@ Tennessee · Wk 3Win prob 9%Model +20.4Schedule & Results
GASTGeorgia StateL17-31✗Wk 3@TENNTennessee+20.49%Wk 4@
ARSTArkansas State-1.253%Wk 6vs
JXSTJacksonville State-1.755%Wk 7@
MOSTMissouri State+6.734%Wk 8vs
LIBLiberty+2.743%Wk 9@
MTSUMiddle Tennessee-1.453%Wk 10vs
DELDelaware+6.834%Wk 11@
SHSUSam Houston-3.057%Wk 12vs
FIUFlorida International-7.668%Wk 13@
WKUWestern Kentucky+10.326%Team Leaders
Rickie CollinsPassing416 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Latrelle MurrellRushing100 yds · 2 TD · 8.3 avg
Javon RogersReceiving5 rec · 129 yds · 0 TD
Baron HopsonTackles12 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rickie Collins | QB | JR | 6'2" | 222 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 2 | Landon Varnes | QB | SO | 6'0" | 197 | Brandon, MS |
| 3 | Skyler Williams | QB | FR | 6'1" | 233 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 5 | Jamarcus Harrison | QB | FR | 6'3" | 202 | Gainesville, GA |
| 18 | Julian Lapene | QB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Buford, GA |
| 6 | Latrelle Murrell | RB | JR | 5'11" | 215 | Douglasville, GA |
| 20 | Celley Davis | RB | FR | 6'0" | 196 | Memphis, TN |
| 21 | Triston Morgan | RB | SR | 5'9" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 23 | Jonathan Mathis | RB | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Norcross, GA |
| 24 | Boogie Woods III | RB | SO | 5'10" | 197 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 25 | Joshua Troupe | RB | FR | 5'11" | 223 | Richmond Hill, GA |
| 26 | Devin Ingram | RB | SO | 5'8" | 188 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 0 | Keon Davis | WR | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Zion Booker | WR | SR | 5'10" | 186 | Charlotte, NC |
| 7 | Navelle Dean | WR | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Columbus, GA |
| 8 | Devaughn Slaughter | WR | SO | 6'1" | 187 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 9 | Davis Bryson | WR | SR | 5'9" | 190 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 11 | Brayden Munroe | WR | SR | 6'3" | 201 | Parker, CO |
| 12 | Jet Tabb | WR | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Hoover, AL |
| 13 | Dylan Gary | WR | JR | 6'3" | 215 | Suwanee, GA |
| 15 | Javon Rogers | WR | JR | 6'0" | 170 | Montevallo, AL |
| 16 | Dylan Green | WR | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 48 | Colt Muschara | WR | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Cumming, GA |
| 80 | Josh Williamson | WR | SR | 5'7" | 158 | Snellville, GA |
| 81 | Erik Ronning | WR | SO | 5'11" | 187 | Suwanee, GA |
| 85 | Kayden Miller | WR | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 17 | Gerard Bullock Jr. | TE | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Nashville, TN |
| 19 | Reed Jesiolowski | TE | JR | 6'3" | 223 | Brandon, MS |
| 82 | Darren Pinkard | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Jefferson, GA |
| 83 | Spencer Wise | TE | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Atlanta, GA |
| 87 | Chase Tatum | TE | FR | 6'3" | 264 | Cartersville, GA |
| 88 | Jamari Harrold | TE | SO | 6'2" | 234 | Milwaukee, WI |
| 50 | Anthony Cater Jr. | OL | FR | 6'3" | 292 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 51 | Mike Wallace Jr. | OL | SO | 6'2" | 323 | Tupelo, MS |
| 52 | Havik Pettigrew | OL | SR | 6'0" | 286 | Acworth, GA |
| 54 | Eseosa Aigbokhae | OL | FR | 6'5" | 312 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 55 | Mateo Guevara | OL | SR | 6'4" | 317 | Flowery Branch, GA |
| 56 | JaDarious Lee | OL | SR | 6'4" | 302 | Nashville, TN |
| 58 | Daniel Cepicky | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Culleoka, TN |
| 59 | Jamiel Williams | OL | FR | 6'4" | 286 | Rome, GA |
| 61 | Yusuf Okanlawon | OL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Lithia Springs, GA |
| 62 | Darius Neals | OL | SO | 6'4" | 339 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 66 | Luke Duska | OL | SR | 6'5" | 325 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 69 | Chase Stevens | OL | SO | 6'3" | 318 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 70 | Chase Richardson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Brunswick, GA |
| 71 | ZaMario Woodgett | OL | FR | 6'5" | 301 | Smyrna, GA |
| 72 | Haston Crawford | OL | FR | 6'6" | 287 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 73 | Aidan Williams | OL | SR | 6'5" | 290 | Acworth, GA |
| 75 | Precious Ekeh | OL | JR | 6'3" | 325 | Elmont, NY |
| 76 | Nikola Milovac | OL | JR | 6'6" | 317 | Indija |
| 77 | Enrico Maghelli | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Cancun |
| 6 | Marcus Patterson | DL | SR | 6'3" | 264 | Crestview, FL |
| 15 | Devin Morgan | DL | SR | 6'1" | 283 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 53 | AJ Miller | DL | JR | 6'3" | 273 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 55 | Ugonna Nwoha | DL | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Austell, GA |
| 58 | Khary Beler | DL | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Laveen, AZ |
| 65 | Nick Thorner | DL | FR | 6'4" | 260 | Marietta, GA |
| 79 | Marlo East Jr. | DL | JR | 6'2" | 274 | Tennille, GA |
| 90 | Jonathan Keys | DL | SO | 6'0" | 285 | Laurel, MS |
| 91 | Zakir Abdul-Salaam | DL | FR | 6'3" | 246 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 92 | Jackson Cooper | DL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 95 | Connor Coxwell | DL | FR | 6'5" | 245 | Suwanee, GA |
| 96 | Jaiden Grimes | DL | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Marietta, GA |
| 97 | Jaiden Crawford | DL | SR | 6'1" | 315 | Stockton, CA |
| 99 | Nasir Smith | DL | SO | 6'2" | 272 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 1 | Donovan Westmoreland | LB | JR | 6'1" | 234 | Griffin, GA |
| 8 | Corey Kelly | LB | JR | 6'3" | 238 | Houston, TX |
| 11 | Tywon Christopher | LB | SO | 6'0" | 221 | Thomasville, GA |
| 16 | Alfred Thomas | LB | JR | 6'1" | 230 | Orlando, FL |
| 18 | Josh Anglin | LB | JR | 5'11" | 220 | Buford, GA |
| 28 | Karson Moss | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Opelika, AL |
| 31 | Kai Russell | LB | SR | 6'1" | 256 | Charlotte, NC |
| 33 | Montra Sanford | LB | JR | 6'4" | 260 | Charleston, MS |
| 36 | Taiwo Ogundele | LB | FR | 6'0" | 211 | Canton, GA |
| 40 | Amarion Jones | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Atlanta, GA |
| 41 | Byron Jackson | LB | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 42 | Omari Stephenson | LB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Boston, GA |
| 44 | Baron Hopson | LB | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Leesburg, GA |
| 46 | Jeremy Greaves Jr. | LB | SR | 6'1" | 245 | Clewiston, FL |
| 47 | Charlie Robinson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Monroe, LA |
| 56 | Zay Wilson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Jonesboro, AR |
| 0 | Perry Fisher | DB | SR | 6'3" | 202 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 2 | Tony Williams Jr. | DB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Miami, FL |
| 3 | Jecari Bryson | DB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 4 | Alexander Ford | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Antioch, TN |
| 5 | Tay'vion Lawson | DB | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 7 | Luke Evans | DB | JR | 6'2" | 188 | Coral Springs, FL |
| 9 | Isaac Paul | DB | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Panama City, FL |
| 10 | Ethan Tookes | DB | JR | 6'2" | 197 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 12 | Kody Jones | DB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Memphis, TN |
| 13 | Cam Miller | DB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Memphis, TN |
| 14 | Kaleb Gray | DB | JR | 6'1" | 183 | Galveston, TX |
| 20 | Tyler Hallum | DB | SR | 6'0" | 187 | Marietta, GA |
| 21 | Ja'Lyen Judson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Oxford, MS |
| 21 | Antonio Ferebee II | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Atlanta, GA |
| 22 | Preston Clemmer | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 27 | Jordan Holmes | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Pike Road, AL |
| 30 | Phillip Cato | DB | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Grosse Pointe Farms, MI |
| 32 | Jaden Martin-Burgess | DB | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Miami, FL |
| 35 | Brody Bond | DB | FR | 5'10" | 188 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 37 | CJ Outland III | DB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Stockbridge, GA |
| 38 | Maliki Wright | DB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Orlando, FL |
| 49 | EB Bailey | DB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 39 | Leo Attard | PK | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Milton, GA |
| 89 | Daniel Kinney | PK | FR | 5'11" | 211 | Knoxville, TN |
| 34 | Matt McKenzie | P | SR | 6'0" | 219 | Sydney, NSW |
| 98 | Zechariah Duke | P | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Athens, GA |
| 43 | Ben Blanton | LS | JR | 5'11" | 215 | Cumming, GA |
| 45 | Brock Walters | LS | JR | 6'1" | 253 | Kailua Kona, HI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Kennesaw State is in year 2 under Jerry Mack. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 113th at defending the run.
Kennesaw State has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#118projected
- Defenserunning it#113projected
- Defensefirst and second down#113projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.31#39
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.54 / 2.54
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 26.1%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.6%#131
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.9% / 1.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.36#12 | 0.22#69 | 0.38#95 |
| Defense | -0.01#80 | 0.35#112 | 0.25#51 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2351st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0364th
- Offense success rate48%67th
- Defense success rate allowed33%76th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs60%88th
- Offense success — passing downs22%13th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs37%74th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs28%45th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.128th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.086th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9633rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.378th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.045th
- Defense line yards allowed2.559th
- Offense highlight yards1.463rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5067th
- Offense power success0.8981st
- Defense power success allowed0.9210th
- Offense stuff rate0.2511th
- Defense stuff rate0.2258th
Third down
- Third down conversion43%53rd
- Third down distance faced7.231st
- Third down conversion allowed24%90th
- Third down distance forced7.454th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1361st
- Net success rate — second half0.2189th
Drives
- Points per drive1.740th
- Points per drive allowed3.026th
- Average starting field position237th
- Opponent starting field position3232nd
- Available yards gained42%31st
- Available yards allowed62%20th
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%29th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.443rd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.047th
- Three-and-out rate20%64th
- Three-and-outs forced20%41st
CORE
- CORE offense-3.428th
- CORE defense3.528th
- CORE overall-6.930th
Roster
- Returning usage5%4th
- Returning EPA23.110th
- Team talent composite5034th
- Recruiting class rank12013th
- Recruiting class points16313th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.188 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 63.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 59.1%
- Over expected
- +4.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- -1
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Kennesaw State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Kennesaw State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 10-4 | 7-1 | 71% | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 17% | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 33% | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 2022 | 5-6 | 0-4 | 45% | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 7-0 | 85% | 0.0 | +11.0 |
| 2020 | 4-1 | 2-1 | 80% | — | — |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 6-1 | 79% | 0.8 | +10.2 |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 5-0 | 85% | 0.1 | +10.9 |
| 2017 | 12-2 | 5-0 | 86% | — | — |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.8-7.3. Wins the Conference USA in 4.2%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.4 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 0.6% where the average Conference USA team is 1.1%.
- The Conference USA takes 0.03 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Kennesaw State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk8vs Liberty0.0
- wk4at Arkansas State0.0
- wk10vs Delaware0.0
- wk13at Western Kentucky0.0
- wk12vs Florida International0.0
- wk7at Missouri State0.0
Who to root for
Games Kennesaw State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk10Southern Miss over James Madison0.0
- wk11Duke over Miami0.0
- wk4Sacramento State over Massachusetts0.0
- wk11Rutgers over Nebraska0.0
- wk4UL Monroe over Florida Atlantic0.0
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.0
Conference USA
0-0 in league play, projected 3.4-4.67 of 10 by title oddsThe Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Liberty at Kennesaw State10.9
- wk3Kennesaw State at Tennessee9.0
- wk10Delaware at Kennesaw State8.3
- wk12Florida International at Kennesaw State7.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →
If not the playoff, then
Kennesaw State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- New Orleans Bowl8.2%
- Hawai'i Bowl7.2%
- 68 Ventures Bowl7.1%
- Xbox Bowl3.9%
- Armed Forces Bowl3.6%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent Kennesaw State a player since 2010 — 15 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Kennesaw State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.