Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
Texas Tech projects to nearly ten regular-season wins and Texas to eight and a half. Those are means, and the two win distributions overlap heavily, so on any given draw either can finish ahead. Across all 50,000 season…
Hawai'i is a 9.8-point favorite at home a week after scoring six points there. New Mexico State brings the largest single edge on the field: its chunk-play cap…
Every thread about this game opens with 56-3, and that result is real: Tulsa hung it on Sam Houston in 2009, in Tulsa. That scoreline describes two rosters nei…
The betting number and the projection sit on opposite sides of this game. Florida International is laid at 10.2 points; the projection has Buffalo winning 32-2…
Illinois scored 45 on Duke in Durham last September and won by 26. That afternoon flatters what is coming. Duke arrives in Champaign with the stingiest pass de…
The widest gap on this field is Nebraska's pass defense against Bowling Green's throw game, and it lands on the phase the Falcons can least afford to lose. Hun…
The last time these two met in Pittsburgh, one point separated them: 35-34. This version arrives with UCF owning the single largest gap on the matchup sheet, i…
These teams met a year ago and Oklahoma State lost by 66. That result hangs over everything, and the six-day-old evidence on both sides says its shape survived…
Navy sits 23rd in adjusted efficiency through last season and Florida Atlantic 87th, about 10 points per 100 plays apart. The widest gap on this field is Navy'…
USC is favored by 30.8 and projects to win 44-17, and the reason is narrower than the number suggests. Louisiana's short-yardage and power offense against USC'…
North Dakota State arrives 2-0, having allowed 3.5 points a game, and the market has made it a 3.5-point favorite on the road. The projection reads the other w…
Auburn is laying 29.8 and projects to win 32-28. The largest edge in the matchup belongs to the visitors: Southern Miss's passing game against Auburn's coverag…
LSU beat this same team 23-7 in Baton Rouge a year ago, and the board now asks for more than double that margin. Tech's front is why that's a stretch: it grade…
Fresno State is favored by 18.2 at home and grades five points the better team — two facts that do not fit together. Sacramento State's defense against Fresno…
Kennesaw State projects to 33-24, and the projection gives it a 73% chance of winning, almost all of that built on a 10-4 season rather than on anything either…
Arkansas arrives with the better defensive resume of the two teams: 5th of 185 by what it allows through the air, 26th of 185 against the run, 14 points surren…
Iowa State won this game 16-13 in Ames last September, so a two-touchdown number at Kinnick is not a verdict on which program is better. It is a verdict on one…
The last time Georgia Southern played at Clemson, in 2018, it left down 38-7, and the 42-21 projection says that verdict still holds. But Clemson scored 10 poi…
These two met in Columbus a year ago and produced a 14-7 game, and that scoreline, not last week's pair of blowouts, is the honest preview of the rematch. Ohio…
These teams played last season and Texas Tech won by 31. Oregon State finished 2-10 at 18.2 points a game, Texas Tech 12-2 at 39.4, and the opening week gave n…
Tennessee is favored by 13.5 on the road, and the cleanest reason has nothing to do with points scored. Georgia Tech's short-yardage and power running against…
Tulane is a 10.2-point favorite on the strength of an 11-3 season, then played seven days ago like a team that had lost the thread: three points at Duke, a thr…
Marshall was shut out 45-0 at Penn State a week ago and is still a 14.2-point favorite, because the case for the Herd is a 5-7 season that scored 30.8 points a…
UCLA beat San Diego State 35-10 in San Diego two years ago, and that scoreline is the version of these teams most people still carry into Saturday. Everything…
The widest edge on this field belongs to the team getting 20.8. Delaware's defense against Vanderbilt's short-yardage and power run game grades nearly two stan…
