Schedule & Results
FIUFlorida InternationalW19-9✓Wk 2@
ARMYArmyW28-24✗Wk 3vsDESTDelaware StateWk 4@
BGSUBowling Green-18.988%Wk 5vs
TEMTemple-10.975%Wk 6@
UTSAUTSA+0.748%Wk 7vs
KENTKent State-19.990%Wk 9vs
UABUAB-10.474%Wk 10@
ECUEast Carolina-4.160%Wk 11vs
MEMMemphis-5.463%Wk 12@
FAUFlorida Atlantic-2.055%Wk 13vs
TULNTulane-10.073%Team Leaders
Michael Van Buren Jr.Passing339 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Jason Collins Jr.Rushing99 yds · 0 TD · 3.8 avg
Arhmad BranchReceiving10 rec · 100 yds · 0 TD
Ayden JacksonTackles16 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on South Florida
All news →Army's defense is built to erase South Florida's chunk plays
South Florida takes down Florida International, 19-9
USF's 13-point edge is inherited, not built this year
Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Michael Van Buren Jr. | QB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Bowie, MD |
| 10 | KJ Cooper | QB | SR | 6'5" | 225 | El Paso, TX |
| 16 | Jayden Bradford | QB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Columbia, SC |
| 17 | Luke Kromenhoek | QB | SO | 6'4" | 220 | Savannah, GA |
| 2 | Jason Collins Jr. | RB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Washington, DC |
| 5 | D.J. Crowther | RB | SR | 5'11" | 215 | Sacramento, CA |
| 15 | Alvon Isaac | RB | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Hawthorne, FL |
| 22 | Chase Garnett | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 24 | Tray Kinkle | RB | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Holly Springs, MS |
| 25 | Jayson Franklin | RB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 30 | Jeremiah Johnson | RB | SO | 5'11" | 214 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 32 | Connor Mathews | RB | FR | 5'8" | 205 | Niceville, FL |
| 0 | Cameron Seldon | WR | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Browns Store, VA |
| 1 | Bryson Rodgers | WR | JR | 6'2" | 192 | Tampa, FL |
| 4 | Arhmad Branch | WR | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Festus, MO |
| 6 | Mudia Reuben | WR | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Kansas City, MO |
| 7 | Jaron Glover | WR | SR | 6'1" | 208 | Sarasota, FL |
| 9 | Armani Winfield | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Lewisville, TX |
| 12 | Jaden Alexis | WR | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 14 | Arkese Parks | WR | SO | 6'2" | 175 | Tampa, FL |
| 18 | Kenny Odom | WR | SR | 5'10" | 178 | Savannah, GA |
| 19 | JeyQuan Smith | WR | JR | 5'10" | 190 | San Bernardino, CA |
| 27 | Jayden Davis | WR | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Baltimore, MD |
| 80 | Joshua Porter | WR | JR | 6'0" | 193 | Sebring, FL |
| 82 | Gabe Legrand | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Lake Wales, FL |
| 84 | Dmari Roberts | WR | FR | 6'3" | 169 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 8 | Wyatt Sullivan | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Atlanta, GA |
| 47 | Evan Dangler | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Bradenton, FL |
| 81 | Tayte Crable | TE | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Massillon, OH |
| 85 | Kade Caton | TE | SO | 6'5" | 250 | Manvel, TX |
| 87 | Luke Clyburn | TE | SR | 6'7" | 255 | Camden, SC |
| 88 | Brandon Kubay | TE | FR | 6'3" | 242 | Winnipeg, MB |
| 89 | Ryley Zalusky | TE | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Dallas, TX |
| 54 | Braden Carter | OL | SO | 6'6" | 295 | Cumming, GA |
| 55 | James Jenkins | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Tampa, FL |
| 58 | TJ Lawrence | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Orange Park, FL |
| 59 | Devin Davis | OL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Atlanta, GA |
| 60 | Khalil Collins | OL | FR | 6'1" | 305 | Moultrie, GA |
| 61 | Julius Tate | OL | SO | 6'3" | 305 | Greenville, SC |
| 65 | Jaylin Acevedo | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Orlando, FL |
| 66 | Teriyan Morman | OL | SO | 6'5" | 355 | Ocala, FL |
| 67 | Thomas Shrader | OL | SR | 6'5" | 312 | Venice, FL |
| 70 | Gerrick Gordon Jr. | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Reddick, FL |
| 71 | Kahari Finley | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Clinton, MD |
| 72 | Cash Hudson | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Tulsa, OK |
| 73 | Caleb Harris | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Miami, FL |
| 74 | Jordan Harrison | OL | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Clinton, MD |
| 76 | Colin Bellomy | OL | FR | 6'7" | 284 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 77 | Michael Wooten | OL | SR | 6'5" | 325 | Duquesne, PA |
| 78 | Caleb Cook | OL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Brunswick, GA |
| 79 | Ethan Green | OL | SR | 6'7" | 322 | Fremont, OH |
| 1 | C.J. Hicks | DE | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Dayton, OH |
| 4 | Michael Williams II | DE | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Farmington Hills, MI |
| 14 | Eli Jones | DE | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Venice, FL |
| 18 | Levi Smiley | DE | SO | 6'4" | 260 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 19 | Peter Ramil | DE | FR | 6'5" | 250 | Binghamton, NY |
| 49 | Harrysson Ngassa | DE | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Chicago, IL |
| 90 | Terrell Jones | DE | SR | 6'5" | 270 | Hoover, AL |
| 56 | Terry Simmons Jr. | DL | JR | 6'2" | 325 | Savannah, GA |
| 95 | Iverson Garcia-Ponce | DL | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Knoxville, TN |
| 99 | Jahari Grant | DL | JR | 6'2" | 310 | Port Saint Lucie, FL |
| 11 | Asani Redwood | DT | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Suwanee, GA |
| 28 | Ryan Jenkins | DT | JR | 6'4" | 275 | Albany, GA |
| 77 | Major Dillard | DT | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 93 | Richard Scott III | DT | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 96 | Sager Quinn | DT | FR | 6'1" | 290 | Cohutta, GA |
| 98 | Marcus Williams | DT | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Valdosta, GA |
| 0 | Grayson Howard | LB | JR | 6'4" | 240 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 6 | Rodney Hill | LB | JR | 5'10" | 225 | Bunnell, FL |
| 7 | Sam Robinson | LB | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 10 | Shamar Meikle | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Miramar, FL |
| 25 | Zavier Hamilton | LB | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Gulf Breeze, FL |
| 30 | Lorenzo Barnes | LB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Marianna, FL |
| 32 | Demetrius Geathers Jr. | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Deerfield Beach, FL |
| 33 | Ashton Mosley | LB | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Blountstown, FL |
| 36 | DeAngelo Bowden | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Washington, DC |
| 44 | Dennis King III | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Daytona Beach, FL |
| 45 | MarShon Oxley | LB | SR | 6'1" | 227 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 52 | Christian Smith | LB | FR | 6'3" | 232 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 53 | Gavin Leach | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Newburgh, IN |
| 54 | Michael Harris | LB | JR | 6'0" | 223 | Apopka, FL |
| 55 | Greg Otten | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 94 | Brooks Williams Jr. | LB | FR | 6'6" | 225 | Port Saint Lucie, FL |
| 3 | Za'Quan Bryan | CB | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Savannah, GA |
| 8 | Amarion Fortenberry | CB | JR | 5'10" | 188 | Columbia, MS |
| 16 | Teddy Foster | CB | JR | 6'0" | 188 | Sarasota, FL |
| 17 | Masiyah Limehouse | CB | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Plant City, FL |
| 22 | Ja'Kyri Watson | CB | FR | 5'10" | 165 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 29 | Deylen Platt | CB | SO | 6'3" | 185 | Venice, FL |
| 31 | Jair Murphy | CB | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Ocoee, FL |
| 34 | Keyshaun Birks | CB | FR | 6'1" | 180 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 35 | Herlin Perry Jr. | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | East Providence, RI |
| 39 | Daron Jean | CB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Bradenton, FL |
| 5 | Ayden Jackson | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 12 | Jabari Smith | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Orlando, FL |
| 15 | Tayvion Beasley | DB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Inglewood, CA |
| 41 | George Brown IV | DB | SO | 5'10" | 183 | Orlando, FL |
| 2 | Tavin Ward | S | SR | 6'1" | 197 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 9 | Israel Boyce | S | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Douglasville, GA |
| 13 | Malcolm Ziglar | S | JR | 6'3" | 205 | Fuquay-Varina, NC |
| 20 | A'mon Lane-Ganus | S | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Columbiana, AL |
| 21 | Victor Zidor | S | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Cocoa, FL |
| 23 | Cedrick Hawkins Jr. | S | JR | 6'0" | 192 | Titusville, FL |
| 24 | Amari Jones | S | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Dunnellon, FL |
| 26 | CJ Cresser Jr. | S | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Brooksville, FL |
| 27 | Jermichael Gillis | S | FR | 6'1" | 178 | Lakeland, FL |
| 38 | Derrick Nichols III | S | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Miami, FL |
| 7 | Nico Gramatica | PK | JR | 5'8" | 165 | Tampa, FL |
| 10 | Gaston Gramatica | PK | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Tampa, FL |
| 37 | Lawson Thorn | PK | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Charleston, SC |
| 39 | Luke Goater | P | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 48 | Turner McLaughlin | LS | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Pensacola, FL |
| 49 | Easton Bonnett | LS | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Orlando, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#118projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.63#116
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.10 / 0.45
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 22.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.6%#112
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 10.0% / 3.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.16#48 | -0.13#123 | 0.43#88 |
| Defense | 0.05#97 | 0.16#76 | 0.17#35 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1431st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1527th
- Offense success rate47%63rd
- Defense success rate allowed45%15th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%80th
- Offense success — passing downs33%56th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs52%9th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs26%56th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.984th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9597th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.743rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.837th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.722nd
- Defense line yards allowed2.935th
- Offense highlight yards0.5420th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.4969th
- Offense power success0.9085th
- Defense power success allowed0.7543rd
- Offense stuff rate0.2222nd
- Defense stuff rate0.2043rd
Third down
- Third down conversion46%58th
- Third down distance faced7.039th
- Third down conversion allowed36%55th
- Third down distance forced6.520th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0032nd
- Net success rate — second half0.0446th
Drives
- Points per drive2.868th
- Points per drive allowed2.058th
- Average starting field position3279th
- Opponent starting field position2482nd
- Available yards gained53%62nd
- Available yards allowed46%60th
- Scoring opportunities per drive94%85th
- Scoring opportunities allowed65%88th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.958th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.142nd
- Three-and-out rate18%74th
- Three-and-outs forced24%51st
CORE
- CORE offense1.463rd
- CORE defense-0.0951st
- CORE overall1.457th
Roster
- Returning usage16%16th
- Returning EPA55.031st
- Team talent composite70463rd
- Recruiting class rank90.035th
- Recruiting class points18035th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.244 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 17 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 43.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 48.9%
- Over expected
- -5.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. South Florida is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to South Florida in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 100% | 1.4 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 3.4 | -2.4 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 3.3 | -1.3 |
| 2020 | 1-8 | 0-7 | 11% | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 10-2 | 6-2 | 83% | 10.1 | -0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 9.3-3.1. Wins the American Athletic in 15%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 92%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 3.8 points since preseason — won 19-9 over Florida International against an expected margin of +15, so −5.2 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 39% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.27 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 8.3% of seasons, having won their league in 87% of those.
- The 2026 format is worth +0.8 points to them against the 2025 one.
South Florida’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at UTSA14.3
- wk11vs Memphis13.0
- wk10at East Carolina11.8
- wk12at Florida Atlantic11.6
- wk13vs Tulane10.7
- wk5vs Temple10.1
Who to root for
Games South Florida is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico2.9
- wk11Oregon State over Boise State2.4
- wk8Washington State over Boise State2.0
- wk7Hawai'i over New Mexico1.8
- wk4New Mexico State over New Mexico1.8
- wk12Wyoming over New Mexico1.8
American Athletic
1-0 in league play, projected 5.3-2.72 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 40% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6South Florida at UTSA20.0
- wk11Memphis at South Florida19.6
- wk10South Florida at East Carolina16.9
- wk12South Florida at Florida Atlantic16.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
South Florida is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 6.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Gasparilla Bowl30%
- Military Bowl14%
- Fenway Bowl8.5%
- First Responder Bowl6.7%
- Birmingham Bowl6.5%
- Armed Forces Bowl6.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent South Florida a player since 2010 — 26 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of South Florida's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.