Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Braden AtkinsonPassing775 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Aaron ButlerRushing34 yds · 0 TD · 11.3 avg
Jesse LegreeReceiving13 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD
Aiden SullivanTackles19 tackles · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Oregon State
All news →Oregon State moves the ball and gets nothing for it
Conner Weigman produced 11 of Houston's 13 explosive plays
The 4.3 points between our Houston number and the market are offseason arithmetic
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Braden Atkinson | QB | SO | 6'1" | 208 | Raleigh, NC |
| 6 | Maalik Murphy | QB | SR | 6'5" | 238 | Inglewood, CA |
| 10 | Brady Jones | QB | SR | 6'4" | 197 | Murrieta, CA |
| 13 | Danny Leary | QB | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Portland, OR |
| 19 | Isaiah Arriaza | QB | FR | 5'9" | 182 | La Verne, CA |
| 3 | Cornell Hatcher Jr. | RB | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Corona, CA |
| 22 | Tre Garrison | RB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | New Orleans, LA |
| 23 | AJ Newberry | RB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Grand Prairie, TX |
| 25 | Kourdey Glass | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Hanford, CA |
| 27 | Rocco De La Rosa | RB | FR | 6'1" | 202 | Philomath, OR |
| 33 | Skyler Jackson | RB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 34 | Jake Reichle | RB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 0 | Aaron Butler | WR | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Calabasas, CA |
| 1 | Adonis McDaniel | WR | SR | 5'8" | 172 | Columbia, SC |
| 4 | Xavyion Noland | WR | JR | 5'6" | 170 | San Diego, CA |
| 5 | Karson Boschma | WR | SR | 6'3" | 202 | Tigard, OR |
| 7 | Aeryn Hampton | WR | SO | 5'10" | 194 | Daingerfield, TX |
| 12 | Jesse Legree | WR | FR | 5'10" | 172 | Baltimore, MD |
| 14 | Eddie Freauff | WR | SO | 6'4" | 220 | Prineville, OR |
| 15 | Jameson Powell | WR | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Folsom, CA |
| 16 | Cynai Thomas | WR | FR | 6'3" | 188 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 17 | Malachi Durant | WR | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Seattle, WA |
| 18 | Jayden Padgett | WR | FR | 6'4" | 202 | Tampa, FL |
| 21 | MJ Kennybrew | WR | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Portland, OR |
| 41 | Jhae Drummer | WR | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Long Beach, CA |
| 88 | Ross Nickson | WR | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 8 | DeCorion Temple | TE | SR | 6'6" | 245 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 80 | Eric Olsen | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | St. George, UT |
| 81 | Landon Cook | TE | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Concord, CA |
| 82 | Gabe Milbourn | TE | SR | 6'5" | 250 | Sonora, CA |
| 84 | Cody Siegner | TE | FR | 6'7" | 255 | Crane, OR |
| 87 | Jackson Bowers | TE | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Mesa, AZ |
| 89 | T'Andre Waverly | TE | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Everett, WA |
| 50 | Teko Shoats | OL | JR | 6'3" | 295 | Miami, FL |
| 51 | Maddox Conway | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Corvallis, OR |
| 55 | Tanu A'aitui | OL | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Layton, UT |
| 56 | Carter Guillaume | OL | SO | 6'1" | 295 | Louisville, KY |
| 58 | Jack Wagner | OL | SO | 6'3" | 295 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 59 | Frankie Petuya | OL | JR | 6'5" | 318 | Novato, CA |
| 61 | Jake Normoyle | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | West Linn, OR |
| 65 | Peter Langi | OL | FR | 6'4" | 380 | San Francisco, CA |
| 67 | Broderick Shull | OL | FR | 6'6" | 331 | Bixby, OK |
| 69 | Kwan Johnson | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Blue Island, IL |
| 70 | Michael Langi | OL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | San Bruno, CA |
| 71 | Josiah Timoteo | OL | JR | 6'5" | 310 | Waianae, HI |
| 72 | Noah Thomas | OL | FR | 6'6" | 305 | Vancouver, WA |
| 74 | Jacob Anderson | OL | JR | 6'6" | 300 | Billings, MT |
| 75 | Will Larkins | OL | JR | 6'5" | 312 | Hollywood, FL |
| 76 | Ben Hartman | OL | JR | 6'5" | 315 | Austin, TX |
| 78 | Nathan Elu | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | San Mateo, CA |
| 79 | Tyler Voltin | OL | SR | 6'5" | 335 | — |
| 45 | Jesse Myers | DT | FR | 6'3" | 256 | Ukiah, CA |
| 59 | Tevita Pome'e | DT | JR | 6'3" | 310 | Haakame |
| 60 | Tiger Black | DT | JR | 6'1" | 310 | Roseburg, OR |
| 62 | Jacob Schuster | DT | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Lacey, WA |
| 90 | Daniel Matagi | DT | SR | 6'0" | 305 | Chehalis, WA |
| 91 | Jaylen Hill | DT | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Portland, OR |
| 92 | Nick Norris | DT | SR | 6'5" | 285 | Fort Morgan, CO |
| 93 | Lolani Finau | DT | JR | 6'3" | 285 | Hawthorne, CA |
| 94 | Cameron Hewitt | DT | SO | 6'2" | 320 | Pearl, MS |
| 95 | Tygee Hill | DT | SR | 6'3" | 292 | New Orleans, LA |
| 96 | Luke Levengood | DT | SR | 6'3" | 275 | Vacaville, CA |
| 97 | Tyler Bailey | DT | JR | 6'2" | 308 | Hammond, LA |
| 1 | Dylan Layne | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 2 | Aiden Sullivan | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Twentynine Palms, CA |
| 6 | Jabari Odoemenem | LB | SR | 6'1" | 234 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 9 | Raesjon Davis | LB | SR | 6'0" | 228 | Norco, CA |
| 10 | Logan Knapp | LB | FR | 6'7" | 255 | Clayton, CA |
| 12 | Gyriece Goodman | LB | SR | 6'2" | 212 | De Pere, WI |
| 13 | Jeremiah Brown | LB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Menifee, CA |
| 14 | Kord Shaw | LB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Ogden, UT |
| 17 | Ish Findlayter | LB | JR | 6'4" | 260 | Toronto, CA |
| 18 | Jarrel Comer | LB | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Gainesville, FL |
| 42 | Caleb Metzner | LB | FR | 6'2" | 256 | Mobile, AL |
| 44 | Takari Hickle | LB | SR | 6'3" | 270 | Tenino, WA |
| 47 | Tyree Blake | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Portland, OR |
| 48 | Jessaia Moala | LB | JR | 5'11" | 232 | Syracuse, UT |
| 50 | Will Haverland | LB | SO | 6'6" | 250 | Eugene, OR |
| 54 | Clive Pond | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Enumclaw, WA |
| 55 | Jeremiah Ioane | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 58 | Adrian Onyiego | LB | SO | 6'3" | 230 | Rogers, MN |
| 88 | Adel Dorr | LB | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Issaquah, WA |
| 99 | Niklas Fisher | LB | FR | 6'4" | 260 | Cypress, TX |
| 0 | Harlem Howard | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 4 | TJ Crandall | DB | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Sammamish, WA |
| 5 | Xander Chisolm | DB | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 6 | Jaheim Patterson | DB | JR | 6'4" | 210 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 7 | Kahanu Kalahiki | DB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Kaimuki, HI |
| 8 | Sailasa Vadrawale III | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Rohnert Park, CA |
| 15 | RJ Whitten | DB | SO | 6'0" | 202 | Sacramento, CA |
| 19 | Trey Glasper | DB | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 20 | David Madison | DB | FR | 6'0" | 176 | Plano, TX |
| 21 | Noble Thomas Jr. | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Orange City, FL |
| 22 | Isaiah Houi | DB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Rockton, IL |
| 23 | Exodus Ayers | DB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 24 | Tyjai Hopper | DB | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 25 | Kai Wheaton | DB | FR | 5'11" | 182 | Allen, TX |
| 26 | Marquis Raspberry | DB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Washington, DC |
| 28 | Blake Thompson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Richmond, TX |
| 29 | Zephen Walker | DB | FR | 5'11" | 198 | Lewisville, TX |
| 33 | Sean Craig | DB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 36 | Drake Vickers | DB | SR | 6'3" | 204 | North Hollywood, CA |
| 38 | Milan Clark | DB | JR | 6'1" | 182 | Portland, OR |
| 28 | Caleb Ojeda | PK | SR | 5'9" | 185 | Morgan Hill, CA |
| 37 | Cameron Smith | PK | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Loomis, CA |
| 98 | Jadyn Oh | PK | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Chantilly, VA |
| 38 | AJ Winsor | P | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Mukilteo, WA |
| 40 | Jonathan Zarut | LS | SO | 5'11" | 205 | Miami, FL |
| 47 | Tug Sanford | LS | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Allen, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 133rd at running it, and they are 118th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Oregon State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.63#12 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line9.8%#23 of 138
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.10#133 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.45#118 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.40#118 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 8 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.83#98
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.56 / 0.24
- Power / stuff (off)
- 60.0% / 9.8%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 17.2%#56
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.3% / 7.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.09#70 | 0.36#45 | 0.21#119 |
| Defense | -0.06#63 | 0.25#91 | 0.86#126 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1843rd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.3116th
- Offense success rate41%34th
- Defense success rate allowed50%14th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs47%39th
- Offense success — passing downs31%39th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs51%23rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs48%9th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.374th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.342nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.273rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.833rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.834th
- Defense line yards allowed3.313th
- Offense highlight yards0.007th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.815th
- Offense power success0.5022nd
- Defense power success allowed0.8628th
- Offense stuff rate0.0595th
- Defense stuff rate0.1532nd
Third down
- Third down conversion27%13th
- Third down distance faced7.428th
- Third down conversion allowed54%12th
- Third down distance forced7.246th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1122nd
- Net success rate — second half-0.0628th
Drives
- Points per drive2.154th
- Points per drive allowed3.129th
- Average starting field position2316th
- Opponent starting field position3040th
- Available yards gained45%40th
- Available yards allowed65%20th
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%31st
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.063rd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.137th
- Three-and-out rate20%66th
- Three-and-outs forced18%34th
Roster
- Returning usage50%60th
- Returning EPA97.347th
- Team talent composite63645th
- Recruiting class rank10028th
- Recruiting class points17728th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.470 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 70.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 58.6%
- Over expected
- +12.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- +3
- Fourth down vs the model
- +33
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Oregon State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Oregon State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 17% | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 1-0 | 42% | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 9.3 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 6-3 | 77% | 11.2 | -1.2 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 8.7 | -1.7 |
| 2020 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 29% | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 42% | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 2-10 | 1-8 | 17% | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 1-11 | 0-9 | 8% | 1.9 | -0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.2-6.0. Wins the Pac-12 in 6.3%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 69%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.5 points since preseason — lost 20-33 to Houston against an expected margin of −15, so +2.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 69% where the average Pac-12 team is 71%.
- The Pac-12 takes 0.22 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.3% of seasons, having won their league in 93% of those.
Oregon State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk2vs Texas Tech3.1
- wk11at Boise State1.6
- wk6vs San Diego State0.7
- wk9at Fresno State0.7
- wk7vs Washington State0.6
- wk5at Colorado State0.6
Who to root for
Games Oregon State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2Delaware over Vanderbilt0.3
- wk9Northern Illinois over UNLV0.3
- wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.2
- wk4Ohio State over Illinois0.2
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.2
- wk5Rice over UTSA0.2
Pac-12
0-0 in league play, projected 3.3-3.74 of 8 by title oddsThe Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Oregon State at Boise State17.7
- wk6San Diego State at Oregon State10.3
- wk7Washington State at Oregon State8.6
- wk9Oregon State at Fresno State8.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Oregon State is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Sun Bowl12%
- Holiday Bowl10%
- Las Vegas Bowl9.1%
- Alamo Bowl6.2%
- Independence Bowl3.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Oregon State a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Oregon State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.