@ Alabama · Wk 3Win prob 28%Model +9.0Schedule & Results
NMSUNew Mexico StateW34-17✓Wk 1vs
SMUSMUL24-27✓Wk 3@ALAAlabama+9.028%Wk 4vsCEARCentral ArkansasWk 5vs
UVAVirginia+13.319%Wk 6@
LOULouisville+5.736%Wk 7@
MIAMiami+17.612%Wk 9vs
CLEMClemson+2.344%Wk 10@
BCBoston College-8.371%Wk 11@
PITTPittsburgh+2.743%Wk 12vs
NCSUNC State-2.556%Wk 13vs
FLAFlorida+2.444%ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Ashton DanielsPassing327 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Ousmane KromahRushing231 yds · 2 TD · 6.4 avg
Samuel SingletonReceiving6 rec · 94 yds · 2 TD
Ashlynd BarkerTackles15 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malachi Marshall | QB | JR | 6'2" | 168 | Charlotte, NC |
| 4 | Dean DeNobile | QB | SR | 6'2" | 203 | Upper Saddle River, NJ |
| 9 | Kevin Sperry | QB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Denton, TX |
| 12 | Michael Grant | QB | JR | 6'3" | 216 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 14 | Ashton Daniels | QB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Buford, GA |
| 16 | Jaden O'Neal | QB | FR | 6'3" | 231 | Long Beach, CA |
| 3 | Samuel Singleton Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Charleston, SC |
| 5 | Quintrevion Wisner | RB | SR | 6'0" | 203 | Mexia, TX |
| 21 | Zay Parks | RB | SO | 5'11" | 204 | Crestview, FL |
| 22 | Gemari Sands | RB | JR | 5'11" | 208 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 24 | Amari Thomas | RB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Marianna, FL |
| 32 | Ousmane Kromah | RB | SO | 6'1" | 216 | Leesburg, GA |
| 0 | Duce Robinson | WR | SR | 6'6" | 230 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | WR | FR | 6'0" | 182 | Hollywood, FL |
| 8 | Micahi Danzy | WR | SO | 6'1" | 194 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 10 | EJ White | WR | FR | 6'2" | 171 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 11 | Devin Carter | WR | FR | 6'1" | 176 | Atlanta, GA |
| 13 | Tae'Shaun Gelsey | WR | FR | 6'4" | 227 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 15 | Jayvan Boggs | WR | SO | 6'1" | 209 | Cocoa, FL |
| 19 | Darryon Williams | WR | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Tampa, FL |
| 81 | Jonah Winston | WR | FR | 5'9" | 171 | Birmingham, AL |
| 82 | Teriq Mallory | WR | FR | 6'5" | 215 | New Haven, CT |
| 84 | Brandon Bennett | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Miramar, FL |
| 86 | Tony Bland | WR | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Tampa, FL |
| 88 | Keenen Jeune | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 6 | Desirrio Riles | TE | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 18 | Landen Thomas | TE | JR | 6'4" | 234 | Moultrie, GA |
| 23 | Chase Loftin | TE | FR | 6'6" | 235 | Omaha, NE |
| 44 | Gavin Markey | TE | FR | 6'1" | 234 | Athens, GA |
| 80 | Corbyn Fordham | TE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| 83 | Xavier Tiller | TE | FR | 6'5" | 239 | Atlanta, GA |
| 85 | Drew Hardwick | TE | FR | 6'5" | 224 | Milton, GA |
| 89 | Greyson Labiad | TE | SR | 6'3" | 249 | Celebration, FL |
| 51 | Paul Bowling | OL | SO | 6'3" | 305 | Marietta, GA |
| 52 | Chavez Thompson | OL | FR | 6'1" | 318 | Cocoa, FL |
| 54 | Chastan Brown | OL | FR | 6'8" | 300 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 55 | Bradyn Welch-Joiner | OL | JR | 6'2" | 327 | Anniston, AL |
| 56 | Steven Pickard | OL | FR | 6'5" | 335 | Charleston, SC |
| 58 | Luke Francis Jr. | OL | FR | 6'5" | 349 | Croydon |
| 59 | Steven Moore | OL | JR | 6'5" | 327 | Memphis, TN |
| 63 | Jakobe Green | OL | FR | 6'3" | 315 | Quincy, FL |
| 65 | André Otto | OL | JR | 6'5" | 318 | Key West, FL |
| 69 | Mike Ionata | OL | FR | 6'6" | 308 | East Lake, FL |
| 71 | Nate Pabst | OL | SR | 6'7" | 315 | Springdale, OH |
| 72 | Donald Akhibi | OL | FR | 6'7" | 260 | Douglasville, GA |
| 73 | Nikau Hepi | OL | FR | 6'7" | 379 | Auckland |
| 74 | Jonathan Daniels | OL | SO | 6'4" | 321 | Pensacola, FL |
| 75 | Sean Poret | OL | FR | 6'5" | 296 | Sandy Springs, GA |
| 77 | Xavier Chaplin | OL | SR | 6'8" | 346 | Beaufort, SC |
| 78 | Jayden Todd | OL | SO | 6'6" | 303 | Dublin, GA |
| 79 | Chimdia Nwaiwu | OL | JR | 6'5" | 307 | Coppell, TX |
| 1 | Darryll Desir | DL | SO | 6'5" | 259 | Miami, FL |
| 3 | Mandrell Desir | DL | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Miami, FL |
| 5 | Daniel Lyons | DL | SR | 6'4" | 292 | Miami, FL |
| 8 | Deante McCray | DL | SR | 6'4" | 291 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 13 | Deamontae Diggs | DL | SR | 6'5" | 272 | Mckeesport, PA |
| 15 | Rylan Kennedy | DL | SR | 6'3" | 251 | Mansfield, TX |
| 32 | Jalen Anderson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 242 | Slidell, LA |
| 54 | Earnest Rankins | DL | FR | 6'4" | 274 | Atlanta, GA |
| 55 | Kevin Wynn | DL | FR | 6'2" | 317 | Greensboro, GA |
| 88 | Jordan Sanders | DL | SR | 6'4" | 310 | Inglewood, CA |
| 90 | Jaemin Pinckney | DL | FR | 6'5" | 222 | Ridgeville, SC |
| 91 | Cam Brooks | DL | FR | 6'4" | 243 | Thomasville, GA |
| 92 | Judah Daniels | DL | FR | 6'3" | 272 | Lehigh Acres, FL |
| 94 | Franklin Whitley | DL | FR | 6'6" | 282 | Greenville, SC |
| 95 | Christian Collins-Murray | DL | FR | 6'3" | 224 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 96 | Tylon Lee | DL | FR | 6'4" | 271 | Pace, FL |
| 98 | Wihtlley Cadeau | DL | FR | 6'5" | 284 | Atlanta, GA |
| 9 | Omar Graham Jr. | LB | SR | 6'1" | 234 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 10 | Chris Jones | LB | JR | 6'1" | 231 | Byram, MS |
| 20 | Blake Nichelson | LB | SR | 6'3" | 222 | Ripon, CA |
| 28 | Mikai Gbayor | LB | SR | 6'2" | 222 | Irvington, NJ |
| 29 | Caleb LaVallee | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Marietta, GA |
| 30 | Izayia Williams | LB | FR | 6'2" | 226 | Tavares, FL |
| 31 | Karon Maycock | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Miami, FL |
| 35 | Ethan Pritchard | LB | FR | 6'2" | 224 | Sanford, FL |
| 38 | Daylen Green | LB | FR | 6'1" | 213 | Bainbridge, GA |
| 41 | AJ Cottrill | LB | SR | 6'0" | 229 | Tampa, FL |
| 42 | Chris Thomas | LB | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Southaven, MS |
| 43 | Trent Rogers | LB | FR | 6'3" | 216 | Havana, FL |
| 45 | Noah LaVallee | LB | FR | 6'2" | 227 | Marietta, GA |
| 53 | Brandon Torres | LB | JR | 6'1" | 232 | Naples, FL |
| 0 | Quindarrius Jones | DB | SR | 6'2" | 187 | Meridian, MS |
| 4 | Charles Lester III | DB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Sarasota, FL |
| 6 | Ja'Bril Rawls | DB | JR | 6'1" | 178 | Pensacola, FL |
| 7 | Ashlynd Barker | DB | SR | 6'3" | 217 | Columbus, GA |
| 11 | CJ Richard Jr. | DB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Houston, TX |
| 12 | Nehemiah Chandler | DB | SO | 6'1" | 183 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 14 | Ma'Khi Jones | DB | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Newark, NJ |
| 16 | Karson Hobbs | DB | JR | 6'1" | 189 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 18 | Jamari Howard | DB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 19 | Jarvis Boatwright Jr. | DB | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Clearwater, FL |
| 21 | Max Redmon | DB | FR | 6'1" | 196 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 22 | Zae Thomas | DB | FR | 6'3" | 207 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 23 | Chuck Kennon | DB | FR | 6'2" | 186 | Bradenton, FL |
| 24 | K.J. Kirkland | DB | JR | 6'1" | 209 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 26 | Ricky Knight III | DB | SO | 6'0" | 184 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 27 | Jordan Crutchfield | DB | FR | 6'3" | 218 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 33 | Antonio Cromartie Jr. | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 37 | Tre Bell III | DB | FR | 5'11" | 199 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 40 | Darin Townsend | DB | FR | 6'0" | 155 | Clearwater, FL |
| 47 | Donny Hiebert | DB | SR | 6'2" | 201 | Gainesville, FL |
| 39 | Gabe Panikowski | PK | SR | 5'9" | 206 | San Diego, CA |
| 93 | Conor McAneney | PK | SO | 6'3" | 213 | Plumbridge |
| 36 | Daniel Hughes | P | JR | 6'5" | 219 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 85 | Ethan Post | P | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Rochester, MN |
| 87 | Carter Jula | P | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Sarasota, FL |
| 48 | Caleb Bowers | LS | SR | 6'1" | 237 | Whitefish Bay, WI |
| 53 | Alex Nocco | LS | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Tampa, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Florida State is in year 7 under Mike Norvell, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th in the push up front.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#5projected
- Offenserunning it#13projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#16projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.31#39
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.09 / 1.58
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 13.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.7%#68
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.5% / 8.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.05#84 | 0.15#86 | 0.49#77 |
| Defense | 0.15#120 | -0.40#6 | 1.45#137 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2452nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2722nd
- Offense success rate41%35th
- Defense success rate allowed45%25th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%36th
- Offense success — passing downs33%48th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs46%39th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs40%16th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.477th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.518th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.160th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.377th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.362nd
- Defense line yards allowed3.126th
- Offense highlight yards1.671st
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5357th
- Offense power success0.6738th
- Defense power success allowed0.8334th
- Offense stuff rate0.1461st
- Defense stuff rate0.1112th
Third down
- Third down conversion36%28th
- Third down distance faced6.464th
- Third down conversion allowed58%5th
- Third down distance forced8.066th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0444th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1514th
Drives
- Points per drive2.970th
- Points per drive allowed2.340th
- Average starting field position2852nd
- Opponent starting field position2666th
- Available yards gained55%66th
- Available yards allowed61%24th
- Scoring opportunities per drive95%80th
- Scoring opportunities allowed89%34th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.164th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.655th
- Three-and-out rate15%76th
- Three-and-outs forced16%24th
Roster
- Returning usage31%38th
- Returning EPA16365th
- Team talent composite80085th
- Recruiting class rank16.089th
- Recruiting class points25289th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.072 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 20 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 39.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 47.6%
- Over expected
- -7.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +10
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Florida State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Florida State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 50% | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 13-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 10.5 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 5-3 | 77% | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 42% | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 33% | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 6.7 | +0.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 5.5-6.5.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 7.2 points since preseason — won 34-17 over New Mexico State against an expected margin of +30, so −15.4 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 77% where the average ACC team is 44%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Florida State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk7at Miami5.9
- wk3at Alabama4.4
- wk13vs Florida3.0
- wk11at Pittsburgh2.8
- wk6at Louisville2.5
- wk5vs Virginia2.2
Who to root for
Games Florida State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12Texas over Arkansas0.5
- wk12Kentucky over Missouri0.4
- wk9North Carolina over Miami0.4
- wk2Utah State over Washington0.4
- wk11Duke over Miami0.4
- wk4App State over NC State0.4
ACC
0-1 in league play, projected 3.1-4.915 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Florida State at Miami2.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Florida State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.9% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Military Bowl7.3%
- Pinstripe Bowl6.9%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl6.0%
- Fenway Bowl5.3%
- Sun Bowl4.9%
- First Responder Bowl3.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 16 have sent Florida State a player since 2010 — 55 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Florida State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.