vs Virginia Tech · Wk 3Win prob 65%Model -6.1Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Malik WashingtonPassing533 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Iverson HowardRushing121 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 avg
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingReceiving14 rec · 187 yds · 2 TD
Carlton SmithTackles10 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Maryland
All news →UConn's Short-yardage game meets the wrong defense
DeJuan Williams produced six of Maryland's eleven explosive plays
Roster · 108 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cardell Williams | QB | SR | 6'2" | 181 | Houston, TX |
| 7 | Malik Washington | QB | SO | 6'5" | 231 | Glen Burnie, MD |
| 12 | Nathan Bernhard | QB | FR | 6'5" | 227 | Ashland, OH |
| 15 | Jackson Hamilton | QB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Houston, TX |
| 22 | Jack Capaldi | QB | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Malvern, PA |
| 23 | Max Lawrence | QB | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Hialeah, FL |
| 0 | DeJuan Williams | RB | SO | 5'11" | 215 | Baltimore, MD |
| 24 | Iverson Howard | RB | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Gaithersburg, MD |
| 25 | Harry Dalton III | RB | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Dinwiddie, VA |
| 26 | Terrez Worthy | RB | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Salisbury, MD |
| 29 | Liam Willson | RB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Reston, VA |
| 45 | Solomon Foye | RB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Elkton, MD |
| 20 | DJ Samuels | FB | JR | 6'1" | 238 | Englewood, NJ |
| 1 | Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 2 | Kaleb Webb | WR | SR | 6'5" | 201 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 10 | Zymear Smith | WR | FR | 6'0" | 178 | Ridgely, MD |
| 11 | Ryan Manning | WR | JR | 5'11" | 191 | Glenn Dale, MD |
| 13 | Chris Durr Jr. | WR | JR | 5'11" | 173 | Chicago, IL |
| 14 | Jordan Scott | WR | SR | 6'7" | 220 | Lynchburg, VA |
| 17 | Jayden Kitchens | WR | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Forestville, MD |
| 18 | Josiah Teasley | WR | FR | 6'5" | 190 | Springfield, VA |
| 21 | Sean Williams | WR | JR | 6'2" | 178 | Washington, DC |
| 80 | Ejani Shakir | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Pennsauken, NJ |
| 83 | Emerson Smith | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Stowe, VT |
| 88 | Justin DeVaughn | WR | FR | 5'9" | 166 | Baltimore, MD |
| 8 | Preston Howard | TE | SR | 6'5" | 236 | Arbutus, MD |
| 9 | Dorian Fleming | TE | JR | 6'3" | 245 | Henrico, VA |
| 16 | Damon Hall Jr. | TE | FR | 6'5" | 205 | Baltimore, MD |
| 39 | Daniel Owens | TE | SR | 6'4" | 266 | Pikesville, MD |
| 81 | Javonte Williams | TE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Damascus, MD |
| 84 | Thomas McCluskey | TE | JR | 6'8" | 245 | New Fairfield, CT |
| 85 | JT Taggart | TE | SO | 6'7" | 236 | Bowling Green, KY |
| 86 | Brayden Marko | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | New Market, MD |
| 89 | AJ Szymanski | TE | SR | 6'6" | 244 | Timonium, MD |
| 50 | Trevor Szymanski | OL | SO | 6'6" | 289 | Timonium, MD |
| 51 | Michael McMonigle | OL | FR | 6'7" | 297 | York, PA |
| 54 | Lamar Williams | OL | FR | 6'7" | 290 | Midway, FL |
| 55 | Tellek Lockette | OL | SR | 6'3" | 327 | Miami, FL |
| 57 | Jesse Moody | OL | FR | 6'6" | 345 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 61 | Michael Hershey | OL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Spring Grove, PA |
| 64 | Aaron Folivi | OL | SR | 6'5" | 325 | Laurel, MD |
| 66 | Teagan Cox | OL | FR | 6'5" | 310 | Lusby, MD |
| 67 | Jonathan Panagou | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | South Hamilton, MA |
| 68 | Carlos Moore | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Bowie, MD |
| 69 | Logan Bennett | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Baltimore, MD |
| 70 | Jaylen Gilchrist | OL | FR | 6'5" | 299 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 71 | Ryan Howerton | OL | SO | 6'6" | 332 | Laurel, MD |
| 72 | Ben Beymer | OL | FR | 6'8" | 317 | Auburndale, FL |
| 73 | Davon Watkins | OL | SO | 6'4" | 316 | Baltimore, MD |
| 74 | Isaiah Wright | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | North Plainfield, NJ |
| 75 | Day'Jon Moore | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Oak Cliff, TX |
| 76 | Rahtrel Perry | OL | SR | 6'5" | 317 | New London, CT |
| 77 | Amory Hills | OL | SO | 6'5" | 330 | Baltimore, MD |
| 78 | Anthony Robsock | OL | SO | 6'7" | 300 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 0 | Zion Elee | DL | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Baltimore, MD |
| 9 | Zahir Mathis | DL | SO | 6'6" | 222 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 10 | Cam Brickle II | DL | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 11 | Sidney Stewart | DL | SO | 6'2" | 255 | Joppa, MD |
| 34 | Jianni Davis | DL | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Bowie, MD |
| 40 | Nahsir Taylor | DL | SO | 6'3" | 258 | Suitland, MD |
| 44 | Joel Starlings | DL | JR | 6'4" | 302 | Richmond, VA |
| 50 | EJ Moore Jr. | DL | JR | 6'2" | 292 | Decatur, GA |
| 54 | JaMarcus Whyce | DL | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Dayton, OH |
| 56 | DD Holmes | DL | SO | 6'7" | 263 | Washington, DC |
| 57 | Bryce Jenkins | DL | SO | 6'6" | 350 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 58 | Joshua Simmons | DL | SO | 6'6" | 286 | Fort Washington, MD |
| 88 | Derrick LeBlanc | DL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 90 | Delmar White | DL | FR | 6'2" | 340 | Millersville, MD |
| 95 | Armon Parker | DL | SR | 6'3" | 320 | Detroit, MI |
| 97 | Jayvon Parker | DL | SR | 6'3" | 330 | Detroit, MI |
| 98 | Eyan Thomas | DL | JR | 6'3" | 328 | Chichester, PA |
| 99 | Lavon Johnson | DL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Allentown, PA |
| 1 | Daniel Wingate | LB | SR | 6'5" | 230 | Bowie, MD |
| 3 | Trey Reddick | LB | JR | 6'4" | 218 | Hampton, VA |
| 19 | Stephen Dean III | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Mineral, VA |
| 23 | Jordan Williams | LB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Houston, TX |
| 27 | Kaden Carter | LB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Barnesville, GA |
| 30 | Travares Daniels II | LB | FR | 6'2" | 213 | Miami, FL |
| 32 | Carlton Smith | LB | SO | 6'1" | 222 | Norfolk, VA |
| 35 | Keyari James | LB | SO | 6'3" | 236 | Calgary, AB |
| 48 | Darius Grimes | LB | JR | 6'2" | 221 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 49 | Chris Wells | LB | JR | 6'1" | 246 | Washington, DC |
| 53 | Kellen McConnell | LB | SO | 6'2" | 232 | Kensington, MD |
| 2 | Lavain Scruggs | DB | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Baltimore, MD |
| 4 | Jamare Glasker | DB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Temple Hills, MD |
| 5 | Darrell Carey | DB | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Washington, DC |
| 6 | Dontay Joyner | DB | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Lakeland, FL |
| 7 | Gavin Edwards | DB | JR | 6'1" | 193 | Alvin, SC |
| 8 | Mekhai White | DB | SO | 6'5" | 201 | King George, VA |
| 12 | Jayden Shipps | DB | SO | 6'1" | 182 | Severn, MD |
| 14 | Sean Johnson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Severna Park, MD |
| 15 | Lloyd Irvin III | DB | SO | 6'3" | 196 | Springdale, MD |
| 18 | Alex Moore | DB | JR | 6'1" | 189 | Beltsville, MD |
| 20 | Ontario Washington Jr. | DB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Stafford, VA |
| 21 | Judah Jenkins | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Olney, MD |
| 22 | Zahir Cobb | DB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Washington, DC |
| 24 | Amari Jackson | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 25 | Ricardo Cooper Jr. | DB | JR | 5'9" | 175 | Baltimore, MD |
| 26 | Hakim Satterwhite | DB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Bowie, MD |
| 33 | Messiah Delhomme | DB | SO | 6'2" | 196 | Newport News, VA |
| 38 | Taylor Best | DB | JR | 6'0" | 183 | Chevy Chase, MD |
| 36 | Sean O'Haire | PK | SO | 6'2" | 188 | Kildare |
| 86 | Eli Fulcher | PK | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 98 | Daniel Leahy | PK | FR | 6'6" | 225 | Dublin |
| 34 | Bryce McFerson | P | SR | 6'2" | 191 | Indian Trail, NC |
| 43 | Philip Noyes | P | SO | 6'3" | 212 | Pittsford, NY |
| 59 | Rory Knipp | LS | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 97 | Luke O'Hare | LS | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Hyattsville, MD |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Maryland throws it: Mike Locksley's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 109th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Maryland has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#14projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#33projected
- Defensethrowing it#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#109projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.20#53
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.07 / 2.71
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 19.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 21.9%#23
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 17.1% / 4.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.44#8 | 0.06#102 | 0.61#58 |
| Defense | -0.35#7 | 0.21#87 | 0.07#22 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3882nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0985th
- Offense success rate53%85th
- Defense success rate allowed27%93rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs56%81st
- Offense success — passing downs42%82nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs31%90th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%75th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.356th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.256th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.166th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.834th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.582nd
- Defense line yards allowed1.497th
- Offense highlight yards1.877th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2983rd
- Offense power success0.6736th
- Defense power success allowed0.6754th
- Offense stuff rate0.1750th
- Defense stuff rate0.3091st
Third down
- Third down conversion55%86th
- Third down distance faced6.080th
- Third down conversion allowed32%69th
- Third down distance forced9.293rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1877th
- Net success rate — second half0.3195th
Drives
- Points per drive3.581st
- Points per drive allowed1.379th
- Average starting field position3793rd
- Opponent starting field position2575th
- Available yards gained63%80th
- Available yards allowed31%88th
- Scoring opportunities per drive91%79th
- Scoring opportunities allowed64%93rd
- Points per scoring opportunity3.878th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.078th
- Three-and-out rate18%74th
- Three-and-outs forced36%82nd
Roster
- Returning usage71%84th
- Returning EPA11254th
- Team talent composite72067th
- Recruiting class rank43.069th
- Recruiting class points21669th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.110 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 62.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 43.6%
- Over expected
- +19.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- -7
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Maryland is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Maryland in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 33% | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 33% | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 4-5 | 62% | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 4-5 | 62% | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 3-6 | 54% | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 40% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 25% | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 3.1 | +0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.6-5.4. Wins the Big Ten in 0.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 0.0 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 53% where the average Big Ten team is 69%.
- The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.
Maryland’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at Ohio State21.5
- wk12at USC10.9
- wk13vs Penn State9.7
- wk5at Nebraska9.3
- wk4vs UCLA7.1
- wk3vs Virginia Tech6.8
Who to root for
Games Maryland is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12App State over UL Monroe0.7
- wk8Minnesota over Iowa0.7
- wk5Boston College over SMU0.7
- wk4Eastern Michigan over Lindenwood0.7
- wk3Florida State over Alabama0.6
- wk11Central Michigan over Sacramento State0.6
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-4.911 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6Maryland at Ohio State5.0
- wk12Maryland at USC1.6
- wk13Penn State at Maryland1.6
- wk5Maryland at Nebraska1.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Maryland is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 4.8% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- LA Bowl8.2%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl8.1%
- Rate Bowl7.6%
- Pinstripe Bowl6.7%
- Las Vegas Bowl6.3%
- Music City Bowl4.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 13 have sent Maryland a player since 2010 — 76 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Maryland's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.