016#116
Explosiveness
0.975#135
Pts/opportunity
1.67#136
Success rate
29.8%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.116 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Coverage-heavy defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.147#84 · average
Havoc rate (total)
10.0%#134
Front-7 havoc
6.4%
DB havoc
3.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.277#74
Success rate allowed
46.9%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

8.5 PPG offense, 29.0 allowed — -20.5 margin/game
Points per game
8.5
Points allowed/game
29.0
Scoring margin/game
-20.5
Turnover margin
-2won 2 · lost 4
Production returning
91%
Talent rank (247)
#81

0-2 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE1thEXPLOSIVENESS2thFINISHING1thFIELD POS89thDEFENSE39thHAVOC3th50th100th
Offense
1th
Explosiveness
2th
Finishing
1th
Field Pos
89th
Defense
39th
Havoc
3th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+6.4
#47
Offense
-1.6
#77
Defense
-8.0
#23
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.911.89
Starting field positionown 24.2own 33.2
Available yards35.1%44.6%
Scoring opportunities63.6%77.8%
Points per opportunity1.432.43
Three-and-out rate45.5%22.2%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
50.9%
Expected, given the spots
58.6%
Over expected
-7.7
Fourth down vs peers
-20
Fourth down vs the model
-50
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Washington State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Washington State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Northern IllinoisSP+ -22.3
Off EPA/play -0.056Def EPA/play +0.137Elo 1266
Match
99%
Central MichiganSP+ -20.0
Off EPA/play -0.047Def EPA/play +0.131Elo 1259
Match
99%
Oklahoma StateSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play -0.018Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1212
Match
97%
LibertySP+ -7.2
Off EPA/play -0.027Def EPA/play +0.096Elo 1697
Match
96%
Eastern MichiganSP+ -15.6
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1353
Match
93%
UNLVSP+ +2.3
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.186Elo 1589
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 20152026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +8.2, #41 of 1282016: +6.6, #41 of 1282017: +6.8, #43 of 1302018: +8.7, #32 of 1302019: +0.7, #58 of 1302020: -16.2, #114 of 1242021: -1.2, #77 of 1302022: +0.3, #67 of 1312023: +4.8, #46 of 1332024: -2.8, #77 of 1342025: +10.0, #40 of 1362026: +6.4, #47 of 138
20152026
Now +6.4 · #47 of 138Best +10.0 in 2025Worst -16.2 in 2020

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-10-0
0%
0.0-0.0
20257-61-1
54%
7.9-0.9
20248-50-1
62%
8.9-0.9
20235-72-7
42%
5.7-0.7
20227-64-5
54%
5.5+1.5
20217-66-3
54%
5.6+1.4
20201-31-3
25%
0.7+0.3
20196-73-6
46%
8.0-2.0
201811-27-2
85%
9.9+1.1
20179-46-3
69%
8.0+1.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.6%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.1-6.1. Wins the Pac-12 in 9.1%.

If they finish with…

71%
1 loss
18%
2 losses
0.4%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 71%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.3 points since preseasonlost 10-24 to Washington against an expected margin of 23, so +8.5 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 18% where the average Pac-12 team is 15%.
  • The Pac-12 takes 0.22 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.6% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.

Washington State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk2at Kansas State2.3
  • wk4vs Arizona1.9
  • wk8vs Boise State1.8
  • wk9at San Diego State1.5
  • wk7at Oregon State1.1
  • wk12at Texas State1.0

Who to root for

Games Washington State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk2Boise State over Memphis0.3
  • wk11Rutgers over Nebraska0.3
  • wk5Charlotte over Memphis0.3
  • wk3Iowa State over Bowling Green0.3
  • wk4Old Dominion over James Madison0.3
  • wk10App State over Georgia State0.3
The full playoff picture →

Pac-12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.6-3.43 of 8 by title odds
9.1%
Wins the Pac-12
23%
Reaches the title game

The Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8Boise State at Washington State18.6
  • wk9Washington State at San Diego State14.4
  • wk7Washington State at Oregon State11.1
  • wk5Fresno State at Washington State10.7

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →

If not the playoff, then

41%
Bowl eligible
40%
Placed in a bowl
0.6%
In the playoff
59%
Season over in November

Washington State is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Sun Bowl12%
  • Holiday Bowl11%
  • Alamo Bowl7.9%
  • Las Vegas Bowl7.1%
  • Independence Bowl1.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Washington State a player since 2010 — 11 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Washington State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
CathedralIN40
Santa Margarita CatholicCA30
CrenshawCA20
St. LouisHI20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.