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NC State

NC State Wolfpack

ACC·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1509#66
SP+
-0.7#73
FPI
-1.1
AP
NR
Next@ Vanderbilt · Wk 3Win prob 28%Model +9.2
Talent #32 (757.1)Recruiting class #4960% production returning

Roster · 126 players

FR 29SO 30JR 31SR 36
#PlayerPosClHtWt
10Will WilsonQBSO6'1"230
11CJ BaileyQBJR6'6"213
12Tad HudsonQBSR6'3"227
15Hudson WilharmQBJR6'5"195
16Parker ThompsonQBJR6'2"181
1Jayden ScottRBJR5'10"225
7Davion GauseRBJR5'11"212
14Jonathan PaylorRBJR5'9"182
20Deandre DesinorRBSO5'10"183
24Dylan McCoyRBFR5'8"197
25Darius JohnsonRBSR5'10"205
26Isiah JonesRBJR5'8"200
29RJ BoydRBFR5'10"215
34Noah MossRBFR6'0"200
0Victor SnowWRSR5'8"170
2Joshisa TraderWRJR6'1"190
5Davion DozierWRSR6'3"195
6Ashton LocklearWRSR6'1"188
8Keenan JacksonWRJR6'3"202
12Teddy HoffmannWRSO6'1"181
13Tyran WarrenWRSR6'3"180
21Je'rel BolderWRSO6'0"212
22Aiden SmallsWRFR5'11"183
28Sam DoddWRSO6'2"199
35Jason SchuttWRJR5'7"160
36Cameron CornthwaiteWRJR5'9"183
37Addison CarlsonWRJR5'11"186
39Landon ThompsonWRSO6'2"180
80Ethan DowdyWRSR6'2"197
82Chance RobinsonWRJR6'2"205
83Amiri AckerWRFR6'2"190
85Tyreek CopperWRFR6'1"185
89Jai RichburgWRFR6'2"190
19Preston DouglasTESO6'3"228
44Gus RitcheyTESO6'2"235
45Tex VaughnTEFR6'2"231
84Stephen BrownTEFR6'6"200
86Hunter ProvienceTESR6'5"245
87Ian FlyntTEJR6'4"265
88Vander PloogTESO6'6"230
50Daniel CruzOLJR6'2"315
52Kage PayneOLSO6'2"290
53Matthew ClayOLFR6'3"300
53Keoni RileyOLFR6'3"285
54Teague AndersenOLSR6'5"322
55Katron EvansOLSR6'3"336
55Rylan VannOLSR6'1"285
56Omarian AbrahamOLSO6'1"297
60Joseph CastanedaOLJR6'2"305
62Jimarion McCrimonOLSR6'5"295
64Rico JacksonOLSR6'6"322
67Henri ParisOLSR6'3"295
70TK WhitsetOLSO6'4"300
71Yousef MugharbilOLSR6'5"322
72Spike Sowells Jr.OLSO6'2"312
75Tre AikenOLFR6'3"310
76Michael GibbsOLSO6'4"303
78Trent MitchellOLJR6'5"316
90Josiah VictorOLSO6'2"312
93Carmelo McKenzieOLFR6'1"313
56Brody SmithOTFR6'5"303
73Brady SakowitzOTFR6'6"328
79Kamen SmithOTSR6'5"325
13Joseph AdedireDESR6'3"260
92Chase BondDEJR6'4"265
95JJ Ferguson Jr.DEFR6'3"255
47Adrian FarrowDLSO6'3"265
99AJ PrimDLSR6'2"287
34Colby CronkDTSO6'3"270
57Steven Stokes IIIDTSR6'4"313
80Damaad LewisDTFR6'3"260
88Isaiah ShirleyDTSR6'3"280
98Fabian KimbroughDTSR6'3"283
0Popo AguirreLBSR6'1"235
5Harvey Dyson IIILBSR6'2"248
15AJ RichardsonLBSR6'1"235
19Da'Karri NelsonLBSR6'3"232
19Cole WilsonLBSR6'0"206
25Sterling DixonLBJR6'2"221
30Zane WilliamsLBJR5'11"228
31Bailey BensonLBSO6'0"207
32Caleb GordonLBFR5'11"226
33Ziggy MooreLBFR6'2"210
33Nathan HuffmanLBSO5'11"187
35LaCorian HodgeLBSO6'2"217
37Lawrence Brown Jr.LBFR6'3"209
38Logan FoustLBJR6'0"205
42Ke'Von CarterLBSO6'3"223
43Koby SarkodieLBFR6'3"215
44Jordan MoretaLBFR6'1"223
45Isaac PetersLBSR6'1"250
46Ryan KlimpLBSR6'0"215
47Jackson MastorLBJR6'0"197
48Hunter JacksonLBSO6'1"217
52David CollinsLBSR6'2"215
53Josh Warren Jr.LBSO6'2"235
58Elijah SatchellLBFR6'3"229
6Asaad Brown Jr.CBJR6'0"199
7Brian Nelson IICBSR6'0"197
8Isaiah CrowellCBSR5'11"185
12Caden GordonCBSO6'1"194
14Jaren SensabaughCBJR6'1"190
22Jackson VickCBSR6'0"190
24Michael TateCBSR6'2"180
26Jordyn BestCBFR5'10"171
27Cam StrongCBSO6'0"183
28Dy'Lan JohnsonCBSO6'4"185
30Jordan JacksonCBFR5'11"165
38DJ DillardCBJR5'8"165
10Ty WhiteDBJR5'10"176
20Ondre EvansDBJR6'0"187
2Ronnie Royal IIISJR5'9"185
3Tristan TeasdellSSO5'11"190
4King MackSSR5'10"195
16Pluto SurrattSFR5'11"196
21Chino AguirreSFR6'0"205
29Brody BarnhardtSJR6'0"190
36Tristen HillSFR5'10"192
39Tristan ClappSSO5'11"179
49Hampton RoderickSSO5'10"175
91Nick KonieczynskiPKJR5'11"215
94Kanoah VinesettPKSR6'1"205
96Jackson WallerPJR6'2"214
97Cristian HarthanPSO6'5"195
60Taylon TranelLSFR5'10"215
92Aiden AriasLSSR6'0"207

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
40.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
17.0
scoring defense
Differential
+23.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
451.0#40
Yards / play
7.5#20
Passing yards / game
199.0#95
Rushing yards / game
252.0#18
First downs / game
20.5#72
3rd down %
52.2%#25
4th down %
0.0%#114
Time of possession
29:50#81
Defense
Yards allowed / game
261.5#36
Yards / play allowed
4.5#44
Pass yards allowed / game
115.5#8
Rush yards allowed / game
146.0#96
3rd down % allowed
18.5%#9
Sacks
3#79
Tackles for loss
9#91
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-1#89
Takeaways
2#75
Giveaways
3#77
Penalties / game
3.0#4
Penalty yards / game
26.5#7

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

pass-leaning

NC State throws it: Dave Doeren's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

NC State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #9
    projected
  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #17
    projected
  • Offensethrowing it
    #18
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #137
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
7.0 – 5.0
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
6.0
of 10 games
Bowl odds
85%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
87%
vs App State
Toughest
28%
vs Vanderbilt

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 7-5 (27%)Bowl eligible 85% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBCJ Bailey, Will Wilson
+17.4 EPA
RBDavion Gause, Jonathan Paylor +1
+8.3 EPA
WRKeenan Jackson, Joshisa Trader +4
+7.0 EPA
TEHunter Provience, Preston Douglas
+5.7 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBCJ Bailey
~$771K
EPA +14.70.341/play43 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3881st#27
Def0.1636th#88
Explosiveness
Off1.3466th#47
Def1.0978th#31
Field position
Off70.359th#57
Def71.261st#55
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off6.0095th#8
Def3.0065th#49
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 3
Margin -1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.5781st#27
Off · rush
0.2470th#42

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2469th#43
Def0.1334th#91
Passing
Off0.5781st#27
Def0.2736th#88

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.19#53
2nd-level / open-field
1.22 / 3.06
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 16.7%
Havoc — total (def)
15.6%#71
Havoc — front 7 / DB
9.0% / 6.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.46
Def0.24
Pass downs
Off0.20
Def-0.10

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.45#60.12#910.69#45
Defense0.01#870.29#99-0.11#6

Elo Trajectory

@VirginiaFinal
Elo rating 1570 → 1509-61 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.146th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.2721st
  • Offense success rate31%10th
  • Defense success rate allowed48%18th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs38%14th
  • Offense success — passing downs21%18th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs53%15th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs23%59th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.531st
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.174th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.241st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.415th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.150th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.315th
  • Offense highlight yards0.2316th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.7745th
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed0.8334th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1463rd
  • Defense stuff rate0.1427th

Third down

  • Third down conversion31%20th
  • Third down distance faced7.042nd
  • Third down conversion allowed21%83rd
  • Third down distance forced3.91st

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.277th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.1316th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.6412th
  • Points per drive allowed3.129th
  • Average starting field position2849th
  • Opponent starting field position3133rd
  • Available yards gained24%11th
  • Available yards allowed51%42nd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive82%54th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed91%27th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.789th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.433rd
  • Three-and-out rate55%8th
  • Three-and-outs forced18%34th

Roster

  • Returning usage62%73rd
  • Returning EPA23486th
  • Team talent composite75777th
  • Recruiting class rank49.065th
  • Recruiting class points21065th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.385#27 · top 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.571#27
Rush EPA/play
+0.242#43
Explosiveness
1.336#47
Pts/opportunity
6.00#8
Success rate
49.3%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.329 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.159#88 · average
Havoc rate (total)
15.6%#71
Front-7 havoc
9.0%
DB havoc
6.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.093#31
Success rate allowed
44.4%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

40.5 PPG offense, 17.0 allowed — +23.5 margin/game
Points per game
40.5
Points allowed/game
17.0
Scoring margin/game
+23.5
Turnover margin
-1won 2 · lost 3
Production returning
60%
Talent rank (247)
#32

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE81thEXPLOSIVENESS66thFINISHING95thFIELD POS59thDEFENSE36thHAVOC49th50th100th
Offense
81th
Explosiveness
66th
Finishing
95th
Field Pos
59th
Defense
36th
Havoc
49th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-1.1
#75
Offense
-0.6
#63
Defense
+0.5
#75
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.643.09
Starting field positionown 28.1own 30.5
Available yards23.8%51.0%
Scoring opportunities81.8%90.9%
Points per opportunity0.783.40
Three-and-out rate54.5%18.2%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
59.5%
Expected, given the spots
54.3%
Over expected
+5.2
Fourth down vs peers
-1
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. NC State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to NC State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
ArmySP+ +2.2
Off EPA/play +0.424Def EPA/play +0.188Elo 1527
Match
97%
PurdueSP+ +1.2
Off EPA/play +0.351Def EPA/play +0.210Elo 1318
Match
96%
Wake ForestSP+ +1.6
Off EPA/play +0.443Def EPA/play +0.163Elo 1516
Match
96%
CincinnatiSP+ +5.9
Off EPA/play +0.449Def EPA/play +0.123Elo 1516
Match
95%
NavySP+ +3.6
Off EPA/play +0.438Def EPA/play +0.213Elo 1550
Match
95%
Kennesaw StateSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.307Def EPA/play +0.154Elo 1373
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +7.8, #44 of 1282016: +11.3, #26 of 1282017: +16.3, #18 of 1302018: +7.0, #35 of 1302019: -16.5, #113 of 1302020: +2.4, #55 of 1242021: +16.1, #12 of 1302022: +4.9, #49 of 1312023: +5.6, #42 of 1332024: +1.7, #62 of 1342025: +7.0, #48 of 1362026: -1.1, #75 of 138
20152026
Now -1.1 · #75 of 138Best +16.3 in 2017Worst -16.5 in 2019

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-1
50%
1.0-0.0
20258-54-4
62%
7.6+0.4
20246-73-5
46%
7.9-1.9
20239-46-2
69%
8.4+0.6
20228-54-4
62%
6.9+1.1
20219-36-2
75%
8.0+1.0
20208-47-3
67%
6.2+1.8
20194-81-7
33%
4.2-0.2
20189-45-3
69%
8.7+0.3
20179-46-2
69%
9.5-0.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.7%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.9-6.1.

If they finish with…

79%
1 loss
9.6%
2 losses
0.5%
3 losses
0.0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 79%. Running the table still leaves it to the committee.

down 6.3 points since preseason — lost 8-34 to Virginia against an expected margin of −5, so −21.2 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 9.6% where the average ACC team is 44%.
  • The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.

NC State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk3at Vanderbilt2.1
  • wk5vs Louisville2.1
  • wk12at Florida State2.0
  • wk13at North Carolina1.9
  • wk10vs Duke1.6
  • wk6vs Wake Forest1.3

Who to root for

Games NC State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.4
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.4
  • wk2Texas Southern over UTEP0.3
  • wk2Air Force over North Dakota State0.3
  • wk2Delaware over Vanderbilt0.3
  • wk8Colorado over Oklahoma State0.3
The full playoff picture →

ACC

0-1 in league play, projected 3.8-5.213 of 17 by title odds
0.3%
Wins the ACC
1.2%
Reaches the title game

The ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →

If not the playoff, then

58%
Bowl eligible
53%
Placed in a bowl
0.7%
In the playoff
46%
Season over in November

NC State is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Military Bowl7.3%
  • Fenway Bowl6.9%
  • Pinstripe Bowl6.4%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl5.9%
  • Sun Bowl5.1%
  • Birmingham Bowl4.6%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent NC State a player since 2010 — 17 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of NC State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
HeritageCA50
Mallard CreekNC41
WestsideSC30
LakewoodFL21
HillgroveGA11
MillbrookNC11
Timber CreekNJ11
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.