vs Mississippi State · Wk 3Win prob 74%Model -10.1Schedule & Results
KENTKent StateW57-0✓Wk 2vsTOWSTowsonW45-9✓Wk 3vsMSSTMississippi State-10.174%Wk 4@
ALAAlabama+1.247%Wk 5vs
UKKentucky-14.382%Wk 6@
FLAFlorida-1.053%Wk 8vs
TENNTennessee-5.263%Wk 9@
OUOklahoma+8.230%Wk 10vs
TA&MTexas A&M+11.323%Wk 11@
ARKArkansas-6.766%Wk 12vs
UGAGeorgia+10.524%Wk 13@
CLEMClemson-1.353%SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Lanorris SellersPassing366 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Matthew FullerRushing199 yds · 2 TD · 9.5 avg
Nyck HarborReceiving7 rec · 105 yds · 0 TD
Tomiwa DurojaiyeTackles7 tackles · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on South Carolina
All news →Lanorris Sellers produced 8 of South Carolina's 13 explosive plays
Kent State's run game meets the nation's sixth-best front
Roster · 111 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Landon Duckworth | QB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Jackson, AL |
| 12 | Cutter Woods | QB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Anderson, SC |
| 15 | Lucian Anderson III | QB | JR | 6'3" | 216 | Athens, GA |
| 16 | LaNorris Sellers | QB | JR | 6'3" | 238 | Florence, SC |
| 19 | Brandon Cunningham | QB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Anderson, SC |
| 25 | Jimmy Francis | QB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Dallas, TX |
| 4 | Isaiah Augustave | RB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Naples, FL |
| 10 | Christian Clark | RB | SO | 5'11" | 216 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 21 | Jabree Coleman | RB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Darby Township, PA |
| 22 | Jawarn Howell | RB | JR | 6'1" | 222 | Mooresville, NC |
| 28 | Matt Fuller | RB | SO | 5'11" | 221 | Jesup, GA |
| 31 | Neil Salvage III | RB | SO | 5'9" | 186 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 35 | Ethan Kellum | RB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Nashville, TN |
| 0 | Lex Cyrus | WR | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 1 | Nitro Tuggle | WR | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Elkhart, IN |
| 3 | Mazeo Bennett Jr. | WR | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Greenville, SC |
| 6 | Donovan Murph | WR | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Irmo, SC |
| 7 | Jordon Gidron | WR | FR | 6'2" | 197 | Columbia, SC |
| 8 | Nyck Harbor | WR | SR | 6'5" | 239 | Washington, DC |
| 9 | Jayden Gibson | WR | SR | 6'5" | 205 | Apopka, FL |
| 13 | Malik Clark | WR | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 17 | Jayden Sellers | WR | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Florence, SC |
| 18 | Stone Furrey | WR | FR | 5'10" | 181 | Irmo, SC |
| 23 | Sequel Patterson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Charlotte, NC |
| 82 | Jackson Repp | WR | FR | 5'8" | 175 | Greenville, SC |
| 83 | DJ Black | WR | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Inman, SC |
| 84 | Charly Mullaly | WR | JR | 6'0" | 185 | East Fishkill, NY |
| 5 | Mike Tyler | TE | SO | 6'4" | 245 | Columbia, SC |
| 44 | Maurice Brown II | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 80 | Max Drag | TE | JR | 6'4" | 248 | Chapin, SC |
| 81 | Reno Roehm | TE | SO | 6'7" | 260 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 85 | Caden Ramsey | TE | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Cross, SC |
| 87 | Brady Hunt | TE | SR | 6'5" | 251 | Muncie, IN |
| 50 | Carter Miller | OL | SR | 6'2" | 311 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 51 | Ebubedike Nnabugwu | OL | JR | 6'2" | 310 | Baltimore, MD |
| 52 | Hank Purvis | OL | JR | 6'5" | 330 | Wichita, KS |
| 54 | Ashton Mozone | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Graniteville, SC |
| 55 | Adedamola Ajidahun | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Duluth, GA |
| 58 | Markee Anderson | OL | JR | 6'2" | 320 | Roebuck, SC |
| 60 | Anthony Baxter | OL | FR | 6'4" | 340 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 62 | Nolan Hay | OL | SR | 6'3" | 328 | Katy, TX |
| 64 | Neff Giwa | OL | FR | 6'7" | 305 | Cashel |
| 65 | Jacarrius Peak | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Valdosta, GA |
| 67 | Vincent Chen | OL | JR | 6'7" | 330 | DeLand, FL |
| 69 | Emmanuel Kojo Poku | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Charlotte, NC |
| 70 | Jake Recker | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Indian Land, SC |
| 71 | Blake Franks | OL | SO | 6'5" | 325 | Greenville, SC |
| 72 | Shed Sarratt Jr. | OL | SO | 6'4" | 318 | Gaffney, SC |
| 74 | Josiah Thompson | OL | JR | 6'7" | 305 | Dillon, SC |
| 75 | Dayne Arnett | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Grand Haven, MI |
| 76 | Zyon Guiles | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Georgetown, SC |
| 77 | Darius Gray | OL | FR | 6'3" | 302 | Chesterfield, VA |
| 78 | Seth Smith | OL | SR | 6'4" | 309 | Chandler, AZ |
| 79 | Armando Nieves | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 6 | Dylan Stewart | DE | JR | 6'5" | 250 | Washington, DC |
| 10 | George Wilson Jr. | DE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 22 | Jaquavious Dodd | DE | FR | 6'6" | 253 | Taylors, SC |
| 27 | Drew Collins | DE | SO | 6'2" | 246 | Birmingham, AL |
| 39 | Caleb Herring | DE | SR | 6'5" | 245 | Newnan, GA |
| 40 | Anthony Addison | DE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Bishopville, SC |
| 41 | Kobby Sakyi-Prah | DE | FR | 6'2" | 231 | Roswell, GA |
| 55 | Julian Walker | DE | FR | 6'6" | 255 | Irmo, SC |
| 11 | Jordan Thomas | DL | SO | 6'5" | 316 | Hackensack, NJ |
| 13 | Tomiwa Durojaiye | DL | SR | 6'4" | 291 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 65 | Noah Clark | DL | FR | 6'5" | 345 | Durham, NC |
| 88 | Caleb Williams | DL | FR | 6'5" | 287 | Ettrick, VA |
| 90 | Aiden Harris | DL | FR | 6'2" | 286 | Shellman, GA |
| 95 | Christian Ingram | DL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Conyers, GA |
| 97 | Kelby Collins | DL | SR | 6'4" | 285 | Birmingham, AL |
| 99 | Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy | DL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Lakeland, FL |
| 33 | Troy Pikes | DT | JR | 6'3" | 293 | Atlanta, GA |
| 0 | Fred Johnson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 241 | Norfolk, VA |
| 7 | Shawn Murphy | LB | SR | 6'3" | 233 | Manassas, VA |
| 15 | Donovan Darden | LB | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Havelock, NC |
| 17 | Justin Okoronkwo | LB | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Munich |
| 20 | Josh Smith | LB | FR | 6'2" | 234 | Irmo, SC |
| 24 | Keenan Britt | LB | FR | 6'0" | 238 | Oxford, AL |
| 30 | Andrew Harris | LB | FR | 6'2" | 238 | Shellman, GA |
| 32 | A.J. Holloway | LB | FR | 6'2" | 232 | Buford, GA |
| 34 | Jamian Risher Jr. | LB | SR | 6'1" | 238 | Varnville, SC |
| 1 | Gerald Kilgore | DB | SR | 6'0" | 208 | Eatonton, GA |
| 3 | Kelvin Hunter | DB | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Florence, SC |
| 4 | Vicari Swain | DB | JR | 6'0" | 193 | Carrollton, GA |
| 5 | Kendall Daniels Jr. | DB | SO | 6'4" | 213 | Norfolk, VA |
| 8 | Judge Collier | DB | SR | 6'2" | 206 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 9 | David Bucey | DB | JR | 6'0" | 214 | Savannah, GA |
| 12 | Quay'sheed Scott | DB | JR | 5'11" | 208 | Marion, SC |
| 14 | J'Zavien Currence | DB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 16 | Jalewis Solomon | DB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Ellaville, GA |
| 18 | Jaquel Holman | DB | SO | 6'1" | 214 | Blackville, SC |
| 19 | Damarcus Leach | DB | SO | 6'3" | 201 | Abbeville, SC |
| 21 | Chris Hatfield | DB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Ludowici, GA |
| 23 | Triston Lewis | DB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Greenwood, SC |
| 25 | Zahbari Sandy | DB | JR | 6'2" | 208 | Washington, DC |
| 26 | Isaiah McClary | DB | SO | 6'1" | 175 | Irmo, SC |
| 28 | Kosci Barnes | DB | FR | 6'2" | 209 | Greensboro, NC |
| 29 | Cedric Cisse | DB | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Sumter, SC |
| 31 | Peyton Williams | DB | SR | 6'0" | 214 | Heath, TX |
| 35 | Jackson Burger | DB | SO | 6'1" | 209 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 36 | Landon Kurtz | DB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 43 | Tony Brown | DB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Charleston, SC |
| 44 | KJ Johnson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Birmingham, AL |
| — | Ethan Johnson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Huntersville, NC |
| 14 | Max Kelley | PK | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Gallatin, TN |
| 24 | Mason Love | PK | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Riverside, MO |
| 27 | Upton Bellenfant | PK | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 32 | Malik Orsan | PK | FR | 6'1" | 210 | St. Louis, MO |
| 29 | Gunnar Yocum | LS | SO | 6'0" | 201 | Huger, SC |
| 53 | Emmet Rhoades | LS | JR | 5'11" | 225 | Chicago, IL |
| 57 | Kyler Farrow | LS | FR | 6'2" | 221 | Hartland, WI |
| 59 | Matthew Oh | LS | FR | 5'9" | 215 | Buford, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
South Carolina is in year 6 under Shane Beamer, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 8th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Carolina has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#8projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#19projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.29#2
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.79 / 4.48
- Power / stuff (off)
- 83.3% / 7.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.9%#107
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.6% / 4.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.28#21 | -0.02#112 | 1.21#6 |
| Defense | -0.29#16 | 0.06#54 | 0.44#83 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4491st
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0782nd
- Offense success rate59%98th
- Defense success rate allowed27%92nd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs61%94th
- Offense success — passing downs48%93rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs30%92nd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs23%68th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.248th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.415th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9634th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.693rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards4.299th
- Defense line yards allowed2.183rd
- Offense highlight yards3.699th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.6054th
- Offense power success0.8375th
- Defense power success allowed0.4282nd
- Offense stuff rate0.0898th
- Defense stuff rate0.2472nd
Third down
- Third down conversion64%95th
- Third down distance faced5.985th
- Third down conversion allowed27%82nd
- Third down distance forced8.280th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2888th
- Net success rate — second half0.3699th
Drives
- Points per drive6.299th
- Points per drive allowed0.0099th
- Average starting field position201st
- Opponent starting field position2488th
- Available yards gained91%99th
- Available yards allowed23%97th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity6.299th
- Points allowed per opportunity0.0099th
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced33%74th
Roster
- Returning usage68%79th
- Returning EPA14862nd
- Team talent composite86390th
- Recruiting class rank14.091st
- Recruiting class points25691st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.441 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 49.7%
- Over expected
- +6.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- -0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. South Carolina is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to South Carolina in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 1-7 | 33% | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 20% | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 7.7 | +1.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.0-5.1. Top-four bye in 3.2%. Wins the SEC in 1.9%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 4.4 points since preseason — won 57-0 over Kent State against an expected margin of +37, so +19.6 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 33% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
South Carolina’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Alabama25.0
- wk12vs Georgia23.5
- wk6at Florida22.7
- wk10vs Texas A&M22.3
- wk9at Oklahoma22.1
- wk8vs Tennessee19.3
Who to root for
Games South Carolina is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Arizona State over BYU1.9
- wk7Auburn over Georgia1.6
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan1.5
- wk12Notre Dame over SMU1.4
- wk7Kent State over South Florida1.4
- wk7Georgia State over James Madison1.3
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 4.3-4.710 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Georgia at South Carolina5.2
- wk4South Carolina at Alabama4.6
- wk6South Carolina at Florida4.0
- wk10Texas A&M at South Carolina4.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
South Carolina is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Music City Bowl8.7%
- Texas Bowl8.6%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl8.4%
- Gator Bowl7.7%
- Liberty Bowl7.3%
- ReliaQuest Bowl6.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent South Carolina a player since 2010 — 18 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of South Carolina's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.