vs Northern Illinois · Wk 3Win prob 98%Model -31.6Schedule & Results
BYUBYUL17-28✓Wk 3vsNIUNorthern Illinois-31.698%Wk 4@
WSUWashington State-8.972%Wk 5vs
CINCincinnati-13.680%Wk 6@
WVUWest Virginia-14.882%Wk 8vs
ISUIowa State-17.387%Wk 9@
TTUTexas Tech+21.47%Wk 10vs
TCUTCU-11.177%Wk 11vs
UTAHUtah-0.250%Wk 12@
KSUKansas State-1.754%Wk 13vs
ASUArizona State-9.773%Team Leaders
Noah FifitaPassing492 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Kedrick ReescanoRushing97 yds · 2 TD · 3.9 avg
Gio RichardsonReceiving13 rec · 144 yds · 0 TD
Taye BrownTackles15 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Arizona
All news →Arizona's power edge can't cover BYU's explosive passing
Northern Arizona Never Lost on Third Down. It Lost on First
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Fifita | QB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 7 | Sawyer Anderson | QB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Dallas, TX |
| 9 | Oscar Rios | QB | FR | 6'3" | 170 | Norwalk, CA |
| 15 | Mason Bray | QB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 16 | Luke Haugo | QB | SO | 6'5" | 205 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 0 | Wesley Yarbrough | RB | SO | 5'10" | 210 | Houston, TX |
| 3 | Kedrick Reescano | RB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | New Caney, TX |
| 6 | Cornelius Warren III | RB | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 21 | Ismail Mahdi | RB | SR | 5'9" | 185 | Murphy, TX |
| 24 | Quincy Craig | RB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Garden Grove, CA |
| 27 | Lohgan Bottjer | RB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Limon, CO |
| 28 | Anthony Wilhite II | RB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Tucson, AZ |
| 44 | Antwan Roberts Jr. | RB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Nashville, TN |
| 2 | R.J. Mosley | WR | FR | 6'3" | 197 | Brentwood, CA |
| 4 | DJ Jordan | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Watts, CA |
| 5 | Giovanni Richardson | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Chandler, AZ |
| 10 | Jordan Ross | WR | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Compton, CA |
| 11 | Chris Hunter III | WR | SR | 6'1" | 195 | New Orleans, LA |
| 12 | Tre Spivey | WR | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Chandler, AZ |
| 17 | Isaiah Mizell | WR | SO | 6'1" | 170 | Orlando, FL |
| 18 | Brandon Phelps | WR | JR | 6'3" | 207 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 20 | Caleb Smith | WR | FR | 5'8" | 170 | Allen, TX |
| 81 | Scotty Brennan | WR | SO | 6'4" | 185 | Los Gatos, CA |
| 82 | Landon Kelsey | WR | SO | 6'4" | 215 | Portland, OR |
| 84 | Rodney Gallagher III | WR | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Uniontown, PA |
| 89 | Jordan McCord III | WR | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Soquel, CA |
| 8 | Shane King | TE | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Gainesville, GA |
| 14 | Cole Rusk | TE | SR | 6'5" | 245 | Rock Island, IL |
| 39 | Lachlan Teissier | TE | SO | 6'8" | 260 | Perth |
| 83 | Tyler Mustain | TE | SR | 6'2" | 237 | Tucson, AZ |
| 85 | Kellan Ford | TE | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Danville, CA |
| 86 | Arthur Ban | TE | JR | 6'4" | 247 | Portland, OR |
| 87 | Tyler Powell | TE | SR | 6'7" | 245 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 88 | Henry Gabalis | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Duvall, WA |
| 54 | Keona Peat | OL | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Chandler, AZ |
| 55 | Nathan Hale | OL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | Orange, CA |
| 56 | Sione Tohi | OL | SO | 6'3" | 330 | San Francisco, CA |
| 58 | Zach Henning | OL | SR | 6'4" | 310 | Centennial, CO |
| 59 | Rhino Tapa'atoutai | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Mission Hills, CA |
| 62 | Javian Goo | OL | SO | 6'4" | 305 | Kapolei, HI |
| 63 | Alexander Doost | OL | SR | 6'7" | 335 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 66 | Jaxon Griffin | OL | SO | 6'6" | 295 | Mesa, AZ |
| 68 | Malachi Joyner | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 71 | Tristan Bounds | OL | SR | 6'8" | 320 | Bethesda, MD |
| 72 | Louis Akpa | OL | SO | 6'6" | 310 | South San Francisco, CA |
| 73 | Matthew Lado | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Glendale, AZ |
| 76 | Khalil Sanogo | OL | FR | 6'4" | 340 | Dallas, TX |
| 77 | Jake Griffin | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Mesa, AZ |
| 78 | Grayson Stovall | OL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Chandler, AZ |
| 79 | Isaac Perez | OL | SR | 6'3" | 335 | Corona, CA |
| 3 | Tre Smith | DL | SR | 6'5" | 265 | Mesa, AZ |
| 27 | Keytrin Harris | DL | FR | 6'6" | 305 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 38 | Kevin Moorer Jr. | DL | JR | 6'3" | 280 | Mobile, AL |
| 41 | Julian Savaiinaea | DL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | Honolulu, HI |
| 42 | Dominic Lolesio | DL | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Long Beach, CA |
| 44 | Prince Williams | DL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 45 | Victory Johnson | DL | SR | 6'3" | 255 | San Diego, CA |
| 51 | Kaisi Lafitaga | DL | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Pago Pago |
| 52 | Dustin Petras | DL | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Hilo, HI |
| 53 | Christian Madoski | DL | SR | 6'3" | 263 | Glendale, AZ |
| 78 | Manoah Faupusa | DL | FR | 6'0" | 377 | Long Beach, CA |
| 91 | Porter Patton | DL | SO | 6'7" | 270 | Austin, TX |
| 92 | Ezra Funa | DL | SR | 6'2" | 295 | Anaheim, CA |
| 95 | Leroy Palu | DL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Corona, CA |
| 96 | Zac Siulepa | DL | SR | 6'6" | 367 | Gold Coast, QLD |
| 99 | Mays Pese | DL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Santa Barbara, CA |
| 0 | Dash Fifita | LB | FR | 5'7" | 190 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 6 | Taye Brown | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Chandler, AZ |
| 7 | Chase Kennedy | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Dallas, TX |
| 10 | Myron Robinson | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | San Antonio, TX |
| 11 | Jabari Mann | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | San Mateo, CA |
| 16 | Everett Roussaw Jr. | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Atlanta, GA |
| 18 | Carter Jones | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Coto De Caza, CA |
| 19 | Max Harris | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Mansfield, TX |
| 26 | Coleman Patmon | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Del Valle, TX |
| 29 | Jaden Parker | LB | FR | 6'1" | 255 | Anna, TX |
| 32 | Nela Taliauli | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | Puna, HI |
| 36 | Dominic Hanger | LB | SR | 6'1" | 223 | Chandler, AZ |
| 39 | Jacob Buggie | LB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 40 | Brandon Craddock | LB | SR | 5'10" | 223 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 48 | Cooper Blomstrom | LB | SR | 6'2" | 245 | Dover, NH |
| 55 | Leviticus Su'a | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Perris, CA |
| 8 | Jay'Vion Cole | CB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Oakland, CA |
| 9 | Tyrese Boss | CB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Rialto, CA |
| 12 | Dwight Bootle II | CB | SR | 5'9" | 175 | Miami, FL |
| 24 | Kingston Spivey | CB | FR | 5'8" | 185 | Chandler, AZ |
| 25 | Zuri Watson | CB | JR | 5'10" | 187 | Saint Petersburg, FL |
| 28 | Swayde Griffin | CB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Lago Vista, TX |
| 30 | Xaier Hiler | CB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Denton, TX |
| 31 | Aiden Miller | CB | JR | 5'11" | 193 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2 | Daylen Austin | S | SR | 6'0" | 193 | Long Beach, CA |
| 4 | Matai Tagoa'i | S | SO | 6'4" | 205 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 13 | Cam Chapa | S | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Aurora, CO |
| 14 | Hannibal Navies II | S | FR | 6'2" | 207 | Buford, GA |
| 15 | Malcolm Hartzog Jr. | S | SR | 5'8" | 190 | Silver Creek, MS |
| 17 | Lee Molette III | S | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Nashville, TN |
| 20 | Dajon Hinton | S | SO | 5'10" | 185 | San Diego, CA |
| 21 | Johno Price | S | SR | 6'2" | 183 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 23 | Gavin Hunter | S | SR | 6'2" | 208 | Mililani, HI |
| 33 | Kason Brown | S | SO | 6'4" | 203 | Big Lake, TX |
| 34 | James Pike | S | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 35 | Quinn Olson | S | JR | 6'3" | 205 | Sioux City, IA |
| 47 | Harold Lusk II | S | SO | 6'2" | 212 | Seaside, CA |
| 19 | Michael Salgado-Medina | PK | JR | 6'3" | 203 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 34 | Carter Schwartz | P | JR | 6'3" | 227 | Louisville, KY |
| 37 | Chase Ridley | P | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Perth |
| 98 | Ian French | P | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Dripping Springs, TX |
| 43 | Drew Nicolson | LS | SR | 5'11" | 235 | Tempe, AZ |
| 47 | Braxton Hart | LS | FR | 5'9" | 207 | Tulsa, OK |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Arizona throws it: Brent Brennan's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#14projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#20projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.78#18
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.31 / 1.29
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 10.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 18.0%#49
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.7% / 6.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.07#76 | 0.22#69 | 0.61#58 |
| Defense | -0.05#68 | 0.29#99 | 0.64#108 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2045th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1242nd
- Offense success rate51%79th
- Defense success rate allowed34%68th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%75th
- Offense success — passing downs40%78th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs37%76th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%53rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.09th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.59th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.631st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.271st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.888th
- Defense line yards allowed2.561st
- Offense highlight yards1.255th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.4176th
- Offense power success0.8880th
- Defense power success allowed0.5078th
- Offense stuff rate0.1090th
- Defense stuff rate0.2988th
Third down
- Third down conversion57%88th
- Third down distance faced7.136th
- Third down conversion allowed36%53rd
- Third down distance forced9.699th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3297th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0033rd
Drives
- Points per drive1.946th
- Points per drive allowed3.123rd
- Average starting field position2846th
- Opponent starting field position2849th
- Available yards gained49%48th
- Available yards allowed52%48th
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%21st
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.854th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.140th
- Three-and-out rate22%57th
- Three-and-outs forced33%74th
Roster
- Returning usage69%81st
- Returning EPA20277th
- Team talent composite70061st
- Recruiting class rank42.070th
- Recruiting class points21770th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.062 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 54.1%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.3%
- Over expected
- +1.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +3
- Fourth down vs the model
- -20
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Arizona is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Arizona in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-3 | 69% | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 1-11 | 1-8 | 8% | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0% | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 4.0 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 42% | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 7.2 | -0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 7.1-5.0. Top-four bye in 1.0%. Wins the Big 12 in 2.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 5.2 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 70% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.
Arizona’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at Texas Tech19.0
- wk12at Kansas State13.8
- wk11vs Utah13.0
- wk10vs TCU9.7
- wk5vs Cincinnati9.1
- wk13vs Arizona State8.8
Who to root for
Games Arizona is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Eastern Michigan over Lindenwood1.4
- wk5Colorado over Texas Tech1.4
- wk13TCU over Texas Tech1.2
- wk4Illinois over Ohio State1.1
- wk8Cincinnati over Texas Tech1.1
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia1.0
Big 12
0-1 in league play, projected 4.4-4.68 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Arizona at Texas Tech8.5
- wk12Arizona at Kansas State5.8
- wk11Utah at Arizona5.4
- wk10TCU at Arizona3.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Arizona is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Liberty Bowl9.1%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl8.9%
- Texas Bowl8.8%
- Rate Bowl8.6%
- Independence Bowl8.3%
- First Responder Bowl8.3%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 19 have sent Arizona a player since 2010 — 54 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Arizona's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.