vs Miami · Wk 3Win prob 14%Model +17.2Schedule & Results
ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Giovanni LopezPassing575 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
Ty Clark IIIRushing141 yds · 1 TD · 7.4 avg
Carlos HernandezReceiving11 rec · 253 yds · 1 TD
Vincent FirenzeTackles20 tackles · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Wake Forest
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Roster · 116 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gio Lopez | QB | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Madison, AL |
| 6 | Steele Pizzella | QB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Simi Valley, CA |
| 13 | Billy Johnson | QB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Atherton, CA |
| 15 | Gannon Jones | QB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Cary, NC |
| 17 | Grant Lawless | QB | FR | 6'4" | 195 | Denver, NC |
| 1 | KD Daniels | RB | SO | 6'0" | 203 | West Point, MS |
| 4 | Ty Clark III | RB | JR | 6'0" | 207 | Nashville, TN |
| 21 | Kyndall Mccaleb | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | — |
| 22 | Deuce Lawrence | RB | FR | 5'8" | 190 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 24 | Sawyer Seidl | RB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Hugo, MN |
| 27 | Ryan Henley | RB | SO | 5'9" | 199 | Charlotte, NC |
| 29 | Jamar Searcy | RB | FR | 5'8" | 180 | Pittsburg, CA |
| 41 | Kalil Townes | RB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Atlanta, GA |
| 5 | Kam Shanks | WR | JR | 5'8" | 169 | Prattville, AL |
| 7 | Wondame Davis Jr. | WR | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Ennis, TX |
| 8 | Carlos Hernandez | WR | SR | 6'0" | 192 | Alhambra, CA |
| 9 | Chase Tyler | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 10 | Jack Foley | WR | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Bend, OR |
| 11 | Ny Carr | WR | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Moultrie, GA |
| 14 | Antonio Meeks | WR | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Lilburn, GA |
| 18 | Drayden Dickmann | WR | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Georgetown, TX |
| 20 | Elijah Otieno | WR | FR | 5'9" | 160 | Forney, TX |
| 23 | Zeek Jackson | WR | JR | 5'6" | 158 | Baltimore, MD |
| 25 | Eli Potts | WR | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Brock, TX |
| 28 | Hugh O'Brien | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 38 | Walker Bryson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Waynesville, NC |
| 80 | Braxton Winston III | WR | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Charlotte, NC |
| 82 | Devin Goldston | WR | FR | 6'2" | 205 | — |
| 83 | Kobe Adeleke-Hokes | WR | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Atlanta, GA |
| 88 | Bryce Kania | WR | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Chatham, NJ |
| 12 | Kamrean Johnson | TE | SR | 6'5" | 230 | Birmingham, AL |
| 48 | Matthew Lusardi | TE | SR | 6'1" | 247 | — |
| 81 | Landon Morris | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 84 | Dominick Barry | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Greenwood, IN |
| 85 | Will Loerzel | TE | SO | 6'5" | 244 | New Orleans, LA |
| 86 | Max Tillfeldt Retsler | TE | FR | 6'7" | 240 | Stockholm |
| 87 | Charlie Wingfield | TE | FR | 6'4" | 239 | Franklin Lakes, NJ |
| 89 | Brady Shust | TE | FR | 6'6" | 255 | — |
| 50 | Ja'Marion Kennedy | OL | JR | 6'3" | 323 | Shreveport, LA |
| 51 | Devin McRae | OL | JR | 6'3" | 294 | McRae, GA |
| 52 | Uber Ajongo | OL | SO | 6'6" | 308 | Ottawa, ON |
| 55 | Tolu Olajide | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Lawrenceville, NJ |
| 56 | Ethan Calloway | OL | SO | 6'7" | 305 | Mooresville, NC |
| 60 | Will Saba | OL | FR | 6'5" | 272 | Purcellville, VA |
| 62 | Jaishaun Offutt | OL | FR | 6'3" | 342 | Winchester, VA |
| 64 | Ryan Berger | OL | JR | 6'4" | 318 | Portland, OR |
| 65 | Clinton Richard | OL | SO | 6'3" | 305 | Hiram, GA |
| 67 | Elliot Demaine | OL | FR | 6'7" | 280 | Ottawa, ON |
| 68 | Luke Beemer | OL | SO | 6'3" | 313 | Nashville, TN |
| 69 | Dalton DeBoer | OL | FR | 6'5" | 370 | — |
| 70 | Will Way | OL | JR | 6'3" | 290 | Tucson, AZ |
| 72 | Aidan Martin | OL | FR | 6'6" | 265 | Denver, CO |
| 73 | George Steih | OL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Franklin, TN |
| 74 | John Ohnegian | OL | SR | 6'2" | 304 | Ramsey, NJ |
| 75 | Derrell Johnson II | OL | SR | 6'3" | 306 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 76 | Fletcher Turk | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | — |
| 77 | Dylan Durbin | OL | FR | 6'6" | 275 | — |
| 78 | Jack Hines | OL | SO | 6'7" | 311 | Avon, CT |
| 79 | Langston Hogg | OL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 9 | Camden Hardy | DL | SO | 6'3" | 231 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | Gabe Kirschke | DL | SR | 6'5" | 249 | Lone Tree, CO |
| 11 | Langston Hardy | DL | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 14 | Tyler Walton | DL | JR | 6'5" | 265 | Suwanee, GA |
| 18 | D.J. Johnson | DL | SO | 6'4" | 248 | Wilbraham, MA |
| 20 | Kerrington Lee | DL | JR | 6'4" | 252 | Palm Beach Gardens, FL |
| 48 | Ryan Harrington | DL | FR | 6'4" | 230 | — |
| 52 | Dallas Afalava | DL | SR | 6'1" | 291 | Seattle, WA |
| 55 | Kadear Dembele | DL | FR | 6'3" | 285 | West Haven, CT |
| 90 | Sydir Mitchell | DL | JR | 6'6" | 355 | Paterson, NJ |
| 91 | Lucas Smalls-Allen | DL | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Roswell, GA |
| 92 | Sefa Sackey | DL | FR | 6'5" | 215 | — |
| 93 | Cade Holles | DL | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Centennial, CO |
| 94 | Zach Lohavichan | DL | SR | 6'3" | 285 | Charlotte, NC |
| 95 | Brandon Smiley | DL | SR | 6'2" | 306 | Durham, NC |
| 96 | Cooper Long | DL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | — |
| 97 | Matt Herron | DL | SR | 6'3" | 280 | Holladay, UT |
| 98 | Christian Harris | DL | FR | 6'0" | 320 | — |
| 99 | Josiah Pratt | DL | FR | 6'0" | 315 | Houston, TX |
| 7 | Buom Jock | LB | JR | 6'5" | 235 | Mankato, MN |
| 12 | Tylan McNichols | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | Decatur, MS |
| 21 | Aiden Hall | LB | SR | 6'0" | 231 | Pleasant Grove, AL |
| 23 | Vincent Firenze | LB | JR | 6'4" | 221 | Syracuse, NY |
| 32 | Joel Lowenberg | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 40 | Whittman Whaley | LB | SO | 6'2" | 222 | Sevierville, TN |
| 42 | Isaac Nelson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 43 | Frank Cusano | LB | SO | 6'2" | 222 | Granite Bay, CA |
| 44 | Monroe Partin | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Daphne, AL |
| 46 | Deuce Dyce | LB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Hamden, CT |
| 2 | Deuce Blades II | DB | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 3 | Bernard Causey | DB | SO | 5'11" | 165 | New Orleans, LA |
| 4 | Sascha Garcia | DB | SO | 6'2" | 192 | Clinton, MD |
| 5 | Davaughn Patterson | DB | JR | 6'0" | 217 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 6 | Rushaun Tongue | DB | SO | 6'1" | 193 | Pasadena, MD |
| 8 | Braylon Johnson | DB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Richmond, VA |
| 13 | Ashaad Williams | DB | SR | 6'2" | 178 | Russellville, AL |
| 15 | Devin Cook | DB | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 17 | Zamari Stevenson | DB | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Statesville, NC |
| 22 | Myles Turpin | DB | SO | 5'11" | 202 | Ashburn, VA |
| 24 | Micah Bright | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Concord, NC |
| 25 | Joshua Patterson | DB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 26 | Freddie Gillens | DB | FR | 6'0" | 171 | Columbia, SC |
| 27 | Travon West | DB | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Piedmont, SC |
| 28 | AJ Marks | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Detroit, MI |
| 29 | Jake Ryan | DB | SO | 6'0" | 199 | Minden, NE |
| 30 | Jerron Blackwell | DB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Greensboro, NC |
| 34 | Micheal Ahoua | DB | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Torrington, CT |
| 35 | Koredell Bartley | DB | SO | 5'11" | 173 | Greensboro, NC |
| 36 | Seth Carethers | DB | FR | 6'0" | 165 | Coppell, TX |
| 37 | Trey Warren III | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Pahokee, FL |
| 38 | Somad Eaddy | DB | FR | 6'0" | 160 | Greenville, SC |
| 39 | Mahamadou Siby | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | — |
| 90 | Connor Calvert | PK | SO | 6'3" | 203 | Bend, OR |
| 97 | Caleb Carlson | PK | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Coconut Grove, FL |
| 45 | Ethan Hyams | P | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Castlecrag, NSW |
| 96 | Jack Ploszay | P | SO | 6'2" | 191 | Malvern, PA |
| 49 | Eli Gilmour | LS | SO | 6'3" | 218 | San Diego, CA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Wake Forest throws it: Jake Dickert's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 110th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 106th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wake Forest has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#6projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#110projected
- Offensefirst and second down#106projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.26#43
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.22 / 1.87
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 12.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.3%#97
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.0% / 3.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.19#39 | 0.44#30 | 0.85#26 |
| Defense | -0.10#48 | 0.38#118 | 0.30#64 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4880th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0259th
- Offense success rate43%42nd
- Defense success rate allowed50%14th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs48%42nd
- Offense success — passing downs35%54th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs54%14th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs38%19th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.588th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.7299th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.393rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.050th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.359th
- Defense line yards allowed3.128th
- Offense highlight yards2.180th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.8242nd
- Offense power success0.8063rd
- Defense power success allowed0.6067th
- Offense stuff rate0.1649th
- Defense stuff rate0.1842nd
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced6.944th
- Third down conversion allowed46%26th
- Third down distance forced4.84th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0134th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1810th
Drives
- Points per drive3.780th
- Points per drive allowed1.758th
- Average starting field position3064th
- Opponent starting field position2387th
- Available yards gained76%89th
- Available yards allowed46%59th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.775th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.457th
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced30%59th
Roster
- Returning usage12%9th
- Returning EPA44.124th
- Team talent composite68155th
- Recruiting class rank39.072nd
- Recruiting class points21872nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.362 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 60.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.8%
- Over expected
- +7.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- -10
- Fourth down vs the model
- -67
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Wake Forest is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Wake Forest in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.6 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 1-7 | 33% | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 3-5 | 62% | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 11-3 | 7-3 | 79% | 8.3 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 44% | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.8 | +0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.0. Wins the ACC in 0.7%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
down 1.8 points since preseason — won 38-16 over Akron against an expected margin of +29, so −6.7 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 23% where the average ACC team is 44%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Wake Forest’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3vs Miami8.1
- wk4at Louisville4.0
- wk11at SMU4.0
- wk9vs Virginia3.3
- wk12at Georgia Tech2.7
- wk13vs Duke2.6
Who to root for
Games Wake Forest is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2Temple over Penn State0.6
- wk9North Carolina over Miami0.5
- wk13Notre Dame over Syracuse0.5
- wk13Akron over Buffalo0.5
- wk5Clemson over Miami0.4
- wk3Utah State over Utah0.4
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 3.5-5.511 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk3Miami at Wake Forest4.1
- wk4Wake Forest at Louisville1.9
- wk11Wake Forest at SMU1.9
- wk9Virginia at Wake Forest1.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Wake Forest is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Military Bowl7.3%
- Fenway Bowl7.0%
- Pinstripe Bowl6.6%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl6.0%
- Sun Bowl4.9%
- Birmingham Bowl4.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Wake Forest a player since 2010 — 11 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Wake Forest's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.