Player Stat Projections · 2026

Season

Baseline 2026 stat lines from each player's 2025 per-game distribution. Projection = the player's per-game median from the 2025 season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.

Matchup (vs D): vs-tough/vs-easy = projection x the 10th/90th-percentile defense's yards-allowed factor, SHRUNK by a data-derived sensitivity (how much output actually tracks the matchup). In-season this uses the specific opponent's factor. Data-derived sensitivity — pass 0.83, rush 0.8, rec 0.63 (1 = output fully tracks the matchup).

Passing yards Rushing yards Receiving yards

#	Player	Proj	vs D	Floor — Ceiling	TD/g	att/g
1	Sawyer RobertsonBaylor	314	264 – 360	194 423	2.58	41.9
2	Walker EgetSan José State	308	259 – 353	131 399	1.55	35.7
3	Trinidad ChamblissOle Miss	304	256 – 348	248 353	1.57	31.8
4	Nick MinicucciDelaware	304	256 – 348	210 339	1.77	39.5
5	Caden VeltkampFlorida Atlantic	298	251 – 342	238 354	2	42.8
6	Joe FagnanoUConn	289	243 – 331	172 357	2.33	34.3
7	Josh HooverTCU	288	242 – 330	238 351	2.42	34.4
8	Drew MestemakerNorth Texas	286	240 – 328	234 371	2.43	33.2
9	Kevin JenningsSMU	285	240 – 327	249 308	2	34.9
10	Jacob ClarkMissouri State	284	239 – 325	157 346	2.33	31.3
11	Jayden MaiavaUSC	282	237 – 323	250 335	1.85	31
12	Micah AlejadoHawai'i	274	230 – 314	186 390	2.18	39.1
13	Julian SayinOhio State	272	229 – 312	166 327	2.29	27.9
14	Katin HouserEast Carolina	272	229 – 312	235 320	1.58	34
15	Darian MensahDuke	268	225 – 307	212 362	2.43	35.7
16	Diego PaviaVanderbilt	268	225 – 307	174 367	2.23	29.1
17	Joey AguilarTennessee	268	225 – 307	204 375	1.85	31.1
18	Ta'Quan RobersonBuffalo	266	224 – 305	120 310	1.55	32.4
19	Jalen KitnaUAB	260	219 – 298	188 328	1.3	33.7
20	Byrum BrownSouth Florida	260	219 – 298	227 293	2.33	28.4
21	Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCalifornia	259	218 – 297	212 324	1.38	37.8
22	Dante MooreOregon	257	216 – 295	179 304	2	27.5
23	Sam LeavittArizona State	257	216 – 295	177 294	1.43	34.1
24	Carson BeckMiami	257	216 – 295	167 287	1.88	29.2
25	Athan KaliakmanisRutgers	256	215 – 293	177 345	1.67	30.7
26	Noah FifitaArizona	253	213 – 290	175 310	2.23	33
27	Ty SimpsonAlabama	253	213 – 290	152 321	1.87	31.5
28	Arch ManningTexas	251	211 – 288	159 332	2	31.1
29	Anthony ColandreaUNLV	250	210 – 287	194 296	1.64	29.8
30	Jaylen RaynorArkansas State	248	208 – 284	215 334	1.46	38.5
31	Taylen GreenArkansas	248	208 – 284	149 311	1.58	27.2
32	Nick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee	247	208 – 283	205 284	1.78	39.7
33	John MateerOklahoma	246	207 – 282	156 311	1.17	33.1
34	Malik WashingtonMaryland	246	207 – 282	210 262	1.42	39.4
35	Colton JosephOld Dominion	244	205 – 280	128 286	1.75	24
36	Logan FifeNew Mexico State	242	203 – 277	180 255	1.1	36.1
37	Jake RetzlaffTulane	242	203 – 277	144 307	1.07	27.9
38	Mason HeintschelPittsburgh	241	203 – 276	132 322	1.6	31.6
39	Thomas CastellanosFlorida State	241	203 – 276	198 260	1.25	25.8
40	Braylon BraxtonSouthern Miss	237	199 – 272	206 319	2	33.3

Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results in 2025 (real variance). Not a market prop quote — and roster moves (transfers, draft departures) aren't folded in until rosters firm up. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.

Player Stat Projections · 2026

Season

#	Player	Proj	vs D	Floor — Ceiling	TD/g	att/g
1	Sawyer RobertsonBaylor	314	264 – 360	194 423	2.58	41.9
2	Walker EgetSan José State	308	259 – 353	131 399	1.55	35.7
3	Trinidad ChamblissOle Miss	304	256 – 348	248 353	1.57	31.8
4	Nick MinicucciDelaware	304	256 – 348	210 339	1.77	39.5
5	Caden VeltkampFlorida Atlantic	298	251 – 342	238 354	2	42.8
6	Joe FagnanoUConn	289	243 – 331	172 357	2.33	34.3
7	Josh HooverTCU	288	242 – 330	238 351	2.42	34.4
8	Drew MestemakerNorth Texas	286	240 – 328	234 371	2.43	33.2
9	Kevin JenningsSMU	285	240 – 327	249 308	2	34.9
10	Jacob ClarkMissouri State	284	239 – 325	157 346	2.33	31.3
11	Jayden MaiavaUSC	282	237 – 323	250 335	1.85	31
12	Micah AlejadoHawai'i	274	230 – 314	186 390	2.18	39.1
13	Julian SayinOhio State	272	229 – 312	166 327	2.29	27.9
14	Katin HouserEast Carolina	272	229 – 312	235 320	1.58	34
15	Darian MensahDuke	268	225 – 307	212 362	2.43	35.7
16	Diego PaviaVanderbilt	268	225 – 307	174 367	2.23	29.1
17	Joey AguilarTennessee	268	225 – 307	204 375	1.85	31.1
18	Ta'Quan RobersonBuffalo	266	224 – 305	120 310	1.55	32.4
19	Jalen KitnaUAB	260	219 – 298	188 328	1.3	33.7
20	Byrum BrownSouth Florida	260	219 – 298	227 293	2.33	28.4
21	Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCalifornia	259	218 – 297	212 324	1.38	37.8
22	Dante MooreOregon	257	216 – 295	179 304	2	27.5
23	Sam LeavittArizona State	257	216 – 295	177 294	1.43	34.1
24	Carson BeckMiami	257	216 – 295	167 287	1.88	29.2
25	Athan KaliakmanisRutgers	256	215 – 293	177 345	1.67	30.7
26	Noah FifitaArizona	253	213 – 290	175 310	2.23	33
27	Ty SimpsonAlabama	253	213 – 290	152 321	1.87	31.5
28	Arch ManningTexas	251	211 – 288	159 332	2	31.1
29	Anthony ColandreaUNLV	250	210 – 287	194 296	1.64	29.8
30	Jaylen RaynorArkansas State	248	208 – 284	215 334	1.46	38.5
31	Taylen GreenArkansas	248	208 – 284	149 311	1.58	27.2
32	Nick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee	247	208 – 283	205 284	1.78	39.7
33	John MateerOklahoma	246	207 – 282	156 311	1.17	33.1
34	Malik WashingtonMaryland	246	207 – 282	210 262	1.42	39.4
35	Colton JosephOld Dominion	244	205 – 280	128 286	1.75	24
36	Logan FifeNew Mexico State	242	203 – 277	180 255	1.1	36.1
37	Jake RetzlaffTulane	242	203 – 277	144 307	1.07	27.9
38	Mason HeintschelPittsburgh	241	203 – 276	132 322	1.6	31.6
39	Thomas CastellanosFlorida State	241	203 – 276	198 260	1.25	25.8
40	Braylon BraxtonSouthern Miss	237	199 – 272	206 319	2	33.3