College football and the NFL, with our own line on every game — and six free ways to play, pick'em pools included. No entry fee, ever.
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Share of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons that end with each team inside the 12-team field. A forecast, not a standing — and not a bracket order.
Notre Dame82%▲ 4.3
Ohio State70%▼ 5.7
Miami69%▲ 14.9
Texas Tech61%▲ 2.0
LSU59%▲ 26.2
Oregon59%▼ 10.6
Texas57%▲ 19.2
Georgia57%▼ 1.3
Indiana54%▼ 4.9
Penn State44%▲ 10.9
Texas A&M35%▲ 3.3
Alabama31%▲ 8.0138 teams simulated · movement from Preseason to Week 1
Points per 100 plays above average, opponent-adjusted, offense and defense fitted together. Defense is signed so a negative number is points a team takes OFF the average — which is why the axis counts down as it goes up.
↑ better defense · CORE defense
↓ worse defense
138 teams · 2026 through week 1 · dashed lines mark the league median
70% of the trades, 73% of the money
On Oregon St., the crowd and the cash are on opposite sides — many small trades one way, the larger orders the other.
No entry fee on any of them, ever. These three need nobody but you.
Pick every game on the week's slate against the spread, in a pool or as your own public card. Graded Sunday night.
One marquee game a day. Take a side, keep the streak alive, lose it the moment you miss.
A salary-cap lineup for one week, priced off sportsbook lines. Build it, lock it, done — no draft, no roster to manage.
Plus Pools and Fantasy Leagues when you have people to play with. All 6, with what each one is →
5 min read
Carter Jones produced four of Nevada's eight explosive plays — Nevada was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
UCLA's Passing Game Went Backward. It Won the Second Half 21-0 — UCLA's second-half drop-backs netted minus seven yards. Offenses that do that lose by eleven; this one won the half 21-0, and the reason is the least repeatable number on the field.
New Mexico dismantles Central Michigan, 38-7 — A comfortable New Mexico win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
Hawai'i's offense vanished; Ashlock's return has to fix it — New Mexico State just scored 51 and owns nearly every unit edge; Hawai'i's answer is a 9-4 roster whose best receiver hasn't played yet.
Sam Houston's pass defense is the game's widest edge — Tulsa beat Oklahoma State with its defense, and the one thing its offense does best is the one thing Sam Houston is built to take away at home.
Florida International moved the ball and scored nine — Florida International's defense can erase Buffalo's big plays, but its own offense gained 34.6 yards per drive against South Florida and came away with nine points.
Duke's secondary is built to erase Illinois's deep game — Illinois scored 45 on Duke a year ago; the Duke pass defense arriving in Champaign now allows less through the air than any unit in the country.
Every game we called in 2025, bucketed by what we said and settled against what happened.
| We said they'd win | They won | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5% | 19% | 116 |
| 42.5% | 42.2% | 102 |
| 58% | 58.2% | 158 |
| 72.4% | 80.2% | 126 |
| 88.2% | 86.3% | 102 |
Brier 0.1889 against 0.2447 for guessing the base rate every time, over 604 games — so the model carries real information. The market's is 0.181 on the same games, so the book is still better calibrated than we are. We publish that number because the table above invites you to assume the opposite.
Every call, timestamped and graded →There is no closing line in your friend's twelve-person pool, and no vig. Winning it is a different problem from beating a sportsbook — and it is the one we solve.
Not the pick most likely to win the game — they are different, and the gap is the product. Survivor is one assignment problem, not fifteen; pick'em leverage depends on the field.
How the engine picks →Turn on Vegas mode and the spread you take is the spread you keep. Pick early and the number is yours; leave it floating and you take the close. Picking first actually means something.
Same rules, same grid, same standings — for either league. Most people run both and split across two sites for no reason.
What the sportsbook says and what the prediction market says, side by side, with the volume behind it. Not a consensus number scraped from nowhere.
Every call is logged before kickoff and graded against the final score — including the ones that lost, and including the part where beating the closing spread is a coin flip.
See the record →In order of how little it asks of you. The first two are worth doing on their own.
Pick of the Day takes twenty seconds and needs nobody. No account, nothing to set up, and no entry fee on any of it.
Everything you can play →Keeps a home page that knows which teams you care about, and can tell your phone when their game kicks off. No card, ever.
Sign up →Free pick'em for college or the NFL, one link to join, no app. Worth doing once you have people to play with — not before.
Start a pool →Share of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons that end with each team inside the 12-team field. A forecast, not a standing — and not a bracket order.
Notre Dame82%▲ 4.3Ohio State70%▼ 5.7Miami69%▲ 14.9Texas Tech61%▲ 2.0LSU59%▲ 26.2Oregon59%▼ 10.6Texas57%▲ 19.2Georgia57%▼ 1.3Indiana54%▼ 4.9Penn State44%▲ 10.9Texas A&M35%▲ 3.3Alabama31%▲ 8.0138 teams simulated · movement from Preseason to Week 1
Points per 100 plays above average, opponent-adjusted, offense and defense fitted together. Defense is signed so a negative number is points a team takes OFF the average — which is why the axis counts down as it goes up.
↑ better defense · CORE defense
↓ worse defense
138 teams · 2026 through week 1 · dashed lines mark the league median
70% of the trades, 73% of the money
On Oregon St., the crowd and the cash are on opposite sides — many small trades one way, the larger orders the other.
We re-simulated all eight opening games from what each team actually earned on the field. Three winners were worse than their score, two losers were better — and one team beat a more talented opponent by four touchdowns.
New Mexico State just scored 51 and owns nearly every unit edge; Hawai'i's answer is a 9-4 roster whose best receiver hasn't played yet.
4d ago · 7 min read
Tulsa beat Oklahoma State with its defense, and the one thing its offense does best is the one thing Sam Houston is built to take away at home.
4d ago · 7 min read
Every game on the board, with our number on it before kickoff.
Florida International's defense can erase Buffalo's big plays, but its own offense gained 34.6 yards per drive against South Florida and came away with nine points.
Illinois scored 45 on Duke a year ago; the Duke pass defense arriving in Champaign now allows less through the air than any unit in the country.
Nebraska's coverage takes away the phase Bowling Green needs most, and the only soft spot the Falcons can attack is a run defense ranked 140th.
Pittsburgh is favored on the back of a full season's work and a home field, but the biggest edge on the board, power football, belongs to UCF.
Oregon won this meeting 69-3 a year ago, and the one place Oklahoma State grades out well — its pass defense — is the one place Oregon would rather not be tested.
Navy won 42-32 in the last meeting, and nothing about Florida Atlantic's front or Navy's ground game has changed the shape of that afternoon.
What actually happened, and what the numbers said about it.
Nevada was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
UCLA's second-half drop-backs netted minus seven yards. Offenses that do that lose by eleven; this one won the half 21-0, and the reason is the least repeatable number on the field.
A comfortable New Mexico win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Nobody had UNLV circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the race.
Original research — ratings, efficiency, and where the market is wrong.
