@ Baylor · Wk 3Win prob 22%Model +12.1Schedule & Results
LSULSUL14-45✓Wk 3@BAYBaylor+12.122%Wk 5vs
ARMYArmy+8.031%Wk 6vs
ULLouisiana-6.164%Wk 7@
ULMUL Monroe-7.268%Wk 8vs
ODUOld Dominion-2.857%Wk 9@
USASouth Alabama-1.453%Wk 10@
TROYTroy-1.153%Wk 11vs
USMSouthern Miss0.051%Wk 12vs
ARSTArkansas State-12.278%Wk 13@
GASOGeorgia Southern-2.155%Team Leaders
Blake BakerPassing360 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
Trey KukukRushing52 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 avg
Jalen MickensReceiving9 rec · 234 yds · 2 TD
Alonzo Jackson Jr.Tackles16 tackles · 5 TFL · 3 sacks
Latest on Louisiana Tech
All news →LSU's power game is Tech's one soft spot
Eighty Points, Twelve Plays
Roster · 110 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Trey Kukuk | QB | SR | 6'1" | 201 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 5 | Blake Baker | QB | JR | 6'5" | 220 | Cypress, TX |
| 7 | Jackson Bradley | QB | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Oak Grove, LA |
| 13 | Michael Kirby | QB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Zachary, LA |
| 14 | Brady Vodicka | QB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Englewood, CO |
| 19 | Mason Welch | QB | JR | 6'5" | 227 | Shreveport, LA |
| 0 | Andrew Burnette | RB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Stuart, FL |
| 0 | Jaden Miller | RB | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Miami, FL |
| 20 | Rayshun Hurt | RB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | San Antonio, TX |
| 22 | Demarcus Belton | RB | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Alvarado, TX |
| 23 | Sergio Snider | RB | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 24 | Kenny Thomas | RB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Stonewall, LA |
| 26 | Dylone Brooks | RB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Ruston, LA |
| 28 | Harrison Williams | RB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Celina, TX |
| 36 | Riley Small | RB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Gonzales, LA |
| 3 | Dedrick Latulas | WR | JR | 5'7" | 165 | New Iberia, LA |
| 6 | Marcus Calwise Jr. | WR | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Youngstown, OH |
| 8 | David Pierro | WR | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Fresno, CA |
| 11 | Jalen Mickens | WR | SO | 5'9" | 187 | Willis, TX |
| 15 | Luke Watkins | WR | SO | 6'4" | 205 | Prosper, TX |
| 17 | Dane Benedix | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 31 | Brayden Curry | WR | SO | 5'7" | 161 | Shreveport, LA |
| 47 | Jay Wilkerson | WR | SR | 6'1" | 175 | Midlothian, TX |
| 83 | Carter Harris | WR | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Allen, TX |
| 85 | Johnny Casey Jr. | WR | FR | 5'9" | 165 | Shreveport, LA |
| 86 | Talyn Shettron | WR | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Edmond, OK |
| 88 | Johnnie Thiel IV | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Destrehan, LA |
| 89 | Chase Grosfeld | WR | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Cypress, CA |
| 9 | Joshua Brantley | TE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Ruston, LA |
| 45 | Skylar Kirk | TE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Aledo, TX |
| 80 | Deven Muniz | TE | JR | 6'3" | 223 | West Covina, CA |
| 81 | William Mayes | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Katy, TX |
| 82 | Luke Seib | TE | JR | 6'4" | 220 | Blue Springs, MO |
| 84 | Eli Finley | TE | SR | 6'6" | 246 | Heath, TX |
| 87 | Brayden Bockler | TE | JR | 6'4" | 237 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 50 | Tazio Rosso | OL | FR | 6'1" | 271 | St. Mary's, GA |
| 52 | Troy Smith III | OL | JR | 6'3" | 301 | New Orleans, LA |
| 53 | Austin Ellis | OL | SO | 6'4" | 305 | Whitehouse, TX |
| 56 | Andrew Richard | OL | SO | 6'3" | 304 | Central, LA |
| 57 | Tadan Bingham | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Houma, LA |
| 58 | Tye Hylton | OL | SO | 6'5" | 290 | Oviedo, FL |
| 60 | Roy Brackins III | OL | JR | 6'3" | 308 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 61 | Ervin Smith | OL | FR | 6'1" | 292 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 63 | Kaleb Campbell | OL | FR | 6'7" | 305 | Lafayette, LA |
| 66 | Will Hutchens | OL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Lindale, TX |
| 72 | Hayden Christman | OL | JR | 6'6" | 331 | Tioga, LA |
| 73 | Jackson Speer | OL | FR | 6'5" | 280 | Shreveport, LA |
| 74 | Jamon Lee Jr. | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | New Iberia, LA |
| 75 | Jacob McRae | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Allen, TX |
| 76 | Cyler Corn | OL | SO | 6'4" | 314 | Groesbeck, TX |
| 77 | Aric Adcock | OL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 78 | Bryson Weathers | OL | FR | 6'6" | 293 | Ward, AR |
| 79 | Ashanti Cole | OL | SR | 6'3" | 312 | Coushatta, LA |
| 11 | Emmanuel Oguns | DL | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Alief, TX |
| 44 | Kaleb Coleman | DL | SO | 6'4" | 255 | Trophy Club, TX |
| 46 | Daylin Page | DL | FR | 6'4" | 236 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 48 | Kaden McIver | DL | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Oakland, CA |
| 51 | Amery Edwards | DL | JR | 6'2" | 285 | Alexandria, LA |
| 54 | Justice Williams | DL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Wesley Chapel, FL |
| 90 | Jojo Odom | DL | SO | 6'4" | 265 | Parrish, AL |
| 91 | Za'Qwaun Nunn | DL | FR | 6'1" | 285 | Houston, TX |
| 92 | Lane Condry | DL | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Broken Arrow, OK |
| 93 | Jacob Bradford | DL | SO | 6'1" | 290 | Pass Christian, MS |
| 94 | Amari Wilks | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Pearland, TX |
| 96 | Ashton Dawson | DL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Shreveport, LA |
| 98 | Donovan Rieman | DL | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Enid, OK |
| 99 | Judd Rouyea | DL | JR | 6'2" | 267 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 10 | Kolbe Fields | LB | SR | 6'0" | 225 | New Orleans, LA |
| 21 | Zheric Hill | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Grambling, LA |
| 22 | Jadon Mayfield | LB | SO | 5'11" | 225 | Ruston, LA |
| 23 | Alonzo Jackson Jr. | LB | SO | 6'1" | 227 | Haynesville, LA |
| 25 | Colton Deckard | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Muenster, TX |
| 27 | Grayson Hardy | LB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Sulphur Springs, TX |
| 28 | Jeremiah Smith | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Katy, TX |
| 33 | Jaylon Parnell | LB | FR | 5'11" | 224 | Pascagoula, MS |
| 35 | Cole Watson | LB | SO | 6'0" | 220 | Marshall, TX |
| 36 | Zander Hayes | LB | FR | 5'10" | 194 | Ruston, LA |
| 40 | Ayden Combs | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Cypress, TX |
| 45 | Nate Jackson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Tulsa, OK |
| 49 | James Predtechenskis | LB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Richardson, TX |
| 0 | Jordan McRae | DB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | McRae, GA |
| 1 | Sam Fongang | DB | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Mansfield, TX |
| 2 | Amari Butler | DB | SR | 5'10" | 186 | Petal, MS |
| 3 | Kameron Carter | DB | SR | 6'1" | 175 | Natchez, MS |
| 4 | Kam Franklin | DB | JR | 6'2" | 211 | Oak Grove, LA |
| 5 | Ahkhari Johnson | DB | JR | 5'11" | 191 | Texarkana, TX |
| 7 | Janard Lockhardt | DB | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Baltimore, MD |
| 13 | MJ Moultrie II | DB | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 14 | Damien Richard II | DB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Destrehan, LA |
| 15 | Franklin Morgan Jr. | DB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Amite, LA |
| 16 | Taeden Rogers | DB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Los Alamitos, CA |
| 17 | Demario Bookhart | DB | SO | 6'1" | 175 | Spartanburg, SC |
| 18 | Jaitlin Hampton | DB | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Lancaster, TX |
| 19 | AJ Tarvin | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 20 | Ty Jones | DB | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Hollywood, FL |
| 24 | Javari Lockhart | DB | FR | 6'1" | 170 | Monroe, LA |
| 26 | Nathan Green | DB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Shreveport, LA |
| 32 | Emanual Collins | DB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Youngsville, LA |
| 37 | Zachary Jackson | DB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Monroe, LA |
| 39 | Jacoryian Crowe | DB | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Ruston, LA |
| 41 | Jake Kim | DB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Englewood, CO |
| 43 | Justin Thomas | DB | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Blanchard, LA |
| 31 | Hunter Rioux | PK | JR | 5'10" | 170 | Austin, TX |
| 38 | Kaegan Kent | PK | FR | 5'8" | 160 | Shreveport, LA |
| 46 | Hunter Fox | PK | FR | 6'1" | 185 | West Monroe, LA |
| 29 | Lexington Matthews | P | JR | 6'3" | 196 | Atlanta, GA |
| 30 | Reuben Edwards | P | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 41 | Ean Burch | LS | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Shreveport, LA |
| 59 | Jake Riggs | LS | SO | 5'11" | 188 | Homer, LA |
| 69 | Trent Sims | LS | SO | 6'3" | 210 | Sanford, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Louisiana Tech is in year 5 under Sonny Cumbie, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 20th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 115th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 106th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana Tech has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#20projected
- Defenserunning it#31projected
- Defensefirst and second down#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#115projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#106projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.21#131
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.10 / 2.53
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 26.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 27.3%#5
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 18.0% / 9.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.19#39 | 0.07#100 | 0.50#72 |
| Defense | -0.10#47 | 0.16#76 | -0.11#5 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1634th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0985th
- Offense success rate30%3rd
- Defense success rate allowed32%78th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs31%1st
- Offense success — passing downs31%42nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs36%78th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs24%64th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.799th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.169th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.285th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.695th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.49th
- Defense line yards allowed1.794th
- Offense highlight yards1.151st
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.036th
- Offense power success0.5017th
- Defense power success allowed0.7146th
- Offense stuff rate0.2028th
- Defense stuff rate0.2885th
Third down
- Third down conversion43%53rd
- Third down distance faced7.231st
- Third down conversion allowed38%45th
- Third down distance forced7.969th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1674th
- Net success rate — second half-0.204th
Drives
- Points per drive0.549th
- Points per drive allowed2.543rd
- Average starting field position2951st
- Opponent starting field position451st
- Available yards gained18%2nd
- Available yards allowed62%21st
- Scoring opportunities per drive46%3rd
- Scoring opportunities allowed93%15th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.211th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.138th
- Three-and-out rate62%1st
- Three-and-outs forced33%74th
Roster
- Returning usage49%56th
- Returning EPA13960th
- Team talent composite54310th
- Recruiting class rank99.028th
- Recruiting class points17728th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.527 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 13 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 53.1%
- Expected, given the spots
- 57.8%
- Over expected
- -4.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +9
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Louisiana Tech is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Louisiana Tech in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 8.9 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 38% | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 4-2 | 50% | 2.8 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.1 | -1.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.9-5.4. Wins the Sun Belt in 12%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 45%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.2 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 45% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.7% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
Louisiana Tech’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Baylor3.0
- wk5vs Army1.4
- wk13at Georgia Southern1.4
- wk10at Troy1.3
- wk6vs Louisiana1.2
- wk9at South Alabama1.2
Who to root for
Games Louisiana Tech is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.5
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.3
- wk7Kent State over South Florida0.3
- wk9Fresno State over Oregon State0.3
- wk7Miami over Florida State0.3
- wk3Syracuse over Pittsburgh0.3
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 5.1-2.93 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Louisiana Tech can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6Louisiana at Louisiana Tech18.5
- wk10Louisiana Tech at Troy16.1
- wk9Louisiana Tech at South Alabama15.0
- wk12Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech14.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Louisiana Tech is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Frisco Bowl11%
- New Orleans Bowl9.2%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl8.7%
- Cure Bowl8.5%
- Boca Raton Bowl7.9%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl7.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Louisiana Tech a player since 2010 — 25 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Louisiana Tech's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.