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Virginia

Virginia Cavaliers

ACC·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1652#32
SP+
11.5#30
FPI
11.1
AP
#25
Nextvs West Virginia · Wk 3Win prob 95%Model -25.6
Talent #53 (700.2)Recruiting class #11110% production returning

Roster · 120 players

FR 17SO 24JR 27SR 52
#PlayerPosClHtWt
6Cole GeerQBSO6'1"209
7Beau PribulaQBSR6'2"209
10Eli HolsteinQBSR6'4"234
14Boone LourdQBJR6'1"203
16Ely HamrickQBFR6'5"230
17Jae'Oyn WilliamsQBFR5'10"217
0Xavier BrownRBSR5'10"202
2Peyton LewisRBJR6'1"212
3Noah VaughnRBSR5'9"196
21Jekail MiddlebrookRBSR5'10"198
25Xay DavisRBSO5'10"205
28Solomon BeebeRBJR5'10"199
37Jack StevensRBSO5'10"198
4Jacquon GibsonWRSR5'11"196
5Kameron CourtneyWRJR5'11"195
8Ty'Lyric ColemanWRSR6'2"198
11Rico Flores Jr.WRSR6'2"211
13Josiah AbdullahWRSO5'10"192
15Dillon Newton-ShortWRSO6'0"206
18Da'Shawn MartinWRJR6'0"180
22Tyson DavisWRSR5'10"187
23Triston WardWRJR6'1"189
26Jack RhodesWRFR6'1"175
29CJ SpenceWRSO6'4"204
45Brand MorganWRSO6'3"207
80Trevor LaddWRJR6'2"242
81TeKai KirbyWRSR6'2"232
82DaMari CarterWRFR6'2"200
84Isaiah RobinsonWRSO6'2"215
85Dylan CopeWRFR6'3"193
9Dakota TwittyTESR6'5"247
30Henry OmohundroTEJR6'3"251
83Willem ThurberTESO6'5"234
86Lukas UngarTESR6'4"234
87Justin ZamesTESO6'4"238
88Connor CoxTESR6'6"250
89John RogersTESO6'4"239
94Hayden RollisonTESR6'3"235
51Grayson ReidOLSO6'3"309
52McKale BoleyOLSR6'5"329
54Makilan ThomasOLSR6'3"317
55Jim Harris Jr.OLSO6'5"295
57Luke HatfieldOLFR6'4"285
58Noah HartsoeOLSR6'3"317
60Drake MetcalfOLSR6'2"304
61Dane SteeleOLSR6'4"312
64Cole SurberOLSR6'5"305
65Grant EllingerOLJR6'4"303
66Mikey GildeaOLFR6'4"298
67Will RosenOLJR6'1"290
69Ryan BrubakerOLSR6'6"313
70Dane WleklinskiOLJR6'6"302
71Monroe MillsOLSR6'7"322
72Ben YorkOLJR6'5"314
75Dylan BiehlOLFR6'4"277
76Alex PayneOLSO6'5"312
77Noah JoseyOLSR6'5"315
79Jon AdairOLSO6'5"308
14Fisher CamacDESR6'7"262
16Matthew Fobbs-WhiteDESR6'3"245
19Evan WardDESO6'5"250
33Nnanna AnyanwuDESR6'5"251
47Gabe SneedDESR6'4"260
53Gavin JohnsonDESO6'1"234
85Jewett HayesDEJR6'4"241
93Billy KoudelkaDEJR6'8"256
94Ezekiel LarryDESR6'2"240
99Devon BaxterDEJR6'6"244
36Justin TownsendDLSR6'2"265
88Kervins ChouteDLSR6'4"293
44Darrion Henry-YoungDTSR6'4"295
46Chase MorrisonDTJR6'4"271
51Sichan JohnDTSO6'3"302
55Anthony BrittonDTSR6'3"308
56Tyler SimmonsDTJR6'3"278
91Jason HammondDTSR6'2"284
92Jonathan AllenDTSR6'2"304
96Bull RichardsonDTFR6'1"300
5Kam RobinsonLBSR6'2"239
11Maddox MarcellusLBSR6'2"232
13Myles BrownLBJR6'3"226
25Derek UranLBFR6'2"205
26Caleb HardyLBSR6'4"217
28Dallas BrannonLBFR6'2"219
32Landon DanleyLBSR6'3"225
42Isaiah ReeseLBSO6'3"222
45Justin RoweLBSO6'2"239
49Cayden Cook-CashLBJR6'3"231
3Kevon GrayCBJR6'0"180
7Josiah PersingerCBSO5'11"179
9Jam JacksonCBSR6'2"184
10Jacobie HendersonCBSR5'11"198
17Justin RossCBJR6'2"187
20Omillio AgardCBJR5'11"187
22Isaiah HarrisCBFR6'1"180
29Jayden CovilCBFR5'11"161
0Ja'Maric MorrisDBSR6'3"219
2Donavon PlattDBSR5'11"212
15Lukas SankerDBSR6'0"202
27Alex DunnDBFR6'0"180
31Patrick CampbellDBSR6'0"195
1Montino WilliamsSSO6'3"211
4Corey CostnerSSO6'1"213
6Brandyn HillmanSSR6'0"190
8Christian EllisSSR6'0"206
18Jalen McNairSSR5'8"221
21Keke AdamsSJR6'0"198
23Jaylen JonesSSR6'1"205
30Ethan MinterSJR6'0"195
34Kevin Chadwick Jr.SSR5'11"209
38Armstrong JonesSJR6'1"183
14Tim HamannPKFR5'11"180
41Will BettridgePKSR5'11"191
43Chris MessmorePKFR6'2"185
90Aiden BellPKFR6'0"175
38Daniel SparksPSR6'7"226
99Elijah SlibeckPSR6'6"236
39Zach ChristinatLSJR6'1"210
49Jacob TannenbaumLSSO6'1"212
50Wyatt RubinoffLSJR6'2"220

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
46.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
5.5
scoring defense
Differential
+41.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
439.5#46
Yards / play
6.8#41
Passing yards / game
192.0#100
Rushing yards / game
247.5#19
First downs / game
22.0#55
3rd down %
31.8%#116
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
33:09#30
Defense
Yards allowed / game
195.5#10
Yards / play allowed
3.4#6
Pass yards allowed / game
130.0#17
Rush yards allowed / game
65.5#13
3rd down % allowed
26.7%#27
Sacks
4#59
Tackles for loss
12#52
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+4#11
Takeaways
5#9
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
4.0#17
Penalty yards / game
38.0#30

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Virginia is in year 5 under Tony Elliott, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 26th at closing out passing downs.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Virginia has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #26
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
10.8 – 1.2
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
8.8
of 10 games
Bowl odds
100%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
98%
vs North Carolina
Toughest
67%
vs SMU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 39% chance
Likeliest finish 11-1 (39%)Bowl eligible 100% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBBeau Pribula, Eli Holstein
+27.8 EPA
RBXavier Brown, Noah Vaughn +3
+20.6 EPA
WRJacquon Gibson, Tylyric Coleman +2
+17.3 EPA
TEDakota Twitty, Connor Cox
-0.2 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBBeau Pribula
~$917K
EPA +27.80.661/play42 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.4387th#19
Def-0.1193rd#11
Explosiveness
Off1.1424th#105
Def0.6499th#1
Field position
Off63.89th#125
Def75.123rd#106
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.9474th#37
Def0.5099th#1
Turnovers
Won 5Lost 1
Margin +4

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.7493rd#11
Off · rush
0.3585th#21

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.3584th#23
Def-0.2392nd#12
Passing
Off0.7493rd#11
Def-0.0495th#8

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.80#17
2nd-level / open-field
1.59 / 1.01
Power / stuff (off)
85.7% / 11.8%
Havoc — total (def)
24.8%#11
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.1% / 13.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.47
Def-0.17
Pass downs
Off0.22
Def-0.02

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.32#140.60#13-0.15#133
Defense-0.07#60-0.37#70.31#66

Elo Trajectory

NC StateFinal
Elo rating 1591 → 1652+61 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2754th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1484th
  • Offense success rate48%58th
  • Defense success rate allowed31%68th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs53%60th
  • Offense success — passing downs23%22nd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs38%68th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs21%66th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.120th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.5399th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.158th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.17th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.361st
  • Defense line yards allowed3.124th
  • Offense highlight yards0.7744th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.2374th
  • Offense power success0.8369th
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1459th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1425th

Third down

  • Third down conversion21%11th
  • Third down distance faced3.999th
  • Third down conversion allowed31%66th
  • Third down distance forced7.044th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.2774th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1361st

Drives

  • Points per drive3.174th
  • Points per drive allowed0.6488th
  • Average starting field position3166th
  • Opponent starting field position2848th
  • Available yards gained51%59th
  • Available yards allowed24%90th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive91%75th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed82%48th
  • Points per scoring opportunity3.469th
  • Points allowed per opportunity0.7892nd
  • Three-and-out rate18%73rd
  • Three-and-outs forced55%93rd

Roster

  • Returning usage14%13th
  • Returning EPA34.919th
  • Team talent composite70062nd
  • Recruiting class rank11120th
  • Recruiting class points17220th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.430#19 · top 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.744#11
Rush EPA/play
+0.351#23
Explosiveness
1.142#105
Pts/opportunity
4.94#37
Success rate
58.8%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.393 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — top 8 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.107#11 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
24.8%#11
Front-7 havoc
11.1%
DB havoc
13.7%
Big play rate allowed
0.638#1
Success rate allowed
35.4%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

46.5 PPG offense, 5.5 allowed — +41.0 margin/game
Points per game
46.5
Points allowed/game
5.5
Scoring margin/game
+41.0
Turnover margin
+4won 5 · lost 1
Production returning
10%
Talent rank (247)
#53

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE87thEXPLOSIVENESS24thFINISHING74thFIELD POS9thDEFENSE93thHAVOC93th50th100th
Offense
87th
Explosiveness
24th
Finishing
74th
Field Pos
9th
Defense
93th
Havoc
93th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+13.1
#27
Offense
+1.8
#53
Defense
-11.3
#10
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive3.090.64
Starting field positionown 30.5own 28.1
Available yards51.0%23.8%
Scoring opportunities90.9%81.8%
Points per opportunity3.400.78
Three-and-out rate18.2%54.5%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
19.3%
Expected, given the spots
42.1%
Over expected
-22.8
Fourth down vs peers
+14
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Virginia is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Virginia in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Virginia TechSP+ +12.4
Off EPA/play +0.457Def EPA/play -0.147Elo 1421
Match
97%
TennesseeSP+ +19.9
Off EPA/play +0.406Def EPA/play -0.059Elo 1691
Match
97%
MarylandSP+ +9.1
Off EPA/play +0.348Def EPA/play -0.059Elo 1424
Match
94%
South CarolinaSP+ +16.7
Off EPA/play +0.347Def EPA/play -0.047Elo 1742
Match
94%
ToledoSP+ -9.4
Off EPA/play +0.360Def EPA/play -0.023Elo 1568
Match
94%
Notre DameSP+ +26.8
Off EPA/play +0.464Def EPA/play -0.225Elo 2021
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -5.2, #83 of 1282016: -12.7, #101 of 1282017: -4.1, #76 of 1302018: +12.0, #25 of 1302019: +2.3, #51 of 1302020: -1.6, #71 of 1242021: -1.0, #75 of 1302022: -5.0, #83 of 1312023: -5.4, #87 of 1332024: -11.9, #107 of 1342025: +10.3, #39 of 1362026: +13.1, #27 of 138
20152026
Now +13.1 · #27 of 138Best +13.1 in 2026Worst -12.7 in 2016

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-01-0
100%
2.0+0.0
202511-37-1
79%
8.7+2.3
20245-73-5
42%
4.3+0.7
20233-92-6
25%
5.3-2.3
20223-71-6
30%
4.1-1.1
20216-64-5
50%
4.6+1.4
20205-54-5
50%
4.3+0.7
20199-56-3
64%
8.4+0.6
20188-54-4
62%
9.4-1.4
20176-73-5
46%
5.8+0.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

20%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 9.1-3.2. Top-four bye in 4.0%. Wins the ACC in 8.8%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
93%
1 loss
23%
2 losses
1.0%
3 losses
0.0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

up 9.0 points since preseason — won 34-8 over NC State against an expected margin of +5, so +21.2 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 23% where the average ACC team is 44%.
  • The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.

Virginia’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk7at SMU27.8
  • wk13at Virginia Tech26.0
  • wk5at Florida State24.8
  • wk9at Wake Forest23.2
  • wk8vs Duke22.7
  • wk12vs North Carolina22.4

Who to root for

Games Virginia is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10NC State over Duke2.0
  • wk6NC State over Wake Forest1.9
  • wk5Clemson over Miami1.8
  • wk5NC State over Louisville1.8
  • wk12Michigan State over Oregon1.7
  • wk5South Alabama over UL Monroe1.6
The full playoff picture →

ACC

1-0 in league play, projected 6.3-2.73 of 17 by title odds
8.8%
Wins the ACC
25%
Reaches the title game

The ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk7Virginia at SMU14.2
  • wk13Virginia at Virginia Tech10.9
  • wk5Virginia at Florida State9.9
  • wk8Duke at Virginia9.7

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →

If not the playoff, then

96%
Bowl eligible
75%
Placed in a bowl
20%
In the playoff
4.8%
Season over in November

Virginia is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Gator Bowl17%
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl13%
  • Holiday Bowl10%
  • Sun Bowl8.7%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl6.7%
  • Pinstripe Bowl5.7%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Virginia a player since 2010 — 17 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Virginia's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Fork Union Military AcademyVA61
EpiscopalVA40
Our Lady of Good CounselMD40
Highland SpringsVA20
PlaquemineLA11
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.