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Central Michigan

Central Michigan Chippewas

Mid-American·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1259#124
SP+
-20.0#126
FPI
-17.1
AP
NR
Nextvs Wyoming · Wk 3Win prob 63%Model -5.3
Talent #125 (540.0)Recruiting class #9554% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Central Michigan

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New Mexico dismantles Central Michigan, 38-7

Matchup · 6d ago

Strip the home field and our number is 12 where the market's is 7

Matchup · Aug 31

Roster · 110 players

FR 41SO 23JR 21SR 25
#PlayerPosClHtWt
5Jadyn GlasserQBFR6'3"245
7Angel FloresQBSR6'1"210
10Marcus BeamonQBSR6'0"210
11Ryland WattersQBFR6'4"220
14Daniel GomezQBFR6'1"215
18Geno SeetsQBFR6'3"215
2Brock TownsendRBSO6'0"235
22Trav MooreRBFR5'11"205
24Vaughn BlueRBJR5'11"205
31Jayden ClerveauxRBSR5'11"215
40Kobe HendricksRBFR5'10"185
43Nick WoodfordRBSO5'9"215
45Jordan StapletonRBFR5'9"190
47Jayel HarrisRBFR5'11"190
8Rusty VanWetzinga IVFBJR6'1"235
0Kendall JonesWRSR6'2"180
3Nasir WilliamsWRSO6'1"205
6Collin PayneWRSR6'2"210
9Justin Ruffin Jr.WRSO5'9"180
12Camden KruisengaWRSO6'2"185
15Tommy McIntoshWRSR6'4"205
16Shawn Foster IIWRJR6'0"185
17Braylen NavesWRFR6'1"200
20Langston LewisWRSR6'0"195
80Avin RobinsonWRFR5'11"180
81Tayte VanderleestWRJR6'4"220
83Da'Shon FebresWRFR6'0"195
84Dontae RobinsonWRJR6'4"220
42Landon SwansonTESO6'3"240
44Lucas HoffmeyerTEFR6'3"235
46Zack WagnerTEFR6'4"240
85Myles PetersTESO6'3"245
87Gavin SpillersTESO6'3"260
88Jaden AllenTESR6'3"245
54Triston PierreOLFR6'4"265
55Losini MakaOLSR6'2"310
56Nic DiSantoOLSR6'5"320
58John WilliamsOLSR6'5"280
59Brady PlouchaOLSR6'6"320
60John IannuzziOLSR6'4"320
61Zander BarthOLFR6'6"245
63Wyatt GraffinOLFR6'4"290
64Rory CallahanOLSO6'4"275
66Matthew NehfOLJR6'3"300
67Charlie MandabachOLFR6'6"260
68Landon HarperOLFR6'3"280
69Jacob BoothOLJR6'5"295
70Jacob RussellOLJR6'4"295
71Jacob TimmerOLFR6'7"260
72Trevor SwanOLSR6'5"300
73Dasan SmithOLSO6'6"295
76Martin KoivistoOLSR6'7"290
77Jack NolanOLFR6'4"260
78Talon SmithOLFR6'6"270
79Isaac HutchinsonOLFR6'4"310
0D.J. BennettDLSR6'5"260
1JJ DouglasDLSO6'5"245
5Korver DemmaDLJR6'3"245
6Hunter ZirkleDLJR6'3"245
32James ReinboldDLSR6'4"260
48Nathan VanTimmerenDLJR6'5"235
50Donovan BrownDLSO6'1"265
52Dominique MaiavaDLJR6'2"310
53Collin StareDLFR6'2"270
82Logan BorodychukDLSO6'5"255
91Aaron WeinerDLFR6'2"255
92Jaxon CherryDLJR6'1"260
93Evan WalkerDLFR6'3"220
95Joey VanWetzingaDLSO6'2"260
96Quavion BirdDLSO6'1"300
97Max Van FleetDLSR6'4"275
99Matthew PlumbDLFR6'4"240
8Victor EarlLBSO6'2"225
10Jeremiah AlstonLBJR6'0"230
11Xavier WhiteLBJR6'0"240
30Antonio Cherry Jr.LBSO6'1"235
33Elijah ReynoldsLBFR6'2"230
34Drew EsperLBFR6'1"220
35Mayson HitchensLBSR6'1"225
36Jeremiah McKenzieLBFR6'2"210
40Brett McCallaLBSR6'4"220
49Joshua AtiemoLBFR6'1"215
4Jaion JacksonDBJR5'10"170
7Ed ConoranDBSR5'11"190
12Donavan PhilordDBSO5'11"190
14Justin TaylorDBJR6'0"200
16Josiah BookerDBSO5'10"160
17Coen AliDBSO6'2"205
19Darrell Bryant Jr.DBSR5'11"215
20Jajuan JonesDBFR6'0"200
21Jamari AllenDBJR6'0"170
22Nolan AndersonDBFR5'10"185
23Kyle KrebsDBSR6'0"185
24Ty WilliamsDBSR6'2"170
25Trey LiebhardtDBJR6'0"190
26Matthew McKenzieDBJR6'3"200
27Tysen CampbellDBSO6'0"175
28Laaren CornwallDBFR6'0"185
29David WilliamsDBFR6'0"190
37Colton BenaitisDBFR6'2"195
38EShawn SuttonDBFR6'0"190
39Max MacklemDBFR6'0"190
41Keyton JonesDBSO5'9"185
43Kameran HaywardDBFR6'1"185
15Zac ChapeauPKSO6'2"210
38Caden VanHuisPKFR6'2"190
47Braxton DoakPKFR5'11"160
18Declan DuleyPJR6'2"220
51Zach CurtisLSFR6'3"210
57Connor RidderhoffLSSR6'3"250

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
10.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
24.0
scoring defense
Differential
-14.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
212.5#135
Yards / play
3.8#136
Passing yards / game
53.0#137
Rushing yards / game
159.5#76
First downs / game
12.5#134
3rd down %
29.6%#126
4th down %
83.3%#24
Time of possession
27:36#108
Defense
Yards allowed / game
291.5#51
Yards / play allowed
4.5#42
Pass yards allowed / game
141.5#26
Rush yards allowed / game
150.0#102
3rd down % allowed
44.4%#108
Sacks
3#79
Tackles for loss
5#128
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-1#89
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
5#124
Penalties / game
7.5#90
Penalty yards / game
73.0#113

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Central Michigan is in year 2 under Matt Drinkall. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at moving the ball on the ground.

Central Michigan has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #115
    projected
  • Offensemoving the ball on the ground
    #104
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
4.9 – 7.1
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
3.9
of 10 games
Bowl odds
33%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
63%
vs Wyoming
Toughest
2%
vs Miami

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (27%)Bowl eligible 33% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
TEJaden Allen, Myles Peters
-0.3 EPA
RBVaughn Blue, Brock Townsend +2
-1.2 EPA
WRLangston Lewis, Tayte Vanderleest +4
-3.6 EPA
QBAngel H Flores, Jadyn Glasser +1
-5.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAngel H Flores
~$434K
EPA +1.80.039/play45 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.053rd#134
Def0.1345th#77
Explosiveness
Off1.1835th#90
Def0.9797th#5
Field position
Off68.131st#95
Def67.885th#21
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off2.004th#133
Def3.6240th#83
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 5
Margin -1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
-0.301st#138
Off · rush
0.1653rd#65

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1653rd#65
Def0.1525th#104
Passing
Off-0.301st#138
Def0.0777th#33

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.32#37
2nd-level / open-field
0.94 / 1.02
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 11.8%
Havoc — total (def)
14.1%#103
Havoc — front 7 / DB
7.4% / 6.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.12
Def0.15
Pass downs
Off0.05
Def0.09

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.47#138-0.19#1300.27#112
Defense-0.05#670.01#440.47#87

Elo Trajectory

@New MexicoFinal
Elo rating 1321 → 1253-68 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.058th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.2226th
  • Offense success rate27%5th
  • Defense success rate allowed49%15th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs30%4th
  • Offense success — passing downs21%18th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs55%11th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs31%39th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.361st
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.9390th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.282nd
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.415th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.834th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.74th
  • Offense highlight yards0.6738th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.7646th
  • Offense power success0.6738th
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.0397th
  • Defense stuff rate0.073rd

Third down

  • Third down conversion18%6th
  • Third down distance faced7.331st
  • Third down conversion allowed54%12th
  • Third down distance forced5.814th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.296th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.224th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.7816th
  • Points per drive allowed4.111th
  • Average starting field position2636th
  • Opponent starting field position3318th
  • Available yards gained21%7th
  • Available yards allowed65%21st
  • Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.214th
  • Points allowed per opportunity4.118th
  • Three-and-out rate56%5th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%23rd

Roster

  • Returning usage42%49th
  • Returning EPA13559th
  • Team talent composite5409th
  • Recruiting class rank95.031st
  • Recruiting class points17931st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Run-first offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.047#134 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
-0.304#138
Rush EPA/play
+0.164#65
Explosiveness
1.185#90
Pts/opportunity
2.00#133
Success rate
29.2%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.468 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.131#77 · average
Havoc rate (total)
14.1%#103
Front-7 havoc
7.4%
DB havoc
6.7%
Big play rate allowed
0.969#5
Success rate allowed
45.2%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

10.0 PPG offense, 24.0 allowed — -14.0 margin/game
Points per game
10.0
Points allowed/game
24.0
Scoring margin/game
-14.0
Turnover margin
-1won 4 · lost 5
Production returning
54%
Talent rank (247)
#125

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE3thEXPLOSIVENESS35thFINISHING4thFIELD POS31thDEFENSE45thHAVOC26th50th100th
Offense
3th
Explosiveness
35th
Finishing
4th
Field Pos
31th
Defense
45th
Havoc
26th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-11.4
#116
Offense
-10.5
#128
Defense
+0.9
#80
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.784.11
Starting field positionown 25.8own 33.1
Available yards21.0%64.8%
Scoring opportunities66.7%100.0%
Points per opportunity1.174.11
Three-and-out rate55.6%11.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Central Michigan is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Central Michigan in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Northern IllinoisSP+ -22.3
Off EPA/play -0.056Def EPA/play +0.137Elo 1266
Match
99%
Washington StateSP+ -3.7
Off EPA/play -0.060Def EPA/play +0.147Elo 1601
Match
99%
LibertySP+ -7.2
Off EPA/play -0.027Def EPA/play +0.096Elo 1697
Match
98%
Oklahoma StateSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play -0.018Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1212
Match
97%
Eastern MichiganSP+ -15.6
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1353
Match
94%
UNLVSP+ +2.3
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.186Elo 1589
Match
94%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -0.9, #71 of 1282016: -4.4, #85 of 1282017: -4.6, #79 of 1302018: -21.9, #124 of 1302019: -0.3, #65 of 1302020: +1.8, #62 of 1242021: -1.9, #79 of 1302022: -11.3, #105 of 1312023: -18.9, #123 of 1332024: -18.4, #120 of 1342025: -6.9, #87 of 1362026: -11.4, #116 of 138
20152026
Now -11.4 · #116 of 138Best +1.8 in 2020Worst -21.9 in 2018

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
0.9+0.1
20257-65-3
54%
7.3-0.3
20244-82-6
33%
5.0-1.0
20235-73-5
42%
3.8+1.2
20224-83-5
33%
5.3-1.3
20219-46-2
69%
8.3+0.7
20203-33-3
50%
2.7+0.3
20198-66-3
57%
8.1-0.1
20181-110-8
8%
1.8-0.8
20178-56-2
62%
6.7+1.3

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.0%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.4-6.7. Wins the Mid-American in 2.8%.

If they finish with…

1.6%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.1 points since preseason — lost 7-38 to New Mexico against an expected margin of −18, so −13.5 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 1.6% where the average Mid-American team is 1.1%.
  • The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Central Michigan’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk7vs Western Michigan0.0
  • wk6at Ohio0.0
  • wk12at Buffalo0.0
  • wk3vs Wyoming0.0
  • wk10at Eastern Michigan0.0
  • wk8vs Miami (OH)0.0

Who to root for

Games Central Michigan is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk4Delaware over Virginia0.1
  • wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.1
  • wk11Purdue over Iowa0.0
  • wk2Utah State over Washington0.0
  • wk4Washington State over Arizona0.0
  • wk7Kentucky over Oklahoma0.0
The full playoff picture →

Mid-American

0-0 in league play, projected 3.9-4.17 of 13 by title odds
2.8%
Wins the Mid-American
7.7%
Reaches the title game

The Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk7Western Michigan at Central Michigan9.6
  • wk4Central Michigan at Miami7.7
  • wk6Central Michigan at Ohio5.7
  • wk12Central Michigan at Buffalo5.7

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →

If not the playoff, then

47%
Bowl eligible
45%
Placed in a bowl
0.0%
In the playoff
55%
Season over in November

Central Michigan is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.4% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Arizona Bowl9.8%
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl8.6%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl6.5%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl5.6%
  • Boca Raton Bowl4.4%
  • Cure Bowl3.0%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Central Michigan a player since 2010 — 19 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Central Michigan's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Cass TechnicalMI71
Brother RiceIL40
LincolnCA30
OxfordAL20
St. LouisHI20
Wheaton Warrenville SouthIL10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.