Skip to content
Northwestern

Northwestern Wildcats

Big Ten·1-0·
Compare
Elo
1549#54
SP+
7.8#40
FPI
2.5
AP
NR
Nextvs Colorado · Wk 3Win prob 84%Model -15.8
Talent #60 (688.3)Recruiting class #5289% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Northwestern

All news →

Aidan Chiles produced eight of Northwestern's ten explosive plays

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 124 players

FR 43SO 30JR 24SR 27
#PlayerPosClHtWt
0Aidan ChilesQBSR6'4"225
2Ryan BoeQBSO6'3"215
4Nicco MarchiolQBJR6'2"220
9Johnny O'BrienQBFR6'3"200
11Aidan GrayQBJR6'3"215
13Gavin FrakesQBSR6'4"235
15Sean WintonQBSO6'2"200
5Caleb KomolafeRBJR5'11"210
6Joseph Himon IIRBSR5'9"195
7Mar'Kel PorterRBSO5'11"215
12Marcus RomainRBFR6'0"215
22Daniel AndersonRBFR5'11"210
27Gavin SawchukRBSR6'0"205
36Sean Morris IIRBFR5'10"210
3Frank Covey IVWRJR6'1"200
8Hayden Eligon IIWRJR6'4"210
10Ricky AhumaraezeWRJR6'4"210
11Keaton ReinkeWRFR6'3"210
14Dube EnongeneWRFR6'1"200
16Brennan SaxeWRFR6'3"195
17Griffin WildeWRSR6'2"200
18Camp MageeWRJR6'5"210
19Drew WagnerWRJR5'10"195
20Chase FarrellWRSO5'10"180
80Braden BlueittWRFR6'0"205
82Jaden McDuffieWRFR6'3"190
87Carson GroveWRSO5'11"195
89Cam RussellWRSO6'3"215
41Robby PreckelTESO6'3"230
43Noah LaPorteTEFR6'6"235
48Tyler KielmeyerTEFR6'6"240
81Chris PetrucciTESR6'4"245
83Blake Van BurenTESR6'4"245
84Luke DehnickeTESO6'6"240
85Tom McGlincheyTEFR6'6"240
86Alex HonigTESR6'6"275
50Owen ForsOLFR6'4"305
52Angelo De SensiOLFR6'5"290
60Hayden FlavinOLFR6'7"300
61David AnchondoOLJR6'7"315
62Ezomo OratokhaiOLSO6'4"310
64Anthony BirsaOLJR6'5"305
65Jackson CarselloOLSR6'4"300
66Owen JakubczakOLFR6'4"285
67Jace BorcherdingOLSO6'4"300
68Quinn WicklowOLFR6'7"295
69Patrick SchallerOLSO6'6"295
70Leighton BurbachOLFR6'8"280
71Dennis RahouskiOLSO6'5"300
72Jack FuchsOLFR6'8"300
73Deuce McGuireOLSR6'5"310
74Grant SeagrenOLJR6'7"320
75Arkel AnugwomOLJR6'7"330
76Michael O'ConnellOLFR6'7"315
77Idrys CottonOLSO6'4"305
78Trey BoydOLFR6'5"300
79Jacob MillerOLFR6'7"270
5Dominic KirksDLSO6'5"275
15Brendan FlakesDLSR6'4"295
24Jamaal JohnsonDLSR6'2"250
44Callen CampbellDLSO6'4"260
47Michael KilbaneDLSR6'5"280
52Calvin LorekDLFR6'4"280
53Tanner JumppDLFR6'3"280
54Tyler GantDLJR6'3"300
55Dylan RobertsDLJR6'3"300
56Tre HoskinsDLFR6'5"310
57Nick CostaDLFR6'4"250
58Ronald Derrick IIIDLFR6'5"260
63Nick ZalewskiDLFR6'6"235
88Migo JacksonDLSR6'0"305
90Jack TrautmannDLSO6'3"250
91Caden O'RourkeDLFR6'5"250
92Mason GreenDLJR6'2"250
93Glory Stephen-WangbojeDLJR6'1"300
94Gage LaDereDLFR6'2"270
95Mason MayneDLFR6'3"290
96Jonah HayesDLFR6'6"260
97Braxton StrongDLSO6'4"255
98Landon LauterDLSO6'5"290
99Troy RegovichDLSO6'5"290
2Kobie McKinzieLBSR6'2"235
32Matthew SmithLBSO6'2"225
33Braydon BrusLBSR6'1"230
34Payton RothLBJR6'4"230
37Max MohringLBFR6'3"220
38Josh VeldmanLBFR6'5"220
39Parker MaiersLBFR6'1"230
40Jason Reynolds IILBSR6'2"230
42Nigel GloverLBJR6'3"225
45Jack Sadowsky VLBSR6'2"230
46Lincoln CreagerLBFR6'3"220
49Amare JordanLBFR6'1"210
50Qayvier JohnsonLBSO6'3"225
51Miles CrutchleyLBSR6'0"220
0Alijah JonesDBSO6'0"195
3Brenden DeasfernandesDBSR6'2"200
4Montae PateDBSR6'2"175
6Robert FitzgeraldDBSR6'0"210
7Ore AdeyiDBSR5'11"200
9Braden TurnerDBSR5'10"200
11Seth ValeriDBFR6'0"190
12Gabe Davis-RayDBFR6'3"200
13Josh FussellDBJR6'0"190
16J.J. LewisDBJR6'0"205
17Jaden VaughnDBFR6'0"195
21Damon WaltersDBJR6'1"195
22Terrion Curry-HicksDBSO5'11"185
23Cole ShiversDBJR5'10"180
25Marquet Dorsey Jr.DBSO6'2"195
26Jalen LewisDBJR5'9"200
27Jack OyolaDBSR5'11"200
28Timi OkeDBSO6'1"190
29Jon Jon Stevens Jr.DBSO6'0"200
31Tito Williams Jr.DBSO6'2"190
35Sean MartinDBSO6'1"190
36Nate DawsonDBFR6'2"200
90Jackson KleatherPKSR5'10"190
94Henry HelmsPKJR6'1"180
98Noah SurPKFR6'0"185
92Nikola DugandzicPFR6'5"215
95Marko DubakPSR6'2"200
59Jack FlorentineLSSO6'0"210
60Evan BoutorwickLSSO6'3"240

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
34.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
18.0
scoring defense
Differential
+16.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
497.0#26
Yards / play
9.0#4
Passing yards / game
273.0#40
Rushing yards / game
224.0#31
First downs / game
19.0#93
3rd down %
41.7%#69
4th down %
——
Time of possession
25:52#125
Defense
Yards allowed / game
432.0#122
Yards / play allowed
4.9#60
Pass yards allowed / game
285.0#129
Rush yards allowed / game
147.0#98
3rd down % allowed
40.0%#89
Sacks
2#105
Tackles for loss
3#136
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#42
Takeaways
1#107
Giveaways
0#1
Penalties / game
9.0#123
Penalty yards / game
61.0#89

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Northwestern is in year 4 under David Braun, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 15th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 111th at stuffing runs at the line.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Northwestern has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected strengths

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #15
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #114
    projected
  • Defensegetting stopped at the line
    #111
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 11 to play
7.5 – 4.5
projected final record (now 1–0)
Exp. wins left
6.5
of 11 games
Bowl odds
94%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
99%
vs Ball State
Toughest
10%
vs Indiana

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 11 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

123456789101112
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (30%)Bowl eligible 94% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
RBGavin Sawchuk, Joseph Himon II +1
+16.7 EPA
QBAidan Chiles
+15.0 EPA
WRRicky Ahumaraeze, Hayden Eligon Ii +2
+7.6 EPA
TEAlex Honig, Luke Dehnicke
+3.2 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAidan Chiles
~$775K
EPA +15.00.468/play32 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.4893rd#10
Def0.1345th#76
Explosiveness
Off1.4989th#16
Def1.0684th#23
Field position
Off73.580th#28
Def67.984th#23
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.5064th#50
Def2.7172nd#40
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 0
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.4769th#43
Off · rush
0.5296th#7

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.5296th#7
Def0.1040th#83
Passing
Off0.4769th#43
Def0.1466th#47

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.95#10
2nd-level / open-field
1.75 / 3.14
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 10.7%
Havoc — total (def)
18.9%#42
Havoc — front 7 / DB
3.3% / 15.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.53
Def0.10
Pass downs
Off0.39
Def0.20

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.77#3-0.28#1350.83#30
Defense0.08#103-0.02#410.21#44

Elo Trajectory

South Dakota StateFinal
Elo rating 1549 → 1549+0 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.4881st
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1338th
  • Offense success rate51%67th
  • Defense success rate allowed42%31st

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs61%82nd
  • Offense success — passing downs32%45th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs47%37th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs31%42nd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.585th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.174th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.496th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.839th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards4.087th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.315th
  • Offense highlight yards3.193rd
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.1380th
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7843rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1178th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1320th

Third down

  • Third down conversion42%45th
  • Third down distance faced7.524th
  • Third down conversion allowed40%40th
  • Third down distance forced5.57th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0339th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1564th

Roster

  • Returning usage95%98th
  • Returning EPA19876th
  • Team talent composite68857th
  • Recruiting class rank52.063rd
  • Recruiting class points20563rd

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Run-first attack — top 8 nationally by EPA/play
EPA/play
+0.480#10 · elite
Pass EPA/play
+0.467#43
Rush EPA/play
+0.524#7
Explosiveness
1.485#16
Pts/opportunity
4.50#50
Success rate
50.9%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.057 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.128#76 · average
Havoc rate (total)
18.9%#42
Front-7 havoc
3.3%
DB havoc
15.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.058#23
Success rate allowed
42.2%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

34.0 PPG offense, 18.0 allowed — +16.0 margin/game
Points per game
34.0
Points allowed/game
18.0
Scoring margin/game
+16.0
Turnover margin
+1won 1 · lost 0
Production returning
89%
Talent rank (247)
#60

1-0 record through 1 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE93thEXPLOSIVENESS89thFINISHING64thFIELD POS80thDEFENSE45thHAVOC70th50th100th
Offense
93th
Explosiveness
89th
Finishing
64th
Field Pos
80th
Defense
45th
Havoc
70th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+4.1
#56
Offense
+3.3
#43
Defense
-0.8
#67
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Northwestern is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Northwestern in 2026

by EPA/play distance
CincinnatiSP+ +5.9
Off EPA/play +0.449Def EPA/play +0.123Elo 1516
Match
98%
Wake ForestSP+ +1.6
Off EPA/play +0.443Def EPA/play +0.163Elo 1516
Match
97%
Colorado StateSP+ -7.5
Off EPA/play +0.429Def EPA/play +0.088Elo 1336
Match
96%
Georgia StateSP+ -22.7
Off EPA/play +0.431Def EPA/play +0.063Elo 1241
Match
95%
ArmySP+ +2.2
Off EPA/play +0.424Def EPA/play +0.188Elo 1527
Match
95%
UtahSP+ +13.0
Off EPA/play +0.557Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1817
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +2.2, #62 of 1282016: +5.0, #46 of 1282017: +5.2, #51 of 1302018: -3.6, #87 of 1302019: -5.2, #82 of 1302020: +8.8, #34 of 1242021: -16.8, #108 of 1302022: -9.4, #98 of 1312023: -3.1, #78 of 1332024: -11.9, #108 of 1342025: -1.8, #67 of 1362026: +4.1, #56 of 138
20152026
Now +4.1 · #56 of 138Best +8.8 in 2020Worst -16.8 in 2021

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
0.9+0.1
20257-64-5
54%
5.9+1.1
20244-82-7
33%
4.1-0.1
20238-55-4
62%
4.9+3.1
20221-111-8
8%
3.5-2.5
20213-91-8
25%
3.4-0.4
20207-26-2
78%
6.1+0.9
20193-91-8
25%
4.7-1.7
20189-58-2
64%
8.3+0.7
201710-37-2
77%
8.5+1.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

2.4%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 5.7-6.4.

If they finish with…

100%
1 loss
89%
2 losses
9.1%
3 losses
0.0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

up 0.3 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 89% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
  • The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.

Northwestern’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at Ohio State16.0
  • wk9at Oregon13.2
  • wk4at Indiana13.0
  • wk5vs Penn State7.5
  • wk10vs Iowa6.1
  • wk12at Minnesota4.6

Who to root for

Games Northwestern is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon0.7
  • wk4Tulsa over Arkansas0.6
  • wk6UCLA over Oregon0.6
  • wk11Sacramento State over Central Michigan0.6
  • wk11Hawai'i over North Dakota State0.6
  • wk10Missouri over Texas0.5
The full playoff picture →

Big Ten

0-0 in league play, projected 3.1-5.914 of 18 by title odds
0.3%
Wins the Big Ten
0.8%
Reaches the title game

The Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Northwestern at Ohio State2.7
  • wk9Northwestern at Oregon1.9
  • wk4Northwestern at Indiana1.8

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →

If not the playoff, then

52%
Bowl eligible
48%
Placed in a bowl
2.4%
In the playoff
50%
Season over in November

Northwestern is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats. In 0.7% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.

  • GameAbove Sports Bowl7.2%
  • LA Bowl6.8%
  • Rate Bowl6.5%
  • Pinstripe Bowl5.6%
  • Las Vegas Bowl4.8%
  • Music City Bowl3.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Northwestern a player since 2010 — 19 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Northwestern's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
BolingbrookIL31
Bergen CatholicNJ30
St. IgnatiusOH30
Wheaton Warrenville SouthIL21
Cy-FairTX20
Lake TravisTX20
Mansfield LegacyTX20
McGill ToolenAL20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.