@ San Diego State · Wk 3Win prob 21%Model +12.8Schedule & Results
LIBLibertyW20-13✓Wk 2vsWAGNWagnerW87-3✓Wk 3@SDSUSan Diego State+12.821%Wk 4@
ODUOld Dominion-0.752%Wk 5vs
MRSHMarshall+0.549%Wk 6@
GASOGeorgia Southern-6.566%Wk 7vs
GASTGeorgia State-18.488%Wk 8@
APPApp State-6.466%Wk 9vs
TROYTroy-11.877%Wk 10@
USMSouthern Miss+2.046%Wk 11@
CONNUConn-2.957%Wk 13vs
CCUCoastal Carolina-19.690%Team Leaders
Camden ColemanPassing228 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Nick HermanRushing135 yds · 2 TD · 13.5 avg
Corey ScottReceiving7 rec · 73 yds · 1 TD
Ken WillisTackles14 tackles · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on James Madison
All news →James Madison holds off Liberty, 20-13
Pettaway and a Roomful of Strangers Open Napier's James Madison Era
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JC Evans | QB | SO | 6'4" | 232 | Miami, FL |
| 5 | Arrington Maiden | QB | SO | 6'3" | 225 | College Station, TX |
| 7 | Camden Coleman | QB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 14 | Tanner Vibabul | QB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 6 | George Pettaway | RB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Suffolk, VA |
| 20 | Malachi Fannin-Render | RB | FR | 5'6" | 195 | West Point, GA |
| 21 | Jackson McCarter | RB | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Bristow, VA |
| 22 | Trashon Dye | RB | SO | 5'11" | 230 | Passaic, NJ |
| 23 | Nick Herman | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Chicago, IL |
| 27 | Phoenix Donghia | RB | FR | 5'10" | 235 | Jupiter, FL |
| 34 | Seth Cromwell | RB | SR | 5'9" | 220 | Littleton, CO |
| 2 | Jayden Mines | WR | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Ashland, VA |
| 3 | Corey Scott | WR | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 8 | Jeremiah Harrison | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 9 | Davi Belfort | WR | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Rio De Janeiro |
| 10 | Braeden Wisloski | WR | SR | 5'9" | 195 | Elysburg, PA |
| 11 | Noah Grevious | WR | SO | 5'11" | 205 | Charlottesville, VA |
| 12 | Za'Ron Collins | WR | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 15 | Elijah Moss | WR | FR | 5'8" | 160 | Norfolk, VA |
| 16 | Arrion Concepcion | WR | FR | 5'8" | 180 | Charlotte, NC |
| 17 | Michael Scott | WR | SO | 5'7" | 160 | York, PA |
| 18 | Kylan Billiot | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Houma, LA |
| 24 | Kaleb Smith | WR | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Tampa, FL |
| 28 | Micah Matthews | WR | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Bridgewater, VA |
| 30 | Trace Burney | WR | FR | 5'6" | 160 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 40 | Zion Hudson | WR | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Fort Valley, GA |
| 43 | Miles Halbert | WR | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Owings, MD |
| 81 | Chase Pensyl | WR | FR | 5'7" | 180 | Shamokin, PA |
| 83 | Xavier McDonald | WR | FR | 6'1" | 165 | Morton, MS |
| 88 | Dylan Williams | WR | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Roswell, GA |
| 0 | Cole Keller | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Grain Valley, MO |
| 13 | KD Mosley | TE | JR | 6'1" | 240 | Laurens, SC |
| 44 | Max Roche | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Niceville, FL |
| 82 | Thatcher Miller | TE | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Lititz, PA |
| 84 | Brian Hnat | TE | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Andover, MA |
| 85 | Ryder Post | TE | SO | 6'4" | 255 | Broadway, VA |
| 86 | Ethan Gurela | TE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Roswell, GA |
| 89 | Thomas Guillemette | TE | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Otterburn Park, PQ |
| 50 | Jesse Sears | OL | FR | 6'2" | 315 | Plattsburgh, NY |
| 52 | Jack Harris | OL | FR | 6'2" | 310 | Rumson, NJ |
| 53 | Daniel Michel | OL | JR | 6'5" | 330 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 54 | Jonah Smith | OL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Bear, DE |
| 55 | JaKobe Campbell | OL | SO | 6'2" | 270 | Raleigh, NC |
| 56 | Tyler Brown | OL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Jackson, MS |
| 58 | Griffin Hart | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Leesburg, VA |
| 60 | Zach Greenberg | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Livingston, NJ |
| 65 | Parker Cunningham | OL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | South Park, PA |
| 70 | Noel Portnjagin | OL | SO | 6'5" | 300 | Karlsruhe |
| 71 | Deacon Rawls | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Elizabeth City, NC |
| 72 | Kaedin Massey | OL | SO | 6'8" | 320 | Lyndon, KS |
| 73 | Evan Bushong | OL | SO | 6'3" | 320 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 74 | Sani Reed | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Crozet, VA |
| 75 | Wyatt Maines | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Hollidaysburg, PA |
| 76 | Frankie Tinilau | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Brisbane, QLD |
| 77 | DJ Fox | OL | SR | 6'8" | 310 | Union Grove, WI |
| 78 | Josh Manecke | OL | SO | 6'7" | 315 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 0 | Mason Purham | EDGE | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Hampton, VA |
| 8 | Amar Thomas | EDGE | SR | 6'0" | 240 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 9 | Kei'Trone Simpson | EDGE | SR | 6'2" | 270 | Dallas, TX |
| 17 | Danny Royster | EDGE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 19 | Ernest Willor Jr. | EDGE | SO | 6'4" | 260 | Baltimore, MD |
| 44 | Kacey Gilliam | EDGE | FR | 6'0" | 250 | Montgomery Village, MD |
| 90 | Cory Simon | EDGE | FR | 5'11" | 255 | Lauderdale Lakes, FL |
| 92 | Grayson Gilmore | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 250 | Tampa, FL |
| 98 | Turner Schmidt | EDGE | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Hilliard, OH |
| 5 | Kevin Roberts | DL | JR | 6'0" | 295 | Apopka, FL |
| 10 | Chukwunedu Okeke | DL | SO | 6'3" | 305 | Mableton, GA |
| 51 | Chris Bispham | DL | FR | 6'1" | 285 | Havelock, NC |
| 55 | Rasheed Lovelace | DL | SR | 6'1" | 320 | Pensacola, FL |
| 88 | Kells Bush | DL | SR | 6'2" | 305 | New Orleans, LA |
| 91 | Jakolbi Wilson | DL | SR | 6'2" | 335 | Chicago, IL |
| 93 | Mychal McMullin | DL | JR | 6'1" | 285 | Newport News, VA |
| 99 | Cole Webster | DL | FR | 6'2" | 295 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 2 | Nakian Jackson | LB | SR | 6'0" | 240 | Stockton, CA |
| 3 | Gannon Weathersby | LB | SR | 5'10" | 225 | Atlanta, GA |
| 12 | Lathan Croley | LB | JR | 5'11" | 215 | Miami, FL |
| 15 | JT Hooten | LB | SO | 5'11" | 220 | Daleville, AL |
| 26 | Jayden Studio | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Perry, OH |
| 40 | Josiah Perry | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 42 | JT Kouame-Yao | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | Centreville, VA |
| 45 | Lee Johnson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Richmond Hill, GA |
| 1 | Damier Minkah | CB | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Gainesville, VA |
| 6 | DJ Kelly | CB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Allentown, PA |
| 11 | LaRon Dues | CB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Charleston, WV |
| 21 | Roddrey McWilliams | CB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Richmond, VA |
| 23 | Ken Willis | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 27 | Jamal Olford | CB | FR | 5'8" | 170 | Wylie, TX |
| 28 | Kamden Jennings | CB | FR | 5'8" | 170 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 29 | KJ Wright | CB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Charlotte, NC |
| 33 | Trey Gibson | CB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | King Of Prussia, PA |
| 41 | George Lovelace | CB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Richmond, VA |
| 7 | Javis Mynatt | S | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Knoxville, TN |
| 14 | KJ Flowe | S | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Charlotte, NC |
| 16 | TJ McGill | S | JR | 5'10" | 195 | Charlotte, NC |
| 18 | Jase Rhodes | S | FR | 5'9" | 195 | Roanoke, VA |
| 22 | Chase Regan | S | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Dillsburg, PA |
| 24 | Jayon Harvey | S | JR | 5'10" | 200 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 25 | Terrence Jones | S | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Prosper, TX |
| 30 | D'Kwan Thomas | S | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Temple Hills, MD |
| 31 | Seth Gathers | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Waldorf, MD |
| 32 | Chase Miller | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Baltimore, MD |
| 35 | Joshua Prince | S | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Sterling, VA |
| 47 | Kevin Kabasele | S | SO | 5'11" | 197 | Mclean, VA |
| 5 | Morgan Suarez | PK | SR | 5'8" | 185 | Wellington, FL |
| 95 | Baylen Woodman | PK | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Janesville, WI |
| 11 | Patrick Rea | P | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 84 | Andrew Bennett | P | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Thomasville, GA |
| 37 | Hayden Ross | LS | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Tiger, GA |
| 47 | Michell Dietzel | LS | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Burlington, WI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
James Madison is in year 1 under Billy Napier, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th on early downs defensively. The way in is 133rd at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
James Madison has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#5projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#9projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#133projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.07#66
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.29 / 1.79
- Power / stuff (off)
- 55.6% / 20.8%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.3%#92
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 10.7% / 3.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.11#114 | 0.74#10 | 0.68#56 |
| Defense | -0.30#22 | 0.16#81 | 0.45#82 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2856th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0356th
- Offense success rate38%25th
- Defense success rate allowed38%51st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs42%26th
- Offense success — passing downs29%34th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs39%66th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs36%23rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.356th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.256th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.159th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.946th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.147th
- Defense line yards allowed2.369th
- Offense highlight yards1.875th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
- Offense power success0.6738th
- Defense power success allowed0.8042nd
- Offense stuff rate0.2321st
- Defense stuff rate0.1423rd
Third down
- Third down conversion45%52nd
- Third down distance faced7.526th
- Third down conversion allowed44%31st
- Third down distance forced6.018th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1047th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0234th
Drives
- Points per drive2.562nd
- Points per drive allowed1.465th
- Average starting field position2531st
- Opponent starting field position2849th
- Available yards gained46%45th
- Available yards allowed53%35th
- Scoring opportunities per drive88%64th
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.956th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.971st
- Three-and-out rate38%23rd
- Three-and-outs forced22%45th
Roster
- Returning usage8%6th
- Returning EPA31.013th
- Team talent composite58827th
- Recruiting class rank80.042nd
- Recruiting class points18642nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.103 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 8 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 38.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 45.5%
- Over expected
- -7.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- -14
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. James Madison is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to James Madison in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2022–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 12-2 | 8-0 | 86% | 10.9 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 11-2 | 7-1 | 85% | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 8-3 | 6-2 | 73% | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 7-1 | 86% | — | — |
| 2020 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 88% | — | — |
| 2019 | 14-2 | 8-0 | 88% | 0.2 | +13.8 |
| 2018 | 9-4 | 7-2 | 69% | 0.2 | +8.8 |
| 2017 | 14-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 1.0 | +13.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 9.5-2.9. Wins the Sun Belt in 29%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 81%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 1.2 points since preseason — won 20-13 over Liberty against an expected margin of +7, so +0.2 against the number.
- At 0 losses they are 81% where the average Sun Belt team is 80%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 8.4% of seasons, having won their league in 93% of those.
James Madison’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at San Diego State16.5
- wk4at Old Dominion12.8
- wk6at Georgia Southern11.4
- wk11at UConn10.9
- wk8at App State10.9
- wk5vs Marshall10.2
Who to root for
Games James Madison is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico2.5
- wk2UCLA over San Diego State2.0
- wk11Oregon State over Boise State1.7
- wk4New Mexico State over New Mexico1.6
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy1.6
- wk6Oregon State over San Diego State1.5
Sun Belt
East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 6.1-1.91 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so James Madison can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4James Madison at Old Dominion34.5
- wk6James Madison at Georgia Southern28.2
- wk5Marshall at James Madison27.8
- wk8James Madison at App State27.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
James Madison is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- New Mexico Bowl21%
- Frisco Bowl18%
- Independence Bowl8.9%
- Cure Bowl8.6%
- Boca Raton Bowl6.4%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl5.1%