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East Carolina

East Carolina Pirates

American Athletic·0-2·
Compare
Elo
1477#69
SP+
-8.1#102
FPI
-3.2
AP
NR
Next@ Old Dominion · Wk 3Win prob 43%Model +2.8
Talent #83 (623.8)Recruiting class #9414% production returning

Roster · 119 players

FR 24SO 18JR 31SR 46
#PlayerPosClHtWt
7Cole HodgeQBSO6'0"198
9Emory WilliamsQBSR6'5"225
11Daulton PhalinesQBFR6'5"210
12Mitch GriffisQBSR6'0"195
13Trey BurkeQBFR6'3"205
3Ashton GrayRBJR6'0"208
4TJ Engleman Jr.RBJR5'9"189
5DeJuan LacyRBJR5'8"203
21Michael AllenRBSR5'11"206
22Michael BeattyRBJR5'6"162
23Meliq McgowanRBFR6'0"190
26DaMari GanttRBJR5'10"197
0Kyler PearsonWRSR5'8"168
1Ray Ray Joseph Jr.WRSR5'11"186
2Tyler JohnsonWRSR6'0"186
7Landon SidesWRSR5'11"190
10Brock SpaldingWRSR5'11"193
11Jeremiah MelvinWRJR6'4"205
14Dillon LorickWRJR6'0"200
15Ja'Keith HamiltonWRSR6'2"206
17Johnny WilliamsWRSO5'9"180
19Jaquaize PettawayWRSR5'10"194
24Jason DickersonWRJR5'10"189
80Ty JohnsonWRJR6'0"180
81Mason ScottWRJR6'0"181
84Connor HodgeWRSO6'1"183
87Trenton CloudWRJR5'11"193
88Dawson QuartermanWRFR6'2"200
6Kanen HamlettTESR6'4"235
8Ismael Smith FloresTESR6'5"255
45Mason BrownTESR6'4"261
82Gage RealeTESR6'3"238
85Stephen CollierTESO6'2"242
86Kaleb MorrowTESO6'5"259
89Jacob HollandTEFR6'5"245
50Joshua BattleOLFR6'5"285
52Zach CaulderOLSR6'1"251
54Niko PaicOLSR6'2"290
55Ethan KramerOLSR6'4"300
56Bryson EsserOLJR6'8"295
57Ian HemilrightOLJR6'4"280
58Brandon BestOLSR6'4"313
59Xavier MasseyOLFR6'3"290
61Brooks CulpOLFR6'4"310
63Alex LuebkeOLFR6'4"283
65Preston BroadwayOLFR6'3"270
66Marleo NeolienOLSR6'7"310
67Cayman ReynoldsOLSO6'4"234
68Tre HardisonOLSR6'4"317
69Kendall WaltonOLSO6'5"313
71Bryce WeaverOLSR6'4"317
72Christian HarrisOLSR6'7"305
73Karson JonesOLSR6'4"282
74Jeremiah WilliamsOLJR6'4"322
75Hayes CreelOLSR6'7"320
77Ja'Vaughn HargettOLFR6'5"260
78Peyton ReederOLSO6'4"300
79Justin GarrardOLFR6'4"325
0Jasiyah RobinsonDLSR6'3"265
5Kieran DavisDLSR6'2"250
9Kendrick DuJourDLSR6'5"223
33Terande SpencerDLFR6'3"235
40Dylon WorthenDLSO6'2"243
44Preston CarrDLSR6'3"295
50Evan PowellDLSO6'4"247
51Zyon RatchfordDLFR6'3"215
55Dominick MoodyDLSO6'2"271
88Rion RoseboroughDLSR6'2"295
90Josiah DwyerDLSO6'2"281
91Miles ParkerDLJR6'4"255
94Javon WilliamsDLJR6'2"303
95Ethan WilsonDLFR6'5"240
97Jacoby MartinDLJR6'2"264
98Torin BrazellDLJR6'2"278
99Kelton SmithDLFR6'4"310
1Jackson BarkerLBSR6'2"227
10Crews LawLBJR6'1"225
11DJ Johnson Jr.LBSR6'0"224
20Cade LawLBSR6'1"225
32LJ PorterLBFR6'0"215
35Landon LewisLBSO6'3"205
41Jayden OldenLBJR6'1"230
42Julien DavisLBSR6'2"239
43Jordan MilesLBSO6'1"200
49Chad FairchildLBFR6'0"235
53Matt PayesLBFR6'3"210
59Reagan PrintyLBJR6'1"217
2Jaylen BowdenDBSR6'1"180
3Zyeir GambleDBSR5'10"195
4Kevon Merrell Jr.DBJR6'1"188
6DeMarius HinesDBJR5'11"194
7Ashton Levells-MitchellDBSR6'1"170
8Kamaurri McKinleyDBSR6'2"186
12Myles PollardDBSR6'2"190
13Ayden DuncansonDBSR6'0"194
14Derrion HorsleyDBSO6'2"196
15Christian PetersonDBJR5'10"185
17Rae'mon MosbyDBJR6'0"190
19Jurnee LattimoreDBJR5'10"167
21Jonathan AkinsDBSR5'11"199
22Angelo RossDBSO6'1"170
23Josh BentonDBSR5'11"200
23Tavius Horne Jr.DBSO5'11"166
24Durante SpeerDBSO6'0"195
25Callaway WilliamsDBFR6'0"195
26Alex MoyeDBJR6'2"190
27Miles GaddyDBJR6'1"185
28David Coleman Jr.DBFR5'11"165
31Djimon MclendonDBFR5'11"175
34Adam ColeDBSR6'0"185
37Amare MackDBFR5'11"175
38Riley RobinsonDBFR6'1"225
43Noah PerezPKSR5'7"161
93Everett ScottPKJR5'10"180
95Andrew ConradPKSR5'10"184
48Tomas O'HalloranPJR6'3"200
83Elliot HuetherPSR6'3"211
53Blake ShirleyLSSR6'0"205
97Cole WalkerLSJR6'4"236

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
17.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
37.5
scoring defense
Differential
-20.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
289.5#124
Yards / play
5.1#115
Passing yards / game
195.0#97
Rushing yards / game
94.5#124
First downs / game
13.5#130
3rd down %
9.1%#138
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
22:31#136
Defense
Yards allowed / game
441.0#124
Yards / play allowed
5.8#105
Pass yards allowed / game
263.5#121
Rush yards allowed / game
177.5#116
3rd down % allowed
44.8%#109
Sacks
3#79
Tackles for loss
15#23
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-2#108
Takeaways
1#107
Giveaways
3#77
Penalties / game
7.5#90
Penalty yards / game
66.5#105

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

East Carolina is in year 3 under Blake Harrell. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 112th at hitting chunk plays.

East Carolina has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensegetting stopped at the line
    #3
    projected
  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #20
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #112
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
4.5 – 6.5
projected final record (now 0–2)
Exp. wins left
4.5
of 9 games
Bowl odds
23%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
75%
vs Rice
Toughest
22%
vs Army

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

0123456789
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 4-7 (26%)Bowl eligible 23% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRTyler Johnson, Nathaniel Joseph +3
+13.5 EPA
QBMitch Griffis
+11.0 EPA
RBMichael Allen, TJ Engleman +1
+4.2 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBMitch Griffis
~$630K
EPA +11.00.175/play63 snaps
RBAshton Gray
~$167K
EPA +2.60.107/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1735th#90
Def0.2611th#123
Explosiveness
Off1.2545th#77
Def1.2847th#73
Field position
Off74.888th#18
Def69.875th#35
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.2555th#63
Def4.5312th#121
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 3
Margin -2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.1925th#104
Off · rush
0.1347th#74

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1345th#76
Def0.1723rd#106
Passing
Off0.1925th#104
Def0.4018th#113

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.37#124
2nd-level / open-field
1.11 / 1.16
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 26.7%
Havoc — total (def)
12.4%#120
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.1% / 1.3%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.26
Def-0.00
Pass downs
Off-0.05
Def0.71

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.09#700.36#45-0.07#131
Defense-0.16#360.37#1140.93#131

Elo Trajectory

@AlabamaFinal
Elo rating 1562 → 1465-97 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.0515th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.2312th
  • Offense success rate36%12th
  • Defense success rate allowed45%12th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs41%15th
  • Offense success — passing downs18%6th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs45%42nd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs45%3rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.469th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.344th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.175th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs3.099th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards1.91st
  • Defense line yards allowed2.745th
  • Offense highlight yards0.7631st
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.5361st
  • Offense power success0.408th
  • Defense power success allowed0.4282nd
  • Offense stuff rate0.275th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2361st

Third down

  • Third down conversion10%1st
  • Third down distance faced9.23rd
  • Third down conversion allowed47%17th
  • Third down distance forced8.071st

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0136th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.1110th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.121st
  • Points per drive allowed3.027th
  • Average starting field position2525th
  • Opponent starting field position3134th
  • Available yards gained35%22nd
  • Available yards allowed56%38th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive71%30th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed91%18th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.029th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.233rd
  • Three-and-out rate42%13th
  • Three-and-outs forced17%27th

CORE

  • CORE offense-0.2644th
  • CORE defense3.624th
  • CORE overall-3.929th

Roster

  • Returning usage14%13th
  • Returning EPA50.629th
  • Team talent composite62440th
  • Recruiting class rank94.032nd
  • Recruiting class points17932nd

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Balanced offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.174#90 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.190#104
Rush EPA/play
+0.135#76
Explosiveness
1.246#77
Pts/opportunity
4.25#63
Success rate
42.9%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.055 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.257#123 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
12.4%#120
Front-7 havoc
11.1%
DB havoc
1.3%
Big play rate allowed
1.276#73
Success rate allowed
45.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

17.0 PPG offense, 37.5 allowed — -20.5 margin/game
Points per game
17.0
Points allowed/game
37.5
Scoring margin/game
-20.5
Turnover margin
-2won 1 · lost 3
Production returning
14%
Talent rank (247)
#83

0-2 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE35thEXPLOSIVENESS45thFINISHING55thFIELD POS88thDEFENSE11thHAVOC13th50th100th
Offense
35th
Explosiveness
45th
Finishing
55th
Field Pos
88th
Defense
11th
Havoc
13th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-1.4
#76
Offense
-0.3
#69
Defense
+1.1
#82
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 24 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.132.96
Starting field positionown 25.2own 30.7
Available yards34.9%55.6%
Scoring opportunities70.8%91.3%
Points per opportunity2.003.24
Three-and-out rate41.7%17.4%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
51.8%
Expected, given the spots
55.4%
Over expected
-3.6
Fourth down vs peers
+5
Fourth down vs the model
-17
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. East Carolina is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to East Carolina in 2026

by EPA/play distance
AkronSP+ -21.4
Off EPA/play +0.190Def EPA/play +0.228Elo 929
Match
98%
ArkansasSP+ +3.3
Off EPA/play +0.138Def EPA/play +0.253Elo 1547
Match
98%
Missouri StateSP+ -24.3
Off EPA/play +0.193Def EPA/play +0.201Elo 1284
Match
97%
RutgersSP+ -3.6
Off EPA/play +0.124Def EPA/play +0.234Elo 1372
Match
97%
Oregon StateSP+ -6.8
Off EPA/play +0.232Def EPA/play +0.254Elo 1260
Match
96%
Texas StateSP+ -7.8
Off EPA/play +0.185Def EPA/play +0.326Elo 1441
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +1.6, #64 of 1282016: -11.2, #98 of 1282017: -27.2, #125 of 1302018: -12.6, #104 of 1302019: -18.0, #118 of 1302020: -6.8, #87 of 1242021: +2.0, #64 of 1302022: +4.5, #52 of 1312023: -20.0, #125 of 1332024: -0.5, #69 of 1342025: +7.8, #46 of 1362026: -1.4, #76 of 138
20152026
Now -1.4 · #76 of 138Best +7.8 in 2025Worst -27.2 in 2017

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-20-0
0%
0.3-0.3
20259-46-2
69%
8.7+0.3
20248-55-3
62%
7.0+1.0
20232-101-7
17%
3.5-1.5
20228-54-4
62%
8.0+0.0
20217-55-3
58%
5.7+1.3
20203-63-5
33%
3.9-0.9
20194-81-7
33%
3.5+0.5
20183-91-7
25%
4.7-1.7
20173-92-6
25%
3.1-0.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-2 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.2. Wins the American Athletic in 4.9%.

If they finish with…

11%
2 losses
0.1%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 11%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 2.4 points since preseason — lost 10-48 to Alabama against an expected margin of −22, so −15.7 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 11% where the average American Athletic team is 7.1%.
  • The American Athletic takes 0.27 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

East Carolina’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk8at Memphis0.3
  • wk12at Army0.3
  • wk10vs South Florida0.2
  • wk3at Old Dominion0.2
  • wk9vs Temple0.2
  • wk13vs Florida Atlantic0.2

Who to root for

Games East Carolina is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk7Kent State over South Florida0.2
  • wk13Georgia over Georgia Tech0.1
  • wk7Rutgers over Maryland0.1
  • wk5Middle Tennessee over Kansas0.1
  • wk5Rice over UTSA0.1
  • wk8Washington State over Boise State0.1
The full playoff picture →

American Athletic

0-0 in league play, projected 4.4-3.67 of 14 by title odds
4.9%
Wins the American Athletic
12%
Reaches the title game

The American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 40% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8East Carolina at Memphis11.4
  • wk10South Florida at East Carolina8.8
  • wk12East Carolina at Army8.4
  • wk9Temple at East Carolina7.0

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →

If not the playoff, then

59%
Bowl eligible
43%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
57%
Season over in November

East Carolina is 0-2 and needs 6 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 16% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Armed Forces Bowl8.6%
  • Birmingham Bowl6.3%
  • Fenway Bowl6.0%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl5.0%
  • Military Bowl3.2%
  • Boca Raton Bowl3.2%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent East Carolina a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of East Carolina's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Cardinal GibbonsFL30
Fork Union Military AcademyVA20
Highland SpringsVA20
MillbrookNC20
NorthwesternFL20
Lake DallasTX10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.