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San Diego State

San Diego State Aztecs

Pac-12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1518#61
SP+
3.1#57
FPI
1.2
AP
NR
Nextvs James Madison · Wk 3Win prob 79%Model -12.8
Talent #89 (609.2)Recruiting class #8399% production returning

Roster · 112 players

FR 38SO 25JR 16SR 33
#PlayerPosClHtWt
4Jayden DenegalQBSR6'5"230
12Stone SaundersQBFR6'1"222
14Brady CampbellQBFR6'3"190
16Draiden TrudeauQBFR6'0"190
7Lucky SuttonRBSR6'1"210
20Christian WashingtonRBSR5'10"205
21Javion KinnardRBSO5'8"175
23Josiah LucasRBFR5'9"190
29Jordin ThomasRBFR5'8"205
2Jordan NapierWRJR6'2"205
5Bert Emanuel Jr.WRSR6'3"235
10Parker ThreattWRSO6'1"200
11De'yhare Overstreet-GloverWRSR5'9"165
12Jaylon HawkinsWRFR6'0"175
13Nathan AcevedoWRSR5'10"170
14Donovan BrownWRSR6'2"180
16Will CianfriniWRSO6'4"190
17Jacob BostickWRSR6'3"190
18Justius LoweWRSR6'1"190
30Aldrich DoeWRJR6'3"196
42Craig WalkerWRFR5'10"170
84Derek StevensonWRFR6'2"195
85Daishaun DavisWRFR5'11"170
86Carson DiehlWRFR6'3"195
92Luke GaytonWRSO6'1"195
93Ayo Shotomide-KingWRJR6'3"225
15Jackson FordTEJR6'6"250
19Jack LuaTEFR6'5"240
47Kime FangupoTESO6'5"247
87Jack EllisTEFR6'6"230
88Ryan WolferTESO6'5"235
99Elijah MuliufiTEFR6'7"270
55Michael Leville WatkinsOLSO6'2"310
56Isaac LucasOLJR6'3"298
58Ikbahl KassimOLSO6'2"315
62Jarvis WilliamsOLFR6'7"340
65Harrison WaltersOLFR6'4"340
66Justice TurnerOLSO6'3"290
67Charlton LuniewskiOLSO6'5"310
68Brian BorjonOLFR6'6"275
69Delphyn NgaleuOLJR6'6"305
70Mercer LuniewskiOLSO6'6"320
71Evan LawrenceOLSO6'6"306
72Dennis JonesOLSR6'6"350
73Brady HillOLFR6'3"285
74Ashdon WnetrzakOLFR6'8"335
75Delon Craft Jr.OLFR6'5"290
76Kalan EllisOLSR6'5"350
77Cam MayOLSR6'7"310
78Joseph BorjonOLSR6'8"338
79Harlem NellumOLFR6'5"350
6Malachi FinauDLSR6'1"295
10Lucan AmituanaiDLFR6'4"240
11Krishna ClayDLSR6'2"295
18Kai WallinDLSR6'5"247
33Brady NassarDLSR6'5"255
40Charlie StewartDLSR6'1"230
44Nate HenrichDLJR6'6"260
48Crosby KellyDLFR6'5"255
52Koi TaieseDLFR6'3"320
59Djibril RahmanDLJR6'4"257
88Kainoa DavisDLSO6'1"275
90Robby Lavata'iDLFR6'5"250
91Djibril Abdou RahmanDLJR6'4"257
91Amari ComierDLSR6'2"295
94Tuaoa Tauili'iliDLJR6'3"330
95Gavriel LightfootDLSR6'3"310
97Dominic CoelhoDLFR6'4"235
98Roman PasekaDLFR6'4"275
99Brian Townsend Jr.DLFR6'4"240
0Sione HalaLBSR6'1"225
15Oberhiri EyafeLBSO6'3"205
21Tano LetuliLBSR6'2"240
31Jeramiah LewisLBSO6'3"230
34Dean HarringtonLBSO6'2"227
39Javari NashLBFR6'2"215
41Alijah LashLBFR6'2"230
42Cameron CooperLBJR6'2"230
47Aaron TasinLBFR6'1"195
98Parker GuiltinanLBFR6'5"240
13Prince WilliamsCBSO6'2"195
16Jelani WhitmoreCBSR6'0"185
19Jamison StarksCBSO6'2"180
26Jason OliverCBSR6'0"170
27Mike LindsayCBSO6'1"185
32Caleb RicksCBSO6'1"195
43Braylon CardwellCBFR6'1"190
46Dareon EdmondsCBFR6'2"180
9Dalesean StaleySSR6'1"190
12Chase ShumateSFR5'11"190
14Isaiah GreenSSO6'1"180
17Kaimana TufagaSFR6'0"200
20Jelani McLaughlinSJR6'0"205
22Max GarrisonSSR5'10"195
23Carsten MamarilSSR5'9"180
24Josiah CoxSSR6'1"197
29Josh HunterSSR5'9"180
30Jalen ThomesonSJR5'11"193
35Tainoa LaveSFR5'11"190
36Rahmeer HendersonSFR6'2"195
37Solomon DavisSJR6'0"200
49Cammeron PurnellSFR6'1"190
38Lane GarnerPKJR5'10"185
80Tyler PrasuhnPKSO6'2"185
82Noah SernaPKSR6'2"200
96Cooper DiLevaPKSR5'10"170
89Tashi DorjePSR6'2"205
93Camden CowgillPJR6'0"195
50Luke WilliamsLSSR6'0"220
60Matthew MercadoLSSO5'11"205
61Chase SchubertLSSO6'1"215
64Connor PoulsonLSSO5'11"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
31.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
24.0
scoring defense
Differential
+7.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
291.5#123
Yards / play
4.9#123
Passing yards / game
101.0#133
Rushing yards / game
190.5#50
First downs / game
18.0#105
3rd down %
33.3%#104
4th down %
33.3%#99
Time of possession
25:50#126
Defense
Yards allowed / game
370.0#96
Yards / play allowed
5.0#65
Pass yards allowed / game
215.5#84
Rush yards allowed / game
154.5#105
3rd down % allowed
36.7%#75
Sacks
3#80
Tackles for loss
6#120
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
0#68
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
4#104
Penalties / game
5.0#33
Penalty yards / game
46.0#47

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

run-leaning

San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 10th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 113th at hitting chunk plays.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

San Diego State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #10
    projected
  • Defensestaying on schedule through the air
    #11
    projected
  • Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #11
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #113
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
7.5 – 3.5
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
6.5
of 9 games
Bowl odds
93%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
82%
vs Oregon State
Toughest
52%
vs Boise State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 8-3 (29%)Bowl eligible 93% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
RBLucky Sutton, Jordin Thomas +1
+6.1 EPA
QBJayden Denegal
+3.2 EPA
TEJackson Ford
+2.2 EPA
WRJacob Bostick, Bert Emanuel Jr. +4
-3.7 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBJayden Denegal
~$489K
EPA +3.20.091/play35 snaps
RBLucky Sutton
~$172K
EPA +4.40.116/play38 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1120th#111
Def0.1345th#77
Explosiveness
Off1.1936th#88
Def1.0585th#22
Field position
Off70.464th#51
Def65.597th#5
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.5868th#45
Def3.4343rd#79
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 4
Margin 0

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.1720th#110
Off · rush
0.1347th#74

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1345th#76
Def0.1430th#97
Passing
Off0.1721st#109
Def0.1465th#49

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.02#74
2nd-level / open-field
1.07 / 0.87
Power / stuff (off)
75.0% / 21.7%
Havoc — total (def)
10.1%#134
Havoc — front 7 / DB
4.7% / 5.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.03
Def0.08
Pass downs
Off0.41
Def0.25

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.13#1250.20#760.41#89
Defense0.02#910.37#1150.18#37

Elo Trajectory

Portland StateFinal
Elo rating 1518 → 1469-49 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.0717th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0851st
  • Offense success rate38%26th
  • Defense success rate allowed43%26th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs42%18th
  • Offense success — passing downs38%74th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs46%35th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs33%23rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.951st
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.9991st
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.784th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.22nd

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.160th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.54th
  • Offense highlight yards1.047th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.5262nd
  • Offense power success0.7756th
  • Defense power success allowed0.9210th
  • Offense stuff rate0.2319th
  • Defense stuff rate0.102nd

Third down

  • Third down conversion35%27th
  • Third down distance faced6.561st
  • Third down conversion allowed41%34th
  • Third down distance forced5.21st

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0134th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0915th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.9116th
  • Points per drive allowed2.833rd
  • Average starting field position2518th
  • Opponent starting field position377th
  • Available yards gained28%10th
  • Available yards allowed62%21st
  • Scoring opportunities per drive64%14th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed90%29th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.416th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.140th
  • Three-and-out rate36%26th
  • Three-and-outs forced0%7th

Roster

  • Returning usage100%99th
  • Returning EPA18372nd
  • Team talent composite60936th
  • Recruiting class rank83.040th
  • Recruiting class points18440th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Balanced offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.110#111 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.169#109
Rush EPA/play
+0.133#76
Explosiveness
1.189#88
Pts/opportunity
4.58#45
Success rate
34.7%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.036 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.127#77 · average
Havoc rate (total)
10.1%#134
Front-7 havoc
4.7%
DB havoc
5.4%
Big play rate allowed
1.048#22
Success rate allowed
43.3%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
31.5
Points allowed/game
24.0
Scoring margin/game
+7.5
Turnover margin
+0won 4 · lost 4
Production returning
99%
Talent rank (247)
#89

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE20thEXPLOSIVENESS36thFINISHING68thFIELD POS64thDEFENSE45thHAVOC3th50th100th
Offense
20th
Explosiveness
36th
Finishing
68th
Field Pos
64th
Defense
45th
Havoc
3th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+3.8
#56
Offense
-6.6
#112
Defense
-10.4
#20
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.912.80
Starting field positionown 24.6own 37.1
Available yards27.8%62.4%
Scoring opportunities63.6%90.0%
Points per opportunity1.433.11
Three-and-out rate36.4%0.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
35.2%
Expected, given the spots
57.9%
Over expected
-22.8
Fourth down vs peers
-10
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. San Diego State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to San Diego State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Boston CollegeSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.102Def EPA/play +0.148Elo 1379
Match
99%
South FloridaSP+ -3.1
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.146Elo 1679
Match
98%
DukeSP+ +6.6
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.098Elo 1607
Match
97%
WisconsinSP+ -1.5
Off EPA/play +0.114Def EPA/play +0.177Elo 1475
Match
97%
WyomingSP+ -15.2
Off EPA/play +0.083Def EPA/play +0.167Elo 1300
Match
97%
Sam HoustonSP+ -21.5
Off EPA/play +0.145Def EPA/play +0.092Elo 1164
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +11.2, #32 of 1282016: +14.9, #15 of 1282017: +7.9, #40 of 1302018: +1.4, #55 of 1302019: +0.9, #57 of 1302020: +9.1, #33 of 1242021: +9.6, #42 of 1302022: -2.0, #72 of 1312023: -14.2, #106 of 1332024: -23.9, #128 of 1342025: +11.6, #35 of 1362026: +3.8, #56 of 138
20152026
Now +3.8 · #56 of 138Best +14.9 in 2016Worst -23.9 in 2024

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20259-46-2
69%
9.5-0.5
20243-92-5
25%
3.5-0.5
20234-82-6
33%
5.6-1.6
20227-65-3
54%
7.6-0.6
202112-27-2
86%
10.4+1.6
20204-44-2
50%
5.5-1.5
201910-35-3
77%
8.6+1.4
20187-64-4
54%
7.1-0.1
201710-36-2
77%
9.1+0.9

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

2.8%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.3-5.0. Wins the Pac-12 in 14%.

If they finish with…

83%
1 loss
24%
2 losses
0.4%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 83%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 2.7 points since preseason.

  • At 1 loss they are 83% where the average Pac-12 team is 80%.
  • The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 2.8% of seasons, having won their league in 94% of those.

San Diego State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk12at Boise State9.3
  • wk6at Oregon State4.9
  • wk3vs James Madison4.7
  • wk4at Toledo4.1
  • wk8at Colorado State4.1
  • wk11vs Utah State4.1

Who to root for

Games San Diego State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico1.3
  • wk11UNLV over New Mexico0.9
  • wk12Wyoming over New Mexico0.9
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.7
  • wk7Hawai'i over New Mexico0.7
  • wk9Texas State over Boise State0.7
The full playoff picture →

Pac-12

0-0 in league play, projected 4.0-3.02 of 8 by title odds
14%
Wins the Pac-12
31%
Reaches the title game

The Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk12San Diego State at Boise State26.1
  • wk6San Diego State at Oregon State16.2
  • wk11Utah State at San Diego State14.8
  • wk7Fresno State at San Diego State14.4

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →

If not the playoff, then

64%
Bowl eligible
61%
Placed in a bowl
2.8%
In the playoff
37%
Season over in November

San Diego State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Holiday Bowl19%
  • Alamo Bowl17%
  • Sun Bowl14%
  • Las Vegas Bowl7.6%
  • Independence Bowl1.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent San Diego State a player since 2010 — 35 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of San Diego State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Junipero SerraCA80
LibertyNV60
Rancho CucamongaCA41
Corona CentennialCA40
PunahouHI30
St. AugustineLA30
ChaminadeCA20
ServiteCA20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.