vs Kennesaw State · Wk 3Win prob 91%Model -20.4Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Faizon BrandonPassing374 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
DeSean BishopRushing244 yds · 3 TD · 7.2 avg
Mike MatthewsReceiving6 rec · 148 yds · 2 TD
Amare CampbellTackles14 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Tennessee
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Faizon Brandon produced 7 of Tennessee's 13 explosive plays
Tennessee outduels Arkansas in a 65-point shootout, 34-31
We liked Tennessee by a touchdown-plus. They won by 71.
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ryan Staub | QB | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Stevenson Ranch, CA |
| 11 | Faizon Brandon | QB | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Greensboro, NC |
| 12 | George MacIntyre | QB | FR | 6'6" | 208 | Franklin, TN |
| 13 | Mason Phillips | QB | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Kodak, TN |
| 2 | Justin Baker | RB | SO | 5'10" | 210 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 6 | Javin Gordon | RB | SO | 5'10" | 212 | Toccoa, GA |
| 17 | Daune Morris | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 18 | DeSean Bishop | RB | JR | 5'10" | 215 | Knoxville, TN |
| 24 | Hunter Barnes | RB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Memphis, TN |
| 34 | Will Rajecki | RB | FR | 5'11" | 208 | Canton, GA |
| 1 | Travis Smith Jr. | WR | SO | 6'3" | 215 | Atlanta, GA |
| 3 | Radarious Jackson | WR | SO | 6'2" | 208 | Memphis, TN |
| 4 | Mike Matthews | WR | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Lilburn, GA |
| 5 | TK Keys | WR | FR | 6'2" | 198 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 9 | Joakim Dodson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Memphis, TN |
| 14 | Braylon Staley | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Aiken, SC |
| 19 | Tyreek King | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Knoxville, TN |
| 26 | Doren Sacha | WR | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Denver, CO |
| 29 | Jack-Henry Jakobik | WR | JR | 6'4" | 198 | Brentwood, TN |
| 30 | Jacolby Cooper | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Alcoa, TN |
| 31 | Lane Cope | WR | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Maryville, TN |
| 35 | Ben Petermann | WR | FR | 6'3" | 208 | Chicago, IL |
| 36 | Nathan Roberts | WR | JR | 6'4" | 209 | Morristown, TN |
| 38 | Brayden Carroll | WR | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Cleveland, TN |
| 81 | Ian Duarte | WR | JR | 5'10" | 181 | Santa Clarita, CA |
| 85 | Luke Thompson | WR | FR | 6'1" | 193 | Franklin, TN |
| 88 | Deon Hardin | WR | SR | 6'0" | 189 | Biloxi, MS |
| 0 | Ethan Davis | TE | JR | 6'5" | 247 | Atlanta, GA |
| 7 | DaSaahn Brame | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Derby, KS |
| 44 | Drake Martinez | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Houston, TX |
| 80 | Cole Harrison | TE | SO | 6'5" | 239 | San Mateo, CA |
| 82 | Trent Thomas | TE | JR | 6'5" | 252 | Mobile, AL |
| 87 | Luca Wolf | TE | FR | 6'5" | 255 | Vienna |
| 51 | Jeremias Heard | OL | SO | 6'8" | 335 | Rome, GA |
| 55 | Antoni Ogumoro | OL | SO | 6'4" | 320 | Saipan |
| 56 | Sam Pendleton | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Lawsonville, NC |
| 58 | Nic Moore | OL | FR | 6'3" | 313 | Talbott, TN |
| 59 | Charlie Powell III | OL | FR | 6'3" | 314 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 60 | Thomas Storm | OL | FR | 6'4" | 281 | Brighton, MI |
| 63 | Jeremy George-El | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Knoxville, TN |
| 65 | Michael Kostantonov | OL | SO | 6'4" | 322 | Northbrook, IL |
| 66 | Kamari Blair | OL | FR | 6'6" | 290 | Clarksville, TN |
| 69 | Donovan Haslam | OL | SR | 6'3" | 350 | Perry, GA |
| 70 | David Sanders Jr. | OL | SO | 6'6" | 310 | Charlotte, NC |
| 71 | Ed Baker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 322 | Baltimore, MD |
| 72 | Jesse Perry | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 74 | Shamurad Umarov | OL | JR | 6'7" | 321 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 75 | Wendell Moe Jr. | OL | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Long Beach, CA |
| 77 | Ory Williams | OL | SO | 6'8" | 330 | San Marcos, TX |
| 78 | Gage Ginther | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 79 | Gabriel Osenda | OL | FR | 6'8" | 330 | Airdrie, AB |
| 2 | Xavier Gilliam | DL | SO | 6'2" | 305 | Montgomery Village, MD |
| 5 | Daevin Hobbs | DL | SR | 6'4" | 290 | Concord, NC |
| 9 | Mariyon Dye | DL | SO | 6'5" | 270 | Elkhart, IN |
| 17 | Ethan Utley | DL | SO | 6'4" | 287 | Nashville, TN |
| 18 | Tyree Weathersby | DL | JR | 6'5" | 268 | Douglasville, GA |
| 19 | Nathan Robinson | DL | JR | 6'7" | 295 | Greenbrier, TN |
| 26 | JJ Finch | DL | FR | 6'3" | 293 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 33 | Jordan Norman | DL | JR | 6'4" | 265 | Hoover, AL |
| 35 | Carson Gentle | DL | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 36 | Carter Gooden | DL | FR | 6'4" | 267 | Marion, MA |
| 37 | Kedric Golston II | DL | FR | 6'3" | 243 | Leesburg, VA |
| 39 | Darryl Rivers | DL | FR | 6'5" | 287 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 44 | Christian Gass | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Covington, GA |
| 47 | Isaiah Campbell | DL | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Durham, NC |
| 55 | Mike Bethea II | DL | SR | 6'1" | 221 | Maryville, TN |
| 56 | Zach Groves | DL | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Cross Plains, TN |
| 59 | Dereon Albert | DL | FR | 6'1" | 309 | Jackson, MS |
| 85 | CJ Edwards | DL | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Edison, NJ |
| 87 | Nuk Simmons | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Columbus, GA |
| 95 | Breeze Carter | DL | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Douglasville, GA |
| 97 | Hezekiah Harris | DL | FR | 6'6" | 248 | Huntsville, AL |
| 99 | Charles House III | DL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Charlotte, NC |
| 0 | Amare Campbell | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Manassas, VA |
| 7 | Arion Carter | LB | SR | 6'1" | 238 | Smyrna, TN |
| 11 | Jordan Burns | LB | SO | 6'1" | 227 | Conyers, GA |
| 12 | Jaedon Harmon | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Rome, GA |
| 13 | Edwin Spillman | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Nashville, TN |
| 22 | Jeremiah Telander | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Gainesville, GA |
| 27 | Jadon Perlotte | LB | SO | 6'4" | 214 | Buford, GA |
| 28 | Brayden Rouse | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Woodstock, GA |
| 50 | Ryan Scott | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Knoxville, TN |
| 51 | TJ White | LB | FR | 6'2" | 237 | Jackson, MS |
| 57 | Grier Short | LB | SO | 6'1" | 222 | Franklin, TN |
| 1 | TJ Metcalf | DB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
| 3 | Tre Poteat III | DB | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Fitchburg, WI |
| 4 | Ty Redmond | DB | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 6 | Qua Moss | DB | SR | 5'10" | 188 | West Point, GA |
| 8 | Jadais Richard | DB | SR | 6'1" | 202 | West Monroe, LA |
| 10 | Dejuan Lane | DB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Jessup, MD |
| 14 | Kayin Lee | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 15 | Edrees Farooq | DB | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Columbia, MD |
| 20 | Tevis Metcalf | DB | SO | 5'10" | 202 | Birmingham, AL |
| 21 | Jamyan Theodore | DB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Cleveland, OH |
| 23 | Sidney Walton | DB | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Moody, AL |
| 24 | Dylan Lewis | DB | SO | 6'0" | 197 | Atlanta, GA |
| 25 | Tim Merritt | DB | SO | 6'1" | 194 | Birmingham, AL |
| 29 | Isaiah Hardge | DB | JR | 5'10" | 182 | Hollywood, FL |
| 30 | Javonte Smith | DB | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Jackson, TN |
| 31 | Joel Wyatt | DB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Shelbyville, TN |
| 34 | Zay Anderson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Greeneville, TN |
| 38 | Jowell Combay | DB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 40 | KJ McClain | DB | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Rahway, NJ |
| 42 | DJ Burks | DB | SR | 6'0" | 196 | Maryville, TN |
| 43 | Jackson Mathews | DB | SO | 6'0" | 196 | Franklin, TN |
| 28 | Cooper Ranvier | PK | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Lexington, KY |
| 93 | Grady Dangerfield | PK | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Charleston, SC |
| 94 | Josh Turbyville | PK | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Knoxville, TN |
| 98 | Jackson Ross | P | SR | 6'4" | 203 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 99 | Logan Foley | P | FR | 6'6" | 234 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 48 | Bennett Brady | LS | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Memphis, TN |
| 53 | Blake Howard | LS | JR | 6'2" | 222 | Cincinnati, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Tennessee is in year 6 under Josh Heupel, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#5projected
- Offensefirst and second down#8projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#8projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.72#21
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.50 / 1.84
- Power / stuff (off)
- 77.8% / 12.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.2%#15
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 15.2% / 9.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.18#43 | 0.46#26 | 0.90#19 |
| Defense | 0.02#92 | -0.48#3 | 0.70#113 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.5791st
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1382nd
- Offense success rate58%86th
- Defense success rate allowed25%88th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs62%88th
- Offense success — passing downs38%65th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs30%86th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs17%82nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.362nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.258th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.287th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.727th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.882nd
- Defense line yards allowed3.033rd
- Offense highlight yards2.585th
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.29th
- Offense power success0.8369th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.1177th
- Defense stuff rate0.2877th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced5.974th
- Third down conversion allowed29%69th
- Third down distance forced8.880th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2672nd
- Net success rate — second half0.4196th
Roster
- Returning usage37%43rd
- Returning EPA18673rd
- Team talent composite88691st
- Recruiting class rank8.095th
- Recruiting class points29195th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.075 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Tennessee is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Tennessee in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 9.2 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 30% | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 0-8 | 33% | 3.4 | +0.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.5-4.6. Top-four bye in 6.7%. Wins the SEC in 4.3%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 0.6 points since preseason.
- At 3 losses they are 32% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 3.83 bids in an average season, and four or more in 65%.
Tennessee’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs Texas34.6
- wk12vs LSU33.3
- wk11at Texas A&M32.7
- wk7vs Alabama29.3
- wk8at South Carolina28.6
- wk13at Vanderbilt23.9
Who to root for
Games Tennessee is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Delaware over Virginia2.0
- wk12Arkansas over Texas1.9
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.9
- wk5Mississippi State over Alabama1.9
- wk2Delaware over Vanderbilt1.8
- wk8Auburn over LSU1.8
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 4.8-4.28 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 48% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4Texas at Tennessee9.8
- wk12LSU at Tennessee9.3
- wk11Tennessee at Texas A&M8.5
- wk7Alabama at Tennessee7.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Tennessee is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.8% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Gator Bowl7.8%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl7.6%
- ReliaQuest Bowl7.5%
- Music City Bowl7.5%
- Citrus Bowl7.1%
- Texas Bowl6.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Tennessee a player since 2010 — 27 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Tennessee's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.