@ Penn State · Wk 3Win prob 5%Model +25.4Schedule & Results
FIUFlorida InternationalL20-33✓Wk 3@PSUPenn State+25.45%Wk 4vsROMORobert MorrisWk 5vs
WMUWestern Michigan+13.818%Wk 6@
TOLToledo+14.718%Wk 7vs
MASSMassachusetts-22.595%Wk 8vs
BGSUBowling Green-10.976%Wk 10@
M-OHMiami (OH)+12.422%Wk 11@
BALLBall State+1.446%Wk 12vs
CMUCentral Michigan-0.552%Wk 13@
AKRAkron+12.621%Team Leaders
Elijah HolmesPassing253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Messiah BurchRushing90 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 avg
Chance MorrowReceiving18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD
Saveon BrownTackles16 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Buffalo
All news →Florida International moved the ball and scored nine
18 of Buffalo's 21 points came from Elijah Holmes
Roster · 118 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jason Wright | QB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Chesterfield, VA |
| 12 | Qur'An McNeill | QB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Boston, MA |
| 15 | Mason Cumbie | QB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Hopewell, VA |
| 16 | Elijah Holmes | QB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Charlotte, NC |
| 18 | Jake Forburger | QB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Bethesda, MD |
| 0 | Nino Hill | RB | SO | 5'10" | 217 | Canton, OH |
| 4 | Messiah Burch | RB | SR | 5'9" | 190 | Staten Island, NY |
| 21 | Devare Mathis | RB | SR | 5'11" | 215 | Buffalo, NY |
| 24 | James McNeil Jr. | RB | JR | 6'0" | 217 | Buffalo, NY |
| 25 | Terrance Shelton Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 213 | Franklin, WI |
| 26 | Chase Enlow | RB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Manalapan, NJ |
| 1 | Phillip Folmar | WR | SO | 5'9" | 185 | Morristown, NJ |
| 2 | Jaylen Andrews | WR | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Williamsport, PA |
| 3 | Patrick Clacks III | WR | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Hobart, IN |
| 6 | Chance Morrow | WR | SR | 6'4" | 191 | Charlotte, NC |
| 8 | Jasaiah Gathings | WR | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Statesville, NC |
| 9 | Alvin Jones III | WR | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 10 | Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. | WR | SR | 5'7" | 172 | Port Jefferson Station, NY |
| 11 | Dwayne Early Jr. | WR | SO | 6'4" | 198 | Springfield, MA |
| 13 | Bobby Mays | WR | JR | 6'5" | 190 | Bergenfield, NJ |
| 14 | Tyrell Simmons Jr. | WR | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Rochester, NY |
| 17 | Jeremiah Watkins | WR | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Gahanna, OH |
| 28 | Shey Williams | WR | JR | 6'0" | 181 | Lockport, NY |
| 82 | Terrell Richards | WR | SR | 5'8" | 170 | Rochester, NY |
| 83 | Jack Eskridge | WR | FR | 5'6" | 150 | Buffalo, NY |
| 88 | Aaron Clark | WR | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 5 | Clint Walker | TE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Goshen, IN |
| 45 | Stone Rozak | TE | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Buffalo, NY |
| 81 | TJ Sabatucci | TE | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 85 | Aiden Howard | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Binghamton, NY |
| 86 | Michael Gelatko | TE | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Andreas, PA |
| 87 | Trevor Wilson | TE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Park Hills, KY |
| 89 | Nick Leonard | TE | JR | 6'3" | 255 | Victor, NY |
| 51 | Tyrone Davis | OL | JR | 6'4" | 298 | Syracuse, NY |
| 55 | Thomas Barr | OL | SO | 6'3" | 292 | Havertown, PA |
| 56 | Marco Cate | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Carmel, IN |
| 58 | Ben Foglia-Albrecht | OL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Buffalo, NY |
| 59 | Gabriel Arena | OL | SR | 6'4" | 293 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 60 | Val Kondratenko | OL | JR | 6'5" | 290 | Rochester, NY |
| 62 | Paul Clark | OL | JR | 6'2" | 285 | Crown Point, IN |
| 64 | Jacob Merritt | OL | SR | 6'6" | 304 | Northville, MI |
| 68 | Mike Whalen | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Natick, MA |
| 69 | Jackson Bellamy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 341 | Ancaster, ON |
| 70 | Robbie Westmiller | OL | SO | 6'1" | 271 | Alden, NY |
| 71 | Caleb Watts | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Prince George, VA |
| 72 | Jaden Maxey | OL | FR | 6'6" | 290 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 74 | Nino Francavilla | OL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Toronto, ON |
| 75 | Ahmaan Thomas | OL | JR | 6'4" | 320 | Mansfield, OH |
| 76 | Nathan Natoli | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Olney, MD |
| 77 | Jackson Davenport | OL | SO | 6'5" | 270 | Darien, CT |
| 78 | Joe Crocker | OL | SR | 6'6" | 339 | Ascot |
| 79 | Cam Davis | OL | FR | 6'5" | 280 | Newark, OH |
| 11 | Will Clark | EDGE | JR | 6'3" | 258 | Crown Point, IN |
| 15 | Sedrick Vessah | EDGE | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Chambersburg, PA |
| 16 | Caleb Oliver | EDGE | JR | 6'2" | 235 | Deltona, FL |
| 17 | Logan Goodwin | EDGE | JR | 6'4" | 240 | West Chester, PA |
| 30 | Jacari Bennett | EDGE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Simpsonville, SC |
| 34 | Preston Lunsford | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Newark, OH |
| 35 | Malachi Ervin | EDGE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Pickerington, OH |
| 49 | Aiden Anderson | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Orlando, FL |
| 50 | Zach Pettitt | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Carthage, NY |
| 91 | Henri Zeneli | EDGE | SO | 6'2" | 245 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 94 | Noah Wittmer | EDGE | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Webster, NY |
| 88 | Rex Stinchcomb | DL | SO | 6'2" | 285 | Herndon, VA |
| 97 | Christopher Climes | DL | SO | 6'1" | 280 | La Belle, PA |
| 55 | Mason Nickel | DT | JR | 6'1" | 290 | Midland, MI |
| 59 | Royce Rogers | DT | FR | 6'0" | 270 | Springfield, OH |
| 66 | Will Reed | DT | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Oak Park, MI |
| 92 | Luke Yau Gayle | DT | JR | 6'4" | 280 | London |
| 95 | Stantavious Smith | DT | SR | 6'1" | 280 | Albany, GA |
| 96 | Charlton Goodell | DT | SR | 5'10" | 245 | Bradenton, FL |
| 98 | Mason Naple | DT | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Victor, NY |
| 99 | Cornell Evans | DT | SR | 6'0" | 290 | Baltimore, MD |
| 1 | SaVeon Brown | LB | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Phoenix, IL |
| 2 | Stevie Bracey | LB | SR | 6'0" | 235 | Atlanta, GA |
| 13 | Joey Cheshire | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Lakeland, FL |
| 18 | George Hill | LB | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Turtle Creek, PA |
| 19 | Mathew Hilty | LB | SR | 5'11" | 220 | Apollo, PA |
| 20 | DJ Mangan | LB | JR | 6'1" | 239 | Maplewood, NJ |
| 21 | Bradley Ilunga-Bisselele | LB | SO | 6'0" | 221 | Montreal, PQ |
| 25 | Na'Rod Jarvis | LB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 31 | Drake Saltarelli | LB | JR | 6'0" | 218 | Belleair Bluffs, FL |
| 32 | Matthew Heininger | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Rochester, NY |
| 33 | Jordan Owens | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | Endwell, NY |
| 40 | Amari Snowden | LB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Rochester, NY |
| 44 | Zach Bergmann | LB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Rogersville, MO |
| 51 | Anwar Witherspoon Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Edison, NJ |
| 52 | Jack Garbolino | LB | FR | 6'1" | 227 | North Brunswick, NJ |
| 0 | Kobi Blackwell | CB | JR | 5'8" | 180 | Buford, GA |
| 3 | Oliver Bridges | CB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Potomac, MD |
| 5 | Mikey Crawford | CB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 8 | Ramari Taylor | CB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Jeffersontown, KY |
| 9 | Keontez Bradley | CB | SR | 6'2" | 185 | Mansfield, OH |
| 12 | Jackson Small | CB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 22 | Donovan Rodriguez | CB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Lancaster, PA |
| 24 | Sayre Smothers | CB | SO | 5'10" | 160 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 27 | Davion Coffee | CB | JR | 5'9" | 195 | Rochester, NY |
| 28 | Drayson Crane | CB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Dallas, TX |
| 29 | Cardel Staples | CB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Buffalo, NY |
| 37 | Jamarcus Jones | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Columbus, OH |
| 4 | Ronnell Davis | S | JR | 6'0" | 193 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 6 | Miles Greer | S | SR | 5'10" | 195 | Springfield, VA |
| 7 | John Keough | S | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Macedonia, OH |
| 10 | Jamiere Munson | S | SR | 5'10" | 196 | Rochester, NY |
| 14 | Jonathan Rousseau | S | SO | 6'0" | 193 | Coconut Creek, FL |
| 23 | Xavier Leonard | S | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Atlanta, GA |
| 26 | Zae Jennings | S | JR | 6'0" | 192 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 38 | Dylan Cleary | S | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Ellicott City, MD |
| 43 | Xair Stevenson | S | SO | 6'0" | 188 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 47 | Bryce Williams | S | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Venice, FL |
| 31 | Oliver Hautanen | PK | SO | 5'11" | 182 | Colleyville, TX |
| 39 | Blake Sholder | PK | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Voorhees, NJ |
| 96 | Zach McGowan | PK | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Tonawanda, NY |
| 90 | Ethan Stumpf | P | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Park Ridge, IL |
| 93 | Andrew VanSlyke | P | SR | 6'3" | 209 | Powhatan, VA |
| 95 | Evan Pfeifer | P | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 42 | Sam Stratton | LS | JR | 6'0" | 185 | East Amherst, NY |
| 48 | Joseph Stoever | LS | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Savannah, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Buffalo is in year 3 under Pete Lembo, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 134th at running it, and they are 130th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Buffalo has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#134projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Offensethrowing it#128projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.99#72
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.55 / 1.36
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 18.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 19.4%#47
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.1% / 8.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.06#107 | 0.08#92 | 0.57#74 |
| Defense | -0.16#43 | 0.06#62 | 0.00#15 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1537th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0568th
- Offense success rate40%32nd
- Defense success rate allowed29%76th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%35th
- Offense success — passing downs30%36th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs37%69th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%69th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.137th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.337th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9026th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.944th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.044th
- Defense line yards allowed2.466th
- Offense highlight yards1.463rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2175th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.1840th
- Defense stuff rate0.2981st
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced6.848th
- Third down conversion allowed28%69th
- Third down distance forced8.166th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2673rd
- Net success rate — second half-0.0826th
Roster
- Returning usage15%15th
- Returning EPA-1.61st
- Team talent composite54913th
- Recruiting class rank10127th
- Recruiting class points17727th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.223 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Buffalo is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Buffalo in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 25% | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 6-1 | 5-1 | 86% | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 2018 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 2017 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 50% | 6.9 | -0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.0-5.2. Wins the Mid-American in 7.9%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
up 0.3 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 28% where the average Mid-American team is 27%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.7% of seasons, having won their league in 93% of those.
Buffalo’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk5vs Western Michigan2.0
- wk6at Toledo1.7
- wk10at Miami (OH)1.5
- wk2at Florida International1.3
- wk8vs Bowling Green1.1
- wk13at Akron1.0
Who to root for
Games Buffalo is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.4
- wk3Eastern Michigan over Wisconsin0.4
- wk2Robert Morris over Akron0.3
- wk12Kennesaw State over Florida International0.3
- wk3Middle Tennessee over Nevada0.3
- wk3Arkansas over Georgia0.3
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 4.4-3.65 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5Western Michigan at Buffalo17.8
- wk3Buffalo at Penn State15.7
- wk6Buffalo at Toledo14.5
- wk10Buffalo at Miami (OH)13.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Buffalo is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl13%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl8.5%
- Boca Raton Bowl7.5%
- Cure Bowl7.3%
- Arizona Bowl6.6%
- Frisco Bowl6.3%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Buffalo a player since 2010 — 13 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Buffalo's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.