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Nebraska Cornhuskers

Big Ten·2-0·
Elo
1705#24
SP+
12.1#27
FPI
14.8
AP
NR
Nextvs North Dakota · Wk 3
Talent #22 (787.5)Recruiting class #8846% production returning

Roster · 117 players

FR 25SO 44JR 30SR 18
#PlayerPosClHtWt
10Anthony ColandreaQBSR6'0"205
12Daniel KaelinQBSO6'3"220
14TJ LateefQBSO6'1"200
16Bode SoukupQBSO6'2"205
21Kwinten IvesRBJR6'3"215
22Isaiah MozeeRBSO6'0"210
23Conor BoothRBFR6'0"215
25Jamal RuleRBFR6'0"205
35Mekhi NelsonRBSO6'0"195
2Jacory Barney Jr.WRJR6'0"170
4Janiran BonnerWRSR6'2"225
11Demitrius BellWRJR6'0"195
11Kwazi GilmerWRJR6'2"190
13Nyziah HunterWRJR6'1"205
15Keelan SmithWRSO6'3"205
17Larry MilesWRFR5'11"175
18Quinn ClarkWRSO6'5"210
19Cortez Mills Jr.WRSO6'0"185
24Nalin ScottWRFR6'2"210
26Roman ManginiWRSR5'10"170
46Connor SchuttWRSO6'6"225
80Jeremiah JonesWRFR6'4"225
81Hayes MillerWRSO6'0"200
84DJ Singleton Jr.WRSO5'10"150
84DJ Singleton Jr.WRSO5'10"150
88Jackson CarpenterWRFR6'1"200
Jamari BrownWRFR5'11"175
Maurice Purify IIWRFR6'4"185
29Carter NelsonTEJR6'5"240
41Luke SorensenTEFR6'3"240
44Luke LindenmeyerTESR6'3"250
48Cayden EchternachTEJR6'4"260
49Danny KingTESO6'4"245
82Eric IngwersonTESO6'7"255
51Justin EvansOLSR6'2"315
54Brendan BlackOLSR6'4"320
55Tree BabaladeOLJR6'5"330
57Elijah PritchettOLSR6'6"325
57Ashton MurphyOLSO6'5"275
58Jake PetersOLSO6'3"300
62Sam SledgeOLJR6'4"300
65Paul MubengaOLJR6'5"315
66Grant BrixOLSO6'6"315
68Preston TaumuaOLSO6'4"325
70Nolan FennessyOLSO6'4"300
71Claude MpoumaOLFR6'8"260
72Gibson PyleOLSO6'5"295
74Brock KnutsonOLJR6'7"310
75Tyler KnaakOLSR6'6"325
76Rex WatermanOLFR6'5"295
77Gunnar GottulaOLJR6'6"305
78Jacob BrandlOLJR6'3"305
79Shawn HammerbeckOLFR6'6"265
Hayden AinsworthOLFR6'5"285
11Cameron LenhardtEDGESR6'3"270
15Anthony Jones Jr.EDGESR6'5"265
17Willis McGahee IVEDGESO6'1"240
55Ethan DudaEDGESO6'5"250
93Kade PietrzakEDGESO6'5"265
94Jordan OchoaEDGESO6'4"240
96Williams NwaneriEDGESO6'7"265
97Mac MarkwayEDGEJR6'4"250
98Conor ConnealyEDGEJR6'4"260
5Riley Van PoppelDTJR6'5"295
34Owen StoudmireDTSR6'1"290
39David HoffkenDTSO6'7"285
44Jahsear WhittingtonDTSO6'0"270
49Malcolm SimpsonDTFR6'3"285
69Landen DavidsonDTSO6'4"305
71Tyson TerryDTFR6'2"310
86Mason GoldmanDTJR6'5"270
92Sua LefotuDTJR6'3"300
95Gabe MooreDTJR6'5"290
99Dylan ParrottDTSR6'5"320
Dylan BerymonDTFR6'2"330
9Vincent Shavers Jr.LBJR6'1"225
24Dexter FosterLBJR6'3"235
30Vincent GenatoneLBSR6'0"225
32Trent UhlirLBSO6'1"235
33Owen ChamblissLBJR6'3"230
35Christian JonesLBFR6'2"235
40Dawson MerrittLBSO6'3"225
42Derek WackerLBSO6'1"230
43Will HawthorneLBFR6'2"225
45Dylan RogersLBJR6'3"240
47Gage StengerLBSR6'2"220
54Jacob BowerLBJR6'1"220
56Pierce MooberryLBFR6'3"220
Jase ReynoldsLBFR6'2"200
10Andrew MarshallCBSR6'0"190
14Amare SandersCBSO6'1"190
16Danny Odem IIICBFR6'0"175
18Larry Tarver Jr.CBSO5'11"175
19Kahmir PrescottCBSO6'1"195
22Victor Evans IIICBSR6'1"180
23Blye HillCBJR6'4"195
25Jeremiah CharlesCBJR6'0"175
29Braylen PrudeCBSO6'4"200
31Mario BufordCBSO6'0"185
37Donovan JonesCBSO6'1"200
39Bryson WebberCBFR6'3"190
12Justyn RhettSJR6'1"200
13Jamir ConnSSR5'11"180
21Rex GuthrieSSO6'1"200
23Caleb BenningSSO5'11"200
26Dwayne McDougle IIISSR5'11"210
30Jasin ShiggsSJR6'1"180
36Rowdy BauerSSO5'11"195
38Thomas D'OnofrioSSO6'1"185
41Tanner TerchSFR6'1"190
84Michael SarikizisPKFR5'10"190
90John HohlPKJR6'0"195
91Kyle CunananPKJR5'10"180
37Kamdyn KochPSO6'2"200
83Archie WilsonPSO6'2"215
87Jack WillsLSSO6'2"220
Kyson GanaLSFR6'1"170

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
52.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
14.0
scoring defense
Differential
+38.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
534.5#14
Yards / play
7.6#18
Passing yards / game
278.5#36
Rushing yards / game
256.0#14
First downs / game
28.0#12
3rd down %
63.6%#7
4th down %
75.0%#31
Time of possession
31:10#54
Defense
Yards allowed / game
236.0#22
Yards / play allowed
4.2#31
Pass yards allowed / game
124.0#12
Rush yards allowed / game
112.0#64
3rd down % allowed
29.6%#41
Sacks
4#60
Tackles for loss
10#79
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#24
Takeaways
3#46
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
8.0#105
Penalty yards / game
65.0#100

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Nebraska is in year 4 under Matt Rhule, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 122nd at defending the run, and they are 121st at holding the line of scrimmage.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Nebraska has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensestaying on schedule through the air
    #35
    projected
  • Offensemoving the ball on the ground
    #35
    projected
  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #35
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defenserunning it
    #122
    projected
  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #121
    projected
  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #117
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
5.95.1
projected final record (now 20)
Exp. wins left
3.9
of 9 games
Bowl odds
62%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
78%
vs Michigan State
Toughest
9%
vs Oregon

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

234567891011
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 6-5 (30%)Bowl eligible 62% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBAnthony Colandrea
+36.8 EPA
RBIsaiah Mozee, Jamal Rule
+28.7 EPA
WRJaniran Bonner, Jacory Barney Jr. +2
+8.9 EPA
TECarter Nelson
-0.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
EPA +36.80.603/play61 snaps
RBJamal Rule
~$314K
EPA +27.31.135/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.5695th#8
Def0.0857th#60
Explosiveness
Off1.5393rd#11
Def1.1959th#57
Field position
Off68.739th#85
Def72.548th#72
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off6.0096th#7
Def3.3846th#75
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
Defense
Off · pass
0.5781st#27
Off · rush
0.5999th#3

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.5998th#4
Def0.0942nd#81
Passing
Off0.5780th#28
Def0.0187th#19

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.81#16
2nd-level / open-field
1.72 / 2.68
Power / stuff (off)
80.0% / 15.0%
Havoc — total (def)
21.2%#27
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.0% / 10.2%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.39
Def0.24
Pass downs
Off1.11
Def-0.22

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.26#240.63#111.12#9
Defense0.09#104-0.09#250.21#45

Elo Trajectory

OhioFinal
Elo rating 15381705+167 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.5496th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1240th
  • Offense success rate56%93rd
  • Defense success rate allowed34%70th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs54%72nd
  • Offense success — passing downs62%99th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs46%39th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs12%99th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.588th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.249th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.396th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.047th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.892nd
  • Defense line yards allowed3.023rd
  • Offense highlight yards2.488th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.6055th
  • Offense power success0.8375th
  • Defense power success allowed1.05th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1473rd
  • Defense stuff rate0.1518th

Third down

  • Third down conversion61%92nd
  • Third down distance faced6.948th
  • Third down conversion allowed36%53rd
  • Third down distance forced7.349th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.2583rd
  • Net success rate — second half0.2391st

Drives

  • Points per drive4.997th
  • Points per drive allowed1.667th
  • Average starting field position3279th
  • Opponent starting field position2764th
  • Available yards gained76%94th
  • Available yards allowed30%90th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive85%64th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed67%87th
  • Points per scoring opportunity5.898th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.463rd
  • Three-and-out rate10%90th
  • Three-and-outs forced43%92nd

CORE

  • CORE offense10.596th
  • CORE defense-3.568th
  • CORE overall14.093rd

Roster

  • Returning usage39%45th
  • Returning EPA14661st
  • Team talent composite78785th
  • Recruiting class rank88.036th
  • Recruiting class points18236th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

Offensive DNA

Balanced attack — top 6 nationally by EPA/play
EPA/play
+0.557#8 · elite
Pass EPA/play
+0.570#28
Rush EPA/play
+0.593#4
Explosiveness
1.526#11
Pts/opportunity
6.00#7
Success rate
54.4%

Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.022 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.077#60 · average
Havoc rate (total)
21.2%#27
Front-7 havoc
11.0%
DB havoc
10.2%
Big play rate allowed
1.195#57
Success rate allowed
34.1%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

52.5 PPG offense, 14.0 allowed — +38.5 margin/game
Points per game
52.5
Points allowed/game
14.0
Scoring margin/game
+38.5
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
46%
Talent rank (247)
#22

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE95thEXPLOSIVENESS93thFINISHING96thFIELD POS39thDEFENSE57thHAVOC81th50th100th
Offense
95th
Explosiveness
93th
Finishing
96th
Field Pos
39th
Defense
57th
Havoc
81th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+18.4
#16
Offense
+12.3
#11
Defense
-6.2
#42
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 20 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive4.901.62
Starting field positionown 32.2own 26.8
Available yards75.8%29.9%
Scoring opportunities85.0%66.7%
Points per opportunity5.762.43
Three-and-out rate10.0%42.9%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
47.7%
Expected, given the spots
45.8%
Over expected
+1.9
Fourth down vs peers
+12
Fourth down vs the model
-20
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Nebraska is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Nebraska in 2026

by EPA/play distance
SMUSP+ +11.1
Off EPA/play +0.557Def EPA/play +0.037Elo 1734
Match
98%
UtahSP+ +13.0
Off EPA/play +0.557Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1874
Match
98%
BYUSP+ +16.8
Off EPA/play +0.520Def EPA/play +0.039Elo 1683
Match
97%
NorthwesternSP+ +7.8
Off EPA/play +0.480Def EPA/play +0.128Elo 1549
Match
94%
IndianaSP+ +24.1
Off EPA/play +0.655Def EPA/play +0.010Elo 2132
Match
93%
CincinnatiSP+ +5.9
Off EPA/play +0.449Def EPA/play +0.123Elo 1516
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 20152026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +5.8, #51 of 1282016: +3.3, #53 of 1282017: -8.7, #92 of 1302018: +4.2, #47 of 1302019: +0.2, #60 of 1302020: +1.9, #60 of 1242021: +13.2, #26 of 1302022: -4.0, #78 of 1312023: +5.0, #45 of 1332024: +7.7, #39 of 1342025: -1.8, #68 of 1362026: +18.4, #16 of 138
20152026
Now +18.4 · #16 of 138Best +18.4 in 2026Worst -8.7 in 2017

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
2.0+0.0
20257-64-5
54%
5.7+1.3
20247-63-6
54%
8.1-1.1
20235-73-6
42%
8.1-3.1
20224-83-6
33%
5.0-1.0
20213-91-8
25%
7.6-4.6
20203-53-5
38%
3.5-0.5
20195-73-6
42%
6.2-1.2
20184-83-6
33%
6.8-2.8
20174-83-6
33%
3.4+0.6

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

10%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

2-0 so far, projected to finish 7.7-4.4. Top-four bye in 1.7%. Wins the Big Ten in 2.2%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
100%
1 loss
67%
2 losses
1.3%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

up 4.5 points since preseasonwon 49-21 over Ohio against an expected margin of +24, so +4.5 against the number.

  • At 3 losses they are 1.3% where the average Big Ten team is 12%.
  • The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.

Nebraska’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk12vs Ohio State26.1
  • wk6vs Indiana21.7
  • wk7at Oregon20.3
  • wk13at Iowa15.7
  • wk10at Illinois13.3
  • wk9vs Washington12.8

Who to root for

Games Nebraska is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk12Washington over Indiana1.6
  • wk11Northwestern over Ohio State1.4
  • wk11Central Michigan over Sacramento State1.3
  • wk11Kentucky over Florida1.1
  • wk3Ball State over Liberty1.1
  • wk9Rutgers over Michigan1.1
The full playoff picture →

Big Ten

0-0 in league play, projected 4.7-4.37 of 18 by title odds
2.2%
Wins the Big Ten
6.4%
Reaches the title game

The Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk12Ohio State at Nebraska8.0
  • wk6Indiana at Nebraska6.1
  • wk7Nebraska at Oregon5.1
  • wk13Nebraska at Iowa3.8

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →

If not the playoff, then

90%
Bowl eligible
77%
Placed in a bowl
10%
In the playoff
13%
Season over in November

Nebraska is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Las Vegas Bowl10%
  • Pinstripe Bowl9.3%
  • Rate Bowl9.2%
  • Music City Bowl8.6%
  • GameAbove Sports Bowl8.5%
  • ReliaQuest Bowl7.7%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 12 have sent Nebraska a player since 2010 — 34 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Nebraska's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
GraysonGA50
WashingtonOH42
Bishop GormanNV40
Edna KarrLA40
Blue SpringsMO32
CalabasasCA30
Valor ChristianCO21
Arlington MartinTX20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.