vs Akron · Wk 3Win prob 88%Model -18.7Schedule & Results
MSSTMississippi StateL13-38✗Wk 3vsAKRAkron-18.788%Wk 4@
WASHWashington+4.639%Wk 5vs
MICHMichigan+0.350%Wk 6@
PURPurdue-6.566%Wk 8vs
IOWAIowa-2.757%Wk 9@
IUIndiana+21.48%Wk 10vs
UCLAUCLA-4.461%Wk 11@
PSUPenn State-0.250%Wk 12vs
NUNorthwestern+1.646%Wk 13@
WISWisconsin-5.464%Team Leaders
Drake LindseyPassing543 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Darius TaylorRushing71 yds · 3 TD · 3.5 avg
Javon TracyReceiving12 rec · 149 yds · 0 TD
Maverick BaranowskiTackles15 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Minnesota
All news →Mississippi State's only path is the explosive play
Drake Lindsey produced nine of Minnesota's twelve explosive plays
One Point, One Blocked Kick, And Penn State Survives Minneapolis
Penn State Should Win at Minnesota by Eleven or So — but the Door's Cracked
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Drake Lindsey | QB | JR | 6'5" | 230 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 6 | Max Shikenjanski | QB | SR | 6'2" | 185 | Stillwater, MN |
| 12 | Michael Merdinger | QB | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 14 | Dylan Wittke | QB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Buford, GA |
| 15 | Owen Lansu | QB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 16 | Brady Palmer | QB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | San Diego, CA |
| 1 | Darius Taylor | RB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Detroit, MI |
| 2 | A.J. Turner | RB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Hampton, VA |
| 9 | Xavier Ford | RB | SO | 5'10" | 210 | Leesville, LA |
| 20 | Ryan Estrada | RB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | El Paso, TX |
| 21 | Grant Washington | RB | SO | 5'10" | 205 | Avon, OH |
| 22 | Jaron Thomas | RB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Elkhart, IN |
| 23 | TJ Thomas | RB | JR | 5'8" | 190 | Thomasville, GA |
| 26 | Zeke Bates | RB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Haverford, PA |
| 28 | Niko Castillo | RB | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Schuylkill Haven, PA |
| 3 | Perry Thompson | WR | JR | 6'3" | 220 | Foley, AL |
| 7 | Bradley Martino | WR | SO | 6'3" | 190 | Naples, FL |
| 8 | Jalen Smith | WR | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Mankato, MN |
| 11 | Javon Tracy | WR | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 13 | Noah Jennings | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Columbia, SC |
| 18 | Donielle Hayes | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Pensacola, FL |
| 24 | Braiden Stevens | WR | FR | 5'8" | 170 | Platte City, MO |
| 25 | Zion Steptoe | WR | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Little Elm, TX |
| 81 | Josiah Dozier | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Moody, AL |
| 84 | Hayden Moore | WR | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Gainesville, FL |
| 85 | Rico Blassingame | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Auburn, WA |
| 89 | Quayd Hendryx | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Burlington Township, NJ |
| 4 | Roman Voss | TE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Lakefield, MN |
| 19 | Pierce Walsh | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 44 | George Rohl | TE | FR | 6'6" | 245 | Ellsworth, WI |
| 82 | Julian Johnson | TE | JR | 6'6" | 260 | Aurora, IL |
| 83 | Sam Peters | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Maple Grove, MN |
| 86 | Gabe Weaver | TE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | St. Louis, MO |
| 87 | Kaden Helms | TE | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Bellevue, NE |
| 88 | Jacob Simpson | TE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Johnston, IA |
| 50 | Nathan Roy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Mukwonago, WI |
| 51 | Daniel Shipp | OL | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Eastvale, CA |
| 55 | Jerome Williams | OL | SR | 6'4" | 325 | Osseo, MN |
| 56 | Brett Carroll | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Olathe, KS |
| 57 | Aaron Thomas | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 58 | Jaden Ball | OL | JR | 6'5" | 310 | Carroll, OH |
| 59 | Tony Nelson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 325 | Tracy, MN |
| 60 | Kaveon Lee | OL | SO | 6'5" | 320 | Chicago, IL |
| 65 | Greg Johnson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 325 | Prior Lake, MN |
| 66 | Beckett Schreiber | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Madison, WI |
| 68 | Bennett Warren | OL | JR | 6'7" | 300 | Houston, TX |
| 69 | Gavin Meier | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Janesville, WI |
| 71 | Lucas Tielsch | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Copley, OH |
| 75 | Mark Handy | OL | SO | 6'7" | 320 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 77 | Nick Spence | OL | SO | 6'6" | 300 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 78 | Ashton Beers | OL | SR | 6'6" | 320 | Slinger, WI |
| 79 | Andrew Trout | OL | FR | 6'7" | 300 | Cold Spring, MN |
| 0 | Anthony Smith | DL | SR | 6'6" | 280 | Shippensburg, PA |
| 1 | Jaxon Howard | DL | SR | 6'4" | 260 | Crystal, MN |
| 3 | TJ Bush Jr. | DL | SR | 6'3" | 265 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 11 | Karter Menz | DL | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Horace, ND |
| 33 | Rhett Hlavacka | DL | SO | 6'5" | 260 | Fond Du Lac, WI |
| 41 | Anthony Charles | DL | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 45 | Sam Macy | DL | JR | 6'5" | 250 | Chanhassen, MN |
| 47 | Enoch Atewogbola | DL | SO | 6'4" | 255 | Avon, IN |
| 48 | Aaden Aytch | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Lafayette, IN |
| 55 | Jaylin Hicks | DL | JR | 6'3" | 270 | Harlem, NY |
| 56 | Jay'Quan Stubbs | DL | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Cleveland, OH |
| 70 | Naquan Crowder | DL | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Aliquippa, PA |
| 88 | Josiah Anyansi | DL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Atlanta, GA |
| 90 | Xion Chapman | DL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Allentown, PA |
| 91 | Howie Johnson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Forest Lake, MN |
| 92 | Sid Kaba | DL | SR | 6'2" | 305 | Columbus, OH |
| 93 | Riley Sunram | DL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Kindred, ND |
| 94 | Mo Saine | DL | JR | 6'4" | 275 | Eden Prairie, MN |
| 95 | Colin Hansen | DL | SO | 6'7" | 265 | Byron, MN |
| 96 | Abu Tarawallie | DL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | New Hope, MN |
| 97 | Jeremiah Benson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Detroit, MI |
| 98 | Adam Kissayi | DL | JR | 6'8" | 255 | Palm Bay, FL |
| 99 | Theorin Randle | DL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Houston, TX |
| 2 | Emmanuel Karmo | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 6 | Maverick Baranowski | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Ponce Inlet, FL |
| 16 | Hudson Dunn | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Peoria, AZ |
| 19 | Joey Gerlach | LB | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Woodbury, MN |
| 29 | Andrew Marshall | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Carroll, OH |
| 32 | Angel Luciano | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Steelton, PA |
| 35 | Nate Cleveland | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Hoffman Estates, IL |
| 44 | Ethan Stendel | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Caledonia, MN |
| 46 | Mason Carrier | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Detroit Lakes, MN |
| 49 | Matt Kingsbury | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Chicago, IL |
| 4 | Zack Harden | DB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Covington, GA |
| 5 | Aydan West | DB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Gaithersburg, MD |
| 7 | Aidan Gousby | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Lehigh Acres, FL |
| 8 | Mike Gerald | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 9 | Garrison Monroe | DB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Shakopee, MN |
| 13 | Zahir Rainer | DB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Richmond, VA |
| 14 | Kerry Brown | DB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Naples, FL |
| 15 | Samuel Madu | DB | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Bronx, NY |
| 17 | John Nestor | DB | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Chicago, IL |
| 18 | Rhyland Kelly | DB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Winnipeg, MB |
| 20 | Parker Knutson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Sartell, MN |
| 21 | Naiim Parrish | DB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Freehold, NJ |
| 22 | Mekhai Smith | DB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Lower Merion, PA |
| 23 | Lamont Hamilton | DB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Racine, WI |
| 24 | Chance Payne | DB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Jefferson, GA |
| 25 | Justin Hopkins | DB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Nashville, TN |
| 26 | Elisha West | DB | JR | 5'10" | 195 | Germantown, MD |
| 27 | Simon Seidl | DB | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Hugo, MN |
| 28 | Trason Richardson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 31 | Jordan Lampkins | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Germantown, MD |
| 36 | Tavian White | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Waukee, IA |
| 36 | Daniel Jackson | PK | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Alexandria, MN |
| 92 | Beckham Sunderland | PK | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Newport, KY |
| 37 | Zachary Robbins | P | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Santaquin, UT |
| 42 | Tom Weston | P | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Perth |
| 52 | Alan Soukup | LS | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 53 | Jakob Lutz | LS | SO | 6'0" | 205 | Peachtree City, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 116th in the push up front, and they are 110th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets#116projected
- Offenserunning it#110projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#105projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.12#132
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.45 / 0.61
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 29.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 18.3%#46
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 16.5% / 1.7%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.22#30 | -0.47#138 | 0.85#26 |
| Defense | 0.13#117 | 0.44#122 | 0.80#121 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3465th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.3899th
- Offense success rate60%92nd
- Defense success rate allowed11%99th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs64%91st
- Offense success — passing downs43%74th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs10%99th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs12%95th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.9811th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.74th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.7810th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.272nd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.518th
- Defense line yards allowed1.393rd
- Offense highlight yards0.9550th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2673rd
- Offense power success0.6738th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.2320th
- Defense stuff rate0.4499th
Third down
- Third down conversion67%96th
- Third down distance faced4.793rd
- Third down conversion allowed23%79th
- Third down distance forced9.693rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.4693rd
- Net success rate — second half0.5299th
Roster
- Returning usage68%81st
- Returning EPA11455th
- Team talent composite72971st
- Recruiting class rank28.080th
- Recruiting class points22780th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.161 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Minnesota is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Minnesota in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 3-6 | 46% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 5-4 | 69% | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 9-4 | 6-3 | 69% | 10.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 43% | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 10.2 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 3-6 | 54% | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 4.9 | +0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.0. Top-four bye in 0.6%. Wins the Big Ten in 0.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 0.3 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 62% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Minnesota’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at Indiana17.2
- wk11at Penn State13.7
- wk4at Washington10.4
- wk8vs Iowa9.1
- wk5vs Michigan7.6
- wk10vs UCLA6.9
Who to root for
Games Minnesota is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State0.9
- wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech0.9
- wk6Kentucky over LSU0.9
- wk13Syracuse over Notre Dame0.8
- wk13TCU over Texas Tech0.7
- wk5Northwestern over Penn State0.7
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 3.6-5.412 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Minnesota at Indiana3.0
- wk11Minnesota at Penn State2.2
- wk4Minnesota at Washington1.5
- wk8Iowa at Minnesota1.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Minnesota is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl6.8%
- LA Bowl6.6%
- Rate Bowl6.4%
- Pinstripe Bowl5.9%
- Las Vegas Bowl5.3%
- Music City Bowl4.7%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Minnesota a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Minnesota's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.