@ Kansas State · Wk 3Win prob 17%Model +14.9Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Kadin SemonzaPassing352 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Jaylin LucasRushing217 yds · 1 TD · 15.5 avg
Destyn HillReceiving9 rec · 158 yds · 1 TD
Dickson AguTackles23 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Tulane's best matchup belongs to a roster that left
Roster · 119 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kadin Semonza | QB | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 4 | Jay Beamon | QB | FR | 6'4" | 212 | Cleveland, MS |
| 7 | Cade Scott | QB | FR | 6'5" | 216 | Brandenburg, KY |
| 9 | Zeon Chriss-Gremillion | QB | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 11 | Trace Johnson | QB | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Laguna Niguel, CA |
| 14 | Dagan Bruno | QB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | New Orleans, LA |
| 23 | Holt Teichman | QB | FR | 6'2" | 173 | Houston, TX |
| 0 | Maurice Turner | RB | SR | 5'10" | 196 | Nicholls, GA |
| 6 | Johnnie Daniels | RB | SR | 5'10" | 209 | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 12 | Jaylin Lucas | RB | SR | 5'9" | 174 | Houma, LA |
| 20 | Gabe Mocek | RB | FR | 6'0" | 221 | Lafayette, LA |
| 21 | DJ Dugar | RB | FR | 6'1" | 212 | Leander, TX |
| 24 | Jake Randle | RB | FR | 5'10" | 193 | New Orleans, LA |
| 25 | Jamauri McClure | RB | SO | 5'10" | 212 | Goshen, AL |
| 32 | Jordan West | RB | JR | 5'8" | 192 | New Orleans, LA |
| 1 | Zycarl Lewis Jr. | WR | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Venice, FL |
| 2 | Destyn Hill | WR | JR | 6'1" | 191 | Algiers, LA |
| 5 | Marquez Stevenson | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Shreveport, LA |
| 5 | Anthony Brown-Stephens | WR | SR | 5'10" | 178 | Springfield, OH |
| 8 | Bredell Richardson | WR | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Tampa, FL |
| 10 | Kellen Tasby | WR | SO | 6'6" | 229 | Plano, TX |
| 15 | Antwaun Parham | WR | FR | 6'4" | 214 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 16 | Garrett Mmahat | WR | SR | 6'0" | 197 | New Orleans, LA |
| 17 | Oliver Mitchell Jr. | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | New Orleans, LA |
| 26 | Walker Davis | WR | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Dallas, TX |
| 37 | Cash Semonza | WR | FR | 5'10" | 178 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 39 | John Barton | WR | FR | 5'11" | 214 | Lafayette, LA |
| 81 | Deuce Hadley Jr. | WR | FR | 6'2" | 173 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 82 | Keyshaun Coleman | WR | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Madison, MS |
| 83 | Seth Gale | WR | SO | 5'10" | 171 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 85 | Gabe Daniels | WR | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 13 | Ty Thompson | TE | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 19 | Dawson Johnson | TE | SO | 6'3" | 232 | Denver, CO |
| 22 | Jakson Judge | TE | JR | 6'1" | 209 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 38 | Evan Mickow | TE | FR | 6'5" | 216 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 80 | Vance Bolyard | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | Greensboro, NC |
| 86 | Gabe Lovorn | TE | FR | 6'4" | 241 | Medina, TN |
| 87 | Cameron Roberts | TE | FR | 6'5" | 237 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 88 | Colby Simpson | TE | FR | 6'6" | 247 | Westlake Village, CA |
| 89 | DJ Cicero | TE | SO | 6'3" | 226 | Palos Verdes Estates, CA |
| 51 | John Bock II | OL | SR | 6'3" | 316 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 52 | Tristen Fortenberry | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Pascagoula, MS |
| 55 | Dominic Steward | OL | SO | 6'5" | 280 | Atlanta, GA |
| 58 | Ryan Mickow | OL | JR | 6'7" | 311 | Broward County, FL |
| 59 | Andre Amos Jr. | OL | FR | 6'5" | 335 | Germantown, TN |
| 60 | Gavin Marks | OL | SO | 6'3" | 297 | Wendell, NC |
| 61 | Leo Wulffraat | OL | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Austin, TX |
| 62 | Aiden Martin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 308 | Berryhill, OK |
| 65 | Brady Wyatt | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Dallas, TX |
| 67 | Tylan George | OL | FR | 6'3" | 319 | West Monroe, LA |
| 68 | Robbie Pizzolato | OL | SR | 6'4" | 311 | Metairie, LA |
| 70 | Juelz Baptiste | OL | FR | 6'5" | 323 | New Orleans, LA |
| 71 | Riley Rushing | OL | JR | 6'4" | 322 | Milton, GA |
| 72 | Mitch Hodnett | OL | SO | 6'5" | 294 | Monroe, LA |
| 73 | Elijah Baker | OL | SO | 6'3" | 295 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 74 | Jaxon Ducre | OL | SO | 6'3" | 252 | New Orleans, LA |
| 75 | Colin O'Carroll | OL | SO | 6'2" | 291 | Tampa, FL |
| 76 | Gresham Perry | OL | FR | 6'4" | 322 | Lafayette, LA |
| 77 | Darion Reed | OL | JR | 6'7" | 314 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 78 | Reese Baker | OL | SO | 6'5" | 292 | Madison, AL |
| 6 | Kameron Hamilton | DE | SR | 6'4" | 292 | Zachary, LA |
| 10 | Gerrod Henderson | DE | SR | 6'2" | 267 | Spring, TX |
| 15 | Jordan McAllister | DE | JR | 6'3" | 254 | South Orange, NJ |
| 40 | Warren Roberts Jr. | DE | FR | 6'2" | 219 | New Orleans, LA |
| 48 | Jah'rie Garner | DE | JR | 6'3" | 234 | New Orleans, LA |
| 58 | Cayden Dees | DE | FR | 6'3" | 259 | Montgomery, AL |
| 89 | Miles Smith | DE | FR | 6'1" | 206 | Naples, FL |
| 45 | Ed Smith IV | DL | SR | 6'3" | 306 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 51 | Reshad Sterling | DL | FR | 6'3" | 271 | Lutcher, LA |
| 53 | Jack Stivers | DL | SO | 6'3" | 276 | Atlanta, GA |
| 55 | Nick Witherspoon | DL | FR | 6'3" | 345 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 69 | AJ Westfield | DL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Cleveland, TN |
| 90 | Jordyn Crites | DL | FR | 6'7" | 274 | Friendswood, TX |
| 91 | Jackson Norwood | DL | FR | 6'3" | 302 | Marrero, LA |
| 92 | Armondous Cooley | DL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Shubuta, MS |
| 94 | Derrick Shepard Jr. | DL | SR | 6'3" | 313 | Dayton, OH |
| 96 | Geordan Guidry | DL | SO | 6'2" | 282 | Ruston, LA |
| 97 | Nikolas Alston | DL | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Birmingham, AL |
| 98 | PaLanding Drammeh | DL | FR | 6'2" | 292 | Hoover, AL |
| 99 | Josh Lewis | DL | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Gonzales, LA |
| 2 | Dickson Agu | LB | JR | 6'2" | 223 | Geismar, LA |
| 4 | Chris Rodgers | LB | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Corinth, MS |
| 11 | Dalton Hughes | LB | SR | 6'3" | 226 | Tupelo, MS |
| 28 | Dylan Brasher | LB | FR | 6'2" | 218 | Dripping Springs, TX |
| 41 | Chan Lumpkin | LB | FR | 6'4" | 228 | Reynolds, GA |
| 42 | Makai Williams | LB | SR | 6'1" | 231 | Cibolo, TX |
| 43 | Grayson McPherson | LB | FR | 6'3" | 221 | Aurora, CO |
| 44 | Jean Claude Joseph III | LB | JR | 6'0" | 223 | Covington, GA |
| 47 | Zach Dresch | LB | FR | 6'3" | 222 | Cheshire, CT |
| 54 | Jeffrey Curtis | LB | FR | 5'9" | 199 | River Ridge, LA |
| 0 | Shaun Nicholas | CB | JR | 6'4" | 196 | Harvey, LA |
| 5 | E'zaiah Shine | CB | SO | 6'1" | 201 | Daytona Beach, FL |
| 14 | Armani Cargo | CB | SO | 5'10" | 183 | Marrero, LA |
| 21 | Macho Stevenson | CB | JR | 6'1" | 187 | Shreveport, LA |
| 22 | Justin Agu | CB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Prairieville, LA |
| 22 | LJ Green | CB | JR | 5'10" | 172 | Montgomery, AL |
| 3 | TJ Smith | DB | SR | 5'10" | 183 | Arlington, TX |
| 6 | Josh Sims | DB | FR | 6'0" | 192 | Nashville, TN |
| 12 | Anthony Rogers | DB | SO | 5'11" | 176 | Laurel, MS |
| 13 | Kajuan Banks | DB | SR | 5'10" | 189 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 20 | Myrone Jean | DB | FR | 6'4" | 186 | Lake Wales, FL |
| 23 | Orion Saunders | DB | FR | 6'4" | 187 | Concord, MA |
| 24 | Michael Igbinoghene | DB | FR | 5'10" | 198 | Trussville, AL |
| 30 | Joshua Moore | DB | JR | 6'2" | 202 | League City, TX |
| 30 | Syre Gilmore | DB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | New Orleans, LA |
| 36 | Lawrence Moton | DB | FR | 6'4" | 186 | Kathleen, GA |
| 1 | Jack Tchienchou | S | JR | 5'10" | 192 | Atlanta, GA |
| 7 | Kevin Adams III | S | JR | 5'10" | 195 | Destrehan, LA |
| 26 | Dorion Jackson | S | JR | 6'2" | 211 | Wetumpka, AL |
| 27 | Chase Green | S | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Largo, FL |
| 31 | Carson Klein | S | SO | 6'2" | 209 | Avon, CT |
| 35 | Cooper Helmke | PK | FR | 6'3" | 202 | Metairie, LA |
| 46 | Zach Marini | PK | SO | 5'11" | 172 | Seattle, WA |
| 96 | Jackson Courville | PK | JR | 5'10" | 184 | Centerville, OH |
| 33 | Brooks Moore | P | FR | 6'1" | 212 | Adel, GA |
| 34 | William Hudlow | P | JR | 5'11" | 215 | New Orleans, LA |
| 38 | John Allen | P | FR | 6'4" | 189 | Miami, FL |
| 57 | Jason Arredondo | LS | SO | 5'10" | 219 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 63 | Graham Coady | LS | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Milton, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 116th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#116projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.96#80
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.39 / 1.26
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 13.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 9.0%#136
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 2.6% / 6.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.02#94 | -0.26#126 | 0.32#104 |
| Defense | -0.09#54 | -0.25#18 | 0.81#119 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0015th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0569th
- Offense success rate31%9th
- Defense success rate allowed29%75th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs47%40th
- Offense success — passing downs0%1st
- Defense success allowed — standard downs32%81st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs26%53rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.802nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.247th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8014th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs0.001st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.042nd
- Defense line yards allowed3.031st
- Offense highlight yards1.358th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.231st
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed1.023rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1369th
- Defense stuff rate0.1843rd
Third down
- Third down conversion21%11th
- Third down distance faced9.53rd
- Third down conversion allowed47%23rd
- Third down distance forced7.044th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0135th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0136th
Drives
- Points per drive0.259th
- Points per drive allowed1.470th
- Average starting field position2533rd
- Opponent starting field position3225th
- Available yards gained27%14th
- Available yards allowed48%48th
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
- Scoring opportunities allowed83%42nd
- Points per scoring opportunity0.388th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.775th
- Three-and-out rate42%20th
- Three-and-outs forced33%70th
Roster
- Returning usage19%19th
- Returning EPA72.536th
- Team talent composite66550th
- Recruiting class rank64.054th
- Recruiting class points19554th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.354 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 56.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 60.6%
- Over expected
- -3.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- -3
- Fourth down vs the model
- +50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Tulane is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Tulane in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 11-3 | 7-1 | 79% | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 9-5 | 7-2 | 64% | 9.8 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 12-2 | 8-1 | 86% | 10.1 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 2020 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.6 | +0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.2-5.9. Wins the American Athletic in 5.4%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 61%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 1.0 points since preseason — lost 3-17 to Duke against an expected margin of −12, so −1.7 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 61% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.6% of seasons, having won their league in 97% of those.
Tulane’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Kansas State2.4
- wk7vs Memphis1.4
- wk6at Army1.4
- wk13at South Florida1.4
- wk8vs UTSA1.1
- wk10vs Tulsa1.1
Who to root for
Games Tulane is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas0.3
- wk10Texas Tech over West Virginia0.3
- wk11Middle Tennessee over Liberty0.3
- wk2Temple over Penn State0.3
- wk4Virginia over Delaware0.3
- wk12Michigan State over Oregon0.3
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 4.3-3.78 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Memphis at Tulane11.0
- wk13Tulane at South Florida9.4
- wk8UTSA at Tulane9.3
- wk6Tulane at Army9.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Tulane is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 9.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Armed Forces Bowl9.4%
- Fenway Bowl8.8%
- Birmingham Bowl7.2%
- Gasparilla Bowl6.3%
- Military Bowl6.2%
- First Responder Bowl3.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Tulane a player since 2010 — 28 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Tulane's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.