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Liberty

Liberty Flames

Conference USA·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1697#24
SP+
-7.2#93
FPI
-7.6
AP
NR
Nextvs Ball State · Wk 3Win prob 90%Model -19.5
Talent #79 (633.4)Recruiting class #10938% production returning

Team Leaders

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James Madison holds off Liberty, 20-13

Matchup · 6d ago

Pettaway and a Roomful of Strangers Open Napier's James Madison Era

Matchup · Aug 31

Roster · 107 players

FR 33SO 24JR 28SR 22
#PlayerPosClHtWt
5Deshawn PurdieQBJR6'4"228
13Jaylen HendersonQBSR6'3"227
14Ethan HouckQBFR6'4"205
15Ethan VaskoQBSR6'3"220
18Jachin DavisQBFR6'0"195
0Jaylon ColemanRBSO5'9"155
4Kam DavisRBSO5'10"224
6Kanye UdohRBJR6'1"220
7Peyton JonesRBJR5'10"195
8Brenton WilliamsRBJR6'3"260
11Terron KellmanRBSR5'8"210
23Cam WoodRBFR5'8"195
26Jaylin BelfordRBSR5'8"175
29Justin MarshallRBJR5'10"190
30Ethan CrispRBJR6'3"235
95Jeffrey Hairston Jr.RBFR6'3"225
1Darius CopelandWRJR6'0"195
2Makai JacksonWRSR6'0"200
3Jamari PersonWRSR6'1"200
8Nasir NewkirkWRFR6'2"185
9Bryce RandolphWRFR5'11"180
10Jon MonteiroWRSO6'2"200
12Rashawn CunninghamWRSO6'2"205
16Eric SmithWRSO5'9"170
19Refeno VangatesWRSR5'11"195
27Clayton SheplerWRSO5'11"180
28Andrew RymanWRSO5'10"165
81Jakobe DeJesusWRFR6'2"190
89Nathanael DatesWRFR5'9"165
17Bo BurklowTEJR6'2"250
48Caleb RyanTESR6'2"240
84Breckan KirbyTESO6'4"220
85Kam TaylorTEFR6'6"240
87LaKelsey Johnson Jr.TESR6'3"248
88Zeke WimbushTEJR6'2"235
51D.J. GethOLJR6'3"295
52Kevin EveheOLSO6'6"296
53Alex BirchmeierOLJR6'5"300
56Christian WilliamsOLSR6'4"310
58Jude FosterOLSO6'3"290
59Brandon EdozieOLFR6'6"275
60Joep EngbersOLJR6'4"305
61Aaron FenimoreOLJR6'1"295
62Blake MartinOLFR6'2"250
63Daniel SchiffertOLFR6'3"295
64Hunter WinnOLFR6'5"305
65Malcolm GastonOLFR6'4"350
66Erwil Anthony Jr.OLSR6'4"285
70Austin AndersonOLJR6'4"300
72Val EricksonOLSR6'5"320
73Curtis DoirilusOLSO6'3"335
76Gabe SmithOLFR6'5"300
77Carlton HallOLFR6'4"295
78Joseph MorrisOLSO6'5"290
11Lorenzo PayneDLJR6'1"245
15Markus ClarkDLSR6'1"295
18Aaron HesterDLSR6'2"245
40Chris LawDLFR6'2"293
44Joe StricklandDLJR6'4"290
50Gavin AskewDLFR6'3"240
53Nikodemus ToungerDLJR6'0"275
55Henry HicksDLJR6'2"285
56Samuel CohenDLSO6'3"245
88Kam CullinsDLSO6'4"270
91Michael FloydeDLSO6'3"245
92John CustisDLJR6'3"285
94Nathan PirolliDLJR6'3"285
97Mike JarvisDLSR6'4"295
98Austin TremblayDLFR6'2"275
99Xavier ReidDLFR5'11"265
1Derrell FarrarLBJR6'1"225
4Micah PollardLBSR6'2"235
6Dillano GlaudLBSO6'3"220
9Deuce SpurlockLBSR6'0"225
22Kyle FermLBSO6'3"232
33Aidan VaughanLBSR6'3"220
34Ellis AllowayLBFR6'1"210
35Moses ByrdLBSO6'3"230
38Tre LawingLBSR6'0"200
43Matthew KramerLBJR6'1"216
2Jiquavious MarshallCBSO6'4"180
5Elijah HopkinsCBSR5'10"195
12Prince CottonhamCBFR6'0"170
14Elijah McKenzieCBJR5'10"170
16Tyrell GaineyCBJR6'1"175
20Kennedi BaileyCBFR6'2"175
21Ashton McShaneCBSO5'11"194
23Myke GunnCBFR6'3"180
28Jamal MilesCBJR6'0"180
0D-Icey HopkinsSSR5'11"195
3Ashton WhitnerSFR5'11"196
7Izaiah GuySJR6'2"200
10Ronald Moore Jr.SSO5'11"195
13Jeremiah VesselSJR5'11"190
17Jayden DavisSJR6'1"180
19Jayden WhaleySSO6'2"185
25Jaleel ParkerSFR5'11"205
26Macaiden BrownSFR6'1"180
29Tony ArnettSFR6'1"180
36Anthony SagetSFR5'10"175
39Carson JonesPKFR5'10"170
42Chase ReevesPKFR6'2"190
49Sam CrossanPKSO6'3"260
86Nathan DinwiddiePKFR6'2"200
98Tyler BlackPKSO5'9"190
41Greg RiveraLSSR6'1"225
45Cayden ComerLSFR6'2"220

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
18.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
21.5
scoring defense
Differential
-3.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
350.0#102
Yards / play
5.3#99
Passing yards / game
208.0#87
Rushing yards / game
142.0#83
First downs / game
18.5#98
3rd down %
32.1%#108
4th down %
20.0%#105
Time of possession
33:13#32
Defense
Yards allowed / game
297.5#63
Yards / play allowed
5.0#68
Pass yards allowed / game
152.0#48
Rush yards allowed / game
145.5#95
3rd down % allowed
37.5%#78
Sacks
2#81
Tackles for loss
14#20
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#36
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
2#68
Penalties / game
11.5#135
Penalty yards / game
89.0#130

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

run-leaning

Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 121st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 119th at defending the run.

On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #121
    projected
  • Defenserunning it
    #119
    projected
  • Defensesacks and tackles for loss
    #117
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
7.7 – 4.3
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
6.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
95%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
90%
vs Ball State
Toughest
33%
vs Delaware

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (28%)Bowl eligible 95% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBJaylen Henderson, Ethan Vasko +1
+10.2 EPA
RBTerron Kellman, Peyton Jones +3
+9.6 EPA
WRMakai Jackson, Jamari Person +4
+7.2 EPA
TEKelsey Johnson, Zeke Wimbush +1
+4.0 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBDeshawn Purdie
~$504K
EPA +5.00.088/play57 snaps
RBKam Davis
~$171K
EPA +3.90.139/play28 snaps
RBPeyton Jones
~$145K
EPA -3.8-0.153/play25 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.039th#125
Def0.1051st#68
Explosiveness
Off1.2955th#62
Def1.3529th#98
Field position
Off69.342nd#80
Def72.055th#62
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off1.778th#127
Def2.6469th#43
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 2
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.1825th#104
Off · rush
-0.1112th#121

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.1110th#124
Def0.1137th#87
Passing
Off0.1825th#104
Def0.1264th#51

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.93#84
2nd-level / open-field
1.15 / 0.92
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 14.1%
Havoc — total (def)
21.1%#35
Havoc — front 7 / DB
12.2% / 8.9%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.14
Def-0.00
Pass downs
Off0.17
Def0.29

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.26#1310.34#510.25#111
Defense-0.33#180.30#1060.71#112

Elo Trajectory

@James MadisonFinal
Elo rating 1703 → 1697-6 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.0318th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.2820th
  • Offense success rate38%23rd
  • Defense success rate allowed38%49th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs39%17th
  • Offense success — passing downs36%59th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs42%52nd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs29%47th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.243rd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.344th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8620th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.834th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.314th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.130th
  • Offense highlight yards0.007th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.815th
  • Offense power success0.8063rd
  • Defense power success allowed0.6761st
  • Offense stuff rate0.1466th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2361st

Third down

  • Third down conversion44%49th
  • Third down distance faced6.072nd
  • Third down conversion allowed45%29th
  • Third down distance forced7.556th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.1025th
  • Net success rate — second half0.0239th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.437th
  • Points per drive allowed2.537th
  • Average starting field position2848th
  • Opponent starting field position2573rd
  • Available yards gained53%63rd
  • Available yards allowed46%56th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive78%47th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed88%36th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.929th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.946th
  • Three-and-out rate22%59th
  • Three-and-outs forced38%77th

Roster

  • Returning usage43%50th
  • Returning EPA86.943rd
  • Team talent composite63343rd
  • Recruiting class rank10921st
  • Recruiting class points17321st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.027#125 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.180#104
Rush EPA/play
-0.115#124
Explosiveness
1.286#62
Pts/opportunity
1.77#127
Success rate
38.2%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.295 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.096#68 · average
Havoc rate (total)
21.1%#35
Front-7 havoc
12.2%
DB havoc
8.9%
Big play rate allowed
1.348#98
Success rate allowed
35.0%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

18.5 PPG offense, 21.5 allowed — -3.0 margin/game
Points per game
18.5
Points allowed/game
21.5
Scoring margin/game
-3.0
Turnover margin
+1won 3 · lost 2
Production returning
38%
Talent rank (247)
#79

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE9thEXPLOSIVENESS55thFINISHING8thFIELD POS42thDEFENSE51thHAVOC75th50th100th
Offense
9th
Explosiveness
55th
Finishing
8th
Field Pos
42th
Defense
51th
Havoc
75th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-4.6
#83
Offense
-1.2
#72
Defense
+3.4
#98
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.442.50
Starting field positionown 28.0own 24.8
Available yards52.8%46.3%
Scoring opportunities77.8%87.5%
Points per opportunity1.862.86
Three-and-out rate22.2%37.5%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
44.3%
Expected, given the spots
54.8%
Over expected
-10.5
Fourth down vs peers
+10
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Liberty is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Liberty in 2026

by EPA/play distance
TCUSP+ +3.9
Off EPA/play -0.046Def EPA/play +0.107Elo 1595
Match
99%
Central MichiganSP+ -20.0
Off EPA/play -0.047Def EPA/play +0.131Elo 1259
Match
98%
Washington StateSP+ -3.7
Off EPA/play -0.060Def EPA/play +0.147Elo 1601
Match
97%
Eastern MichiganSP+ -15.6
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1353
Match
97%
AuburnSP+ +7.0
Off EPA/play +0.028Def EPA/play +0.054Elo 1613
Match
97%
Bowling GreenSP+ -12.8
Off EPA/play +0.025Def EPA/play +0.147Elo 1340
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2018–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2018: -17.0, #112 of 1302019: -5.9, #86 of 1302020: +4.6, #46 of 1242021: +7.8, #47 of 1302022: +1.4, #62 of 1312023: +17.4, #15 of 1332024: +2.5, #57 of 1342025: -7.1, #88 of 1362026: -4.6, #83 of 138
20182026
Now -4.6 · #83 of 138Best +17.4 in 2023Worst -17.0 in 2018

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
0.9+0.1
20254-83-5
33%
5.3-1.3
20248-45-3
67%
7.8+0.2
202313-19-0
93%
12.8+0.2
20228-52-1
62%
7.3+0.7
20218-50-0
62%
7.9+0.1
202010-10-0
91%
8.1+1.9
20198-50-0
62%
8.3-0.3
20186-60-0
50%
5.0+1.0
20176-52-3
55%
0.8+5.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

1.2%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 8.8-3.8. Wins the Conference USA in 37%.

If they finish with…

13%
1 loss
0.2%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 13%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 2.9 points since preseason — lost 13-20 to James Madison against an expected margin of −7, so −0.2 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 13% where the average Conference USA team is 13%.
  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 1.2% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Liberty’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk8at Kennesaw State2.0
  • wk4at Coastal Carolina2.0
  • wk5at Delaware2.0
  • wk10at New Mexico State1.8
  • wk9vs Florida International1.7
  • wk12vs Western Kentucky1.6

Who to root for

Games Liberty is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10Colorado State over Boise State0.8
  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.7
  • wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.6
  • wk5Utah State over Boise State0.6
  • wk2North Dakota State over Air Force0.5
  • wk6UAB over Memphis0.5
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 5.9-2.11 of 10 by title odds
37%
Wins the Conference USA
58%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8Liberty at Kennesaw State31.5
  • wk9Florida International at Liberty30.6
  • wk5Liberty at Delaware30.0
  • wk12Western Kentucky at Liberty29.4

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

93%
Bowl eligible
92%
Placed in a bowl
1.2%
In the playoff
7.3%
Season over in November

Liberty is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Armed Forces Bowl35%
  • Hawai'i Bowl11%
  • New Orleans Bowl7.4%
  • Boca Raton Bowl6.9%
  • Cure Bowl6.3%
  • Independence Bowl5.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.