vs Syracuse · Wk 3Win prob 76%Model -11.1Schedule & Results
M-OHMiami (OH)W59-14✓Wk 2vs
UCFUCFW12-7✓Wk 3vsSYRSyracuse-11.176%Wk 4vsBUCKBucknellWk 5@
VTVirginia Tech+0.150%Wk 6vs
UNCNorth Carolina-17.187%Wk 7@
BCBoston College-9.472%Wk 8@
MIAMiami+18.212%Wk 9vs
GTGeorgia Tech-8.571%Wk 11vs
FSUFlorida State-2.757%Wk 12@
LOULouisville+5.736%Wk 13@
CALCalifornia+3.043%ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Mason HeintschelPassing665 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
Damon Ferguson Jr.Rushing81 yds · 1 TD · 3.1 avg
Cataurus HicksReceiving8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
Cruce BrookinsTackles9 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mason Heintschel | QB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Oregon, OH |
| 8 | Angelo Renda | QB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Southlake, TX |
| 11 | Holden Geriner | QB | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Savannah, GA |
| 12 | Beau Jackson | QB | FR | 6'3" | 220 | West Bloomfield, MI |
| 16 | Corey Dailey | QB | FR | 6'6" | 200 | Seguin, TX |
| 19 | Davin Friedman | QB | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Erie, PA |
| 5 | Justin Cook | RB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 20 | Synkwan Smith | RB | FR | 5'7" | 185 | Roswell, GA |
| 25 | Ja'Kyrian Turner | RB | SO | 5'9" | 195 | Wildwood, FL |
| 26 | Damon Ferguson Jr. | RB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Gwynn Oak, MD |
| 27 | Jaylin Brown | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Orlando, FL |
| 29 | La'Vell Wright | RB | SR | 5'11" | 215 | Louisville, KY |
| 34 | Ethan Shine | RB | JR | 5'10" | 225 | Doylestown, PA |
| 2 | Tony Kinsler | WR | SO | 5'11" | 175 | Daytona Beach, FL |
| 3 | Cataurus Hicks | WR | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 4 | Bryce Yates | WR | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Ettrick, VA |
| 10 | Censere Lee | WR | SR | 5'11" | 170 | Clearwater, FL |
| 14 | Benny Haselrig | WR | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Allison Park, PA |
| 18 | Malik Knight | WR | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 22 | Bryan Hamilton | WR | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Tampa, FL |
| 24 | Tyreek Robinson | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Shreveport, LA |
| 30 | Jack Lesniewicz | WR | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 40 | Amah Agwu | WR | SO | 6'3" | 190 | Lynbrook, NY |
| 41 | Jake Sassic | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 81 | Rodney Dunbar | WR | FR | 6'5" | 185 | Thomasville, GA |
| 83 | Dylan Wester | WR | FR | 5'9" | 175 | Palmetto, FL |
| 84 | Cam Sapp | WR | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Miami, FL |
| 87 | Demetrice McCray | WR | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Clermont, FL |
| 32 | Truitt Brown | TE | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Tampa, FL |
| 44 | Adam Howanitz | TE | JR | 6'4" | 240 | Archbald, PA |
| 82 | Elijah Lagg | TE | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Mountain Home, AR |
| 85 | Carson Kent | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Milton, GA |
| 86 | Max Hunt | TE | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Tampa, FL |
| 88 | Wyatt Villarreal | TE | FR | 6'5" | 230 | Celina, TX |
| 50 | Shep Turk | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Jefferson Hills, PA |
| 51 | Jiavani Cooley | OL | SO | 6'4" | 315 | Erie, PA |
| 53 | Kendall Stanley | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Albany, GA |
| 55 | BJ Williams | OL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 56 | Keylen Davis | OL | SR | 6'2" | 325 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 58 | Mason Lindsay | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 60 | Akram Elnagmi | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Bristol |
| 61 | Sean Franklin | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Mars, PA |
| 62 | Jordan Fields | OL | FR | 6'4" | 265 | Houston, TX |
| 63 | Ty Banco | OL | JR | 6'0" | 320 | Washington, PA |
| 64 | Josh Nindl | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 66 | Keith Gouveia | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Stephens City, VA |
| 68 | Torian Chester | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Albany, GA |
| 70 | Ryan Baer | OL | SR | 6'7" | 325 | Eastlake, OH |
| 71 | Ryan Carretta | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Galena, OH |
| 72 | Isaiah Montgomery | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 74 | Netinho Olivieri | OL | SR | 6'4" | 310 | Newton, MA |
| 76 | Mike van der Oord | OL | FR | 6'7" | 285 | Westlake, OH |
| 77 | John Curran | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 78 | Nick Howard | OL | FR | 6'5" | 350 | Pearland, TX |
| 2 | Isaiah Neal | DL | JR | 6'2" | 250 | Washington, DC |
| 5 | Zach Crothers | DL | SO | 6'4" | 265 | Weston, FL |
| 11 | Nick James | DL | SR | 6'2" | 295 | Bradenton, FL |
| 20 | Josh Pittman | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Suffolk, VA |
| 35 | JuJu Anderson | DL | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Orlando, FL |
| 40 | Ty Millhimes | DL | JR | 6'2" | 240 | Hummelstown, PA |
| 44 | Jimmy Scott | DL | SR | 6'3" | 265 | Cheektowaga, NY |
| 45 | Jeremiah Warren | DL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Belleville, MI |
| 49 | Charlie Donehue | DL | FR | 6'1" | 275 | Powell, OH |
| 50 | Denim Cook | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Columbus, OH |
| 55 | Sean FitzSimmons | DL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Monaca, PA |
| 56 | Jaeden Moore | DL | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Hanford, CA |
| 58 | Reston Lehman | DL | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Mcmurray, PA |
| 66 | Ben Kauffman | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Media, PA |
| 76 | Lincoln Hoke | DL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Sewickley, PA |
| 77 | Dylan Pitzer | DL | FR | 6'7" | 285 | Derry, PA |
| 90 | Trevor Sommers | DL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Davie, FL |
| 93 | Ty Yuhas | DL | SO | 6'3" | 285 | Munhall, PA |
| 95 | Eliyt Nairne | DL | JR | 6'1" | 290 | Charlotte, NC |
| 0 | Braylan Lovelace | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Leechburg, PA |
| 10 | Alex Sanford Jr. | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Oxford, MS |
| 19 | Jayden Bonsu | LB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Hillside, NJ |
| 24 | Cameron Lindsey | LB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Aliquippa, PA |
| 30 | John Wetzel | LB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Latrobe, PA |
| 31 | DeMarco Ward | LB | JR | 6'1" | 230 | Duluth, GA |
| 32 | Jeremiah Marcelin | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 34 | Marcus Jennings | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Southfield, MI |
| 37 | Davin Brewton | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Neptune, NJ |
| 38 | Emmanuel Taylor | LB | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 46 | Zach Zollers | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Royersford, PA |
| 48 | Desmond Johnson | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Miami, FL |
| 52 | Abe Ibrahim | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Bridgeville, PA |
| 54 | Justin Thompson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Bowie, MD |
| 3 | Shawn Lee Jr. | DB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 4 | Rashan Murray | DB | SR | 6'2" | 185 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 6 | Raion Strader | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 12 | Cruce Brookins | DB | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 14 | Josh Guerrier | DB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Ocoee, FL |
| 15 | Tony Forney | DB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Decatur, GA |
| 17 | Cole Woodson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Haymarket, VA |
| 21 | Shadarian Harrison | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Lakeland, FL |
| 22 | Zion Ferguson | DB | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Atlanta, GA |
| 23 | Kanye Thompson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Mckeesport, PA |
| 25 | Kentrail McRae Jr. | DB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Clearwater, FL |
| 26 | Allen Bryant | DB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Pahokee, FL |
| 27 | Nigel Maynard | DB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 29 | Da'Ron Barksdale | DB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 39 | D'Angelo Stocker | DB | SR | 5'10" | 170 | Coatesville, PA |
| 41 | Isaac Patterson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Westerville, OH |
| 43 | Valdez Stuvaints | DB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Mckeesport, PA |
| 47 | Jaxson Mark | DB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Westerville, OH |
| 91 | Sam Hunsaker | PK | JR | 5'9" | 175 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 93 | Antonio Chadha | PK | SR | 5'9" | 200 | Bryn Mawr, PA |
| 94 | Carter Genchi | PK | FR | 5'10" | 160 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 92 | Kaemon Tijerina | P | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Redford, MI |
| 98 | Gabe Russo | P | JR | 6'0" | 235 | Montgomery, AL |
| 57 | Alex Rudolph | LS | FR | 5'9" | 200 | Edwardsburg, MI |
| 59 | Justin Schmidt | LS | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Pittsburgh, PA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Pittsburgh is in year 12 under Pat Narduzzi, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at holding the line of scrimmage. The way in is 121st at staying out of the backfield, and they are 120th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Pittsburgh has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#7projected
- Defensefirst and second down#11projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#121projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#120projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.67#111
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.73 / 0.78
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 21.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 18.6%#44
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.5% / 7.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.06#79 | 0.08#97 | 0.56#66 |
| Defense | -0.06#63 | -0.32#8 | 0.41#78 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4378th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1142nd
- Offense success rate55%77th
- Defense success rate allowed32%66th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%61st
- Offense success — passing downs57%93rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs36%70th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%51st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.373rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.512th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.157th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.058th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.255th
- Defense line yards allowed2.273rd
- Offense highlight yards1.670th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0583rd
- Offense power success0.6029th
- Defense power success allowed1.023rd
- Offense stuff rate0.2031st
- Defense stuff rate0.1634th
Third down
- Third down conversion64%90th
- Third down distance faced6.750th
- Third down conversion allowed31%66th
- Third down distance forced9.894th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1252nd
- Net success rate — second half0.3088th
Drives
- Points per drive4.995th
- Points per drive allowed1.374th
- Average starting field position2956th
- Opponent starting field position2663rd
- Available yards gained79%93rd
- Available yards allowed30%87th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed73%68th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.991st
- Points allowed per opportunity1.873rd
- Three-and-out rate17%75th
- Three-and-outs forced45%88th
Roster
- Returning usage51%61st
- Returning EPA15063rd
- Team talent composite67554th
- Recruiting class rank44.069th
- Recruiting class points21469th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.555 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 64.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.6%
- Over expected
- +13.4
- Fourth down vs peers
- -12
- Fourth down vs the model
- -100
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Pittsburgh is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Pittsburgh in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.6 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 6-5 | 5-5 | 55% | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.3 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 7-7 | 6-3 | 50% | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 6.0 | -1.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 8.5-3.7. Top-four bye in 3.2%. Wins the ACC in 7.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 8.8 points since preseason — won 59-14 over Miami (OH) against an expected margin of +13, so +32.4 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 33% where the average ACC team is 44%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Pittsburgh’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk8at Miami36.1
- wk12at Louisville22.5
- wk5at Virginia Tech20.1
- wk6vs North Carolina17.4
- wk11vs Florida State17.4
- wk9vs Georgia Tech16.4
Who to root for
Games Pittsburgh is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Florida State over Miami2.7
- wk11Duke over Miami2.4
- wk9North Carolina over Miami2.3
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami1.9
- wk9Navy over Notre Dame1.8
- wk5Clemson over Miami1.6
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 5.7-3.34 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Pittsburgh at Miami22.8
- wk12Pittsburgh at Louisville11.1
- wk5Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech9.2
- wk6North Carolina at Pittsburgh7.7
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Pittsburgh is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Gator Bowl15%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl12%
- Holiday Bowl11%
- Sun Bowl9.3%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl8.0%
- Pinstripe Bowl6.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Pittsburgh a player since 2010 — 32 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Pittsburgh's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.