vs Buffalo · Wk 3Win prob 95%Model -25.4Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Rocco BechtPassing539 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
Carson HansenRushing132 yds · 0 TD · 4.4 avg
Koby HowardReceiving9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD
Tony RojasTackles14 tackles · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
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Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rocco Becht | QB | SR | 6'1" | 208 | Wesley Chapel, FL |
| 7 | Alex Manske | QB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Algona, IA |
| 10 | Connor Barry | QB | SR | 6'1" | 211 | Vienna, VA |
| 12 | Kase Evans | QB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Lexington, TX |
| 14 | Peyton Falzone | QB | FR | 6'5" | 216 | Nazareth, PA |
| 19 | Jack Lambert | QB | JR | 6'3" | 202 | Hampstead, NC |
| 1 | James Peoples | RB | JR | 5'10" | 214 | San Antonio, TX |
| 21 | Carson Hansen | RB | SR | 6'2" | 216 | Lakeville, MN |
| 25 | Quinton Martin Jr. | RB | SO | 6'1" | 212 | Belle Vernon, PA |
| 26 | Cam Wallace | RB | JR | 5'9" | 206 | Mount Vernon, GA |
| 29 | D'Antae Sheffey | RB | FR | 5'11" | 201 | State College, PA |
| 36 | Amar'e Glover | RB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Middletown, DE |
| 37 | Jeremy Washington | RB | FR | — | — | Washington, DC |
| 0 | Chase Sowell | WR | SR | 6'3" | 203 | Humble, TX |
| 2 | Zay Robinson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 186 | Des Moines, IA |
| 4 | Brett Eskildsen | WR | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Frisco, TX |
| 6 | Koby Howard | WR | SO | 5'11" | 203 | Pensacola, FL |
| 7 | Peter Gonzalez | WR | SO | 6'2" | 211 | Mars, PA |
| 8 | Karon Brookins | WR | FR | 6'5" | 205 | Pennsauken, NJ |
| 11 | Lyrick Samuel | WR | FR | 6'4" | 183 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 13 | Hank Lustig | WR | FR | 5'9" | 170 | State College, PA |
| 15 | Keith Jones Jr. | WR | SO | 6'4" | 197 | New Orleans, LA |
| 19 | Amarion Jackson | WR | FR | 6'2" | 192 | Omaha, NE |
| 31 | Logan Cunningham | WR | SR | 5'8" | 183 | Belle Vernon, PA |
| 81 | Ben Whitver | WR | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Powhatan, VA |
| 82 | Ethan Black | WR | JR | 5'9" | 178 | Davidsville, PA |
| 18 | Benjamin Brahmer | TE | SR | 6'7" | 250 | Pierce, NE |
| 80 | Cooper Alexander | TE | SO | 6'4" | 241 | Washington, OK |
| 83 | Brian Kortovich | TE | FR | 6'4" | 241 | Willoughby, OH |
| 84 | Gabe Burkle | TE | SR | 6'6" | 247 | Cedar Rapids, IA |
| 87 | Andrew Rappleyea | TE | JR | 6'4" | 242 | Millbrook, NY |
| 89 | Finn Furmanek | TE | JR | 6'3" | 251 | State College, PA |
| 50 | Cooper Cousins | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Erie, PA |
| 51 | Brock Riker | OL | SO | 6'4" | 291 | Brock, TX |
| 52 | Dominic Rulli | OL | SR | 6'3" | 298 | Burlington, KY |
| 54 | Vaea Ikakoula | OL | FR | 6'3" | 326 | Laie, HI |
| 55 | Chimdy Onoh | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Baltimore, MD |
| 56 | Mason Bandhauer | OL | FR | 6'6" | 297 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 61 | Liam Horan | OL | SO | 6'3" | 292 | West Chester, PA |
| 65 | Jim Fitzgerald | OL | SR | 6'7" | 337 | Severna Park, MD |
| 66 | Will Tompkins | OL | FR | 6'5" | 311 | Cedar Falls, IA |
| 67 | Henry Boehme | OL | JR | 6'5" | 285 | Birmingham, AL |
| 68 | Anthony Donkoh | OL | JR | 6'5" | 334 | Aldie, VA |
| 70 | Trevor Buhr | OL | JR | 6'4" | 318 | Washington, MO |
| 71 | Garrett Sexton | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Hartland, WI |
| 72 | Tyshon Huff | OL | JR | 6'4" | 292 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 74 | Kuol Kuol II | OL | FR | 6'6" | 291 | Centerville, OH |
| 75 | Pete Eglitis | OL | FR | 6'7" | 295 | Columbus, OH |
| 76 | Hunter Albright | OL | FR | 6'5" | 326 | Hollidaysburg, PA |
| 77 | Owen Aliciene | OL | FR | 6'7" | 303 | Cheshire, CT |
| 78 | Malachi Goodman | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Bloomfield, NJ |
| 79 | Donnie Harbour | OL | SO | 6'3" | 333 | Milwaukee, WI |
| 1 | Ikenna Ezeogu | DE | SR | 6'5" | 273 | Blue Springs, MO |
| 11 | LaVar Arrington II | DE | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Annapolis, MD |
| 18 | Max Granville | DE | SO | 6'3" | 252 | Sugar Land, TX |
| 19 | Yvan Kemajou | DE | SO | 6'3" | 252 | Burtonsville, MD |
| 33 | Alexander McPherson | DE | SO | 6'6" | 254 | Stuart, FL |
| 42 | Mason Robinson | DE | JR | 6'3" | 255 | Randallstown, MD |
| 43 | Dayshaun Burnett | DE | FR | 6'3" | 226 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 47 | Aidan Probst | DE | SO | 6'2" | 246 | Erie, PA |
| 89 | Jackson Ford | DE | FR | 6'5" | 264 | Phoenixville, PA |
| 93 | Bobby Mears | DE | JR | 6'4" | 257 | West Chester, PA |
| 88 | Elijah Reeder | DL | FR | 6'6" | 210 | Bayville, NJ |
| 39 | Ty Blanding | DT | JR | 6'1" | 301 | Bronx, NY |
| 56 | Alijah Carnell | DT | SO | 6'5" | 299 | Henderson, NV |
| 73 | Caleb Brewer | DT | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Reading, PA |
| 90 | Liam Andrews | DT | SO | 6'4" | 276 | Brookline, MA |
| 91 | Armstrong Nnodim | DT | SO | 6'2" | 310 | Mesquite, TX |
| 92 | Siale Taupaki | DT | SR | 6'2" | 326 | East Oakland, CA |
| 94 | De'Andre Cook | DT | SO | 6'4" | 298 | Washington, DC |
| 98 | Dallas Vakalahi | DT | JR | 6'2" | 326 | West Valley, UT |
| 99 | Keanu Williams | DT | SR | 6'5" | 317 | Clovis, CA |
| 8 | Kooper Ebel | LB | SR | 6'4" | 233 | Hartley, IA |
| 9 | Cael Brezina | LB | JR | 6'3" | 233 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 10 | Caleb Bacon | LB | SR | 6'4" | 242 | Lake Mills, IA |
| 13 | Tony Rojas | LB | JR | 6'2" | 236 | Fairfax, VA |
| 25 | Alex Tatsch | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Latrobe, PA |
| 26 | Cam Smith | LB | FR | 6'0" | 222 | Salem, NJ |
| 32 | John Klosterman | LB | SR | 5'11" | 223 | Iowa City, IA |
| 34 | Chris Fileppo | LB | SO | 6'4" | 219 | Doylestown, PA |
| 40 | Keian Kaiser | LB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Sidney, NE |
| 40 | Jake Lukac | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | State College, PA |
| 45 | Josh Banks | LB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Hollidaysburg, PA |
| 46 | Evan Wolff | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Moscow, PA |
| 2 | Audavion Collins | CB | SR | 5'11" | 183 | Covington, GA |
| 5 | Daryus Dixson | CB | SO | 6'0" | 184 | Perris, CA |
| 7 | Zion Tracy | CB | SR | 5'11" | 184 | Hempstead, NY |
| 12 | Xxavier Thomas | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Canonsburg, PA |
| 15 | Joshua Johnson | CB | FR | 6'2" | 189 | Ironton, OH |
| 16 | Donte Nastasi | CB | JR | 5'10" | 169 | State College, PA |
| 17 | Josiah Zayas | CB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Piscataway, NJ |
| 20 | Tyrell Chatman | CB | FR | 6'2" | 196 | Lincoln, NE |
| 23 | Jahmir Joseph | CB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Nyack, NY |
| 29 | Hunter Sowell | CB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Humble, TX |
| 35 | Tyler Armstead | CB | SO | 6'1" | 177 | Canonsburg, PA |
| 37 | Max Heffner | CB | FR | 5'11" | 176 | Birdsboro, PA |
| 3 | Jamison Patton | S | SR | 6'2" | 206 | Des Moines, IA |
| 4 | Jeremiah Cooper | S | SR | 6'0" | 188 | El Paso, TX |
| 21 | Vaboue Toure | S | SO | 6'1" | 209 | Pleasantville, NJ |
| 24 | Ibn McDaniels | S | SO | 6'3" | 202 | Elizabeth, NJ |
| 27 | Omarion Davis | S | SO | 5'11" | 198 | Charlotte, NC |
| 28 | Bryson Williams | S | FR | 6'4" | 188 | Omaha, NE |
| 30 | Christian Askew | S | FR | 6'4" | 199 | Kathleen, GA |
| 31 | Marcus Neal Jr. | S | JR | 6'1" | 216 | Kansas City, MO |
| 41 | Jake LaVerde | S | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Kirtland, OH |
| 94 | Ryan Barker | PK | JR | 6'2" | 191 | Landenberg, PA |
| 95 | Cristiano Rosa | PK | SR | 5'11" | 205 | Shelton, CT |
| 98 | Matthew Parker | PK | FR | 6'0" | 224 | York, PA |
| 38 | Nathan Tiyce | P | SO | 6'5" | 232 | Gerringong, NSW |
| 96 | Lucas Tenbrock | P | FR | 6'6" | 210 | St. Charles, IL |
| 35 | Blaise Sokach-Minnick | LS | SR | 6'3" | 216 | West Pittston, PA |
| 92 | Andrew Dufault | LS | SO | 6'1" | 249 | Westwood, MA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Penn State throws it: Matt Campbell's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 17th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Penn State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#17projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.30#127
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.96 / 0.08
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 8.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 17.7%#53
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.5% / 6.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.18#43 | 0.49#22 | 1.01#15 |
| Defense | -0.09#52 | 0.04#50 | 0.30#64 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4277th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1786th
- Offense success rate51%69th
- Defense success rate allowed29%77th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs56%72nd
- Offense success — passing downs33%52nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs34%77th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs20%73rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.365th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.8996th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.168th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.483rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.150th
- Defense line yards allowed1.098th
- Offense highlight yards0.1414th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
- Offense power success0.8673rd
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.1463rd
- Defense stuff rate0.4296th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced5.973rd
- Third down conversion allowed20%85th
- Third down distance forced8.372nd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1353rd
- Net success rate — second half0.2582nd
Drives
- Points per drive4.185th
- Points per drive allowed0.0098th
- Average starting field position3278th
- Opponent starting field position2390th
- Available yards gained68%82nd
- Available yards allowed18%97th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed58%89th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.181st
- Points allowed per opportunity0.0099th
- Three-and-out rate18%73rd
- Three-and-outs forced58%98th
Roster
- Returning usage4%4th
- Returning EPA21.510th
- Team talent composite77482nd
- Recruiting class rank65.053rd
- Recruiting class points19453rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.953 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 50.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 48.0%
- Over expected
- +2.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- +17
- Fourth down vs the model
- -75
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Penn State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Penn State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 3-6 | 54% | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| 2024 | 13-3 | 8-2 | 81% | 12.7 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 44% | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 9-4 | 6-3 | 69% | 10.6 | -1.6 |
| 2017 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 10.5 | +0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 9.9-2.4. Top-four bye in 12%. Wins the Big Ten in 12%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 10.5 points since preseason — won 45-0 over Marshall against an expected margin of +27, so +18.2 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 52% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Penn State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6vs USC41.1
- wk10at Washington39.3
- wk7at Michigan38.2
- wk2at Temple37.0
- wk5at Northwestern36.0
- wk13at Maryland35.9
Who to root for
Games Penn State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Navy over Notre Dame3.0
- wk7Rutgers over Maryland2.7
- wk3Rutgers over USC2.7
- wk9Rutgers over Michigan2.5
- wk10Marshall over Georgia Southern2.4
- wk2Utah State over Washington2.3
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 6.9-2.14 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6USC at Penn State13.7
- wk10Penn State at Washington13.4
- wk7Penn State at Michigan12.7
- wk13Penn State at Maryland11.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Penn State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Citrus Bowl13%
- ReliaQuest Bowl10%
- Music City Bowl8.4%
- Las Vegas Bowl6.8%
- Pinstripe Bowl4.5%
- Rate Bowl3.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Penn State a player since 2010 — 28 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Penn State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.