Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Marcus StokesPassing411 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
Jaylin CarterRushing280 yds · 5 TD · 8.2 avg
Braylon BurnsideReceiving2 rec · 74 yds · 1 TD
Zach RuffinTackles18 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 108 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Marcus Stokes | QB | JR | 6'2" | 209 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 3 | Air Noland | QB | SO | 6'2" | 214 | College Park, GA |
| 9 | Denzel Gardner | QB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Waldorf, MD |
| 15 | Gavin Owens | QB | FR | 6'5" | 199 | Rabun Gap, GA |
| 16 | Grant Troutman | QB | FR | 6'6" | 189 | Collierville, TN |
| 6 | Jaylin Carter | RB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Valdosta, GA |
| 7 | Dallan Hayden | RB | SR | 5'11" | 208 | Memphis, TN |
| 22 | Eric Perry | RB | FR | 5'10" | 194 | Southaven, MS |
| 23 | Jordan Thompson | RB | FR | 6'0" | 201 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 28 | Manny Covey | RB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Starke, FL |
| 30 | Isaiah McGill | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Nashville, TN |
| 1 | Tychaun Chapman | WR | SR | 5'9" | 178 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 4 | Terrell Timmons Jr. | WR | SR | 6'2" | 184 | Greensboro, NC |
| 5 | Stonka Burnside | WR | SO | 6'1" | 192 | Starkville, MS |
| 8 | Bryce Dorsey | WR | SO | 5'10" | 186 | Hitchcock, TX |
| 11 | Jermane Hayes | WR | SO | 5'10" | 160 | Orange City, FL |
| 12 | Brady Kluse | WR | JR | 6'2" | 199 | Acworth, GA |
| 13 | Jemyri Davis | WR | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 17 | Alante Brown | WR | SR | 5'11" | 196 | Chicago, IL |
| 19 | Jaylin Taylor | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Oxford, AL |
| 21 | Zechariah Jenkins | WR | FR | 6'1" | 192 | Laurel, MS |
| 80 | Joshua Joseph | WR | FR | 5'11" | 191 | Miami, FL |
| 82 | Justice Spann | WR | SO | 6'2" | 218 | Chandler, AZ |
| 85 | Jamar Jenkins | WR | FR | 5'10" | 166 | Memphis, TN |
| 0 | Hunter Tipton | TE | SR | 6'5" | 241 | Timpson, TX |
| 10 | TJ Johnson | TE | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 14 | Aidan O'Callaghan | TE | SO | 6'3" | 231 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 81 | Marshall Smith Jr. | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Collierville, TN |
| 86 | Jonathan Harding | TE | FR | 6'3" | 241 | The Villages, FL |
| 87 | Garrett Essner | TE | FR | 6'6" | 236 | Columbia, MO |
| 50 | Koby Keenum | OL | JR | 6'3" | 313 | Florence, AL |
| 55 | Maarten Woudsma | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Amersfoort |
| 56 | Jordan Foy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 340 | Pleasant Grove, AL |
| 58 | Bryce Vaughn | OL | FR | 6'7" | 278 | Nettleton, MS |
| 59 | Aaron Karas | OL | SR | 6'5" | 322 | Arvada, CO |
| 66 | Carde Smith | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Mobile, AL |
| 70 | Jabarius Oliver | OL | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Louise, MS |
| 71 | Xavier Allen | OL | SR | 6'5" | 299 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 72 | Eddie Alford | OL | FR | 6'4" | 323 | Douglasville, GA |
| 73 | Phillip Gray | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Nashville, TN |
| 74 | Richard Thigpen | OL | FR | 6'6" | 349 | Nashville, TN |
| 75 | Skyler Grant | OL | SR | 6'2" | 308 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 76 | Parker Mitchell | OL | SR | 6'3" | 299 | Alabaster, AL |
| 77 | Brian Grant | OL | SR | 6'7" | 318 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 78 | Riley McGehee | OL | JR | 6'5" | 295 | New Hope, AL |
| 79 | Chance Holloman | OL | SR | 6'4" | 286 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Joseph Head Jr. | DL | JR | 6'4" | 228 | Lexington, MS |
| 10 | Justin Wallace | DL | SR | 6'2" | 250 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 11 | Jaden McKinney | DL | SR | 6'4" | 285 | Collierville, TN |
| 13 | Stone Chaney | DL | SO | 6'4" | 254 | Novi, MI |
| 14 | J'Mond Tapp | DL | SR | 6'3" | 256 | Donaldsonville, LA |
| 15 | Elijah Kinsler | DL | SO | 6'3" | 256 | Oradell, NJ |
| 18 | Xavier Miles | DL | JR | 6'3" | 315 | Orange, NJ |
| 35 | DeAngelo Thompson | DL | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Miami, FL |
| 44 | Evan Harvey | DL | FR | 6'2" | 253 | Tyrone, GA |
| 45 | Gary Green | DL | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Fairburn, GA |
| 54 | Amir Leonard-Jean Charles | DL | FR | 6'4" | 298 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 56 | KJ Miles | DL | SR | 6'4" | 289 | Orange, NJ |
| 90 | Taylor Burton | DL | SR | 6'2" | 283 | Memphis, TN |
| 92 | JaQuentin Madison | DL | FR | 6'2" | 271 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 93 | Jabari Ishmael | DL | SR | 6'5" | 264 | Miami, FL |
| 94 | J'mari Monette | DL | SR | 6'3" | 274 | Alexandria, LA |
| 95 | Eric Thomas | DL | FR | 6'5" | 360 | Miami, FL |
| 97 | Jacari Gatling | DL | FR | 6'4" | 291 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 99 | Devan Lowe | DL | SR | 6'2" | 367 | Kansas City, MO |
| 9 | Mike Montgomery | LB | SR | 6'3" | 247 | Seattle, WA |
| 16 | Jah'Keevi Garnett | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Charlotte, NC |
| 22 | Zach Ruffin | LB | SO | 6'4" | 199 | Philadelphia, MS |
| 23 | Jayden Parrish | LB | SO | 6'1" | 237 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 25 | JJ Clayton | LB | SO | 6'2" | 210 | Perry, FL |
| 33 | Donovan Mathena | LB | SR | 6'0" | 235 | Collierville, TN |
| 34 | Kadan Spratling | LB | FR | 6'1" | 240 | Carrollton, GA |
| 37 | Jacory Johnson | LB | SO | 6'0" | 207 | Humble, TX |
| 39 | Desmond Cox | LB | FR | 5'11" | 225 | Red Oak, TX |
| 40 | Trey McDonald | LB | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 41 | Tylon Nash | LB | SR | 6'2" | 231 | Memphis, TN |
| 42 | Christian Thatcher | LB | FR | 6'2" | 207 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 43 | Wolf Walker | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Atlanta, GA |
| 46 | Elijah Fernandez | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Franklin, TN |
| 1 | Ellis Ellis Jr. | CB | SR | 6'0" | 187 | Hendersonville, TN |
| 2 | Chauncey Logan Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Salem, VA |
| 7 | Darius Malcolm Jr. | CB | SO | 5'9" | 181 | Atlanta, GA |
| 8 | Anthony Richard Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 193 | Lafayette, LA |
| 19 | Ethan Wilder | CB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Gordo, AL |
| 26 | Jaylen Lewis | CB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 31 | Johnny Moody | CB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Birmingham, AL |
| 32 | Dilan Williamson | CB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Kenosha, WI |
| 38 | Xavier Thompson | CB | FR | 6'1" | 199 | Cantonment, FL |
| 49 | Josiah Brown | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Pensacola, FL |
| 0 | Ian Foster | S | JR | 5'10" | 181 | Brundidge, AL |
| 3 | Dylan Smith | S | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Little Elm, TX |
| 5 | Ahmere Foster | S | SR | 5'10" | 173 | Miami, FL |
| 6 | Dylan King | S | SR | 6'2" | 188 | Nashville, TN |
| 12 | Beni Mwamba | S | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Elsmere, KY |
| 17 | Chase Pinkston | S | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 21 | Khalil Foster | S | FR | 5'11" | 182 | Brundidge, AL |
| 24 | Nick Burden | S | FR | 6'0" | 189 | Hampton, GA |
| 27 | Jordan Bell | S | SO | 6'2" | 189 | Munford, TN |
| 28 | Charlie Harrell | S | JR | 6'0" | 199 | Bartlett, TN |
| 29 | Tim Sims | S | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Hampton, GA |
| 36 | Jamariez Robinson | S | SO | 5'9" | 167 | Lilburn, GA |
| 33 | Oliver Castaneda | PK | SO | 5'8" | 181 | Hiram, GA |
| 40 | Tarik Ahmetbasic | PK | JR | 6'2" | 204 | Clinton Township, MI |
| 80 | Philippe Laforge | PK | SO | 6'1" | 206 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 30 | Harrison Tuck | P | SR | 6'2" | 236 | Mt. Crawford, SA |
| 32 | Jake Snyder | P | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Cumming, GA |
| 34 | Weston Simmons | LS | JR | 5'10" | 213 | Mason, OH |
| 42 | Ben Majors | LS | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Huntersville, NC |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at running it. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 104th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#20projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#31projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
- Defensethrowing it#104projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 8 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.75#25
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.43 / 2.31
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 10.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 17.7%#60
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 12.1% / 5.7%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.42#14 | 0.21#70 | 0.70#54 |
| Defense | 0.12#109 | 0.10#71 | 0.22#46 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3972nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1145th
- Offense success rate48%59th
- Defense success rate allowed42%34th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%64th
- Offense success — passing downs34%53rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs53%16th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%68th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.364th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.426th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.164th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.380th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.884th
- Defense line yards allowed3.034th
- Offense highlight yards2.283rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.912th
- Offense power success0.8063rd
- Defense power success allowed0.9225th
- Offense stuff rate0.0982nd
- Defense stuff rate0.1528th
Third down
- Third down conversion40%42nd
- Third down distance faced5.877th
- Third down conversion allowed32%61st
- Third down distance forced9.591st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1355th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0036th
Drives
- Points per drive3.071st
- Points per drive allowed1.953rd
- Average starting field position227th
- Opponent starting field position2846th
- Available yards gained56%67th
- Available yards allowed52%40th
- Scoring opportunities per drive78%48th
- Scoring opportunities allowed96%18th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.880th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.069th
- Three-and-out rate30%40th
- Three-and-outs forced8%10th
Roster
- Returning usage3%3rd
- Returning EPA20.78th
- Team talent composite67052nd
- Recruiting class rank72.048th
- Recruiting class points18948th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.382 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-1 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 23 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 34.7%
- Expected, given the spots
- 41.5%
- Over expected
- -6.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- -5
- Fourth down vs the model
- -100
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Memphis is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Memphis in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 8-3 | 5-3 | 73% | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 12-2 | 8-1 | 86% | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 8-6 | 5-4 | 57% | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 9.1 | +0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 9.3-3.1. Wins the American Athletic in 21%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 97%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 5.5 points since preseason — won 27-21 over UNLV against an expected margin of −6, so +15.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 55% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 10% of seasons, having won their league in 89% of those.
- The 2026 format is worth +0.7 points to them against the 2025 one.
Memphis’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk2at Boise State20.6
- wk12at Navy15.9
- wk11at South Florida14.2
- wk7at Tulane13.0
- wk9vs Army12.5
- wk8vs East Carolina11.6
Who to root for
Games Memphis is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy3.3
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico3.2
- wk4UAB over Navy2.3
- wk6Fresno State over Boise State2.1
- wk8Washington State over Boise State2.0
- wk2Florida Atlantic over Navy1.9
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 5.7-2.31 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Memphis at Navy25.1
- wk11Memphis at South Florida22.7
- wk9Army at Memphis21.3
- wk7Memphis at Tulane21.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Memphis is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.0% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Gasparilla Bowl33%
- Military Bowl16%
- Fenway Bowl9.1%
- First Responder Bowl7.2%
- Birmingham Bowl5.3%
- Armed Forces Bowl5.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Memphis a player since 2010 — 17 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Memphis's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.