@ Wisconsin · Wk 3Win prob 21%Model +13.1Schedule & Results
SACSacramento StateW28-17✗Wk 1vs
SJSUSan José StateL21-27✗Wk 2@
MSUMichigan StateL7-35✓Wk 3@WISWisconsin+13.121%Wk 4vsLINDLindenwoodWk 5@
MASSMassachusetts-21.292%Wk 6@
AKRAkron+4.041%Wk 7vs
TOLToledo0.050%Wk 8@
OHIOOhio+8.031%Wk 10vs
CMUCentral Michigan-5.463%Wk 12@
WMUWestern Michigan+12.323%Wk 13vs
KENTKent State-12.778%Team Leaders
Noah KimPassing571 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Amareon BlueRushing176 yds · 1 TD · 5.7 avg
Harold MackReceiving14 rec · 135 yds · 1 TD
Zach MowchanTackles30 tackles · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Eastern Michigan
All news →Eastern Michigan's chunk plays are Michigan State's soft spot
18 of San José State's 27 points came from Luke Weaver
Eastern Michigan lost 26 players and still returns more
Noah Kim was responsible for 18 of Eastern Michigan's 28 points
Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Kim | QB | SR | 6'2" | 186 | Centreville, VA |
| 10 | Brogan McCaughey | QB | SR | 6'1" | 212 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 12 | Jace Stuckey | QB | JR | 6'2" | 197 | Fairland, IN |
| 13 | Nick Kinsey | QB | FR | 6'2" | 198 | Akron, OH |
| 19 | Bryce Button | QB | SO | 6'2" | 207 | Bowling Green, KY |
| 15 | Amareon Blue | RB | SO | 5'6" | 195 | Dallas, NC |
| 21 | Malachi James | RB | JR | 5'11" | 202 | Willingboro, NJ |
| 22 | Decorie Johnson | RB | FR | 6'1" | 218 | Orlando, FL |
| 24 | Joey Mattord | RB | SR | 6'0" | 192 | Hartland, MI |
| 26 | Nazir Jones-Davis | RB | FR | 6'0" | 214 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 27 | XaVior Tyus | RB | JR | 5'9" | 195 | Portage, MI |
| 28 | Braydon Bennett | RB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Greenville, SC |
| 2 | Nick Devereaux | WR | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Troy, MI |
| 3 | Benson Prosper | WR | SR | 5'10" | 186 | Hollywood, FL |
| 5 | Harold Mack | WR | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 11 | Antonio Floyd | WR | JR | 6'2" | 182 | Atlanta, GA |
| 18 | Mekhi Fox | WR | SR | 6'1" | 194 | Pasadena, CA |
| 25 | Quinn Fracassi | WR | SR | 5'11" | 162 | Howell, MI |
| 80 | Shawn Fishwick | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Cedarville, OH |
| 82 | Nate Lyman | WR | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Kings Mills, OH |
| 83 | Bacori Minner | WR | FR | 6'1" | 160 | Duluth, GA |
| 84 | JT Beasley | WR | JR | 6'3" | 198 | Saltillo, MS |
| 85 | Kozy Isaac | WR | SO | 5'11" | 178 | Tampa, FL |
| 86 | Dalin Wilkins | WR | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Dayton, OH |
| 87 | CJ Miller | WR | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 89 | Carl Jean-Bart | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Lake Alfred, FL |
| 9 | Joshua Long | TE | JR | 6'5" | 242 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 14 | Armaad Sharp | TE | FR | 6'2" | 235 | East St. Louis, IL |
| 16 | Jackson Holt | TE | SR | 6'5" | 248 | Oakdale, CA |
| 43 | Payton Kokaly | TE | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Saginaw, MI |
| 44 | Adon Turner | TE | SR | 6'3" | 230 | Chico, CA |
| 48 | Nathan Piggott | TE | FR | 6'5" | 230 | Troy, MI |
| 49 | Brady Shelton | TE | FR | 6'5" | 232 | Brighton, MI |
| 88 | Tanner Lemaster | TE | SR | 6'6" | 245 | Washington Court House, OH |
| 50 | Kevin Wojciechowski | OL | SO | 6'4" | 307 | Oak Creek, WI |
| 52 | Richardo Wourman | OL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Livonia, MI |
| 54 | Nathan Henry | OL | SR | 6'1" | 300 | Aurora, IL |
| 55 | Guzzy Kayed | OL | JR | 6'3" | 316 | Novi, MI |
| 56 | Chad Troxler | OL | SO | 6'3" | 308 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 59 | Andrew Trahin | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 62 | Adham Abouraya | OL | JR | 6'5" | 306 | Downingtown, PA |
| 65 | Nicholas Gallegos | OL | SR | 6'3" | 294 | Naperville, IL |
| 66 | Joshua Anderson | OL | SR | 6'4" | 328 | Florissant, MO |
| 68 | Tyler McMillan | OL | SR | 6'5" | 325 | Detroit, MI |
| 70 | Samuel Adjin | OL | FR | 6'3" | 292 | La Pocatière, PQ |
| 71 | Tyler Brumfield | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Salem, UT |
| 72 | Cole Dellinger | OL | SR | 6'2" | 295 | Clarkston, MI |
| 74 | Carter Miculka | OL | FR | 6'5" | 280 | Corunna, MI |
| 75 | Elijha Payne | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 76 | Nily Taylor | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Columbus, OH |
| 77 | Cole Powell | OL | SO | 6'6" | 295 | Erie, CO |
| 78 | Dennis Strey Jr. | OL | SR | 6'7" | 312 | Paw Paw, MI |
| 79 | Jackson Higgins | OL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Port Huron, MI |
| 5 | Makhi Gilbert | DL | SR | 6'3" | 282 | Phenix City, AL |
| 33 | Carter Evans | DL | SR | 6'4" | 264 | Crystal Lake, IL |
| 43 | Marvell Eggleston | DL | JR | 6'5" | 225 | Detroit, MI |
| 44 | Mark Debiak | DL | JR | 6'3" | 262 | Kansas City, KS |
| 50 | CJ McCoy | DL | FR | 6'2" | 287 | Mascotte, FL |
| 53 | Alijah Lacey | DL | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Savannah, GA |
| 54 | Quincy Byas | DL | SO | 6'1" | 230 | St. Louis, MO |
| 55 | Javon Thomas | DL | JR | 6'4" | 280 | East Lansing, MI |
| 56 | RJ Alphonse | DL | FR | 6'2" | 237 | Lake Worth, FL |
| 58 | Peyton Christian | DL | SR | 5'11" | 300 | Kilgore, TX |
| 64 | Noah Patterson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 295 | South Point, OH |
| 85 | Jefferson Adam | DL | SR | 6'2" | 260 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 88 | Ronn Hardin | DL | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Cleveland, OH |
| 90 | Hector Gonzalez | DL | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Monterrey |
| 91 | Reggie Gardner | DL | JR | 5'11" | 288 | Southfield, MI |
| 93 | Owen Edlen | DL | FR | 6'3" | 236 | Valparaiso, IN |
| 94 | Brandon Simmons Jr. | DL | FR | 6'0" | 280 | Glassboro, NJ |
| 95 | Milan Colvin | DL | SO | 6'0" | 306 | Wichita, KS |
| 96 | Antoniyo Smith | DL | SO | 6'3" | 278 | Atlanta, GA |
| 97 | Jahbarri Frost | DL | FR | 6'1" | 306 | Louisville, KY |
| 98 | Joseph Oluwayemi | DL | SR | 6'1" | 310 | Dallas, TX |
| 99 | Warren-Stevens Tayou | DL | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Inglewood, CA |
| 3 | Barry Manning | LB | SR | 6'1" | 212 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 11 | Zach Mowchan | LB | SR | 6'2" | 224 | Dillsburg, PA |
| 26 | Solomon Bell | LB | SR | 5'9" | 200 | — |
| 32 | Kijon Braxton | LB | FR | 6'2" | 217 | Fairburn, GA |
| 36 | Colin Main | LB | JR | 6'2" | 218 | Frankenmuth, MI |
| 40 | Bryce Eliuk | LB | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Linden, MI |
| 42 | Jonah Flowers | LB | JR | 5'11" | 213 | Surprise, AZ |
| 45 | Kadin Bailey | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Jefferson, GA |
| 46 | Noah Knigga | LB | SO | 6'1" | 221 | Lawrenceburg, IN |
| 51 | Elgin McDuffey | LB | JR | 6'0" | 232 | Jackson, MS |
| 57 | Aaron Kearse | LB | FR | 5'11" | 213 | Americus, GA |
| 4 | Juan Salas | DB | SR | 5'8" | 181 | Eastvale, CA |
| 6 | Bryce Llewellyn | DB | SR | 5'11" | 207 | McCordsville, IN |
| 7 | Jordan Toney | DB | JR | 6'4" | 195 | Decatur, GA |
| 8 | Jaivian Norman | DB | SR | 5'9" | 185 | Springfield, OH |
| 9 | Davion Williams | DB | SR | 5'11" | 183 | Frostproof, FL |
| 10 | Tylan Boykin | DB | SO | 6'1" | 176 | Akron, OH |
| 13 | Jason Marshall | DB | SR | 6'3" | 201 | Trenton, MI |
| 16 | Caleb Coley | DB | SR | 6'0" | 162 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 17 | Caleb Dobbs | DB | JR | 6'0" | 162 | Cocoa, FL |
| 18 | Dior Boyd | DB | SR | 5'10" | 167 | Wilmington, DE |
| 19 | Jonnie Carter | DB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Hollywood, FL |
| 20 | Ray Hester | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Detroit, MI |
| 23 | Eli Lovett | DB | JR | 6'0" | 198 | Huber Heights, OH |
| 24 | Horace Glenn III | DB | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Boynton Beach, FL |
| 25 | Rayquan Adkins | DB | JR | 5'11" | 178 | Miami, FL |
| 27 | Marty Collins | DB | FR | 5'10" | 192 | Millville, NJ |
| 28 | Davontey Oliver | DB | FR | 6'1" | 172 | Boynton Beach, FL |
| 29 | Donmiel Rogers | DB | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 31 | Antonio Solares-Vitti | DB | FR | 6'4" | 208 | Dearborn, MI |
| 35 | Jabari Monds | DB | FR | 5'7" | 157 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 33 | Adam Samaha | PK | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 37 | Nathan Dibert | PK | SR | 5'10" | 216 | Hartland, MI |
| 46 | Rudy Kessinger | PK | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Columbus, OH |
| 38 | Van Krisiloff | P | FR | 5'11" | 167 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 39 | Daniel Hull | P | JR | 5'9" | 193 | Columbia, MO |
| 41 | Reeves Taylor | LS | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Dexter, MI |
| 42 | Jack Kautz | LS | SR | 5'11" | 206 | Sterling Heights, MI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 3 games in
Eastern Michigan throws it: Chris Creighton's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 115th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Eastern Michigan has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.13#120 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve20%#115 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air36%#110 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 8 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.82#101
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.00 / 1.26
- Power / stuff (off)
- 81.3% / 16.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 19.1%#41
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.8% / 9.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.01#94 | -0.10#119 | 0.22#118 |
| Defense | -0.05#67 | -0.03#36 | 0.66#112 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0410th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1238th
- Offense success rate38%23rd
- Defense success rate allowed41%35th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs46%35th
- Offense success — passing downs21%9th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%31st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs30%42nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.119th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.341st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.173rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.11st
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.929th
- Defense line yards allowed2.565th
- Offense highlight yards1.361st
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.228th
- Offense power success0.8269th
- Defense power success allowed0.7444th
- Offense stuff rate0.1755th
- Defense stuff rate0.2676th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%21st
- Third down distance faced7.428th
- Third down conversion allowed40%42nd
- Third down distance forced7.558th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1058th
- Net success rate — second half-0.222nd
Drives
- Points per drive1.222nd
- Points per drive allowed2.250th
- Average starting field position2523rd
- Opponent starting field position3227th
- Available yards gained34%19th
- Available yards allowed42%71st
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%21st
- Scoring opportunities allowed74%65th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.030th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.043rd
- Three-and-out rate36%27th
- Three-and-outs forced32%70th
CORE
- CORE offense-10.08th
- CORE defense-0.5250th
- CORE overall-9.523rd
Roster
- Returning usage59%71st
- Returning EPA22984th
- Team talent composite58126th
- Recruiting class rank10623rd
- Recruiting class points17523rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.063 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-2 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 36 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 58.7%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.6%
- Over expected
- +8.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -7
- Fourth down vs the model
- -38
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Eastern Michigan is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Eastern Michigan in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 50% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 3.2 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 33% | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.5 | -0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-2 so far, projected to finish 4.8-7.3. Wins the Mid-American in 1.1%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.2 points since preseason — won 28-17 over Sacramento State against an expected margin of +26, so −23.2 against the number.
- The Mid-American takes 0.07 bids in an average season.
Mid-American
1-0 in league play, projected 3.8-4.29 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan6.6
- wk8Eastern Michigan at Ohio3.0
- wk7Toledo at Eastern Michigan3.0
- wk3Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin2.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Eastern Michigan is 1-2 and needs 5 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.3% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl7.6%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl6.7%
- Arizona Bowl6.2%
- 68 Ventures Bowl2.6%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.1%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Eastern Michigan a player since 2010 — 8 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Eastern Michigan's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.