@ Temple · Wk 4Win prob 69%Model -8.2Schedule & Results
USFSouth FloridaL24-28✗Wk 4@TEMTemple-8.269%Wk 5@
LTLouisiana Tech-8.069%Wk 6vs
TULNTulane-12.578%Wk 7vs
FAUFlorida Atlantic-10.374%Wk 8@
TLSATulsa-7.467%Wk 9@
MEMMemphis-2.957%Wk 10vs
AFAir Force-10.074%Wk 12vs
ECUEast Carolina-12.178%Wk 13@
RICERice-13.580%Wk 15vs
NAVYNavy-13.279%Team Leaders
Cale HellumsPassing150 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Zach MundellRushing150 yds · 2 TD · 21.4 avg
Samari HowardReceiving5 rec · 62 yds · 0 TD
Elijah WaltonTackles15 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Latest on Army
All news →Army's defense is built to erase South Florida's chunk plays
Army Didn't Beat Third Down. It Deleted It
The number-crunchers keep low-balling Army, Navy and Air Force — about 1.65 points a game, every year
Army outplayed Florida State by 104 spots — and barely anyone recruited them
Notre Dame Turns the Bronx Into a Track Meet, 49-14
Roster · 194 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cale Hellums | QB | SR | 5'11" | 208 | Tomball, TX |
| 4 | Ethan Washington | QB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Suwanee, GA |
| 6 | Bryson Luter | QB | SO | 5'11" | 203 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 9 | Santiago Fernandez | QB | FR | 6'3" | 208 | Tomball, TX |
| 10 | Harrison Orr | QB | SO | 6'1" | 218 | Destin, FL |
| 11 | Tanner Wilson | QB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Fresno, CA |
| 15 | Andrew Heidel | QB | FR | 6'0" | 212 | Bradenton, FL |
| 7 | Godspower Nwawuihe | RB | SO | 5'10" | 208 | Garland, TX |
| 20 | Tim Kloska | RB | JR | 5'11" | 219 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 21 | Finbar Malloy | RB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Fairfield, CT |
| 29 | Elijah Bechtel | RB | FR | 6'1" | 206 | San Diego, CA |
| 30 | Brennan Fisher | RB | JR | 5'11" | 225 | Perkasie, PA |
| 31 | Joe Callerame | RB | FR | 5'10" | 209 | Vancouver, WA |
| 33 | Jake Rendina | RB | SR | 5'11" | 240 | Kalispell, MT |
| 34 | Carson Smith | RB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Middletown, MD |
| 36 | Demani Stewart | RB | SO | 5'9" | 233 | Leander, TX |
| 37 | Gavin Madigan | RB | FR | 5'11" | 218 | Wadsworth, OH |
| 38 | Isaiah Linyear | RB | FR | 5'11" | 212 | Niskayuna, NY |
| 39 | Chevas Gregory | RB | FR | 5'9" | 200 | Nanakuli, HI |
| 49 | Elzie Slaughter | RB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Paola, KS |
| 1 | Zach Mundell | WR | SR | 5'9" | 185 | Arlington, TX |
| 1 | Riley Reed | WR | FR | 5'7" | 172 | Gordon, TX |
| 2 | Aden Self | WR | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Spring, TX |
| 3 | Christian Cherilus | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Washington, DC |
| 5 | Chace Knox | WR | JR | 5'8" | 171 | Wilmington, DE |
| 5 | Noah Dolbin | WR | FR | 6'4" | 196 | Orwigsburg, PA |
| 8 | Matthew Perkins | WR | FR | 5'11" | 187 | Jackson, MS |
| 10 | Josh Milhollin | WR | FR | 5'10" | 171 | Roswell, GA |
| 11 | Tobi Olawole | WR | SR | 6'1" | 206 | Buford, GA |
| 13 | Jackson Kreutzer | WR | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Lexington, KY |
| 14 | Jakiel Kendricks | WR | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 16 | Jaden Pydyn | WR | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Northville, MI |
| 18 | Brady Mott | WR | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Vacaville, CA |
| 18 | Aiden Burgy | WR | FR | 6'3" | 203 | Quakertown, PA |
| 19 | Adam Buffington | WR | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Friendswood, TX |
| 22 | BJ Alleyne | WR | SO | 5'8" | 190 | Wilmington, DE |
| 23 | Lloyd Benson III | WR | SR | 5'8" | 193 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 25 | Stroman Bridges | WR | SO | 5'11" | 209 | Midland, TX |
| 26 | David Clerk | WR | SR | 5'9" | 175 | Burleson, TX |
| 27 | Samari Howard | WR | SR | 5'8" | 189 | Temple, TX |
| 40 | Charlie Daly | WR | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Chicago, IL |
| 43 | Stratton Fuller | WR | SO | 5'10" | 189 | Columbia City, IN |
| 45 | Mark Andrzejewski | WR | FR | 6'2" | 189 | Owens Cross Roads, AL |
| 46 | Mason Smith | WR | SO | 6'2" | 207 | Edmond, OK |
| 81 | Kofi Eduful | WR | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Forney, TX |
| 82 | Brian Ray III | WR | SO | 6'0" | 213 | Folsom, CA |
| 83 | Kurt Thompson | WR | SR | 6'3" | 204 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 84 | Brady Anderson | WR | JR | 6'1" | 209 | Edina, MN |
| 89 | Kavon Pointer | WR | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Jonesboro, AR |
| 44 | Parker Poloskey | TE | SR | 6'4" | 251 | Boca Raton, FL |
| 47 | Jackson Blanchard | TE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Castle Rock, CO |
| 48 | Sam Sartin | TE | FR | 6'3" | 218 | Cleveland, TN |
| 49 | Josh Greer | TE | SO | 6'2" | 239 | Uniontown, OH |
| 80 | Brian Dyer | TE | SR | 6'4" | 247 | Plano, TX |
| 81 | Mason Mixon | TE | FR | 6'3" | 234 | Rosenberg, TX |
| 85 | Noah Prior | TE | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Bishop, GA |
| 86 | Tex Brannan | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | Whitesboro, TX |
| 87 | James Rothstein | TE | JR | 6'5" | 257 | Pleasanton, CA |
| 88 | Ronan Boyle | TE | FR | 6'5" | 214 | Fairport, NY |
| 50 | Xzavier Grabher | OL | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Racine, WI |
| 51 | Brady Small | OL | SR | 6'0" | 318 | Mount Ephraim, NJ |
| 51 | Jake Clapper | OL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Hudson, OH |
| 52 | Mack O'Halloran | OL | JR | 6'3" | 301 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 53 | James Bland | OL | SO | 6'2" | 311 | Midlothian, VA |
| 54 | Gregory Meidl | OL | SO | 6'3" | 289 | Mankato, MN |
| 55 | Carter Glab | OL | FR | 6'2" | 284 | Omaha, NE |
| 56 | Tyler Lee | OL | SR | 6'2" | 312 | Tomball, TX |
| 56 | Michael Goodale | OL | FR | 6'4" | 289 | Chiefland, FL |
| 57 | Kyle Baltazar | OL | SO | 6'2" | 286 | Park Ridge, IL |
| 58 | Henry Appleton | OL | SR | 6'2" | 291 | Denton, TX |
| 58 | Rhett VanBoening | OL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Libertyville, IL |
| 59 | Jack Manning | OL | SO | 6'2" | 295 | Parkville, MO |
| 60 | Sam Waters | OL | JR | 6'4" | 286 | Boerne, TX |
| 63 | Ben Britton | OL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Mount Pleasant, SC |
| 64 | Brandon Wraalstad | OL | JR | 6'4" | 292 | Oconomowoc, WI |
| 65 | Zach Tomosovich | OL | SO | 6'5" | 319 | Trafford, PA |
| 66 | Tim Savchuk | OL | SO | 6'3" | 306 | Oswego, IL |
| 67 | Wes Shaw | OL | JR | 6'3" | 295 | Tampa, FL |
| 69 | Miles Hagan | OL | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Spring, TX |
| 70 | Braeden Helmkamp | OL | JR | 6'5" | 304 | Washington, PA |
| 71 | Paolo Gennarelli | OL | SR | 6'2" | 301 | Kane, IL |
| 71 | Noah Marquez | OL | FR | 6'3" | 262 | Springboro, OH |
| 72 | Jordan Sullivan | OL | FR | 6'3" | 272 | Greenville, SC |
| 73 | Ben Konopka | OL | SO | 6'3" | 289 | Huntley, IL |
| 74 | Teddy Williams | OL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Grand Ledge, MI |
| 74 | Zak Stoilov | OL | FR | 6'4" | 281 | Park Ridge, IL |
| 75 | Kyle Kloska | OL | SR | 6'2" | 302 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 75 | Donald Jurek | OL | FR | 6'1" | 308 | Adkins, TX |
| 76 | Max Stober | OL | JR | 6'6" | 290 | Redondo Beach, CA |
| 77 | Chuck Johnson | OL | JR | 6'3" | 289 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 78 | Xavier Archawski | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Ardmore, PA |
| 79 | Jonah Zimmerman | OL | SR | 6'3" | 298 | Oceanside, CA |
| 79 | Donovan Wilkinson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 308 | Riverton, NJ |
| 44 | Thomas Ghislandi | DL | FR | 6'4" | 273 | Chicago, IL |
| 45 | Campbell Sager | DL | JR | 6'4" | 257 | Portland, OR |
| 52 | Kody Harris-Miller | DL | SR | 6'1" | 299 | Middletown, DE |
| 54 | Jaden Rogers | DL | FR | 6'4" | 252 | Brighton, MI |
| 56 | Nick Buchys | DL | JR | 6'2" | 275 | Langhorne, PA |
| 82 | Will McDonald | DL | FR | 6'7" | 251 | Needham, MA |
| 83 | William Brockmeier | DL | SO | 6'3" | 260 | Naples, FL |
| 84 | Dontae Samuels | DL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Loganville, GA |
| 85 | Xander Walker | DL | SO | 6'3" | 259 | Mansfield, TX |
| 87 | Jadon Bumbaugh | DL | SO | 6'2" | 270 | Rockville, MD |
| 88 | Donovan Poe | DL | SR | 6'1" | 270 | Long Beach, CA |
| 90 | Jacob Cotterill | DL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Summerville, SC |
| 91 | Sean Donovan | DL | JR | 6'2" | 285 | Danbury, CT |
| 92 | Sam Zagame | DL | JR | 6'2" | 253 | Clermont, FL |
| 92 | Ray Dixon | DL | FR | 6'0" | 241 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 93 | Grayson Baker | DL | JR | 6'7" | 280 | Worcester, MA |
| 94 | Javon Smith | DL | JR | 6'2" | 254 | Kansas City, MO |
| 95 | Matt Gemma | DL | SO | 6'1" | 290 | Flemington, NJ |
| 96 | Dillon Stowers | DL | SR | 6'3" | 265 | Lynchburg, VA |
| 96 | Hendrix Beran | DL | FR | 6'4" | 260 | Charleston, SC |
| 97 | Cael Newton | DL | JR | 6'5" | 265 | Punta Gorda, FL |
| 98 | Nehemiah Allen | DL | FR | 5'10" | 288 | Spring, TX |
| 99 | Jack Bousum | DL | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Annapolis, MD |
| 1 | Deion Miller | LB | FR | 5'11" | 230 | Flowery Branch, GA |
| 5 | Phillip Goodrich | LB | FR | 5'11" | 218 | Sunrise, FL |
| 10 | Ryan Wells | LB | FR | 6'2" | 211 | Rincon, GA |
| 17 | Christian Winston | LB | FR | 6'2" | 222 | Marietta, GA |
| 19 | Jaquavious Moss | LB | SO | 5'11" | 246 | Eufaula, AL |
| 21 | Baylor Newsom | LB | SR | 6'1" | 224 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 23 | Max Phenicie | LB | SO | 6'0" | 219 | Zionsville, IN |
| 29 | Kai Woolfolk | LB | SO | 6'0" | 228 | Mason, OH |
| 32 | Cameron Binkowski | LB | FR | 6'0" | 238 | Haymarket, VA |
| 34 | Victor Afolabi | LB | SO | 6'1" | 227 | Chesterfield, VA |
| 36 | Isaiah Birl | LB | SR | 6'0" | 225 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 39 | Elijah Easley | LB | SO | 6'0" | 219 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 40 | Malcolm Robertson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 208 | Wrentham, MA |
| 42 | Elijah Walton | LB | JR | 6'0" | 221 | San Antonio, TX |
| 43 | Khaled Waliagha | LB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Angie, LA |
| 43 | Samuel Hayward | LB | FR | 6'3" | 227 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 46 | Nick McGlynn | LB | SO | 6'1" | 233 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 47 | Noah Nixon | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Orlando, FL |
| 48 | Bryson Banks | LB | SO | 5'8" | 229 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 49 | Christian Yousefzadeh | LB | SR | 6'3" | 226 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 50 | Jackson Weingart | LB | SO | 6'1" | 228 | Carmel, IN |
| 51 | Jared Anthony | LB | FR | 5'10" | 232 | Conyers, GA |
| 55 | Jacob Mainord | LB | SO | 6'0" | 229 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 57 | Brendan Foley | LB | FR | 6'0" | 217 | Pewaukee, WI |
| 58 | Jacob Hinton | LB | SO | 6'4" | 216 | Greenfield, IN |
| 59 | Xavier Ryan | LB | SO | 5'11" | 225 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 1 | Harrison Mass | CB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Cypress, TX |
| 2 | Julian Porter | CB | SO | 6'1" | 196 | Saint Johns, FL |
| 3 | Denzell Watkins | CB | FR | 5'9" | 171 | Duluth, GA |
| 4 | Nathan Adejokun | CB | SO | 5'10" | 199 | Melissa, TX |
| 7 | Jaydan Mayes | CB | SR | 5'10" | 188 | Fairfield, OH |
| 7 | Jaylen Noisette | CB | FR | — | — | Stratford, CT |
| 9 | Rob Houston | CB | JR | 5'10" | 177 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 14 | Wanye Chukes | CB | FR | 5'10" | 154 | Loganville, GA |
| 16 | Taps Hananda | CB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | New Braunfels, TX |
| 17 | Jaxon Hammond | CB | SR | 5'10" | 172 | Memphis, TN |
| 18 | Devan Moss | CB | JR | 5'8" | 175 | Birmingham, AL |
| 20 | David Jakande | CB | FR | 5'10" | 194 | Sugar Land, TX |
| 23 | Timothy Wallace | CB | FR | 5'11" | 183 | Mililani, HI |
| 32 | Louis Blakely | CB | FR | 5'11" | 186 | Montclair, CA |
| 34 | Darian Smith | CB | FR | 5'10" | 181 | Downingtown, PA |
| 10 | Cole Searight | DB | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 15 | Zane Tallman | DB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Peoria, AZ |
| 29 | David Green | DB | FR | 5'8" | 196 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 31 | Caden Brungard | DB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Scranton, PA |
| 33 | CJ Martin | DB | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Ironton, OH |
| 37 | Daniel Ogordi | DB | JR | 5'11" | 212 | Laurel, MD |
| 3 | Stephen Nnadozie | S | SR | 6'0" | 187 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 8 | Jaylen Jones | S | SO | 5'11" | 208 | San Tan Valley, AZ |
| 11 | David Thom-Rogers | S | SO | 6'2" | 198 | Montclair, NJ |
| 13 | Caleb Williams | S | JR | 5'10" | 195 | Canton, MI |
| 21 | Kayden Soares | S | FR | 5'9" | 182 | Easton, CT |
| 22 | Larry Pickett Jr. | S | JR | 6'1" | 206 | Raleigh, NC |
| 26 | Henry Hulbert | S | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Charlotte, NC |
| 27 | JT Poynton | S | SO | 5'11" | 193 | Frankfort, IL |
| 28 | Brian Barton | S | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Mansfield, TX |
| 30 | Ethan Bradshaw | S | FR | 5'10" | 182 | Berlin, MD |
| 32 | Christopher Williams | S | SR | 5'9" | 197 | San Diego, CA |
| 33 | Victor McNeal | S | FR | 5'11" | 192 | Bristow, VA |
| 37 | Owen Madden | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Cashiers, NC |
| 39 | Gerritt Gray | S | FR | 5'11" | 191 | Moorpark, CA |
| 17 | Cole Bowers | PK | FR | 6'0" | 209 | Steubenville, OH |
| 90 | Bryson Hosea | PK | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Roswell, GA |
| 91 | Joey Scardina | PK | SO | 5'10" | 192 | Columbia, MO |
| 95 | Dawson Jones | PK | JR | 5'11" | 184 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 96 | Luca Guerra | PK | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Miami Springs, FL |
| 97 | Jake Hulstein | PK | JR | 6'2" | 223 | Cedar Falls, IA |
| 16 | Ryker Floyd | P | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 36 | Grant Horvath | P | FR | 6'1" | 192 | Moseley, VA |
| 46 | James Wagenseller | P | SR | 6'4" | 225 | Poway, CA |
| 93 | Andrew Astone | P | SO | 6'1" | 206 | Littleton, CO |
| 98 | Matthew Faulk | P | JR | 6'0" | 196 | Mill Creek, WA |
| 38 | Owen Stecker | LS | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Ho Ho Kus, NJ |
| 40 | Robby Belmarez | LS | FR | 5'11" | 191 | Austin, TX |
| 53 | JB Cook | LS | SO | 6'2" | 208 | Mountain Brook, AL |
| 55 | Owen Walter | LS | SR | 6'0" | 222 | Arlington Heights, IL |
| 66 | Drew Prieto | LS | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Atlanta, GA |
| 67 | Ryan Snipes | LS | JR | 6'4" | 212 | Roswell, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 131st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#130projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.88#19
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.47 / 2.39
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 10.8%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.5%#75
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.2% / 7.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.19#46 | 0.41#39 | 0.78#40 |
| Defense | 0.16#116 | -0.04#41 | 0.42#78 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.6999th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1178th
- Offense success rate65%98th
- Defense success rate allowed31%67th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs73%99th
- Offense success — passing downs31%38th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs39%63rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs19%75th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.364th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.8597th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.169th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs3.097th
Trenches
- Offense line yards4.799th
- Defense line yards allowed2.368th
- Offense highlight yards4.099th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2176th
- Offense power success0.8369th
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.0594th
- Defense stuff rate0.2467th
Third down
- Third down conversion67%96th
- Third down distance faced5.189th
- Third down conversion allowed15%91st
- Third down distance forced7.250th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3785th
- Net success rate — second half0.3289th
Roster
- Returning usage59%70th
- Returning EPA16968th
- Team talent composite3041st
- Recruiting class rank1811st
- Recruiting class points39.91st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.054 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Army is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Army in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 50% | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.9 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 6-6 | 0-1 | 50% | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 6-6 | 1-0 | 50% | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 69% | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 75% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 38% | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 85% | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 77% | 9.6 | +0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.2-5.0. Wins the American Athletic in 9.7%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 97%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.4 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 57% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 4.0% of seasons, having won their league in 92% of those.
Army’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at Memphis9.6
- wk8at Tulsa7.8
- wk15vs Navy7.8
- wk2vs South Florida6.3
- wk10vs Air Force6.2
- wk6vs Tulane6.0
Who to root for
Games Army is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.9
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.9
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.8
- wk2UCLA over San Diego State0.7
- wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.7
- wk2North Texas over UNLV0.7
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 5.0-4.05 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Army at Memphis17.9
- wk15Navy at Army16.7
- wk8Army at Tulsa15.0
- wk2South Florida at Army12.9
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Army is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 8.8% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Gasparilla Bowl14%
- Military Bowl9.0%
- Fenway Bowl8.7%
- Armed Forces Bowl7.9%
- Birmingham Bowl6.8%
- First Responder Bowl4.7%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 29 have sent Army a player since 2010 — 62 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Army's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.