vs Kent State · Wk 3Win prob 100%Model -37.9Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Julian SayinPassing320 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Bo JacksonRushing83 yds · 1 TD · 9.2 avg
Jeremiah SmithReceiving8 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD
Riley PettijohnTackles6 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 119 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tavien St. Clair | QB | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Bellefontaine, OH |
| 10 | Julian Sayin | QB | JR | 6'1" | 214 | Carlsbad, CA |
| 13 | Luke Fahey | QB | FR | 5'11" | 206 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 16 | Justyn Martin | QB | SR | 6'4" | 228 | Inglewood, CA |
| 18 | Kolton Stover | QB | SO | 6'4" | 213 | Centerburg, OH |
| 19 | Brady Geibel | QB | SO | 6'5" | 222 | Sugarcreek, OH |
| 2 | Legend Bey | RB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Forney, TX |
| 21 | Anthony Rogers | RB | SO | 5'8" | 203 | Montgomery, AL |
| 24 | Ja'Kobi Jackson | RB | SR | 6'0" | 219 | Pensacola, FL |
| 25 | Bo Jackson | RB | SO | 6'0" | 218 | Cleveland, OH |
| 28 | Stanley Jackson Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 210 | Westerville, OH |
| 29 | Favour Akih | RB | FR | 5'11" | 197 | Delaware, OH |
| 32 | Isaiah West | RB | SO | 5'10" | 222 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 0 | Brandon Inniss | WR | SR | 6'0" | 197 | Hollywood, FL |
| 3 | Devin McCuin | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Jacksonville, TX |
| 4 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | JR | 6'4" | 222 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 5 | Kyle Parker | WR | SR | 5'10" | 198 | Allen, TX |
| 6 | Jerquaden Guilford | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 7 | Phillip Bell | WR | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 8 | De'Zie Jones | WR | SO | 5'10" | 191 | Wayne, NJ |
| 11 | Brock Boyd | WR | FR | 6'1" | 196 | Southlake, TX |
| 15 | Chris Henry Jr. | WR | FR | 6'5" | 211 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 23 | Nolan Baudo | WR | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Chicago, IL |
| 30 | Amari Valerio-Hudson | WR | FR | 5'9" | 175 | Dublin, OH |
| 33 | Ryan Seimetz | WR | FR | 5'11" | 196 | Jackson, OH |
| 34 | Brennen Schramm | WR | SR | 6'0" | 194 | Medina, OH |
| 80 | Jaeden Ricketts | WR | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Pataskala, OH |
| 82 | David Adolph | WR | SR | 6'5" | 210 | Dublin, OH |
| 38 | Frankie McAllister | TE | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Columbus, OH |
| 83 | Nate Roberts | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Washington, OK |
| 84 | Hunter Welcing | TE | SR | 6'3" | 248 | Deer Park, IL |
| 85 | Bennett Christian | TE | SR | 6'6" | 255 | Acworth, GA |
| 86 | Mason Williams | TE | SR | 6'4" | 246 | Mogadore, OH |
| 87 | Brody Lennon | TE | SO | 6'4" | 243 | Cleveland, OH |
| 88 | Maxence LeBlanc | TE | JR | 6'4" | 246 | St. Bruno, PQ |
| 89 | Nick Lautar | TE | FR | 6'6" | 242 | Lebanon, OH |
| 51 | Luke Montgomery | OL | SR | 6'5" | 313 | Findlay, OH |
| 57 | Ian Gecse | OL | SR | 6'4" | 296 | Grandview Heights, OH |
| 58 | Gabe VanSickle | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Coopersville, MI |
| 60 | Jaxon Powell | OL | FR | 6'4" | 307 | Portsmouth, OH |
| 62 | Joshua Padilla | OL | SR | 6'3" | 301 | Huber Heights, OH |
| 63 | Julian Goines-Jackson | OL | SR | 6'1" | 303 | Zanesville, OH |
| 64 | Simon Lorentz | OL | JR | 6'1" | 290 | Dover, OH |
| 65 | Tucker Smith | OL | FR | 6'5" | 299 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 66 | Landry Brede | OL | FR | 6'6" | 320 | Mentor, OH |
| 67 | Austin Siereveld | OL | SR | 6'5" | 327 | Liberty Township, OH |
| 68 | Mason Wilhelm | OL | FR | 6'3" | 309 | Lakewood, OH |
| 69 | Ian Moore | OL | JR | 6'6" | 315 | New Palestine, IN |
| 70 | Phillip Daniels | OL | SR | 6'5" | 312 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 72 | Deontae Armstrong | OL | JR | 6'7" | 310 | Elyria, OH |
| 73 | Vasean Washington | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Springfield, OH |
| 74 | Carter Lowe | OL | SO | 6'5" | 318 | Toledo, OH |
| 75 | Carson Hinzman | OL | SR | 6'5" | 301 | Hammond, WI |
| 76 | Jake Cook | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Westerville, OH |
| 77 | Sam Greer | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Akron, OH |
| 78 | Max Riley | OL | FR | 6'4" | 302 | Avon Lake, OH |
| 2 | Kenyatta Jackson Jr. | DE | SR | 6'6" | 263 | Hollywood, FL |
| 4 | Qua Russaw | DE | SR | 6'2" | 244 | Montgomery, AL |
| 9 | Zion Grady | DE | SO | 6'4" | 262 | Enterprise, AL |
| 12 | Beau Atkinson | DE | SR | 6'6" | 260 | Raleigh, NC |
| 34 | Khary Wilder | DE | FR | 6'4" | 257 | Gardena, CA |
| 44 | Epi Sitanilei | DE | SO | 6'4" | 258 | Ontario, CA |
| 56 | Nate Riegle | DE | JR | 6'2" | 227 | Findlay, OH |
| 97 | Dre Quinn | DE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Buford, GA |
| 3 | James Smith | DT | SR | 6'3" | 306 | Montgomery, AL |
| 53 | Will Smith Jr. | DT | SR | 6'3" | 303 | Dublin, OH |
| 55 | John Walker | DT | SR | 6'3" | 302 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 59 | Ashton Yeager | DT | SO | 6'2" | 287 | Findlay, OH |
| 90 | Damari Simeon | DT | FR | 6'2" | 292 | Richland, NJ |
| 91 | Darryus McKinley | DT | FR | 6'3" | 272 | Lafayette, LA |
| 94 | Jason Moore | DT | SR | 6'6" | 316 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 95 | Emanuel Ruffin | DT | FR | 6'3" | 297 | Bessemer, AL |
| 96 | Eddrick Houston | DT | JR | 6'3" | 304 | Buford, GA |
| 98 | Jamir Perez | DT | FR | 6'3" | 349 | Cleveland, OH |
| 5 | Riley Pettijohn | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | McKinney, TX |
| 14 | Christian Alliegro | LB | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Darien, CT |
| 17 | Tarvos Alford | LB | SO | 6'1" | 237 | Port Saint Lucie, FL |
| 20 | Cincere Johnson | LB | FR | 6'3" | 237 | Cleveland, OH |
| 23 | Garrett Stover | LB | JR | 6'1" | 228 | Sunbury, OH |
| 26 | Payton Pierce | LB | JR | 6'1" | 232 | Lucas, TX |
| 33 | Eli Lee | LB | SO | 6'3" | 237 | Akron, OH |
| 36 | CJ Sanna | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 37 | Zach Hayes | LB | JR | 6'2" | 226 | La Grange Park, IL |
| 38 | Eli Riggs | LB | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 41 | Braxton Rembert | LB | FR | 6'5" | 215 | Hoschton, GA |
| 50 | Alec DelSignore | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Youngstown, OH |
| 52 | Ty Howard | LB | SR | 5'11" | 203 | Cleveland, OH |
| 54 | Na'il Diggs Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 209 | Charlotte, NC |
| 6 | Devin Sanchez | CB | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Houston, TX |
| 7 | Jermaine Mathews Jr. | CB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 13 | Miles Lockhart | CB | JR | 5'9" | 196 | Chandler, AZ |
| 15 | Jordan Thomas | CB | FR | 6'1" | 198 | Oradell, NJ |
| 18 | Cam Calhoun | CB | SR | 6'0" | 176 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 19 | Jordyn Woods | CB | SO | 6'4" | 200 | Cartersville, GA |
| 24 | Dominick Kelly | CB | SO | 6'2" | 193 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 25 | Jay Timmons | CB | FR | 5'11" | 191 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 43 | Amar'e Miller | CB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Pickerington, OH |
| 39 | Glorien Gough | DB | JR | 5'10" | 196 | Palos Verdes Estates, CA |
| 48 | Jackson Gula | DB | SO | 6'1" | 193 | Streetsboro, OH |
| 1 | Earl Little Jr. | S | SR | 6'0" | 203 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 8 | Jaylen McClain | S | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Rahway, NJ |
| 10 | Leroy Roker III | S | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 11 | Terry Moore | S | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Washington, NC |
| 16 | Blaine Bradford | S | FR | 6'1" | 212 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 21 | Brenten Jones | S | SR | 6'2" | 216 | Steubenville, OH |
| 28 | Simeon Caldwell | S | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 29 | Deshawn Stewart | S | SO | 6'0" | 199 | Wayne, NJ |
| 30 | Khmari Bing | S | FR | 6'0" | 201 | Baltimore, MD |
| 32 | Kaden Gebhardt | S | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 46 | Ryan Rudzinski | S | SR | 6'4" | 218 | Columbus, OH |
| 49 | Gavin Thobe | S | SO | 6'2" | 196 | Bellbrook, OH |
| 49 | Marcello Diomede | PK | SR | 6'1" | 197 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 92 | Cooper Peterson | PK | FR | 6'0" | 214 | Charlotte, NC |
| 96 | Connor Hawkins | PK | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Liberty Hill, TX |
| 42 | Joe McGuire | P | SR | 6'2" | 209 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 93 | Brady Young | P | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Perrysburg, OH |
| 43 | Brody Jenkins | LS | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Madison, GA |
| 48 | Dalton Riggs | LS | SR | 6'2" | 231 | Eagle, ID |
| 61 | Landon Beal | LS | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Grove City, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Ohio State throws it: Ryan Day's offenses have been pass-leaning across 8 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at throwing it. The way in is 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Ohio State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethrowing it#1projected
- Offensefirst and second down#1projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#1projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.82#100
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.83 / 1.26
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 21.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 18.6%#44
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 12.1% / 6.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.30#17 | 0.17#82 | 0.86#25 |
| Defense | -0.28#16 | 0.14#71 | 0.44#81 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.6797th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2491st
- Offense success rate56%80th
- Defense success rate allowed21%94th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs65%91st
- Offense success — passing downs32%45th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs26%89th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs14%88th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.481st
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.336th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.495th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.947th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.363rd
- Defense line yards allowed1.296th
- Offense highlight yards3.495th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.3271st
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.1840th
- Defense stuff rate0.3289th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced8.115th
- Third down conversion allowed21%83rd
- Third down distance forced9.085th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3786th
- Net success rate — second half0.3490th
Drives
- Points per drive4.793rd
- Points per drive allowed0.2791st
- Average starting field position2422nd
- Opponent starting field position2941st
- Available yards gained71%87th
- Available yards allowed19%96th
- Scoring opportunities per drive92%79th
- Scoring opportunities allowed73%68th
- Points per scoring opportunity5.192nd
- Points allowed per opportunity0.3895th
- Three-and-out rate17%75th
- Three-and-outs forced55%93rd
Roster
- Returning usage71%85th
- Returning EPA35699th
- Team talent composite96497th
- Recruiting class rank4.098th
- Recruiting class points30198th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.593 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 64.3%
- Expected, given the spots
- 51.7%
- Over expected
- +12.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- +17
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Ohio State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Ohio State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 12-2 | 9-0 | 86% | 12.0 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 14-2 | 7-2 | 88% | 15.2 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 10.1 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 7-1 | 6-0 | 88% | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 13-1 | 10-0 | 93% | 13.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 13-1 | 9-1 | 93% | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| 2017 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.5 | +0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 10.3-2.3. Top-four bye in 42%. Wins the Big Ten in 36%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 5.6 points since preseason — won 56-3 over Ball State against an expected margin of +60, so −7.2 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 49% where the average Big Ten team is 11%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Ohio State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs Illinois42.4
- wk11vs Northwestern42.3
- wk6vs Maryland40.9
- wk13vs Michigan40.0
- wk12at Nebraska39.0
- wk5at Iowa37.9
Who to root for
Games Ohio State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas3.0
- wk7Kent State over South Florida2.9
- wk8Illinois over Oregon2.7
- wk6UCLA over Oregon2.6
- wk4Northwestern over Indiana2.6
- wk6Nebraska over Indiana2.4
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 7.4-1.61 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Ohio State at Indiana35.8
- wk10Oregon at Ohio State35.0
- wk5Ohio State at Iowa29.9
- wk4Illinois at Ohio State27.9
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Ohio State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Citrus Bowl8.2%
- ReliaQuest Bowl6.0%
- Music City Bowl4.5%
- Las Vegas Bowl3.7%
- Pinstripe Bowl2.3%
- Rate Bowl1.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 15 have sent Ohio State a player since 2010 — 56 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Ohio State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.