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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Big 12·1-1·
Elo
1212#128
SP+
1.1#69
FPI
-1.6
AP
NR
Nextvs Murray State · Wk 3
Talent #65 (672.7)Recruiting class #690% production returning

Roster · 115 players

FR 32SO 19JR 26SR 38
#PlayerPosClHtWt
8Broderick VehrsQBFR5'11"205
9Grant JordanQBSR6'2"217
12Luke TepasQBFR6'3"207
17Drew MestemakerQBSO6'3"215
6Tre Page IIIRBSO5'8"184
20KD JonesRBFR5'11"186
22William MasonRBSR5'11"226
24Caleb HawkinsRBSO6'0"219
25Ayo AdeyiRBSR5'7"194
26Dennis Moody IIIRBJR5'10"178
36Javen HallRBFR6'0"214
0Justin BowickWRSR6'5"209
1Miles ColemanWRJR5'6"158
2Chris BarnesWRSO5'7"169
3Terrence LewisWRSO5'11"170
5Israel PolkWRJR6'2"177
10Wyatt YoungWRJR6'0"199
11Rodney Harris IIWRSR6'1"207
14Jabarie ThorntonWRFR5'11"185
15Kam PowellWRFR6'2"202
19Dayvon StandardWRFR6'4"185
29Malachi JacksonWRJR6'1"186
83Ty WattsWRFR5'10"173
84Matrail LopezWRFR5'11"184
87Blake HogshooterWRFR6'4"190
89Quincy SheltonWRFR5'11"169
23Oscar HammondTESR6'3"243
44Carson KolbTESO6'4"235
45Morgan McPhaulTESR6'2"265
81Donovan GreenTESR6'3"238
82Luke LoganTESO6'4"243
88Bodie BoydstunTEJR6'5"239
50Kole SeatonOLFR6'5"299
54Johnny Dickson IIIOLSR6'2"317
56Tyler MercerOLSO6'4"300
57Simona FuailetoloOLFR6'6"315
58Isaiah BowmanOLFR6'3"296
62Jamison MejiaOLJR6'3"302
63Caleb HacklemanOLSO6'6"298
66Louie CanepaOLSR6'3"299
67Braydon NelsonOLJR6'4"327
68Joseph HansonOLSR6'4"302
70Shaun TorgesonOLSO6'4"302
71Miguel ChavezOLFR6'3"314
72ORyan MosleyOLFR6'3"315
73JaQwon EvansOLFR6'5"295
74Eli HolbrookOLFR6'3"290
75Jakobe SandersOLJR6'2"327
76Desmond MagiyaOLJR6'4"333
77Ashton LepoOLSR6'7"320
78Kai HolecOLSO6'8"327
79Jacob SextonOLSR6'6"328
0Malik CharlesDESR6'3"284
10James WilliamsDESR6'5"256
11Keviyan HuddlestonDEJR6'4"269
19DJ Jackson Jr.DESR6'4"243
31Billy Walton IIIDESO6'3"253
38Carl'veon YoungDEFR6'4"240
44Rashod BradleyDEJR6'3"279
87DeSean BrownDESR6'2"266
91Landon BlandDEFR6'3"231
95Jaleel JohnsonDESR6'4"270
96Joey QuinnDEFR6'6"255
5Saadiq ClementsDTJR6'4"310
15Fatafehi Vailea IIDTSR6'1"307
45Enai WhiteDTSR6'5"300
59Xavier MasonDTSR5'11"261
88Landon DeanDTSR6'5"290
90Savion BarthelemyDTFR6'3"286
92Jerry LawsonDTSR6'1"312
93Dominic MaconDTFR6'3"309
94Braylon RigsbyDTJR6'3"283
97Nygel FarseeDTFR6'1"314
98Luke WebbDTSO6'3"311
99Iman OatesDTSR6'3"317
2Isaiah ChisomLBJR6'0"234
3Tate RomneyLBSR6'1"223
16Dallas Winner-JohnsonLBJR6'5"225
20Taurean DavisLBJR6'1"231
30Trip WhiteLBSR6'3"234
32Ethan WesloskiLBSR6'1"234
33Jack PuckettLBSR6'0"234
40Cooper MailandLBJR6'0"232
50Gunnar WilsonLBSO6'2"217
52Beau WendelLBFR5'11"197
53Christian JonesLBSR6'2"240
4Mo HornCBSR5'11"183
8Kollin LewisCBJR5'10"188
9LaDainian FieldsCBSO6'1"176
13Trudell BerryCBSR6'1"196
14Kobi ForemanCBSO5'10"175
26Maliek BracyCBFR6'0"171
28Marrel Davis IIICBFR6'2"196
39Jeremiah PiperCBSR5'10"175
41Byron StubbsCBFR5'11"165
1Evan JacksonSSR5'11"188
6Christian BodnarSJR6'0"188
7Quinton HammondsSJR6'1"206
12Cameron EppsSSR6'2"207
18Mose Phillips IIISSR6'2"196
22Jeremy Cook Jr.SSO6'2"205
23Braeden PresleySFR6'0"190
25Markeith WilliamsSSR6'2"175
27Vincent HolmesSJR6'0"192
29Cooper LaiSJR6'0"199
36Bobby Deal Jr.SJR6'1"190
46Hunter TruslerSFR6'1"201
47Harrison DempseySSR5'11"205
16Sam KeltnerPKSO5'10"185
41Gabe PendyalaPKFR5'10"166
49Joseph KimPKJR5'9"196
37Lachie PozzobonPSO6'4"182
85Nate OstPSR6'2"198
42Caden YatesLSJR6'1"223
48Nolan AkinsLSFR6'1"198

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
24.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
27.5
scoring defense
Differential
-3.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
461.0#36
Yards / play
5.5#104
Passing yards / game
279.0#35
Rushing yards / game
182.0#58
First downs / game
26.0#20
3rd down %
30.3%#124
4th down %
42.9%#89
Time of possession
33:60#23
Defense
Yards allowed / game
321.0#67
Yards / play allowed
5.5#92
Pass yards allowed / game
209.0#70
Rush yards allowed / game
112.0#64
3rd down % allowed
24.0%#18
Sacks
4#60
Tackles for loss
8#104
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-4#133
Takeaways
2#76
Giveaways
6#133
Penalties / game
4.0#17
Penalty yards / game
44.5#43

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 3 games in

pass-leaning

Oklahoma State throws it: Eric Morris's offenses have been pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 137th at throwing it.

On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+15.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is +8.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Oklahoma State has played 3 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    +0.06
    #138 of 138
  • Offensethrowing it
    +0.02
    #137 of 138
  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    2.57
    #137 of 138

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
3.97.1
projected final record (now 11)
Exp. wins left
2.9
of 9 games
Bowl odds
11%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
50%
vs Colorado
Toughest
2%
vs Texas Tech

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 4-7 (30%)Bowl eligible 11% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRJustin Bowick, Wyatt Young +3
+25.7 EPA
QBDrew Mestemaker
+2.5 EPA
TEMorgan McPhaul, Carson Kolb
-1.9 EPA
RBAyo Adeyi, Tre Page III +1
-4.5 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
EPA +2.50.024/play106 snaps
EPA -2.2-0.040/play55 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.025th#131
Def0.1728th#100
Explosiveness
Off1.0914th#119
Def1.3330th#97
Field position
Off72.776th#34
Def67.786th#20
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off2.579th#125
Def3.6932nd#94
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 6
Margin -4

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
Defense
Off · pass
0.027th#128
Off · rush
0.0628th#99

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0628th#100
Def0.0253rd#66
Passing
Off0.028th#127
Def0.3127th#101

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.88#96
2nd-level / open-field
1.03 / 1.28
Power / stuff (off)
53.3% / 18.4%
Havoc — total (def)
13.4%#115
Havoc — front 7 / DB
7.6% / 5.9%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.04
Def0.23
Pass downs
Off0.02
Def0.08

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.08#1130.25#64-0.18#135
Defense-0.05#680.35#1120.31#67

Elo Trajectory

@TulsaFinal
Elo rating 12401274+34 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.025th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1722nd
  • Offense success rate40%30th
  • Defense success rate allowed36%56th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs44%24th
  • Offense success — passing downs31%43rd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs48%27th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs17%93rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.116th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.421st
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9125th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.617th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.932nd
  • Defense line yards allowed3.029th
  • Offense highlight yards1.258th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.4572nd
  • Offense power success0.5418th
  • Defense power success allowed1.05th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1939th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1520th

Third down

  • Third down conversion31%10th
  • Third down distance faced6.368th
  • Third down conversion allowed24%90th
  • Third down distance forced7.662nd

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.2080th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0818th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.740th
  • Points per drive allowed2.058th
  • Average starting field position2740th
  • Opponent starting field position3514th
  • Available yards gained55%65th
  • Available yards allowed43%69th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive76%40th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed83%41st
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.646th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.465th
  • Three-and-out rate16%76th
  • Three-and-outs forced25%56th

CORE

  • CORE offense-7.68th
  • CORE defense-0.5455th
  • CORE overall-7.016th

Roster

  • Returning usage0%1st
  • Returning EPA0.03rd
  • Team talent composite67353rd
  • Recruiting class rank69.050th
  • Recruiting class points19050th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

Offensive DNA

Balanced offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.018#131 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.016#127
Rush EPA/play
+0.056#100
Explosiveness
1.087#119
Pts/opportunity
2.57#125
Success rate
40.0%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.040 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.169#100 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
13.4%#115
Front-7 havoc
7.6%
DB havoc
5.9%
Big play rate allowed
1.333#97
Success rate allowed
36.1%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

24.5 PPG offense, 27.5 allowed — -3.0 margin/game
Points per game
24.5
Points allowed/game
27.5
Scoring margin/game
-3.0
Turnover margin
-4won 2 · lost 6
Production returning
0%
Talent rank (247)
#65

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE5thEXPLOSIVENESS14thFINISHING9thFIELD POS76thDEFENSE28thHAVOC17th50th100th
Offense
5th
Explosiveness
14th
Finishing
9th
Field Pos
76th
Defense
28th
Havoc
17th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-8.3
#104
Offense
-10.6
#125
Defense
-2.3
#61
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 25 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.722.00
Starting field positionown 27.4own 35.2
Available yards54.9%42.8%
Scoring opportunities76.0%83.3%
Points per opportunity2.632.40
Three-and-out rate16.0%25.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
56.8%
Expected, given the spots
47.7%
Over expected
+9.1
Fourth down vs peers
+8
Fourth down vs the model
-27
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Oklahoma State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Oklahoma State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Central MichiganSP+ -20.0
Off EPA/play -0.048Def EPA/play +0.131Elo 1259
Match
97%
Washington StateSP+ -3.7
Off EPA/play -0.060Def EPA/play +0.147Elo 1601
Match
97%
UNLVSP+ +2.3
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.186Elo 1589
Match
96%
Georgia TechSP+ +1.7
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.141Elo 1553
Match
96%
Hawai'iSP+ -7.0
Off EPA/play +0.039Def EPA/play +0.202Elo 1426
Match
96%
LibertySP+ -7.2
Off EPA/play -0.027Def EPA/play +0.094Elo 1697
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 20152026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +6.8, #47 of 1282016: +11.3, #27 of 1282017: +24.9, #9 of 1302018: +5.0, #43 of 1302019: +7.6, #36 of 1302020: +11.5, #23 of 1242021: +23.8, #5 of 1302022: -0.3, #69 of 1312023: +4.5, #47 of 1332024: -7.5, #91 of 1342025: -22.9, #130 of 1362026: -8.3, #104 of 138
20152026
Now -8.3 · #104 of 138Best +24.9 in 2017Worst -22.9 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
0.2+0.8
20251-110-9
8%
1.4-0.4
20243-90-9
25%
3.3-0.3
202310-47-3
71%
5.8+4.2
20227-64-5
54%
5.5+1.5
202112-28-2
86%
11.1+0.9
20208-36-3
73%
6.7+1.3
20198-55-4
62%
6.2+1.8
20187-63-6
54%
8.5-1.5
201710-36-3
77%
11.1-1.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

3.9%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-1 so far, projected to finish 6.7-5.3. Wins the Big 12 in 2.8%.

If they finish with…

100%
1 loss
68%
2 losses
5.7%
3 losses
0.2%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

down 3.3 points since preseasonlost 10-24 to Tulsa against an expected margin of +11, so 24.6 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 68% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.

Oklahoma State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11vs Texas Tech10.3
  • wk10at Kansas State8.8
  • wk7at Houston7.1
  • wk12at Arizona State6.0
  • wk9at Iowa State5.8
  • wk6vs UCF5.2

Who to root for

Games Oklahoma State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.4
  • wk12Baylor over Texas Tech1.0
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.9
  • wk7Arizona State over Texas Tech0.8
  • wk11Arizona over Utah0.8
  • wk4Illinois over Ohio State0.7
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 4.7-4.37 of 16 by title odds
2.8%
Wins the Big 12
7.3%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Texas Tech at Oklahoma State7.5
  • wk10Oklahoma State at Kansas State6.0
  • wk7Oklahoma State at Houston4.8
  • wk12Oklahoma State at Arizona State4.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

73%
Bowl eligible
67%
Placed in a bowl
3.9%
In the playoff
29%
Season over in November

Oklahoma State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl9.3%
  • Liberty Bowl8.9%
  • Rate Bowl8.8%
  • Independence Bowl8.8%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl8.1%
  • Texas Bowl7.0%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Oklahoma State a player since 2010 — 19 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Oklahoma State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
DeSotoTX50
Booker T. WashingtonFL32
Cibolo SteeleTX30
Evangel Christian AcademyLA21
Frisco Lone StarTX20
John TylerTX20
SachseTX11
ParkwayLA10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.