@ Louisiana · Wk 3Win prob 49%Model +0.3Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Ryder BurtonPassing219 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
Roderick Robinson IIRushing59 yds · 0 TD · 4.2 avg
C.J. SmithReceiving2 rec · 57 yds · 0 TD
Muaaz ByardTackles7 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 106 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ryder Burton | QB | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Springville, UT |
| 11 | Adrian Posse | QB | SO | 6'4" | 215 | Miami, FL |
| 12 | Vanden Dugger | QB | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Dana Point, CA |
| 16 | Nate Rogers | QB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Wetumpka, AL |
| 18 | Cam Jennings | QB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Birmingham, AL |
| 2 | Roderick Robinson II | RB | JR | 6'1" | 235 | San Diego, CA |
| 3 | Bam McReynolds | RB | SR | 5'7" | 190 | Mobile, AL |
| 7 | Ja'Vin Simpkins | RB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 10 | Marquise Collins | RB | JR | 5'9" | 210 | Bryan, TX |
| 20 | Rashad Robinson | RB | FR | 5'9" | 210 | San Diego, CA |
| 21 | Hudson Higgins | RB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Florence, AL |
| 22 | Drew Patterson | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Nashville, TN |
| 26 | Jayson Moll | RB | FR | 5'7" | 175 | Bixby, OK |
| 28 | JR Mosley | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Hoover, AL |
| 30 | Amari Brundidge | RB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Birmingham, AL |
| 0 | Ty Mims | WR | SR | 5'9" | 185 | Bay Minette, AL |
| 1 | CJ Smith | WR | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Apopka, FL |
| 4 | EJ Reid | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 6 | KJ Daniels | WR | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Franklinton, LA |
| 8 | Kaleb Brown | WR | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | AJ Johnson | WR | SR | 6'3" | 205 | New Orleans, LA |
| 12 | Jaylen Elder | WR | SO | 5'11" | 160 | Madison, GA |
| 13 | CD Gill | WR | FR | 5'7" | 160 | Saraland, AL |
| 14 | Jailen Holmes | WR | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Huntsville, AL |
| 15 | Jayden Skelton | WR | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Thomaston, GA |
| 17 | Brogan Mcnab | WR | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Melbourne, FL |
| 80 | Malik Muhammad | WR | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
| 81 | Bradley Wainwright | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Helena, AL |
| 83 | Levi Brayton | WR | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Littleton, CO |
| 84 | Lamar White | WR | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Suwanee, GA |
| 19 | Gabriel Cline | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Miami, FL |
| 40 | Brayden Johnson | TE | SO | 6'2" | 265 | Elba, AL |
| 44 | Scott Isacks | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Metairie, LA |
| 85 | Antonio Ferguson | TE | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Apopka, FL |
| 86 | Vili Haapsalo | TE | FR | 6'6" | 230 | Helsinki |
| 87 | Sean Persson | TE | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Spanish Fork, UT |
| 88 | Braden Teague | TE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Montgomery, AL |
| 51 | Payton Kirkland | OL | JR | 6'6" | 315 | Orlando, FL |
| 52 | Hudson Reed | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Hoover, AL |
| 55 | Barrett Maddox | OL | JR | 6'6" | 325 | Clinton, TN |
| 57 | Aidan Platt | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Auburn, AL |
| 59 | Jaden Ligon | OL | SO | 6'5" | 340 | LaGrange, GA |
| 64 | Cooper Young | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Downingtown, PA |
| 66 | Donovan Lawrence | OL | SO | 6'5" | 350 | Dacula, GA |
| 67 | Wes Wiggins | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Smithville, MS |
| 68 | Adam Lepkowski | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Hoover, AL |
| 69 | Kade Martin | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Trussville, AL |
| 70 | Amos Talalele | OL | SO | 6'4" | 380 | Santa Clara, CA |
| 71 | Kyrik Mason | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Columbia, MD |
| 75 | Calib Perez | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Pearland, TX |
| 77 | Keyon Cox | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Phenix City, AL |
| 78 | Nelson Ramirez | OL | SR | 6'6" | 335 | Newnan, GA |
| 79 | Samuel Riddy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 330 | North Charleston, SC |
| 74 | Barry Walker | OT | SO | 6'6" | 325 | Cordele, GA |
| 56 | Myles Cook | DE | SO | 6'2" | 285 | Madison, AL |
| 58 | J'Quan Mason | DE | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Mccalla, AL |
| 59 | Chris Burge | DE | SO | 6'3" | 250 | Leeds, AL |
| 9 | Noah Nelson | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Atlanta, GA |
| 15 | Elijah Hall | DL | SR | 6'3" | 255 | Shelby, NC |
| 17 | Tylin Jackson | DL | JR | 6'4" | 255 | Federal Way, WA |
| 29 | Cam Cunningham | DL | SR | 6'1" | 325 | Portage, MI |
| 52 | Sterling Sanders | DL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Blythewood, SC |
| 90 | Chris Spencer | DL | SR | 6'5" | 290 | Burgaw, NC |
| 96 | Gavin Nelson | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Birmingham, AL |
| 99 | Raymond Macias | DL | SO | 6'1" | 310 | La Puente, CA |
| 8 | Nigel Tate | DT | SR | 6'3" | 330 | Washington, DC |
| 54 | Kyle Mosley | DT | SO | 6'1" | 305 | Atlanta, GA |
| 3 | Ike Esonwune | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Manor, TX |
| 4 | Marlin Dean | LB | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Elberton, GA |
| 7 | Blanche Gold | LB | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Springdale, MD |
| 14 | Mantrez Walker | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Buford, GA |
| 19 | Malachi Character | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Thomaston, GA |
| 26 | Gage Messick | LB | SR | 6'3" | 230 | Luverne, AL |
| 31 | Rhett Cofer | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Dora, AL |
| 32 | Colby Archie | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Jackson, MS |
| 33 | Braden Sullivan | LB | JR | 6'2" | 245 | New Smyrna Beach, FL |
| 35 | Muaaz Byard | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | York, PA |
| 43 | Braxtyn Davies | LB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Newnan, GA |
| 48 | Phillip Davison Jr. | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Birmingham, AL |
| 49 | Jacoby Bridges | LB | SO | 6'1" | 235 | Birmingham, AL |
| 5 | Delvon Gulley | CB | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Saraland, AL |
| 16 | Isaiah Crozier | CB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Pickerington, OH |
| 18 | Julius Lane Jr. | CB | FR | 5'10" | 160 | Montgomery, AL |
| 0 | Jo Pierce | DB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Montgomery, AL |
| 1 | Darrell Sweeting | DB | JR | 6'0" | 185 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 2 | Guylijah Theodule | DB | JR | 6'2" | 175 | Miami, FL |
| 6 | Que Billingsley | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Phenix City, AL |
| 10 | Kris Wokomah | DB | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Arlington, TX |
| 11 | Anta'Veon McKenzie | DB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Stockton, CA |
| 12 | Elijah Pratt | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Arlington, TX |
| 13 | Jeremiah Jordan | DB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Cordova, TN |
| 21 | Draden Fullbright | DB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 22 | Courage Ugo | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Richmond, TX |
| 23 | Mykale Hrabowski | DB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Adamsville, AL |
| 24 | Diezel Wilkinson | DB | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Spokane, WA |
| 25 | Jaylen Thompson | DB | SO | 6'2" | 210 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 27 | Jordin Price | DB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Orange Park, FL |
| 28 | Daimir Hicks | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Springfield, GA |
| 36 | Chimenum Ajinwo | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Pelham, AL |
| 37 | Love Kirby | S | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Anniston, AL |
| 35 | Owen Simpson | PK | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Birmingham, AL |
| 39 | Jonah Delange | PK | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Mobile, AL |
| 20 | Badger Hargett | P | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Lafayette, LA |
| 30 | Carson Tinsley | P | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Huntsville, AL |
| 46 | Evan Bishop | LS | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Hoover, AL |
| 47 | Noah Medlen | LS | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Harvest, AL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 134th at holding the line of scrimmage.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.55#34
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.02 / 0.53
- Power / stuff (off)
- 83.3% / 7.5%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 4.5%#138
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 4.5% / 0.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.16#120 | 0.03#99 | 0.94#23 |
| Defense | 0.23#123 | 1.01#137 | 0.21#44 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1436th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.534th
- Offense success rate43%43rd
- Defense success rate allowed57%2nd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs44%33rd
- Offense success — passing downs40%69th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs54%13th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs67%1st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.255th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.426th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9539th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.949th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.358th
- Defense line yards allowed3.036th
- Offense highlight yards0.4628th
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.110th
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.6067th
- Offense stuff rate0.1369th
- Defense stuff rate0.2363rd
Third down
- Third down conversion53%67th
- Third down distance faced6.654th
- Third down conversion allowed50%21st
- Third down distance forced3.01st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1024th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1022nd
Roster
- Returning usage86%94th
- Returning EPA24590th
- Team talent composite60634th
- Recruiting class rank1354th
- Recruiting class points1354th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.360 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 40.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 58.7%
- Over expected
- -18.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- -25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. UAB is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to UAB in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2017–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| 2021 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 9.5 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 6-3 | 4-1 | 67% | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 2019 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 8.1 | -0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.7-7.4.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 23-42 to Illinois against an expected margin of −30, so +11.3 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 3.1% where the average American Athletic team is 5.4%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 78% of those.
UAB’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at Memphis0.1
- wk9at South Florida0.1
- wk4vs Navy0.1
- wk12vs UTSA0.1
- wk11at Temple0.1
- wk7vs East Carolina0.1
Who to root for
Games UAB is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Kent State over South Florida0.1
- wk7Auburn over Georgia0.1
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State0.1
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech0.1
- wk2UCF over Pittsburgh0.0
- wk9South Carolina over Oklahoma0.0
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 2.5-5.513 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6UAB at Memphis2.3
- wk9UAB at South Florida1.7
- wk4Navy at UAB1.5
- wk12UTSA at UAB1.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
UAB is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 12% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Armed Forces Bowl4.2%
- Birmingham Bowl2.8%
- Fenway Bowl2.4%
- Xbox Bowl2.2%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.1%
- Military Bowl1.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent UAB a player since 2010 — 9 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of UAB's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.