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Oregon State

Oregon State Beavers

Pac-12·0-2·
Compare
Elo
1260#123
SP+
-6.8#90
FPI
-7.2
AP
NR
Nextvs Montana · Wk 3
Talent #76 (635.8)Recruiting class #10058% production returning

Roster · 109 players

FR 34SO 18JR 27SR 30
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Braden AtkinsonQBSO6'1"208
6Maalik MurphyQBSR6'5"238
10Brady JonesQBSR6'4"197
13Danny LearyQBFR6'3"185
19Isaiah ArriazaQBFR5'9"182
3Cornell Hatcher Jr.RBSO6'0"210
22Tre GarrisonRBFR5'10"190
23AJ NewberryRBSR6'1"200
25Kourdey GlassRBFR5'10"210
27Rocco De La RosaRBFR6'1"202
33Skyler JacksonRBFR6'1"220
34Jake ReichleRBSR6'2"225
0Aaron ButlerWRSO6'0"180
1Adonis McDanielWRSR5'8"172
4Xavyion NolandWRJR5'6"170
5Karson BoschmaWRSR6'3"202
7Aeryn HamptonWRSO5'10"194
12Jesse LegreeWRFR5'10"172
14Eddie FreauffWRSO6'4"220
15Jameson PowellWRFR5'10"175
16Cynai ThomasWRFR6'3"188
17Malachi DurantWRSO6'2"190
18Jayden PadgettWRFR6'4"202
21MJ KennybrewWRFR6'0"185
41Jhae DrummerWRSR5'10"190
88Ross NicksonWRJR6'2"190
8DeCorion TempleTESR6'6"245
80Eric OlsenTESR6'5"240
81Landon CookTEFR6'5"220
82Gabe MilbournTESR6'5"250
84Cody SiegnerTEFR6'7"255
87Jackson BowersTEJR6'5"255
89T'Andre WaverlyTEFR6'4"240
50Teko ShoatsOLJR6'3"295
51Maddox ConwayOLFR6'5"290
55Tanu A'aituiOLFR6'3"285
56Carter GuillaumeOLSO6'1"295
58Jack WagnerOLSO6'3"295
59Frankie PetuyaOLJR6'5"318
61Jake NormoyleOLFR6'4"300
65Peter LangiOLFR6'4"380
67Broderick ShullOLFR6'6"331
69Kwan JohnsonOLSO6'5"305
70Michael LangiOLFR6'2"285
71Josiah TimoteoOLJR6'5"310
72Noah ThomasOLFR6'6"305
74Jacob AndersonOLJR6'6"300
75Will LarkinsOLJR6'5"312
76Ben HartmanOLJR6'5"315
78Nathan EluOLSR6'5"320
79Tyler VoltinOLSR6'5"335
45Jesse MyersDTFR6'3"256
59Tevita Pome'eDTJR6'3"310
60Tiger BlackDTJR6'1"310
62Jacob SchusterDTSR6'2"330
90Daniel MatagiDTSR6'0"305
91Jaylen HillDTFR6'5"305
92Nick NorrisDTSR6'5"285
93Lolani FinauDTJR6'3"285
94Cameron HewittDTSO6'2"320
95Tygee HillDTSR6'3"292
96Luke LevengoodDTSR6'3"275
97Tyler BaileyDTJR6'2"308
1Dylan LayneLBSR6'2"225
2Aiden SullivanLBSR6'1"230
6Jabari OdoemenemLBSR6'1"234
9Raesjon DavisLBSR6'0"228
10Logan KnappLBFR6'7"255
12Gyriece GoodmanLBSR6'2"212
13Jeremiah BrownLBFR6'2"205
14Kord ShawLBSR6'4"230
17Ish FindlayterLBJR6'4"260
18Jarrel ComerLBJR6'4"245
42Caleb MetznerLBFR6'2"256
44Takari HickleLBSR6'3"270
47Tyree BlakeLBSR6'2"230
48Jessaia MoalaLBJR5'11"232
50Will HaverlandLBSO6'6"250
54Clive PondLBJR6'2"225
55Jeremiah IoaneLBFR6'1"220
58Adrian OnyiegoLBSO6'3"230
88Adel DorrLBFR6'4"230
99Niklas FisherLBFR6'4"260
0Harlem HowardDBJR6'0"190
4TJ CrandallDBJR6'1"190
5Xander ChisolmDBJR6'2"190
6Jaheim PattersonDBJR6'4"210
7Kahanu KalahikiDBSO6'1"200
8Sailasa Vadrawale IIIDBJR5'11"185
15RJ WhittenDBSO6'0"202
19Trey GlasperDBSO6'1"185
20David MadisonDBFR6'0"176
21Noble Thomas Jr.DBJR5'11"190
22Isaiah HouiDBJR5'10"175
23Exodus AyersDBSO6'2"200
24Tyjai HopperDBSO6'2"195
25Kai WheatonDBFR5'11"182
26Marquis RaspberryDBSR6'0"185
28Blake ThompsonDBFR6'1"185
29Zephen WalkerDBFR5'11"198
33Sean CraigDBFR6'3"210
36Drake VickersDBSR6'3"204
38Milan ClarkDBJR6'1"182
28Caleb OjedaPKSR5'9"185
37Cameron SmithPKJR5'11"175
98Jadyn OhPKSR6'0"180
38AJ WinsorPJR6'2"195
40Jonathan ZarutLSSO5'11"205
47Tug SanfordLSSR6'0"210

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
22.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
34.0
scoring defense
Differential
-12.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
437.0#49
Yards / play
6.1#70
Passing yards / game
396.5#3
Rushing yards / game
40.5#138
First downs / game
20.0#81
3rd down %
26.7%#128
4th down %
37.5%#98
Time of possession
29:48#85
Defense
Yards allowed / game
442.5#124
Yards / play allowed
6.1#113
Pass yards allowed / game
251.0#113
Rush yards allowed / game
191.5#119
3rd down % allowed
51.7%#130
Sacks
5#38
Tackles for loss
9#94
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#24
Takeaways
3#46
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
6.0#46
Penalty yards / game
51.0#52

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2 games in

Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 126th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.

Oregon State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    1.63
    #11 of 138
  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    7.9%
    #29 of 138

Soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    -0.08
    #136 of 138
  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    3.45
    #126 of 138
  • Offensethe push the line gets
    2.86
    #123 of 138

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 8 to play
2.5 – 7.5
projected final record (now 0–2)
Exp. wins left
2.5
of 8 games
Bowl odds
1%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
71%
vs UTEP
Toughest
13%
vs Boise State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

012345678
final winstallest bar = 31% chance
Likeliest finish 2-8 (31%)Bowl eligible 1% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRAaron Butler, Malachi Durant +4
+38.9 EPA
QBBraden Atkinson, Brady Jones
+38.5 EPA
TED.C. Temple, Jackson Bowers +2
+3.6 EPA
RBAJ Newberry, Jake Reichle +3
-1.6 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBBraden Atkinson
~$1.0M
EPA +38.20.350/play109 snaps
RBAJ Newberry
~$197K
EPA +4.80.216/play22 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.2355th#63
Def0.2511th#123
Explosiveness
Off1.6398th#4
Def1.2353rd#65
Field position
Off77.098th#4
Def66.692nd#12
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.4530th#97
Def4.1316th#116
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3556th#61
Off · rush
-0.089th#125

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.089th#125
Def0.1427th#101
Passing
Off0.3556th#61
Def0.4018th#114

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.86#99
2nd-level / open-field
0.47 / 0.26
Power / stuff (off)
60.0% / 7.9%
Havoc — total (def)
17.2%#56
Havoc — front 7 / DB
9.3% / 7.9%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.14
Def0.09
Pass downs
Off0.37
Def0.57

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.09#690.36#450.21#119
Defense-0.06#630.23#900.91#131

Elo Trajectory

@HoustonFinal
Elo rating 1266 → 1285+19 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2353rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.259th
  • Offense success rate35%9th
  • Defense success rate allowed45%14th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs39%9th
  • Offense success — passing downs29%32nd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs49%18th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs38%14th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.799th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.250th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.397th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.381st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.931st
  • Defense line yards allowed3.120th
  • Offense highlight yards0.294th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.319th
  • Offense power success0.7553rd
  • Defense power success allowed0.8326th
  • Offense stuff rate0.0896th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1624th

Third down

  • Third down conversion27%7th
  • Third down distance faced7.720th
  • Third down conversion allowed52%7th
  • Third down distance forced8.486th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.163rd
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0623rd

Drives

  • Points per drive2.049th
  • Points per drive allowed2.930th
  • Average starting field position2415th
  • Opponent starting field position3326th
  • Available yards gained45%40th
  • Available yards allowed54%41st
  • Scoring opportunities per drive73%36th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed96%13th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.851st
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.047th
  • Three-and-out rate23%52nd
  • Three-and-outs forced25%56th

CORE

  • CORE offense-0.1448th
  • CORE defense3.427th
  • CORE overall-3.531st

Roster

  • Returning usage50%60th
  • Returning EPA97.347th
  • Team talent composite63645th
  • Recruiting class rank10028th
  • Recruiting class points17728th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.232#63 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.347#61
Rush EPA/play
-0.082#125
Explosiveness
1.635#4
Pts/opportunity
3.45#97
Success rate
35.2%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.429 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.253#123 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
17.2%#56
Front-7 havoc
9.3%
DB havoc
7.9%
Big play rate allowed
1.235#65
Success rate allowed
45.0%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

22.0 PPG offense, 34.0 allowed — -12.0 margin/game
Points per game
22.0
Points allowed/game
34.0
Scoring margin/game
-12.0
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
58%
Talent rank (247)
#76

0-2 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE55thEXPLOSIVENESS98thFINISHING30thFIELD POS98thDEFENSE11thHAVOC60th50th100th
Offense
55th
Explosiveness
98th
Finishing
30th
Field Pos
98th
Defense
11th
Havoc
60th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-1.5
#78
Offense
+1.6
#58
Defense
+3.2
#91
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 22 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.042.88
Starting field positionown 24.1own 32.5
Available yards45.3%54.3%
Scoring opportunities72.7%95.8%
Points per opportunity2.813.00
Three-and-out rate22.7%25.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
72.8%
Expected, given the spots
57.9%
Over expected
+14.9
Fourth down vs peers
+5
Fourth down vs the model
+36
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Oregon State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Oregon State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Florida StateSP+ +6.9
Off EPA/play +0.242Def EPA/play +0.268Elo 1557
Match
99%
LouisianaSP+ -5.7
Off EPA/play +0.249Def EPA/play +0.208Elo 1389
Match
97%
Arkansas StateSP+ -15.1
Off EPA/play +0.192Def EPA/play +0.279Elo 1353
Match
97%
StanfordSP+ -4.7
Off EPA/play +0.278Def EPA/play +0.244Elo 1354
Match
97%
East CarolinaSP+ -8.1
Off EPA/play +0.174Def EPA/play +0.257Elo 1477
Match
96%
South AlabamaSP+ -11.4
Off EPA/play +0.236Def EPA/play +0.319Elo 1390
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -12.3, #99 of 1282016: -1.3, #69 of 1282017: -18.0, #115 of 1302018: -22.9, #126 of 1302019: -3.1, #70 of 1302020: -3.9, #79 of 1242021: +10.1, #35 of 1302022: +15.1, #16 of 1312023: +16.5, #19 of 1332024: -17.3, #119 of 1342025: -14.8, #106 of 1362026: -1.5, #78 of 138
20152026
Now -1.5 · #78 of 138Best +16.5 in 2023Worst -22.9 in 2018

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-20-0
0%
0.2-0.2
20252-101-1
17%
4.1-2.1
20245-71-0
42%
4.0+1.0
20238-55-4
62%
9.3-1.3
202210-36-3
77%
11.2-1.2
20217-65-4
54%
8.7-1.7
20202-52-5
29%
2.1-0.1
20195-74-5
42%
5.4-0.4
20182-101-8
17%
2.7-0.7
20171-110-9
8%
1.9-0.9

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.2%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-2 so far, projected to finish 5.5-5.8. Wins the Pac-12 in 8.5%.

If they finish with…

20%
2 losses
0.5%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 20%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.6 points since preseason — lost 20-33 to Houston against an expected margin of −15, so +2.4 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 20% where the average Pac-12 team is 25%.
  • The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.2% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Oregon State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at Boise State1.2
  • wk6vs San Diego State0.5
  • wk9at Fresno State0.5
  • wk5at Colorado State0.4
  • wk12vs Utah State0.4
  • wk7vs Washington State0.4

Who to root for

Games Oregon State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3Georgia over Arkansas0.2
  • wk3Nicholls over Sam Houston0.2
  • wk13LSU over Arkansas0.2
  • wk12App State over UL Monroe0.2
  • wk12Missouri over Kentucky0.2
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.1
The full playoff picture →

Pac-12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.5-3.53 of 8 by title odds
8.5%
Wins the Pac-12
23%
Reaches the title game

The Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Oregon State at Boise State19.3
  • wk6San Diego State at Oregon State11.5
  • wk9Oregon State at Fresno State10.7
  • wk12Utah State at Oregon State10.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →

If not the playoff, then

48%
Bowl eligible
48%
Placed in a bowl
0.2%
In the playoff
52%
Season over in November

Oregon State is 0-2 and needs 6 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Sun Bowl14%
  • Holiday Bowl14%
  • Las Vegas Bowl8.7%
  • Alamo Bowl8.6%
  • Independence Bowl2.2%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Oregon State a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Oregon State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
De La SalleCA40
Rancho CucamongaCA40
CathedralIN30
FolsomCA30
Mission ViejoCA30
ChaminadeCA20
ServiteCA20
Palo AltoCA10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.