Phillies at Braves
PHI––
ATL–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
- Orion Kerkering8d rest
- Tim Mayza4d rest
- Jhoan Duran2d rest · 31p/3d
- Brooks Raley1d rest · 9p/3d
- Chase Shugart1d rest · 9p/3d
- José Alvarado1d rest · 29p/3d
- Alex McFarlane1d rest · 30p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Blake Burkhalter11d rest
- Dylan Dodd6d rest
- Brent Suter4d rest
- Elieser Hernández4d rest
- Ray Kerr3d rest · 9p/3d
- Bailey Falter3d rest · 17p/3d
- Dylan Lee1d rest · 14p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.