Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Marcus StokesPassing795 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
Jaylin CarterRushing375 yds · 6 TD · 8.7 avg
Hunter TiptonReceiving14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD
Zach RuffinTackles24 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 108 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Marcus Stokes | QB | JR | 6'2" | 209 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 3 | Air Noland | QB | SO | 6'2" | 214 | College Park, GA |
| 9 | Denzel Gardner | QB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Waldorf, MD |
| 15 | Gavin Owens | QB | FR | 6'5" | 199 | Rabun Gap, GA |
| 16 | Grant Troutman | QB | FR | 6'6" | 189 | Collierville, TN |
| 6 | Jaylin Carter | RB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Valdosta, GA |
| 7 | Dallan Hayden | RB | SR | 5'11" | 208 | Memphis, TN |
| 22 | Eric Perry | RB | FR | 5'10" | 194 | Southaven, MS |
| 23 | Jordan Thompson | RB | FR | 6'0" | 201 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 28 | Manny Covey | RB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Starke, FL |
| 30 | Isaiah McGill | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Nashville, TN |
| 1 | Tychaun Chapman | WR | SR | 5'9" | 178 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 4 | Terrell Timmons Jr. | WR | SR | 6'2" | 184 | Greensboro, NC |
| 5 | Stonka Burnside | WR | SO | 6'1" | 192 | Starkville, MS |
| 8 | Bryce Dorsey | WR | SO | 5'10" | 186 | Hitchcock, TX |
| 11 | Jermane Hayes | WR | SO | 5'10" | 160 | Orange City, FL |
| 12 | Brady Kluse | WR | JR | 6'2" | 199 | Acworth, GA |
| 13 | Jemyri Davis | WR | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 17 | Alante Brown | WR | SR | 5'11" | 196 | Chicago, IL |
| 19 | Jaylin Taylor | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Oxford, AL |
| 21 | Zechariah Jenkins | WR | FR | 6'1" | 192 | Laurel, MS |
| 80 | Joshua Joseph | WR | FR | 5'11" | 191 | Miami, FL |
| 82 | Justice Spann | WR | SO | 6'2" | 218 | Chandler, AZ |
| 85 | Jamar Jenkins | WR | FR | 5'10" | 166 | Memphis, TN |
| 0 | Hunter Tipton | TE | SR | 6'5" | 241 | Timpson, TX |
| 10 | TJ Johnson | TE | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 14 | Aidan O'Callaghan | TE | SO | 6'3" | 231 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 81 | Marshall Smith Jr. | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Collierville, TN |
| 86 | Jonathan Harding | TE | FR | 6'3" | 241 | The Villages, FL |
| 87 | Garrett Essner | TE | FR | 6'6" | 236 | Columbia, MO |
| 50 | Koby Keenum | OL | JR | 6'3" | 313 | Florence, AL |
| 55 | Maarten Woudsma | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Amersfoort |
| 56 | Jordan Foy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 340 | Pleasant Grove, AL |
| 58 | Bryce Vaughn | OL | FR | 6'7" | 278 | Nettleton, MS |
| 59 | Aaron Karas | OL | SR | 6'5" | 322 | Arvada, CO |
| 66 | Carde Smith | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Mobile, AL |
| 70 | Jabarius Oliver | OL | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Louise, MS |
| 71 | Xavier Allen | OL | SR | 6'5" | 299 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 72 | Eddie Alford | OL | FR | 6'4" | 323 | Douglasville, GA |
| 73 | Phillip Gray | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Nashville, TN |
| 74 | Richard Thigpen | OL | FR | 6'6" | 349 | Nashville, TN |
| 75 | Skyler Grant | OL | SR | 6'2" | 308 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 76 | Parker Mitchell | OL | SR | 6'3" | 299 | Alabaster, AL |
| 77 | Brian Grant | OL | SR | 6'7" | 318 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 78 | Riley McGehee | OL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | New Hope, AL |
| 79 | Chance Holloman | OL | SR | 6'4" | 286 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Joseph Head Jr. | DL | JR | 6'4" | 228 | Lexington, MS |
| 10 | Justin Wallace | DL | SR | 6'2" | 250 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 11 | Jaden McKinney | DL | SR | 6'4" | 285 | Collierville, TN |
| 13 | Stone Chaney | DL | SO | 6'4" | 254 | Novi, MI |
| 14 | J'Mond Tapp | DL | SR | 6'3" | 256 | Donaldsonville, LA |
| 15 | Elijah Kinsler | DL | SO | 6'3" | 256 | Oradell, NJ |
| 18 | Xavier Miles | DL | JR | 6'3" | 315 | Orange, NJ |
| 35 | DeAngelo Thompson | DL | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Miami, FL |
| 44 | Evan Harvey | DL | FR | 6'2" | 253 | Tyrone, GA |
| 45 | Gary Green | DL | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Fairburn, GA |
| 54 | Amir Leonard-Jean Charles | DL | FR | 6'4" | 298 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 56 | KJ Miles | DL | SR | 6'4" | 289 | Orange, NJ |
| 90 | Taylor Burton | DL | SR | 6'2" | 283 | Memphis, TN |
| 92 | JaQuentin Madison | DL | FR | 6'2" | 271 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 93 | Jabari Ishmael | DL | SR | 6'5" | 264 | Miami, FL |
| 94 | J'mari Monette | DL | SR | 6'3" | 274 | Alexandria, LA |
| 95 | Eric Thomas | DL | FR | 6'5" | 360 | Miami, FL |
| 97 | Jacari Gatling | DL | FR | 6'4" | 291 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 99 | Devan Lowe | DL | SR | 6'2" | 367 | Kansas City, MO |
| 9 | Mike Montgomery | LB | SR | 6'3" | 247 | Seattle, WA |
| 16 | Jah'Keevi Garnett | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Charlotte, NC |
| 22 | Zach Ruffin | LB | SO | 6'4" | 199 | Philadelphia, MS |
| 23 | Jayden Parrish | LB | SO | 6'1" | 237 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 25 | JJ Clayton | LB | SO | 6'2" | 210 | Perry, FL |
| 33 | Donovan Mathena | LB | SR | 6'0" | 235 | Collierville, TN |
| 34 | Kadan Spratling | LB | FR | 6'1" | 240 | Carrollton, GA |
| 37 | Jacory Johnson | LB | SO | 6'0" | 207 | Humble, TX |
| 39 | Desmond Cox | LB | FR | 5'11" | 225 | Red Oak, TX |
| 40 | Trey McDonald | LB | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 41 | Tylon Nash | LB | SR | 6'2" | 231 | Memphis, TN |
| 42 | Christian Thatcher | LB | FR | 6'2" | 207 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 43 | Wolf Walker | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Atlanta, GA |
| 46 | Elijah Fernandez | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Franklin, TN |
| 1 | Ellis Ellis Jr. | CB | SR | 6'0" | 187 | Hendersonville, TN |
| 2 | Chauncey Logan Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Salem, VA |
| 7 | Darius Malcolm Jr. | CB | SO | 5'9" | 181 | Atlanta, GA |
| 8 | Anthony Richard Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 193 | Lafayette, LA |
| 19 | Ethan Wilder | CB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Gordo, AL |
| 26 | Jaylen Lewis | CB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 31 | Johnny Moody | CB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Birmingham, AL |
| 32 | Dilan Williamson | CB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Kenosha, WI |
| 38 | Xavier Thompson | CB | FR | 6'1" | 199 | Cantonment, FL |
| 49 | Josiah Brown | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Pensacola, FL |
| 0 | Ian Foster | S | JR | 5'10" | 181 | Brundidge, AL |
| 3 | Dylan Smith | S | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Little Elm, TX |
| 5 | Ahmere Foster | S | SR | 5'10" | 173 | Miami, FL |
| 6 | Dylan King | S | SR | 6'2" | 188 | Nashville, TN |
| 12 | Beni Mwamba | S | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Elsmere, KY |
| 17 | Chase Pinkston | S | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 21 | Khalil Foster | S | FR | 5'11" | 182 | Brundidge, AL |
| 24 | Nick Burden | S | FR | 6'0" | 189 | Hampton, GA |
| 27 | Jordan Bell | S | SO | 6'2" | 189 | Munford, TN |
| 28 | Charlie Harrell | S | JR | 6'0" | 199 | Bartlett, TN |
| 29 | Tim Sims | S | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Hampton, GA |
| 36 | Jamariez Robinson | S | SO | 5'9" | 167 | Lilburn, GA |
| 33 | Oliver Castaneda | PK | SO | 5'8" | 181 | Hiram, GA |
| 40 | Tarik Ahmetbasic | PK | JR | 6'2" | 204 | Clinton Township, MI |
| 80 | Philippe Laforge | PK | SO | 6'1" | 206 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 30 | Harrison Tuck | P | SR | 6'2" | 236 | Mt. Crawford, SA |
| 32 | Jake Snyder | P | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Cumming, GA |
| 34 | Weston Simmons | LS | JR | 5'10" | 213 | Mason, OH |
| 42 | Ben Majors | LS | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Huntersville, NC |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 3 games in
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at defending the run, and they are 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −38.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.50#4 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.22#30 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.34#127 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.39#121 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#120 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 8 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.29#42
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.28 / 2.60
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 18.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.7%#90
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.7% / 5.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.31#15 | 0.44#29 | 0.33#104 |
| Defense | 0.21#131 | 0.20#85 | 0.37#74 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2864th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2213th
- Offense success rate43%43rd
- Defense success rate allowed44%18th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs48%46th
- Offense success — passing downs31%45th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs54%6th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%54th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.698th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.418th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.291st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.897th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.156th
- Defense line yards allowed3.39th
- Offense highlight yards2.796th
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.18th
- Offense power success0.5318th
- Defense power success allowed0.8814th
- Offense stuff rate0.2220th
- Defense stuff rate0.1312th
Third down
- Third down conversion32%15th
- Third down distance faced7.329th
- Third down conversion allowed36%54th
- Third down distance forced8.281st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0650th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0721st
Drives
- Points per drive2.459th
- Points per drive allowed2.347th
- Average starting field position224th
- Opponent starting field position2672nd
- Available yards gained58%68th
- Available yards allowed57%34th
- Scoring opportunities per drive82%57th
- Scoring opportunities allowed97%13th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.266th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.466th
- Three-and-out rate26%41st
- Three-and-outs forced6%8th
CORE
- CORE offense12.097th
- CORE defense3.131st
- CORE overall8.985th
Roster
- Returning usage3%3rd
- Returning EPA20.78th
- Team talent composite67052nd
- Recruiting class rank72.048th
- Recruiting class points18948th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.424 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-1 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 34 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 40.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 47.0%
- Over expected
- -7.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -1
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Memphis is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Memphis in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 67% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 8-3 | 5-3 | 73% | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 12-2 | 8-1 | 86% | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 8-6 | 5-4 | 57% | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 9.1 | +0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-1 so far, projected to finish 8.6-3.8. Wins the American Athletic in 17%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 55%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 1.5 points since preseason — won 27-21 over UNLV against an expected margin of −6, so +15.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 55% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.27 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 3.3% of seasons, having won their league in 98% of those.
Memphis’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at South Florida6.3
- wk12at Navy6.1
- wk7at Tulane5.2
- wk9vs Army4.7
- wk8vs East Carolina4.4
- wk13vs Temple4.3
Who to root for
Games Memphis is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico1.8
- wk11UNLV over New Mexico1.3
- wk8Washington State over Boise State1.2
- wk5Utah State over Boise State1.1
- wk7Hawai'i over New Mexico1.1
- wk6Fresno State over Boise State1.1
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 5.4-2.61 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 40% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Memphis at South Florida21.8
- wk12Memphis at Navy18.6
- wk7Memphis at Tulane17.3
- wk8East Carolina at Memphis16.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Memphis is 2-1 and needs 4 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 6.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Gasparilla Bowl22%
- Military Bowl15%
- Fenway Bowl12%
- Birmingham Bowl8.9%
- Armed Forces Bowl8.0%
- First Responder Bowl7.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Memphis a player since 2010 — 17 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Memphis's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.