@ Maryland · Wk 3Win prob 35%Model +6.1Schedule & Results
ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Ethan GrunkemeyerPassing551 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
Jeffrey Overton Jr.Rushing151 yds · 2 TD · 6.6 avg
Luke ReynoldsReceiving13 rec · 158 yds · 3 TD
Kaleb SpencerTackles7 tackles · 3.5 TFL · 2 sacks
Latest on Virginia Tech
All news →Old Dominion won here last year against a different defense
Ethan Grunkemeyer produced five of Virginia Tech's nine explosive plays
Roster · 122 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kelden Ryan | QB | FR | 6'1" | 197 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 14 | Troy Huhn | QB | FR | 6'4" | 222 | Carlsbad, CA |
| 17 | Ethan Grunkemeyer | QB | SO | 6'2" | 218 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 22 | Bryce Baker | QB | FR | 6'2" | 212 | Kernersville, NC |
| 16 | Jeffrey Overton Jr. | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 23 | Tyler Mason | RB | SO | 5'10" | 211 | Mount Airy, NC |
| 26 | Messiah Mickens | RB | FR | 5'10" | 212 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 27 | Marcellous Hawkins | RB | SR | 5'10" | 223 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 32 | Bill Davis | RB | JR | 5'9" | 230 | Laplace, LA |
| 35 | John Buetow | RB | SO | 5'8" | 213 | Irmo, SC |
| 46 | Darius Taylor | RB | JR | 5'11" | 243 | Richmond, VA |
| 49 | Gray Peterson | RB | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Appomattox, VA |
| 0 | Ayden Greene | WR | SR | 6'1" | 194 | Knoxville, TN |
| 2 | Takye Heath | WR | JR | 5'9" | 172 | Richmond, VA |
| 3 | Que'Sean Brown | WR | JR | 5'8" | 170 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 5 | Marlion Jackson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 207 | Flowery Branch, GA |
| 6 | Keylen Adams | WR | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 7 | Chanz Wiggins | WR | SO | 6'3" | 202 | King George, VA |
| 15 | Shamarius Peterkin | WR | SO | 6'2" | 183 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 18 | A.J. Brand | WR | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Charlotte, NC |
| 19 | Tyseer Denmark | WR | SO | 5'10" | 183 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 20 | Jeff Exinor Jr. | WR | FR | 6'1" | 218 | Baltimore, MD |
| 28 | Drew Hube | WR | FR | 6'0" | 207 | Gainesville, VA |
| 80 | L.J. Booker | WR | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Richmond, VA |
| 81 | Israel Hairston | WR | SO | 5'8" | 181 | Vinton, VA |
| 83 | Luke Stuewe | WR | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Avon Lake, OH |
| 86 | Joseph Hobbs | WR | FR | 5'11" | 189 | Norfolk, VA |
| — | Davion Brown | WR | FR | 6'1" | 202 | Richmond, VA |
| — | Hudson Zell | WR | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Greensboro, NC |
| 13 | Ja'Ricous Hairston | TE | JR | 6'2" | 251 | Bassett, VA |
| 36 | Brody Jones | TE | JR | 6'3" | 242 | Bristol, VA |
| 44 | Matt Henderson | TE | FR | 6'5" | 243 | Powhatan, VA |
| 82 | Benji Gosnell | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Meadows Of Dan, VA |
| 85 | Luke Reynolds | TE | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Westford, MA |
| 87 | Harrison Saint Germain | TE | SR | 6'4" | 246 | Centreville, VA |
| 99 | Cole Reemsnyder | TE | SR | 6'5" | 238 | South Riding, VA |
| — | Pierce Petersohn | TE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Dodge Center, MN |
| 50 | Nathaniel Wright | OL | FR | 6'4" | 308 | Manassas, VA |
| 51 | Elijah Haughawout | OL | SO | 6'3" | 315 | Suwanee, GA |
| 53 | Tommy Ricard | OL | SO | 6'3" | 307 | Hudson, OH |
| 54 | Michael Troutman III | OL | FR | 6'2" | 316 | Trenton, NJ |
| 56 | Layth Ghannam | OL | JR | 6'4" | 314 | Charleston, WV |
| 57 | Lucas Austin | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Sterling, IL |
| 58 | Roseby Lubintus | OL | FR | 6'5" | 374 | Elizabeth, NJ |
| 61 | Justin Bell | OL | FR | 6'6" | 327 | Macomb Township, MI |
| 62 | Kyle Altuner | OL | SO | 6'3" | 302 | Olney, MD |
| 65 | Tyrell Simpson | OL | FR | 6'7" | 354 | Leland, NC |
| 66 | Montavious Cunningham | OL | SR | 6'3" | 318 | Athens, GA |
| 70 | Logan Howland | OL | JR | 6'6" | 325 | Westfield, NJ |
| 71 | Gavin Crawford | OL | FR | 6'0" | 320 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 72 | Justin Terry | OL | SO | 6'5" | 358 | Pickerington, OH |
| 74 | Marlen Bright | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Wayne, NJ |
| 75 | Benjamin Eziuka | OL | FR | 6'2" | 324 | Canton, MI |
| 76 | Aidan Lynch | OL | SO | 6'6" | 319 | Flanders, NJ |
| 77 | Brody Meadows | OL | SR | 6'7" | 342 | Bluefield, VA |
| 79 | Johnny Garrett | OL | SR | 6'5" | 323 | Scituate, MA |
| — | Thomas Wilder | OL | FR | 6'6" | 313 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| — | Maddox Cochrane | OL | FR | 6'6" | 284 | Midlothian, VA |
| — | Buddy Wegdam | OL | FR | 6'5" | 296 | Marshall, VA |
| 13 | Kemari Copeland | DL | SR | 6'2" | 290 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 31 | Jason Abbey | DL | JR | 6'3" | 256 | Richmond, VA |
| 32 | Deric Dandy | DL | SO | 6'2" | 255 | Mount Airy, NC |
| 34 | Cortez Harris | DL | FR | 6'2" | 247 | Largo, MD |
| 36 | Randy Adirika | DL | FR | 6'2" | 316 | Miami, FL |
| 37 | Mylachi Williams | DL | SO | 6'3" | 253 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 40 | Javion Hilson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Cocoa, FL |
| 42 | Aycen Stevens | DL | JR | 6'5" | 260 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 44 | Brett Clatterbaugh | DL | FR | 6'1" | 250 | Culpeper, VA |
| 45 | Eric Mensah | DL | SO | 6'2" | 322 | Stafford, VA |
| 51 | Samuel Okunlola | DL | SR | 6'3" | 249 | Brockton, MA |
| 52 | Sherrod Henderson | DL | FR | 6'2" | 242 | Rocky Point, NC |
| 54 | Grant Karczewski | DL | JR | 6'7" | 292 | Crozet, VA |
| 55 | Gerard Johnson III | DL | SO | 6'4" | 293 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 56 | Daniel Jennings | DL | FR | 6'1" | 248 | Princeton, WV |
| 58 | Zeke Chinwike | DL | FR | 6'5" | 258 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 63 | Kamren Johnson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 243 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 88 | Christian Evans | DL | FR | 6'2" | 298 | Leesburg, VA |
| 90 | Andrew Hanchuk | DL | SO | 6'5" | 294 | Berea, OH |
| 91 | Garrett Witherington | DL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Birmingham, AL |
| 94 | Elhadj Fall | DL | SR | 6'3" | 301 | Marietta, GA |
| 95 | T-Ron Richardson Jr. | DL | FR | 6'2" | 289 | Petersburg, VA |
| 99 | Emmett Laws | DL | SO | 6'0" | 302 | Elkton, MD |
| — | Tyson Harley | DL | FR | 6'2" | 243 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 3 | Kaleb Spencer | LB | SR | 6'1" | 229 | Gloucester, VA |
| 12 | Gabe Williams | LB | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Bowie, MD |
| 16 | Noah Chambers | LB | SO | 6'1" | 228 | Prince George County, MD |
| 19 | Mathieu Lamah | LB | FR | 6'3" | 231 | Bristow, VA |
| 26 | Antwone Santiago | LB | SR | 6'2" | 233 | Meriden, CT |
| 30 | Curtis Jones Jr. | LB | JR | 6'1" | 234 | Huntington, WV |
| 33 | Keon Wylie | LB | JR | 6'2" | 231 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 38 | John-Patrick Oates | LB | FR | 6'1" | 223 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 39 | Terry Wiggins | LB | FR | 6'3" | 213 | Coatesville, PA |
| 41 | George Ballance | LB | JR | 5'11" | 233 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 2 | Jaquez White | CB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Blackshear, GA |
| 5 | Joshua Clarke | CB | SO | 6'1" | 187 | Alexandria, VA |
| 9 | Isaiah Brown-Murray | CB | SR | 5'9" | 198 | Charlotte, NC |
| 18 | Amauri Polydor | CB | FR | 6'0" | 187 | Baltimore, MD |
| 20 | Cam Chadwick Jr. | CB | JR | 5'11" | 201 | Plainfield, NJ |
| 22 | Kenny Woseley Jr. | CB | SO | 5'11" | 187 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 23 | Thomas Williams | CB | JR | 5'11" | 187 | Greenville, SC |
| 29 | Jahmari DeLoatch | CB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 35 | Jojo Crim | CB | SO | 5'11" | 178 | Camden, SC |
| 43 | Josh Jones | CB | SO | 5'10" | 194 | Aldie, VA |
| 47 | Daniel Garvin | CB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Alexandria, VA |
| — | Zaevion Cleveland | CB | FR | 6'2" | 193 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 1 | DQ Smith | DB | SR | 6'1" | 219 | Columbia, SC |
| 0 | Quentin Reddish | S | SO | 6'2" | 193 | Charlotte, NC |
| 6 | Jordan Bass | S | SR | 6'3" | 212 | Hampton, VA |
| 7 | Sherrod Covil Jr. | S | SR | 5'10" | 202 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 11 | Tyson Flowers | S | SR | 5'11" | 213 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 14 | Sheldon Robinson | S | SO | 6'2" | 211 | Woodberry Forest, VA |
| 15 | Brennan Johnson | S | SO | 5'11" | 198 | Richmond, VA |
| 24 | Tyrell Grant Jr. | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Suffolk, VA |
| 28 | Knahlij Harrell | S | SO | 5'11" | 189 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 17 | John Love | PK | SR | 5'11" | 192 | Spartanburg, SC |
| 92 | Aiden Daugherty | PK | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 98 | Will Love | PK | FR | 6'1" | 197 | Spartanburg, SC |
| 93 | Cole Byrd | P | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Bassett, VA |
| 95 | Nathan Totten | P | JR | 6'1" | 231 | Ashland, KY |
| — | Luke Jones | P | FR | 6'1" | 221 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 49 | Deed Capper | LS | SO | 6'2" | 223 | Mequon, WI |
| 96 | Christian Epling | LS | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Hoschton, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Virginia Tech is in year 1 under James Franklin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 31st at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 122nd at closing out passing downs, and they are 120th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Virginia Tech has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#122projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#120projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#119projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.68#110
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.40 / 1.73
- Power / stuff (off)
- 63.6% / 25.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 39.4%#1
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 36.5% / 2.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.21#35 | 0.34#48 | 0.89#21 |
| Defense | -0.43#2 | -0.05#32 | 0.37#73 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.5487th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.4499th
- Offense success rate65%96th
- Defense success rate allowed9%99th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs70%96th
- Offense success — passing downs14%6th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs4%99th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs13%92nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.128th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.82nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.167th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs0.581st
Trenches
- Offense line yards4.190th
- Defense line yards allowed-0.2599th
- Offense highlight yards1.565th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2872nd
- Offense power success0.9075th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.0299th
- Defense stuff rate0.5999th
Third down
- Third down conversion38%34th
- Third down distance faced6.366th
- Third down conversion allowed13%92nd
- Third down distance forced10.196th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.6499th
- Net success rate — second half0.4998th
Roster
- Returning usage28%30th
- Returning EPA94.346th
- Team talent composite76981st
- Recruiting class rank30.079th
- Recruiting class points22679th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.109 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Virginia Tech is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Virginia Tech in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 27% | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 4-5 | 46% | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | 5-6 | 5-5 | 45% | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 8.9 | +0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.2-4.9. Top-four bye in 1.6%. Wins the ACC in 3.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 1.3 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 99% where the average ACC team is 98%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Virginia Tech’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12at Miami27.2
- wk10at SMU14.8
- wk13vs Virginia13.1
- wk5vs Pittsburgh12.7
- wk8at Clemson12.6
- wk3at Maryland10.8
Who to root for
Games Virginia Tech is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami2.3
- wk7Florida State over Miami1.8
- wk11Duke over Miami1.6
- wk9North Carolina over Miami1.3
- wk8Pittsburgh over Miami1.2
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State1.1
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 4.8-4.26 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Virginia Tech at Miami16.6
- wk10Virginia Tech at SMU7.5
- wk5Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech6.5
- wk13Virginia at Virginia Tech6.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Virginia Tech is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Holiday Bowl7.8%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl7.6%
- Sun Bowl7.6%
- Gator Bowl7.6%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl7.4%
- Pinstripe Bowl7.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Virginia Tech a player since 2010 — 26 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Virginia Tech's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.