@ Northwestern · Wk 3Win prob 16%Model +15.8Schedule & Results
GTGeorgia TechW14-13✗Wk 2vsWESTWeber StateW52-21✓Wk 3@NUNorthwestern+15.816%Wk 4@
BAYBaylor+7.034%Wk 5vs
TTUTexas Tech+28.32%Wk 7vs
UTAHUtah+11.224%Wk 8@
OKSTOklahoma State-0.150%Wk 9vs
KSUKansas State+6.035%Wk 10@
ASUArizona State+7.033%Wk 11vs
HOUHouston+12.023%Wk 12@
CINCincinnati+3.043%Wk 13vs
UCFUCF-3.057%Team Leaders
Julian LewisPassing490 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
Micah WelchRushing164 yds · 2 TD · 6.8 avg
Joseph WilliamsReceiving6 rec · 146 yds · 2 TD
Randon FontenetteTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 106 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dominiq Ponder | QB | SR | 6'5" | 200 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 10 | Julian Lewis | QB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Carrollton, GA |
| 14 | Kaneal Sweetwyne | QB | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Lehi, UT |
| 16 | Isaac Wilson | QB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Draper, UT |
| 9 | Richard Young | RB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Lehigh Acres, FL |
| 20 | DeKalon Taylor | RB | SR | 5'9" | 165 | Longview, TX |
| 23 | JaQuail Smith | RB | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Orlando, FL |
| 26 | Damian Henderson II | RB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Los Alamitos, CA |
| 27 | Bryce Hicks | RB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Atlanta, GA |
| 28 | Cam Netwon | RB | FR | 5'9" | 185 | Prosper, TX |
| 29 | Micah Welch | RB | JR | 5'9" | 215 | Milledgeville, GA |
| 34 | Titus Bautista | RB | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Chicago, IL |
| 37 | Leonardo Valle | RB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Richmond Hill, GA |
| 47 | Cody Jordan | RB | FR | 5'9" | 185 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 3 | DeAndre Moore Jr. | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Bellflower, CA |
| 4 | Ernest Campbell | WR | JR | 5'9" | 145 | Refugio, TX |
| 5 | Hykeem Williams | WR | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 6 | Quentin Gibson | WR | SO | 5'9" | 155 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 7 | Kam Perry | WR | SR | 5'9" | 170 | Marietta, GA |
| 8 | Joseph Williams | WR | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Arlington, TX |
| 13 | Kaleb Mathis | WR | SR | 5'9" | 165 | Arlington, TX |
| 14 | Quanell Farrakhan Jr. | WR | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Houston, TX |
| 17 | Christian Ward | WR | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Carrollton, GA |
| 18 | Danny Scudero | WR | SR | 5'9" | 175 | San Jose, CA |
| 22 | Tagert Bardin | WR | SR | 6'0" | 160 | — |
| 32 | Alex Ward | WR | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Carrollton, GA |
| 36 | Carson Westbrook | WR | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Ellaville, GA |
| 80 | Jacob Swain | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Melissa, TX |
| 81 | Braedon Brenner | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Mesa, AZ |
| 83 | Zayne DeSouza | TE | SO | 6'6" | 260 | Loveland, CO |
| 85 | Zach Atkins | TE | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Olathe, KS |
| 86 | Brady Kopetz | TE | SR | 6'4" | 270 | Portland, OR |
| 87 | Charlie Williams | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Aspen, CO |
| 88 | Corbin Laisure | TE | SO | 6'5" | 250 | Bluff City, TN |
| 89 | Fisher Clements | TE | SR | 6'7" | 265 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 51 | Chauncey Gooden | OL | SO | 6'3" | 380 | Nashville, TN |
| 52 | Andre Roye Jr. | OL | SR | 6'6" | 295 | District Heights, MD |
| 53 | Larry Johnson III | OL | SR | 6'7" | 350 | Savannah, GA |
| 54 | Taj White | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Jersey City, NJ |
| 55 | Bo Hughley | OL | SR | 6'7" | 295 | Fairburn, GA |
| 56 | Phillip Houston | OL | SR | 6'5" | 280 | Mckinney, TX |
| 57 | Leon Bell | OL | SR | 6'8" | 330 | Dickinson, TX |
| 58 | Demetrius Hunter | OL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Orange, TX |
| 59 | Yahya Attia | OL | JR | 6'4" | 340 | London |
| 61 | Aiden DeCorte | OL | SR | 6'1" | 300 | Jackson, MI |
| 62 | Sean Kinney | OL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Nazareth, PA |
| 65 | Ben Gula | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Weston, FL |
| 71 | Jayvon McFadden | OL | SO | 6'3" | 295 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 72 | Xavier Payne | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Canandaigua, NY |
| 73 | Jose Soto | OL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Tulare, CA |
| 75 | Jayven Richardson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Gonzales, LA |
| 78 | Hudson Steber | OL | SO | 6'3" | 270 | Evergreen, CO |
| 27 | Domata Peko Jr. | DE | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Calabasas, CA |
| 41 | Kylan Salter | DE | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Cedar Hill, TX |
| 49 | Quency Wiggins | DE | SR | 6'5" | 255 | Napoleonville, LA |
| 52 | Immanuel Ezeogu | DE | JR | 6'2" | 240 | Suffolk, VA |
| 53 | Toby Anene | DE | SR | 6'4" | 260 | Saint Paul, MN |
| 92 | Sam Gadie | DE | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Trenton, NJ |
| 95 | Yamil Talib | DE | JR | 6'2" | 240 | Richardson, TX |
| 96 | Balansama Kamara | DE | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 45 | Vili Taufatofua | DL | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Auckland |
| 56 | Lamont Lester Jr. | DL | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Ramsey, NJ |
| 88 | Samu Taumanupepe | DL | SR | 6'3" | 375 | Humble, TX |
| 90 | Tyler Moore | DL | JR | 5'10" | 290 | Locust Grove, GA |
| 91 | Sedrick Smith | DL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Atlanta, GA |
| 93 | Malachi Brown | DL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Milpitas, CA |
| 94 | Josiah Manu | DL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Loveland, CO |
| 97 | Santana Hopper | DL | SR | 6'2" | 265 | Shelby, NC |
| 99 | Dylan Manuel | DL | JR | 6'1" | 300 | Stockbridge, GA |
| 17 | Liona Lefau | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Kahuku, HI |
| 35 | Tyler Martinez | LB | SR | 6'1" | 220 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 40 | Colby Johnson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Sammamish, WA |
| 44 | Gideon ESPN Lampron | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | Lagrange, OH |
| 44 | Gideon Lampron | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | Lagrange, OH |
| 50 | Rodney Colton Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Newnan, GA |
| 51 | Carson Crawford | LB | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Carthage, TX |
| 54 | Bo LaPenna | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Commerce City, CO |
| 55 | Gage Goldberg | LB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Boerne, TX |
| 31 | Preston Ashley | CB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Brandon, MS |
| 4 | Naeten Mitchell | DB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Temple, TX |
| 5 | RJ Johnson | DB | SR | 6'2" | 185 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 6 | Boo Carter | DB | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 7 | Randon Fontenette | DB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Freeport, TX |
| 8 | Emory Floyd | DB | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 9 | Jaydan Hardy | DB | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Lewisville, TX |
| 10 | Makari Vickers | DB | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 13 | Jason Stokes Jr. | DB | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 15 | Jah Jah Boyd | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 18 | Paul Omodia | DB | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Richmond, TX |
| 20 | Cree Thomas | DB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 25 | Mojo Williams Jr. | DB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | New Orleans, LA |
| 26 | Braylon Edwards | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Duncanville, TX |
| 28 | Ben Finneseth | DB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Durango, CO |
| 30 | Justin Eaglin | DB | SR | 6'1" | 175 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 32 | Myles Weston | DB | SR | 5'11" | 175 | Port Charlotte, FL |
| 33 | Kole Mathis | DB | JR | 5'8" | 140 | Arlington, TX |
| 34 | Drew Molinari | DB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Salinas, CA |
| 39 | Donavon Stephens | DB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 39 | Cadel Ayala | PK | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Reno, NV |
| 46 | Elliot Arnold | PK | SO | 5'10" | 165 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 35 | Damon Greaves | P | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Busselton |
| 38 | Daniel Gerlach | P | SR | 6'0" | 160 | Boulder, CO |
| 45 | Luke Whiting | LS | SR | 6'4" | 225 | Holladay, UT |
| 50 | Trey Young | LS | SO | 5'10" | 195 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 60 | Brady Radz | LS | SR | 6'2" | 175 | Englewood, CO |
| 64 | Nelson Williams | LS | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Chattanooga, TN |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th on first and second down, and they are 130th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#134projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#128projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.09#63
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.92 / 0.90
- Power / stuff (off)
- 88.9% / 12.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.8%#12
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 15.8% / 9.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.04#80 | 0.23#66 | 0.96#21 |
| Defense | -0.23#33 | -0.03#44 | 0.71#112 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0520th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0748th
- Offense success rate38%23rd
- Defense success rate allowed37%54th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs41%21st
- Offense success — passing downs32%47th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs39%63rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs33%34th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.133rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.253rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9537th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.520th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.728th
- Defense line yards allowed1.981st
- Offense highlight yards0.3523rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0487th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.3385th
- Offense stuff rate0.1177th
- Defense stuff rate0.4499th
Third down
- Third down conversion44%49th
- Third down distance faced6.561st
- Third down conversion allowed38%45th
- Third down distance forced7.453rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1123rd
- Net success rate — second half0.0953rd
Drives
- Points per drive1.641st
- Points per drive allowed0.6787th
- Average starting field position3277th
- Opponent starting field position3130th
- Available yards gained58%71st
- Available yards allowed37%78th
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.342nd
- Points allowed per opportunity0.8691st
- Three-and-out rate22%59th
- Three-and-outs forced33%70th
Roster
- Returning usage36%42nd
- Returning EPA26.411th
- Team talent composite73272nd
- Recruiting class rank67.052nd
- Recruiting class points19352nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.347 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 40.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 53.3%
- Over expected
- -12.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +1
- Fourth down vs the model
- -29
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Colorado is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Colorado in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 25% | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 7-2 | 69% | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 33% | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 1-11 | 1-8 | 8% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 33% | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 67% | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 4.9 | +0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.1. Wins the Big 12 in 1.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
up 0.4 points since preseason — won 14-13 over Georgia Tech against an expected margin of −8, so +8.6 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 35% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.
Colorado’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk5vs Texas Tech8.2
- wk12at Cincinnati4.7
- wk7vs Utah4.5
- wk9vs Kansas State4.4
- wk4at Baylor4.4
- wk10at Arizona State4.4
Who to root for
Games Colorado is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech0.9
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State0.7
- wk8Illinois over Oregon0.5
- wk12Nebraska over Ohio State0.5
- wk7North Dakota State over Nevada0.5
- wk11Iowa State over Cincinnati0.5
Big 12
0-0 in league play, projected 3.6-5.414 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5Texas Tech at Colorado4.6
- wk7Utah at Colorado2.1
- wk10Colorado at Arizona State2.1
- wk12Colorado at Cincinnati2.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Colorado is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 4.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- First Responder Bowl7.2%
- Independence Bowl6.8%
- Rate Bowl6.2%
- Liberty Bowl5.8%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl5.3%
- Texas Bowl4.4%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 14 have sent Colorado a player since 2010 — 42 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Colorado's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.