vs Western Kentucky · Wk 3Win prob 98%Model -31.0Schedule & Results
UNTNorth TexasW52-16✓Wk 2vsHOWAHowardW55-0✓Wk 3vsWKUWestern Kentucky-31.098%Wk 4vs
NUNorthwestern-18.290%Wk 5@
RUTGRutgers-26.396%Wk 6@
NEBNebraska-19.190%Wk 7vs
OSUOhio State-2.657%Wk 8@
MICHMichigan-17.088%Wk 9vs
MINNMinnesota-21.492%Wk 11vs
USCUSC-3.160%Wk 12@
WASHWashington-16.788%Wk 13vs
PURPurdue-28.998%Team Leaders
Josh HooverPassing376 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
Turbo RichardRushing166 yds · 3 TD · 6.4 avg
Charlie BeckerReceiving7 rec · 145 yds · 5 TD
Isaiah JonesTackles17 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 104 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grant Wilson | QB | SR | 6'3" | 218 | Arlington, VA |
| 10 | Josh Hoover | QB | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Heath, TX |
| 12 | Jacob Bell | QB | FR | 6'2" | 208 | Naperville, IL |
| 14 | Maverick Geske | QB | FR | 6'0" | 187 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 15 | Tyler Cherry | QB | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Greenwood, IN |
| 1 | Turbo Richard | RB | JR | 5'9" | 204 | Charlotte, NC |
| 20 | Sean Cuono | RB | FR | 5'10" | 193 | Clearwater, FL |
| 22 | Jayreon Campbell | RB | FR | 5'8" | 205 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 28 | Khobie Martin | RB | SO | 6'0" | 204 | Fishers, IN |
| 29 | Lee Beebe Jr. | RB | SR | 5'10" | 218 | Montgomery, AL |
| 3 | Kortez Rupert | WR | FR | 5'11" | 163 | East Saint Louis, IL |
| 4 | Davion Chandler | WR | SO | 5'11" | 181 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 6 | Lebron Bond | WR | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Norfolk, VA |
| 7 | Shazz Preston | WR | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Saint James, LA |
| 8 | Tyler Morris | WR | SR | 5'11" | 186 | Bolingbrook, IL |
| 9 | Lavar Keys | WR | FR | 5'9" | 175 | Hyattstown, MD |
| 11 | Nick Marsh | WR | JR | 6'3" | 213 | Detroit, MI |
| 17 | Jackson Wasserstrom | WR | SR | 5'11" | 177 | Westfield, IN |
| 26 | Cade Kaiser | WR | FR | 6'5" | 214 | Batesville, IN |
| 80 | Charlie Becker | WR | JR | 6'4" | 207 | Nashville, TN |
| 81 | Jaidon Van Pelt | WR | FR | 5'11" | 178 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 82 | Myles Kendrick | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 83 | Hunter Stroud | WR | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Martinsville, IN |
| 86 | Bruno Massel IV | WR | FR | 5'11" | 196 | Elmhurst, IL |
| 18 | Parker Elmore | TE | FR | 6'4" | 239 | Columbus, IN |
| 39 | Trevor Gibbs | TE | FR | 6'2" | 241 | Crown Point, IN |
| 84 | Blake Thiry | TE | FR | 6'4" | 236 | Prairie Du Chien, WI |
| 85 | Andrew Barker | TE | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Kokomo, IN |
| 87 | PJ MacFarlane | TE | FR | 6'5" | 238 | Liberty Township, OH |
| 88 | Brock Schott | TE | FR | 6'3" | 241 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 56 | Joe Brunner | OL | SR | 6'7" | 313 | Whitefish Bay, WI |
| 60 | CJ Scifres | OL | FR | 6'5" | 312 | Bargersville, IN |
| 61 | Baylor Wilkin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 289 | Van Buren, OH |
| 62 | Drew Evans | OL | SR | 6'4" | 307 | Fort Atkinson, WI |
| 64 | Chance Johnson | OL | FR | 6'5" | 307 | Jeffersonville, IN |
| 65 | Carter Smith | OL | SR | 6'5" | 313 | Powell, OH |
| 66 | Evan Parker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 299 | Carmel, IN |
| 70 | Austin Leibfried | OL | SO | 6'6" | 300 | Mount Horeb, WI |
| 71 | Ben Novak | OL | FR | 6'6" | 317 | Crown Point, IN |
| 72 | Adedamola Ajani | OL | SO | 6'4" | 308 | Speedway, IN |
| 73 | Luke Graham | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Pendleton, IN |
| 74 | Bray Lynch | OL | SR | 6'5" | 298 | Austin, TX |
| 75 | Sam Simpson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 304 | River Falls, WI |
| 76 | Kenton Mondeau | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Eau Claire, WI |
| 77 | Matt Marek | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Orland Park, IL |
| 78 | Prescott Horvath | OL | FR | 6'8" | 310 | Mishawaka, IN |
| 7 | Chiddi Obiazor | DL | JR | 6'5" | 279 | Eden Prairie, MN |
| 8 | Josh Burnham | DL | SR | 6'4" | 255 | Traverse City, MI |
| 8 | Stephen Daley | DL | SR | 6'1" | 273 | Winchester, VA |
| 12 | Tobi Osunsanmi | DL | SR | 6'2" | 251 | Wichita, KS |
| 17 | Daniel Ndukwe | DL | JR | 6'3" | 238 | Lithonia, GA |
| 40 | Quentin Clark | DL | SO | 6'1" | 221 | Dexter, GA |
| 41 | Keishaun Calhoun | DL | FR | 6'2" | 265 | Groveport, OH |
| 42 | Kevontay Hugan | DL | FR | 6'1" | 227 | Sarasota, FL |
| 50 | Jhrevious Hall | DL | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Columbia, TN |
| 55 | Rodney White | DL | FR | 6'1" | 296 | Baltimore, MD |
| 90 | Joe Hjelle | DL | SR | 6'3" | 318 | Decorah, IA |
| 91 | Blake Smythe | DL | FR | 6'2" | 283 | Trafalgar, IN |
| 92 | Gabe Hill | DL | FR | 6'1" | 289 | Naperville, IL |
| 93 | Ronelle Johnson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 266 | Kansas City, MO |
| 94 | Kyler Garcia | DL | FR | 6'4" | 291 | Nashville, TN |
| 95 | Tyrique Tucker | DL | SR | 6'0" | 307 | Norfolk, VA |
| 97 | Mario Landino | DL | JR | 6'4" | 288 | Macungie, PA |
| 98 | Cam McHaney | DL | FR | 6'1" | 286 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 99 | Tyrone Burrus Jr. | DL | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 5 | Rolijah Hardy | LB | JR | 5'11" | 227 | Lakeland, FL |
| 14 | Kaiden Turner | LB | SR | 6'0" | 228 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 21 | Jacob Savage | LB | FR | 6'0" | 222 | Union, KY |
| 23 | Henry Ohlinger | LB | FR | 6'1" | 224 | Columbus, OH |
| 24 | Ja'Dyn Williams | LB | FR | 6'1" | 211 | Massillon, OH |
| 30 | PJ Nelson | LB | FR | 6'1" | 219 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 34 | Jeff Utzinger | LB | SR | 6'3" | 232 | Carmel, IN |
| 38 | Kaden McConnell | LB | SO | 6'2" | 228 | Greenwood, IN |
| 44 | Amari Kamara | LB | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Ashburn, VA |
| 46 | Isaiah Jones | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | London, OH |
| 52 | Clayton Allen | LB | JR | 6'2" | 209 | Fishers, IN |
| 0 | Carson Williams | DB | SO | 5'11" | 181 | Houston, TX |
| 1 | Amare Ferrell | DB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Lake City, FL |
| 2 | Byron Baldwin Jr. | DB | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Baltimore, MD |
| 3 | Jaylen Bell | DB | SO | 5'10" | 169 | Union, NJ |
| 4 | A.J. Harris | DB | SR | 6'1" | 189 | Phenix City, AL |
| 6 | Preston Zachman | DB | SR | 6'2" | 209 | Elysburg, PA |
| 9 | Seaonta Stewart Jr. | DB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 10 | Ryland Gandy | DB | SR | 6'0" | 189 | Buford, GA |
| 13 | Quan Sanks | DB | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Columbus, GA |
| 16 | Jamar Owens | DB | FR | 6'0" | 172 | Jonesboro, GA |
| 19 | Zacharey Smith | DB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Union City, GA |
| 22 | Jamari Sharpe | DB | SR | 6'1" | 188 | Miami, FL |
| 25 | D'Montae Tims | DB | FR | 6'0" | 202 | Tampa, FL |
| 27 | Kasmir Hicks | DB | FR | 5'11" | 177 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 31 | Anthony Chung | DB | JR | 6'1" | 199 | Mequon, WI |
| 33 | Garrett Reese | DB | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Chicago, IL |
| 36 | Clay Conner | DB | JR | 6'4" | 206 | Boonville, IN |
| 37 | Heath Kizer | DB | SO | 6'1" | 203 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 45 | Lincoln Murff | DB | JR | 5'10" | 186 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 15 | Nico Radicic | PK | JR | 5'11" | 188 | Coppell, TX |
| 35 | Paddy McAteer | PK | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Mullaghbawn |
| 43 | Bryce Taylor | PK | FR | 5'10" | 189 | Bloomington, IN |
| 90 | Josh Placzek | PK | SO | 5'11" | 193 | Carmel, IN |
| 93 | Quinn Warren | PK | JR | 6'6" | 214 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 19 | Billy Gowers | P | SO | 6'2" | 207 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 45 | Sam Lindsey | LS | JR | 6'0" | 188 | Lilburn, GA |
| 47 | Jackson Tolle | LS | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Fishers, IN |
| 49 | Drew Clausen | LS | SR | 6'6" | 250 | Grimes, IA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Indiana is in year 3 under Curt Cignetti, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 2nd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 133rd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 111th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Indiana has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Defenserunning it#4projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#133projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#111projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.47#36
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.28 / 0.92
- Power / stuff (off)
- 83.3% / 11.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 21.2%#34
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 16.9% / 4.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.25#30 | 0.50#27 | 1.95#3 |
| Defense | -0.09#54 | -0.07#36 | 0.28#56 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.6596th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1336th
- Offense success rate52%70th
- Defense success rate allowed35%58th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs52%53rd
- Offense success — passing downs53%91st
- Defense success allowed — standard downs36%72nd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs32%38th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.696th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.510th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.277th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.692nd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.520th
- Defense line yards allowed3.035th
- Offense highlight yards1.567th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5955th
- Offense power success0.8063rd
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.1367th
- Defense stuff rate0.1423rd
Third down
- Third down conversion56%77th
- Third down distance faced5.484th
- Third down conversion allowed40%40th
- Third down distance forced6.735th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1458th
- Net success rate — second half0.1158th
Drives
- Points per drive5.898th
- Points per drive allowed1.855th
- Average starting field position4699th
- Opponent starting field position2666th
- Available yards gained78%92nd
- Available yards allowed54%34th
- Scoring opportunities per drive89%65th
- Scoring opportunities allowed67%84th
- Points per scoring opportunity6.599th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.751st
- Three-and-out rate11%81st
- Three-and-outs forced11%23rd
Roster
- Returning usage12%8th
- Returning EPA97.948th
- Team talent composite73573rd
- Recruiting class rank29.080th
- Recruiting class points22680th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 1.157 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 36.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 43.4%
- Over expected
- -6.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- -2
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Indiana is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Indiana in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 16-0 | 9-0 | 100% | 12.9 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 10.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 25% | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 1.7 | +2.3 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 0-9 | 17% | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | 6-2 | 6-1 | 75% | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 8.1 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 5.6 | -0.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 10.2-2.2. Top-four bye in 21%. Wins the Big Ten in 21%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 5.3 points since preseason — won 52-16 over North Texas against an expected margin of +40, so −3.8 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 3.3% where the average Big Ten team is 11%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Indiana’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11vs USC43.4
- wk7vs Ohio State42.7
- wk8at Michigan40.8
- wk12at Washington40.6
- wk4vs Northwestern40.4
- wk9vs Minnesota39.9
Who to root for
Games Indiana is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Mississippi State over LSU2.6
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State2.5
- wk12Nebraska over Ohio State2.4
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State2.4
- wk4Delaware over Virginia2.2
- wk10Oregon over Ohio State2.1
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 7.0-2.02 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Ohio State at Indiana30.8
- wk11USC at Indiana19.3
- wk12Indiana at Washington19.0
- wk13Purdue at Indiana18.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Indiana is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Citrus Bowl12%
- ReliaQuest Bowl9.5%
- Music City Bowl7.3%
- Las Vegas Bowl5.3%
- Pinstripe Bowl3.6%
- Rate Bowl2.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Indiana a player since 2010 — 18 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Indiana's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.