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Gridpex

CORE Ratings

Analysis

How good each team is per play, once you account for who they played and the situations they were in. Zero is an average team; higher is better. points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Built from 94,257 plays across 773 games.

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Offense against defense

Offense across, defense up. Best teams are top right. Both numbers are adjusted for who each team played, so a soft schedule does not flatter anyone.

-20+0+20-20+0+20CORE offense (points per 100 plays)← worsebetter →CORE defense (vs average)← worsebetter →
130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = -0.43(r² = 0.18)

Where efficiency and the poll disagree

The gap between a team’s CORE rank and its AP rank. This is the column worth arguing about — it is where one of the two measures is about to be shown up.

#TeamCOREOffenseDefense
11–3LSU+50.8+34.1#1-16.8#6
21–4Ohio State+49.6+29.7#2-19.9#3
32–5Clemson+44.0+16.4#7-27.6#1
43–5Alabama+41.5+26.7#3-14.8#9
55–6Wisconsin+33.0+18.4#5-14.7#10
66–13Oklahoma+27.0+25.6#4-1.4#57
76–16Georgia+26.3+8.5#22-17.8#4
86–17Utah+25.6+10.1#17-15.4#8
96–17Auburn+25.5+4.0#38-21.4#2
106–19Oregon+23.9+8.0#26-15.9#7
116–19Minnesota+22.3+16.6#6-5.7#36
126–19Michigan+21.4+4.5#36-16.9#5
136–20Florida+21.1+10.4#15-10.7#21
147–20Notre Dame+20.9+7.4#29-13.5#14
157–20Penn State+20.8+8.5#23-12.3#15
168–23Memphis+20.1+16.0#8-4.1#42
1710–24Navy+18.9+13.3#9-5.6#37
1810–24UCF+18.8+9.3#19-9.5#24
1913–33Texas A&M+15.3+8.6#21-6.7#32
2016–33Baylor+14.8+0.8#58-14.0#12
2116–35Air Force+14.7+11.5#11-3.2#45
2216–33Texas+14.7+12.1#10-2.6#50
2317–36Iowa State+14.2+9.2#20-5.0#41
2419–37Iowa+12.8+1.3#54-11.5#18
2519–37Cincinnati+12.5+0.9#56-11.6#17
2619–38USC+12.2+11.4#12-0.7#60
2719–43Boise State+11.3+4.0#39-7.2#31
2819–44Michigan State+10.8-3.0#85-13.8#13
2919–44North Carolina+10.6+11.3#13+0.7#65
3019–44App State+10.2+1.5#53-8.7#27
3119–45Louisiana+9.8+10.8#14+0.9#67
3219–46Tulane+9.7+8.1#25-1.7#54
3320–49TCU+9.0-2.7#82-11.8#16
3420–49Washington+9.0-0.8#68-9.8#23
3523–49Miami+8.7-2.1#75-10.8#20
3624–54Oklahoma State+7.6+5.0#35-2.6#49
3725–58Missouri+6.7-3.7#90-10.4#22
3826–58Tennessee+6.5-1.4#73-7.9#29
3927–58Pittsburgh+6.3-7.7#107-14.1#11
4026–62Mississippi State+6.1+7.6#28+1.5#71
4127–58SMU+6.0+4.2#37-1.8#53
4227–61Florida Atlantic+5.7+0.2#61-5.4#39
4327–67Virginia Tech+5.4+1.8#50-3.6#43
4430–67Ole Miss+4.5+3.5#42-1.1#58
4531–68Indiana+4.3+5.7#31+1.4#70
4631–69Kansas State+4.0+1.8#49-2.2#52
4733–69Louisville+3.7+10.4#16+6.7#97
4835–69Western Kentucky+3.3-5.0#93-8.2#28
4936–69Tulsa+2.9-2.7#83-5.6#38
5035–69Buffalo+2.9-2.1#78-5.0#40
5136–71Virginia+2.3+3.7#40+1.4#69
5236–71Temple+2.2-6.6#102-8.8#25
5336–71Wyoming+2.2-4.3#92-6.4#33
5437–77Louisiana Tech+1.8-1.0#70-2.8#47
5537–79Arizona State+1.3-0.2#64-1.5#55
5637–81Kentucky+1.1+0.4#59-0.8#59
5738–81San Diego State+0.9-10.4#115-11.3#19
5839–82Washington State+0.7+9.4#18+8.7#106
5940–82California+0.7-5.6#97-6.3#34
6042–84Nebraska+0.2-1.3#72-1.5#56
6142–84BYU+0.1+2.2#47+2.1#72
6242–86South Carolina+0.0-7.6#105-7.6#30
6343–84Florida State-0.1-2.9#84-2.8#48
6443–88UAB-0.2-6.3#101-6.1#35
6544–88Central Michigan-0.3+0.9#55+1.3#68
6644–89Fresno State-0.5+1.8#52+2.2#73
6745–90Georgia Southern-1.3-3.5#88-2.2#51
6847–91Boston College-1.8+8.1#24+9.9#113
6951–97Southern Miss-3.1-3.8#91-0.7#61
7051–97Oregon State-3.1+3.6#41+6.8#98
7152–98Florida International-3.6-0.4#66+3.2#79
7253–98Colorado State-3.6-0.8#69+2.8#77
7355–98Hawai'i-3.7+7.3#30+11.0#115
7454–99Texas Tech-3.7+0.8#57+4.6#88
7555–98Arkansas State-3.9-1.1#71+2.8#78
7654–102Houston-4.0+2.1#48+6.1#95
7755–102UL Monroe-4.0+5.5#32+9.6#110
7855–102Colorado-4.1+3.0#44+7.1#99
7956–102Marshall-4.4-5.0#94-0.6#64
8056–104West Virginia-4.6-5.2#95-0.6#62
8158–104Ohio-4.9+7.7#27+12.5#119
8260–104Northwestern-5.2-14.0#123-8.8#26
8363–104Illinois-5.5-6.1#99-0.6#63
8463–105Ball State-5.8-0.7#67+5.1#90
8565–105Wake Forest-5.8-3.5#87+2.3#74
8663–106Liberty-5.9-2.5#80+3.4#81
8765–105Stanford-6.0-2.1#77+3.9#83
8867–106Western Michigan-6.2+0.0#62+6.3#96
8967–106Troy-6.7+5.4#33+12.2#118
9068–106Army-7.4-3.0#86+4.4#85
9168–106Charlotte-7.5+5.0#34+12.6#120
9269–107Middle Tennessee-7.8+3.5#43+11.3#116
9369–107Purdue-8.0-2.1#76+5.9#93
9469–107Utah State-8.1-5.7#98+2.4#75
9569–108Arizona-8.2-2.7#81+5.5#91
9669–110South Florida-8.6-7.7#106+0.9#66
9771–110San José State-9.1+1.8#51+10.9#114
9871–111North Texas-9.4-5.5#96+4.0#84
9973–111Georgia State-9.5+2.4#45+11.9#117
10071–111Kansas-9.6-2.2#79+7.5#103
10179–111Miami (OH)-9.7-12.6#117-2.8#46
10281–112UCLA-10.3-1.5#74+8.8#107
10380–113Duke-10.4-13.8#122-3.3#44
10483–114Eastern Michigan-11.1+2.3#46+13.4#121
10585–118Coastal Carolina-11.8-3.5#89+8.2#105
10691–123Georgia Tech-13.5-6.3#100+7.2#100
10794–122Kent State-13.8+0.4#60+14.1#123
10896–123Toledo-14.3-0.3#65+14.0#122
10997–123Nevada-14.4-8.9#111+5.6#92
11097–123Northern Illinois-15.1-7.8#108+7.3#102
111102–123Syracuse-15.7-8.4#109+7.3#101
112102–123Arkansas-16.4-7.5#104+8.9#108
113104–123NC State-16.5-12.9#118+3.6#82
114104–124Maryland-16.9-13.7#121+3.2#80
115105–124South Alabama-17.2-14.5#125+2.7#76
116105–124UNLV-17.3-9.5#114+7.8#104
117106–124Rice-17.8-13.3#119+4.4#86
118106–125East Carolina-18.0+0.0#63+18.0#128
119106–125Rutgers-18.7-14.2#124+4.5#87
120106–125Vanderbilt-18.7-9.2#112+9.6#111
121106–125New Mexico-19.3-9.4#113+9.9#112
122106–125Texas State-19.6-13.5#120+6.1#94
123114–126New Mexico State-22.9-7.1#103+15.8#126
124117–126UTSA-23.8-8.8#110+15.0#125
125123–128UTEP-28.4-11.8#116+16.6#127
126125–128Old Dominion-30.3-25.4#129+4.9#89
127125–129UConn-31.4-17.0#126+14.4#124
128127–130Bowling Green-37.6-19.0#127+18.6#129
129128–130Akron-39.0-30.1#130+9.0#109
130130–131Massachusetts-55.8-21.6#128+34.2#130

Four ways to measure a team, and where each fails

This site publishes all four. That is not indecision — each answers a different question, and where they disagree is the information, not the noise.

Results · Elo, SRS

Measures: who beat whom, and by how much

Fails when: It cannot tell a good team from a lucky one. Elo moves on outcomes, and a season is twelve of them — a team that won three one-score games is rated as though it earned all three.

Efficiency · CORE, SP+

Measures: how good each play was, adjusted for situation and opponent

Fails when: It is indifferent to winning. A team can be the most efficient in the country and lose to the second-most because a punt was blocked, and the rating will not notice, because the rating is not about that.

The market · closing spreads

Measures: everything anyone knows, priced

Fails when: It is not published as a rating and it has no memory. It is the sharpest number available on any single game and it will not tell you who the fourth-best team in the country is.

Human polls · AP, coaches

Measures: reputation, weighted by results

Fails when: Inertia and brand. A preseason ranking survives contact with reality for weeks, and a team that starts unranked has to be much better than one that started at 12 to pass it.

How CORE is computed

  1. Remove the situation. For each play, predict its EPA from the game state alone — period, seconds left, score margin, down, distance, field position, home/away/neutral, pass or rush. No team identity is in those features, so what the model learns is what an average offense does from that spot. The residual is the part the situation does not explain.
  2. Remove the opponent. Offenses and defenses form one connected network across a season. Fit both sides at once — residual ~ offense(team) + defense(opponent) — by ridge regression over team dummies. Ridge rather than plain least squares because in September the schedule graph is barely connected, and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat up an overmatched opener.
  3. Report in points per 100 plays. Offense is points created above average; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is the difference.

Excluded: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS, special teams, non-scrimmage plays.

How sure is any of this? The small range under each rank is where a team would sit if its rating were one standard error better, or worse, than the estimate — about a two-in-three chance of covering the truth. It is wide on purpose: a season is a dozen games, and most of this table is one good afternoon away from a different order. Those bars are checked rather than claimed: fitting 2025’s odd and even weeks separately and standardising every team’s difference by its own two errors gives a spread of 0.93 on offense and 0.94 on defense, where 1.00 is exactly right-sized. It covers sampling error only — not the shrinkage the ridge applies on purpose, and not a team that changed in November.

What this is not. Not a prediction, not a forecast, not a projection of next week. It is a measurement of what happened per play, adjusted. The model that forecasts games is a different object and lives on the model record, where its actual edge is stated with the same bluntness.