@ Akron · Wk 4Win prob 65%Model -6.4Schedule & Results
MEMMemphisL21-27✗Wk 1@
HAWHawai'iW21-6✗Wk 2@
UNTNorth TexasL6-44✓Wk 4@AKRAkron-6.465%Wk 5vs
CALCalifornia+0.349%Wk 6vs
NDSUNorth Dakota State-11.877%Wk 7@
AFAir Force-2.055%Wk 9vs
NIUNorthern Illinois-26.695%Wk 10vs
WYOWyoming-19.689%Wk 11@
UNMNew Mexico+1.447%Wk 12@
SJSUSan José State-22.394%Wk 13vs
NEVNevada-17.686%Team Leaders
Jackson ArnoldPassing601 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Jai'Den ThomasRushing224 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 avg
Tastean ReddicksReceiving8 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
Jake PopeTackles23 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on UNLV
All news →North Texas stops the run, not the pass
Jackson Arnold produced four of UNLV's six explosive plays
UNLV rebuilt its passing game; Hawai'i kept its own
18 of UNLV's 21 points came from Jackson Arnold
Jai'Den Thomas Runs at the Defense Charles Huff Brought With Him
Roster · 108 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Orji | QB | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Sachse, TX |
| 11 | Jackson Arnold | QB | SR | 6'1" | 220 | Denton, TX |
| 13 | Sebastian Circo | QB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 14 | Derek Garcia | QB | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Ventura, CA |
| 0 | Jaylon Glover | RB | SR | 5'9" | 210 | Lakeland, FL |
| 9 | Jai'Den Thomas | RB | SR | 5'9" | 195 | Atlanta, GA |
| 22 | Skylar Vann | RB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 23 | Kamran Williams | RB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Jefferson, TX |
| 24 | Darrien Jones | RB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Kansas City, MO |
| 29 | Mohammad Maali | RB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 2 | Taz Reddicks | WR | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 4 | DeAngelo Irvin Jr. | WR | SR | 5'8" | 170 | Midwest City, OK |
| 5 | Tavian McNair | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | North Las Vegas, NV |
| 6 | Kayden McGee | WR | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Muskogee, OK |
| 8 | Taeshaun Lyons | WR | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Hayward, CA |
| 10 | Troy Stellato | WR | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 15 | Tatum Bell Jr. | WR | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Frisco, TX |
| 17 | Amorion Walker | WR | SR | 6'4" | 190 | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 19 | Danny Boden | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Dunwoody, GA |
| 80 | Jesse Harden | WR | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Tampa, FL |
| 81 | Vincent Carner | WR | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Newbury Park, CA |
| 82 | Peyton Zachary | WR | FR | 5'8" | 170 | Atlanta, GA |
| 83 | Cassidee Miles | WR | FR | 6'5" | 190 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 86 | David Titone-Perez | WR | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Hacienda Heights, CA |
| 87 | Demari Nunley | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 41 | Aveon Williams | TE | FR | 6'5" | 265 | Casa Grande, AZ |
| 43 | Jae Beasley II | TE | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Henderson, NV |
| 84 | Keyan Burnett | TE | SR | 6'6" | 250 | Ladera Ranch, CA |
| 85 | Matt Byrnes | TE | SR | 6'6" | 250 | Chicago, IL |
| 88 | Velltray Jefferson | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Fresno, CA |
| 89 | Andreas Diaz-Nicolaidis | TE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Portland, OR |
| 50 | Tevita Tausinga | OL | FR | 6'5" | 350 | Sacramento, CA |
| 55 | Griffin Scroggs | OL | SR | 6'3" | 330 | Grayson, GA |
| 57 | Zach Scott | OL | FR | 6'5" | 325 | Henderson, NV |
| 60 | Josh Haney | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 61 | Fuad Maali | OL | FR | 6'6" | 285 | Orlando, FL |
| 62 | Eli Sanchez | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Sandusky, OH |
| 64 | Joe Metzger | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Franklinville, NJ |
| 65 | Ace Robinson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Oakland, CA |
| 66 | BJ Tolo | OL | JR | 6'1" | 320 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 67 | Malik White | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 68 | Ivan Pena | OL | FR | 6'6" | 345 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 70 | Alekai Afoa | OL | JR | 6'4" | 295 | San Ramon, CA |
| 71 | Ed Haynes | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Henderson, NV |
| 72 | Will Thomas | OL | SR | 6'7" | 305 | Tulsa, OK |
| 73 | Jesus Garcia II | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | San Diego, CA |
| 74 | Amare Taase | OL | SO | 6'4" | 330 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 75 | Mateo Bilaver | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | North Hollywood, CA |
| 76 | Chrysanthos Fetokakis | OL | FR | 6'5" | 335 | Houston, TX |
| 77 | Colton Thomasson | OL | JR | 6'8" | 325 | Spring Branch, TX |
| 78 | Jackson Brown | OL | JR | 6'6" | 310 | Danville, CA |
| 79 | Austin Boyd | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Lehi, UT |
| 32 | Kenji Scanlan | DE | SO | 6'2" | 245 | Tacoma, WA |
| 42 | Andre Porter | DE | SO | 6'2" | 245 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 0 | Cohen Fuller | DL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Inglewood, CA |
| 9 | Landen Thomas | DL | JR | 6'3" | 255 | Zachary, LA |
| 16 | Mohamed Altayeb | DL | SR | 6'4" | 290 | Castle Rock, CO |
| 40 | Armand Ausbon | DL | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Houston, TX |
| 44 | Kal-El Togafau | DL | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 48 | CJ Besser | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 54 | Poe Purcell | DL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 88 | Mo Abbasher | DL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Coppell, TX |
| 90 | Eliah Logo | DL | FR | 6'2" | 310 | Henderson, NV |
| 92 | Herb Gray | DL | SO | 6'3" | 275 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 94 | Lucas Conti | DL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Corona, CA |
| 95 | Bryce Waters | DL | FR | 6'4" | 320 | Tampa, FL |
| 96 | Prin Fox | DL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Cashmere, WA |
| 97 | Bryce Robinson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Marietta, GA |
| 99 | Jordan Covington | DL | FR | 6'4" | 290 | McKinney, TX |
| 3 | Dee Crayton | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 8 | Kamuela Ka'aihue | LB | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Papaikou, HI |
| 11 | Mark Iheanachor | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 15 | Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Kalihi, HI |
| 23 | Cam Santee | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Avon, OH |
| 30 | Jordan Njoku | LB | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 31 | Ronnell Hewitt Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 33 | Tate Matthews | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Denver, CO |
| 36 | Justin Flowe | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Chino, CA |
| 45 | Cole Albrecht | LB | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Sandy, UT |
| 51 | Alexander Green | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 52 | Jacob Beza | LB | SO | 6'0" | 235 | Henderson, NV |
| 91 | Elias Rudolph | LB | SO | 6'5" | 205 | Deerfield Beach, FL |
| 1 | Mumu Bin-Wahad | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 2 | Denver Harris | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 4 | Tony-Louis Nkuba | DB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Lewisville, TX |
| 5 | Quandarius Keyes | DB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Laurel, MS |
| 10 | Tre Fulton | DB | SO | 6'3" | 190 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 13 | Jaylen Allen | DB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 19 | Tylen Mathews | DB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Lake Cormorant, MS |
| 21 | Joshua Tuchek | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Long Beach, CA |
| 22 | Darien Lewis | DB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Amarillo, TX |
| 24 | Avery Helm | DB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Missouri City, TX |
| 27 | Cameron Parodi | DB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Milton, GA |
| 28 | Vern Blair | DB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Amarillo, TX |
| 29 | AJ Morton | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Seattle, WA |
| 37 | Triston Thomas | DB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Jake Pope | S | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Buford, GA |
| 14 | Logan Christensen | S | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Rancho Santa Margarita, CA |
| 20 | Landyn Cleveland | S | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Dallas, TX |
| 25 | Brock DeFries | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 32 | Ramon Villela | PK | JR | 6'2" | 210 | Upland, CA |
| 35 | Brayden Baker | PK | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 49 | Noah Randazzo | PK | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 26 | Matt Choules | P | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Canberra, ACT |
| 39 | Ethan Schwartz | P | SO | 6'5" | 205 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 46 | Mason Senzaki | LS | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 47 | Tyson Jacobson | LS | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Camas, WA |
| 56 | Andrew O'Reilly | LS | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Las Vegas, NV |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 3 games in
UNLV throws it: Dan Mullen's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The way in is 137th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 135th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UNLV has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.79#137 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.22#135 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.12#123 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.00#75
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.05 / 1.49
- Power / stuff (off)
- 68.8% / 15.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.1%#82
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.3% / 7.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.10#66 | 0.03#104 | 0.29#109 |
| Defense | 0.18#124 | 0.06#53 | 0.45#85 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1231st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1142nd
- Offense success rate35%19th
- Defense success rate allowed40%39th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%36th
- Offense success — passing downs18%10th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%36th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs26%54th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.480th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.258th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.288th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.273rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.255th
- Defense line yards allowed3.93rd
- Offense highlight yards2.182nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.231st
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.8042nd
- Offense stuff rate0.1556th
- Defense stuff rate0.1212th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%26th
- Third down distance faced7.819th
- Third down conversion allowed38%47th
- Third down distance forced7.455th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0443rd
- Net success rate — second half-0.1120th
Drives
- Points per drive1.846th
- Points per drive allowed1.466th
- Average starting field position2635th
- Opponent starting field position2387th
- Available yards gained50%55th
- Available yards allowed45%60th
- Scoring opportunities per drive87%63rd
- Scoring opportunities allowed74%65th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.132nd
- Points allowed per opportunity1.970th
- Three-and-out rate22%60th
- Three-and-outs forced35%71st
Roster
- Returning usage27%29th
- Returning EPA66.135th
- Team talent composite69660th
- Recruiting class rank63.055th
- Recruiting class points19655th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.085 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-2 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 23 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 42.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.0%
- Over expected
- -7.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- +12
- Fourth down vs the model
- +10
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. UNLV is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to UNLV in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 33% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 10-4 | 6-2 | 71% | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 11-3 | 6-2 | 79% | 10.9 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 17% | 3.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 0% | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 4.8 | +0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 9.0-3.6. Wins the Mountain West in 35%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 54%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 6.8 points since preseason — lost 21-27 to Memphis against an expected margin of +6, so −0.5 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 10% where the average Mountain West team is 6.6%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 6.0% of seasons, having won their league in 98% of those.
- The 2026 format is worth −0.7 points to them against the 2025 one.
UNLV’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at New Mexico11.3
- wk7at Air Force9.1
- wk5vs California8.1
- wk13vs Nevada7.7
- wk2at North Texas7.2
- wk12at San José State7.1
Who to root for
Games UNLV is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Texas State over Boise State2.0
- wk5Charlotte over Memphis1.7
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy1.6
- wk8Washington State over Boise State1.6
- wk6Fresno State over Boise State1.5
- wk10Colorado State over Boise State1.3
Mountain West
1-0 in league play, projected 6.3-1.71 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11UNLV at New Mexico35.1
- wk7UNLV at Air Force30.8
- wk13Nevada at UNLV29.0
- wk9Northern Illinois at UNLV24.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
UNLV is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- LA Bowl28%
- New Mexico Bowl20%
- Arizona Bowl9.4%
- Independence Bowl8.9%
- Frisco Bowl5.2%
- Cure Bowl4.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent UNLV a player since 2010 — 36 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of UNLV's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.