@ Texas Tech · Wk 3Win prob 8%Model +19.4Schedule & Results
ORSTOregon StateW33-20✓Wk 2vsSOUTSouthernW77-6✓Wk 3@TTUTexas Tech+19.48%Wk 4@
GASOGeorgia Southern-21.891%Wk 5vs
UCFUCF-16.786%Wk 6@
KSUKansas State-3.960%Wk 7vs
OKSTOklahoma State-19.390%Wk 8@
UTAHUtah+1.447%Wk 10vs
CINCincinnati-15.684%Wk 11@
COLOColorado-12.077%Wk 12@
WVUWest Virginia-16.685%Wk 13vs
BAYBaylor-12.178%Team Leaders
Conner WeigmanPassing425 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
Makhi HughesRushing142 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 avg
Amare ThomasReceiving11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
Kentrell WebbTackles9 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Houston
All news →Conner Weigman produced 11 of Houston's 13 explosive plays
The 4.3 points between our Houston number and the market are offseason arithmetic
Roster · 116 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conner Weigman | QB | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Cypress, TX |
| 5 | Keisean Henderson | QB | FR | 6'5" | 195 | Houston, TX |
| 13 | Canon Toon | QB | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Houston, TX |
| 15 | Jake Sock | QB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Pearland, TX |
| 17 | Luke Carney | QB | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Mesquite, TX |
| 18 | Ryan Smith | QB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 6 | Re'Shaun Sanford II | RB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Harker Heights, TX |
| 16 | JayShon Ridgle | RB | JR | 6'0" | 197 | Athens, AL |
| 21 | Makhi Hughes | RB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Birmingham, AL |
| 23 | John Hebert | RB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Houston, TX |
| 25 | DJ Butler | RB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Mobile, AL |
| 32 | Nehemiah Warmate | RB | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Denton, TX |
| 37 | Zane Smith | RB | SO | 5'9" | 235 | Fulshear, TX |
| 0 | Amare Thomas | WR | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
| 2 | Koby Young | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | New Orleans, LA |
| 3 | Harvey Broussard III | WR | SR | 6'3" | 185 | Saint Martinville, LA |
| 4 | Trent Walker | WR | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Portland, OR |
| 8 | Tyson Turner | WR | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Bryan, TX |
| 10 | Jaquise Martin | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Bryan, TX |
| 12 | Stephon Johnson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 14 | Muizz Tounkara | WR | SO | 6'3" | 210 | League City, TX |
| 22 | Dorian Barnes | WR | FR | 5'8" | 155 | Houston, TX |
| 27 | Braeden Robinson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Houston, TX |
| 46 | Jeffrey Strozier Jr. | WR | SR | 5'6" | 160 | Kansas City, MO |
| 81 | Jeremiah Bushnell | WR | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Iowa, LA |
| 82 | Jack Newhouse | WR | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Austin, TX |
| 83 | Keavon Roberts | WR | FR | 6'5" | 185 | Port Arthur, TX |
| 84 | Samuel Padgitt | WR | SR | 6'2" | 195 | San Antonio, TX |
| 9 | Patrick Overmyer | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Kingwood, TX |
| 19 | Kaleb Thomas | TE | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Houston, TX |
| 85 | Traville Frederick Jr. | TE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Jeanerette, LA |
| 86 | Wyatt Herbel | TE | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Cypress, TX |
| 87 | Luke McGary | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Plano, TX |
| 88 | Jacory Thurman | TE | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Houston, TX |
| 89 | Jaivion Martin | TE | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 50 | Aaron Wolford | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Groves, TX |
| 52 | Anthony Boswell | OL | JR | 6'2" | 301 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 53 | Ronnell McLain | OL | JR | 6'4" | 325 | Desoto, TX |
| 54 | Rhett Gray | OL | FR | 6'8" | 310 | Weatherford, TX |
| 55 | Demetris Dean II | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Jasper, TX |
| 56 | Shadre Hurst | OL | SR | 6'2" | 304 | Cartersville, GA |
| 57 | Hayden Wright | OL | SO | 6'5" | 285 | Kingwood, TX |
| 62 | Ricardo Cordova | OL | JR | 6'0" | 270 | Pasadena, TX |
| 66 | McKenzie Agnello | OL | SR | 6'4" | 314 | Copperas Cove, TX |
| 67 | Hingano Hautau | OL | SR | 6'6" | 325 | San Jose, CA |
| 68 | Sean Terrell | OL | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Spring, TX |
| 70 | Larry Crawford | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Monroe, GA |
| 71 | Noah Abebe | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Friendswood, TX |
| 72 | RJ Lee | OL | SO | 6'8" | 335 | Houston, TX |
| 73 | Drew Terrill | OL | SR | 6'6" | 300 | Lebanon, IN |
| 77 | Troy Pless | OL | FR | 6'5" | 320 | Killeen, TX |
| 79 | Alvin Ebosele | OL | SR | 6'6" | 312 | Coppell, TX |
| 9 | Ashton Porter | DL | SR | 6'3" | 280 | Cypress, TX |
| 18 | Khalil Laufau | DL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 45 | Chance Bryant | DL | SO | 6'2" | 255 | Fulshear, TX |
| 47 | DK Mays | DL | SO | 6'4" | 250 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 49 | Darius Washington | DL | SO | 6'6" | 265 | Mansfield, TX |
| 50 | Ejiro Egodogbare | DL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Milton, MA |
| 51 | Hunter Jones | DL | SR | 6'2" | 280 | Houston, TX |
| 55 | Isaiah Broughton | DL | FR | 6'4" | 340 | Houston, TX |
| 88 | Xavier Fleming | DL | FR | 6'1" | 305 | Lewisville, TX |
| 90 | De'Marion Thomas | DL | SR | 6'2" | 340 | Tulsa, OK |
| 91 | Kaleb Walker | DL | FR | 6'2" | 275 | Lindale, TX |
| 92 | Travis Buhake | DL | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Arlington, TX |
| 94 | Carmello Brooks | DL | SO | 6'3" | 275 | Katy, TX |
| 96 | Eythan Thompson | DL | SO | 6'3" | 330 | Waco, TX |
| 98 | Myles Parker | DL | SR | 6'1" | 325 | Snellville, GA |
| 99 | Quindario Lee | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Mc Kenzie, AL |
| 1 | Jaden Yates | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Columbus, OH |
| 4 | Brandon Mack II | LB | SR | 6'4" | 255 | Montgomery, AL |
| 10 | Latreveon McCutchin | LB | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Austin, TX |
| 12 | Sione Fotu | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 17 | Christian Brathwaite | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Cypress, TX |
| 19 | Miller Malone | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Mont Belvieu, TX |
| 25 | Carmycah Glass | LB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Monroe, LA |
| 30 | Richmond Ugochukwu | LB | SO | 6'2" | 220 | Richardson, TX |
| 31 | Tristan Jackson | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 34 | Bryson Castile | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Arlington, TX |
| 35 | Tyler Covar | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Magnolia, TX |
| 36 | Liam Riley | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Weatherford, TX |
| 43 | Sheldon Rice | LB | SO | 6'3" | 250 | Fulshear, TX |
| 48 | Grayson Boeker | LB | SO | 6'3" | 220 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 53 | Tanner Covar | LB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Magnolia, TX |
| 0 | Javion White | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Winnsboro, LA |
| 2 | Jalen Mayo | DB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Hampton, VA |
| 3 | JD Rhym | DB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Valdosta, GA |
| 5 | Will James | DB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Grand Bay, AL |
| 6 | Jordan Allen | DB | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Lafayette, LA |
| 8 | Kentrell Webb | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Katy, TX |
| 13 | C.J. Douglas | DB | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Leeds, AL |
| 14 | Paris Melvin Jr. | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Cypress, TX |
| 20 | James Henderson III | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Houston, TX |
| 21 | Myles Rowser | DB | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Detroit, MI |
| 22 | Zaylen Cormier | DB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 23 | Alvin Williamson Jr. | DB | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Cibolo, TX |
| 24 | Keany Parks | DB | SR | 6'1" | 180 | Kenosha, WI |
| 26 | Jamaal Shaw | DB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Orange, TX |
| 27 | Mudassir Abdullah | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | West Columbia, TX |
| 28 | Kenzy West | DB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Flowood, MS |
| 29 | Javen Holmes | DB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 32 | Isaac Richardson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Houston, TX |
| 33 | Johnsley Barbas | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 37 | Elijah Young | DB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Klein, TX |
| 38 | Johnathan Joseph Jr. | DB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 40 | Kvion Roberson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Monroe, LA |
| 41 | Thompson Bennett | DB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Austin, TX |
| 42 | Austin Anderson | DB | JR | 6'3" | 185 | Rosenberg, TX |
| 44 | Rodney Thomas II | DB | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Humble, TX |
| 49 | Jonathan Dimas | PK | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Houston, TX |
| 94 | Evan Noel | PK | SO | 6'1" | 165 | Bay St. Louis, MS |
| 96 | Zac Yoakam | PK | SR | 5'8" | 195 | Upper Arlington, OH |
| 62 | Jack Raney | P | SR | 6'3" | 210 | San Jose, CA |
| 91 | Liam Dougherty | P | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Geelong, VIC |
| 47 | Anthony Saragusa | LS | JR | 6'2" | 265 | Houston, TX |
| 64 | Jack Carson-Wentz | LS | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Canton, GA |
| 69 | Weston Edwards | LS | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Valdosta, GA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Houston runs it: Willie Fritz's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 112th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#10projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#24projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#112projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.33#44
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.20 / 1.75
- Power / stuff (off)
- 85.7% / 15.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 21.6%#32
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.1% / 13.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.01#93 | 0.46#31 | 0.83#34 |
| Defense | 0.18#119 | 0.24#95 | 0.10#25 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3164th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1829th
- Offense success rate50%66th
- Defense success rate allowed41%39th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%50th
- Offense success — passing downs48%85th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%38th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs31%41st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.358th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.328th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9436th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.161st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.364th
- Defense line yards allowed2.843rd
- Offense highlight yards1.874th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
- Offense power success0.8673rd
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.1555th
- Defense stuff rate0.052nd
Third down
- Third down conversion54%72nd
- Third down distance faced7.236th
- Third down conversion allowed27%74th
- Third down distance forced7.455th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1150th
- Net success rate — second half0.0647th
Drives
- Points per drive3.174th
- Points per drive allowed2.149th
- Average starting field position3060th
- Opponent starting field position2384th
- Available yards gained65%79th
- Available yards allowed45%62nd
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.165th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.043rd
- Three-and-out rate18%73rd
- Three-and-outs forced20%38th
Roster
- Returning usage60%72nd
- Returning EPA24389th
- Team talent composite69659th
- Recruiting class rank38.073rd
- Recruiting class points21973rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.263 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 44.3%
- Expected, given the spots
- 42.4%
- Over expected
- +1.9
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Houston is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Houston in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 10-3 | 6-3 | 77% | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 33% | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 8-1 | 86% | 10.8 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 38% | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 58% | 8.3 | -1.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.5-4.6. Top-four bye in 1.0%. Wins the Big 12 in 3.2%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 2.5 points since preseason — won 33-20 over Oregon State against an expected margin of +15, so −2.4 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 25% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.
Houston’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Texas Tech20.4
- wk8at Utah12.2
- wk6at Kansas State11.7
- wk11at Colorado9.5
- wk10vs Cincinnati8.9
- wk13vs Baylor8.7
Who to root for
Games Houston is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech2.2
- wk9Arizona over Texas Tech1.5
- wk13TCU over Texas Tech1.4
- wk12Baylor over Texas Tech1.4
- wk5Colorado over Texas Tech1.4
- wk11Oregon State over Boise State1.3
Big 12
0-0 in league play, projected 4.7-4.36 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk3Houston at Texas Tech11.8
- wk8Houston at Utah6.1
- wk6Houston at Kansas State5.8
- wk11Houston at Colorado4.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Houston is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 5.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Texas Bowl9.6%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl9.3%
- Alamo Bowl9.1%
- Liberty Bowl8.9%
- Rate Bowl8.1%
- Independence Bowl7.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 14 have sent Houston a player since 2010 — 39 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Houston's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.