vs Charlotte · Wk 3Win prob 79%Model -12.1Schedule & Results
ECUEast CarolinaW27-24✗Wk 3vsCLTCharlotte-12.179%Wk 4@
NCSUNC State+17.913%Wk 6vs
ODUOld Dominion+3.242%Wk 7@
CCUCoastal Carolina-2.858%Wk 8vs
JMUJames Madison+6.434%Wk 9@
GASOGeorgia Southern+3.841%Wk 10vs
GASTGeorgia State-9.974%Wk 11@
MRSHMarshall+15.916%Wk 12vs
ULMUL Monroe-10.174%Wk 13@
USASouth Alabama+4.240%Team Leaders
Malachi SingletonPassing558 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Jaquari LewisRushing142 yds · 2 TD · 5.1 avg
Sam Pickett IIIReceiving9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
Alex MitchellTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on App State
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App State runs away from Maine, 55-3
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Malachi Singleton | QB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 8 | Henry Hasselbeck | QB | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Weston, MA |
| 10 | Gregory Fee | QB | SO | 6'5" | 215 | Matthews, NC |
| 15 | Bronzden Chaffin | QB | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Baxter, TN |
| 17 | Tommy Ulatowski | QB | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Chicago, IL |
| 2 | Kanye Roberts | RB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Teachey, NC |
| 5 | Jaquari Lewis | RB | SO | 5'10" | 205 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 11 | Ja'Quez Cross | RB | SR | 5'9" | 195 | Hampton, AR |
| 26 | Max Guest | RB | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Asheville, NC |
| 31 | Jaysen Angulo | RB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Charlotte, NC |
| 39 | Treyaun Webb | RB | SR | 5'11" | 220 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 48 | JMarion Burnette | RB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Andalusia, AL |
| 0 | Sam Pickett III | WR | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Jasper, TN |
| 1 | Nate Branch | WR | JR | 5'9" | 180 | Hopkins, SC |
| 6 | Chris Lofton | WR | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Columbia, SC |
| 12 | Sam Mbake | WR | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Atlanta, GA |
| 13 | Jackson Grier | WR | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 16 | Alexander Sanchez | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Loganville, GA |
| 18 | Kamauri Austin | WR | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Bryant, AR |
| 22 | Semaj Fleming | WR | SO | 5'8" | 175 | Orlando, FL |
| 28 | Cash Brown | WR | FR | 5'10" | 155 | Newberry, SC |
| 80 | Doopah Coleman | WR | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Savannah, GA |
| 81 | Derick Brazil | WR | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Kannapolis, NC |
| 82 | Zalin Ingram | WR | JR | 6'3" | 185 | Garner, NC |
| 83 | Dazmin James | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Clayton, NC |
| 84 | Ryan Morrison | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Baltimore, MD |
| 88 | Kabran Paul | WR | FR | 5'10" | 165 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 89 | Zach Taylor | WR | JR | 6'4" | 175 | Yoakum, TX |
| 7 | Darrin Fugitt | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Bolivar, MO |
| 19 | Jamel Howse | TE | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Newberry, SC |
| 45 | Gavin Barber | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Mooresville, NC |
| 85 | Luke Douglas | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | Jupiter, FL |
| 86 | Brice Williamson | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Hartwell, GA |
| 87 | Dillon Galloway | TE | SO | 6'4" | 245 | Rosman, NC |
| 50 | Eisa Evans | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 52 | Cayden Sweatt | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Bremen, GA |
| 55 | Ben Jones | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Orlando, FL |
| 56 | Jayden Thomas | OL | JR | 6'4" | 305 | Thomson, GA |
| 57 | Devon Manuel | OL | SR | 6'7" | 325 | Sunset, LA |
| 60 | Caden Muskus | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Chapin, SC |
| 63 | Scottland Dover | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Gaffney, SC |
| 64 | Jarvis Potts | OL | FR | 6'4" | 290 | Cornelius, NC |
| 65 | Mac Walters | OL | SR | 6'6" | 300 | Myrtle Beach, SC |
| 66 | Danny Stevens | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Charlotte, NC |
| 67 | Trent Ramsey | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Palm Harbor, FL |
| 68 | Lance Williams | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Alcoa, TN |
| 70 | Big Al Oliver | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Sarasota, FL |
| 72 | Nick Kashubara | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Greensboro, NC |
| 73 | Tre Glover | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 74 | Kamron Burris | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Dunwoody, GA |
| 75 | Greydon Grimes | OL | JR | 6'6" | 290 | China Spring, TX |
| 76 | Jahlon Harris | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Maumelle, AR |
| 77 | Daniel Davis | OL | SR | 6'6" | 300 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 78 | Tyriq Poindexter | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Roanoke, VA |
| 11 | Jordan Harris | DL | FR | 6'6" | 235 | Maumelle, AR |
| 19 | Christian Waring | DL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Spartanburg, SC |
| 33 | Aiden Benton | DL | SR | 6'2" | 250 | Hampton, GA |
| 41 | Caleb Sandstrom | DL | SR | 6'3" | 250 | Andover, MN |
| 44 | Manny Lewis | DL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 45 | Nick Campbell | DL | SR | 6'4" | 290 | Minneola, FL |
| 46 | Nick Avery | DL | SO | 6'5" | 280 | Benson, NC |
| 50 | Jehchys Brown | DL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Centralia, IL |
| 58 | Chris Doyle | DL | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Bluffton, SC |
| 84 | Sawyer Arnold | DL | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Charleston, SC |
| 88 | Kaden Ellis | DL | SO | 6'1" | 300 | Canton, GA |
| 93 | Keaton Braddock | DL | JR | 6'5" | 230 | Lamar, SC |
| 94 | Caleb Pitts | DL | SO | 6'2" | 265 | Auburn, AL |
| 95 | Ki'Shawn Harvey | DL | SR | 6'1" | 320 | Raleigh, NC |
| 96 | Ricky Lolohea | DL | JR | 6'3" | 310 | Euless, TX |
| 97 | Xavier Joseph | DL | FR | 6'2" | 255 | Covington, GA |
| 98 | Kelvin Crawford | DL | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 99 | Aaron Clark | DL | JR | 6'0" | 305 | Charleston, WV |
| 5 | Carson Sloan | LB | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Blackshear, GA |
| 10 | Colton Phares | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Beaufort, SC |
| 13 | Keshawn Thomas | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 15 | Alex Mitchell | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 16 | Kevin Henderson | LB | JR | 5'11" | 215 | Cartersville, GA |
| 22 | BJ Junius | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Carver Ranches, FL |
| 35 | Brooks Yurachek | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 49 | Randy Marion III | LB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Mooresville, NC |
| 52 | Michael Mcclenton | LB | FR | 6'0" | 230 | Orlando, FL |
| 0 | Juan Berchal | DB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Sanford, FL |
| 1 | Ja'Den McBurrows | DB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 2 | Micah Williams | DB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Savannah, GA |
| 3 | Ja'Cari Henderson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Sanford, FL |
| 4 | Jakob Gude | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 6 | Khalil Conley | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Asheville, NC |
| 7 | Devin Henderson | DB | JR | 5'10" | 200 | Cartersville, GA |
| 8 | Dre Walker | DB | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Denver, NC |
| 9 | Ahmad Robinson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 180 | St. Louis, MO |
| 12 | Cary Grant | DB | SR | 6'2" | 195 | New Orleans, LA |
| 17 | DaRon Wilson | DB | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Salem, VA |
| 18 | Syncere Berry | DB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 20 | Eric Adams | DB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Ronda, NC |
| 21 | Joe Reddish | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 24 | Josh Williams | DB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Dayton, OH |
| 26 | Kaleb Purdy | DB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | St. Louis, MO |
| 27 | Cam Fleming | DB | SR | 6'0" | 195 | North Chesterfield, VA |
| 30 | Dorrian Medley | DB | FR | 6'3" | 175 | Hickory, NC |
| 36 | Luke Lair | DB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Wake Forest, NC |
| 39 | Kavin White | DB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | — |
| 29 | Carter Everett | PK | SR | 5'10" | 195 | Boone, NC |
| 36 | Andrew Cummings | PK | FR | 5'8" | 195 | Mooresville, NC |
| 83 | James London | PK | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Miami, FL |
| 40 | Jaxson Dunn | P | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Bensalem, PA |
| 43 | Evan Mulcare | P | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Odessa, FL |
| 34 | Parker Stone | LS | SR | 6'4" | 220 | Grain Valley, MO |
| 42 | Cale Schiralli | LS | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Jupiter, FL |
| 47 | Hardy Butler | LS | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
App State is in year 2 under Dowell Loggains. The strengths are defensive, led by 28th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 118th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air, and they are 118th on early downs defensively.
App State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#118projected
- Defensefirst and second down#118projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#111projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.34#119
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.03 / 0.78
- Power / stuff (off)
- 83.3% / 23.1%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 19.4%#47
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.2% / 8.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.02#94 | 0.59#21 | 0.50#80 |
| Defense | 0.07#98 | 0.24#95 | 0.19#38 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.6194th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0776th
- Offense success rate65%96th
- Defense success rate allowed31%69th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs64%91st
- Offense success — passing downs67%98th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs36%73rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%66th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.248th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.245th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.155th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.834th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.678th
- Defense line yards allowed1.786th
- Offense highlight yards2.891st
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.3567th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.1081st
- Defense stuff rate0.3184th
Third down
- Third down conversion29%17th
- Third down distance faced5.682nd
- Third down conversion allowed43%34th
- Third down distance forced7.964th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3281st
- Net success rate — second half0.4096th
Roster
- Returning usage52%63rd
- Returning EPA10850th
- Team talent composite62239th
- Recruiting class rank59.058th
- Recruiting class points19958th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.585 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. App State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to App State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 38% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 45% | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 11.3 | -1.3 |
| 2020 | 9-3 | 6-2 | 75% | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 13-1 | 8-1 | 93% | 10.6 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 10.9 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 7-1 | 69% | 9.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 6.5-5.6. Wins the Sun Belt in 5.2%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 69%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.2 points since preseason.
- At 0 losses they are 69% where the average Sun Belt team is 80%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.5% of seasons, having won their league in 96% of those.
App State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at NC State2.3
- wk8vs James Madison1.7
- wk2at East Carolina1.6
- wk11at Marshall1.2
- wk6vs Old Dominion1.2
- wk9at Georgia Southern1.2
Who to root for
Games App State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Purdue over Penn State0.4
- wk6Northern Illinois over Air Force0.3
- wk10UTEP over Hawai'i0.3
- wk9UConn over Air Force0.3
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia0.3
- wk10Wyoming over UNLV0.2
Sun Belt
East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.2-3.88 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so App State can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8James Madison at App State14.8
- wk6Old Dominion at App State9.8
- wk9App State at Georgia Southern9.2
- wk11App State at Marshall8.9
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
App State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.1% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Salute to Veterans Bowl8.5%
- New Orleans Bowl8.3%
- 68 Ventures Bowl7.7%
- Frisco Bowl7.4%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl7.0%
- Boca Raton Bowl6.7%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent App State a player since 2010 — 15 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of App State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.