@ Notre Dame · Wk 3Win prob 3%Model +27.6Schedule & Results
TOLToledoW30-20✓Wk 2vs
EMUEastern MichiganW35-7✓Wk 3@NDNotre Dame+27.63%Wk 4vs
NEBNebraska+12.322%Wk 5@
WISWisconsin+10.525%Wk 6vs
ILLIllinois+6.734%Wk 7vs
NUNorthwestern+16.415%Wk 8@
UCLAUCLA+15.417%Wk 10@
MICHMichigan+19.411%Wk 11vs
WASHWashington+15.117%Wk 12vs
OREOregon+29.33%Wk 13@
RUTGRutgers+9.129%Team Leaders
Alessio MilivojevicPassing417 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Camryn EdwardsRushing250 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 avg
Rodney Bullard Jr.Receiving10 rec · 116 yds · 1 TD
Brady PretzlaffTackles13 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Michigan State
All news →Eastern Michigan's chunk plays are Michigan State's soft spot
Alessio Milivojevic had a hand in six of Michigan State's eight explosive plays
Cam Edwards and a Toledo Defense Rebuilt From Mercer Up
Roster · 111 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cam Fancher | QB | SR | 6'0" | 207 | Dayton, OH |
| 10 | Kayd Coffman | QB | FR | 6'2" | 206 | Kentwood, MI |
| 11 | Alessio Milivojevic | QB | SO | 6'3" | 223 | Naperville, IL |
| 15 | Leo Hannan | QB | FR | 6'3" | 221 | Long Beach, CA |
| 23 | Peyton Babbitt | QB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Muskegon, MI |
| 0 | Cam Edwards | RB | SR | 5'11" | 206 | Norwalk, CT |
| 4 | Jaziun Patterson | RB | SR | 5'10" | 214 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 7 | Brandon Tullis | RB | JR | 6'1" | 224 | Dallas, TX |
| 20 | Zion Gist | RB | FR | 5'11" | 209 | Frankfort, IL |
| 21 | Marvis Parrish | RB | SO | 5'11" | 209 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 25 | Jace Clarizio | RB | FR | 5'10" | 213 | East Lansing, MI |
| 26 | Cedric Williams Jr. | RB | FR | 5'9" | 201 | Canton, MI |
| 27 | Darrin Jones Jr. | RB | FR | 5'11" | 206 | Lake Orion, MI |
| 32 | Kenneth Williams | RB | JR | 5'9" | 191 | Detroit, MI |
| 33 | Jaxon McCaig | RB | SO | 6'1" | 236 | Plymouth, MI |
| 44 | Jay Coyne | FB | SR | 6'2" | 231 | New York, NY |
| 3 | Rodney Bullard Jr. | WR | SR | 5'11" | 188 | Albany, GA |
| 5 | Samson Gash | WR | FR | 6'0" | 185 | South Lyon, MI |
| 6 | Fredrick Moore | WR | JR | 6'1" | 187 | St. Louis, MO |
| 8 | KK Smith | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Frisco, TX |
| 13 | Chrishon McCray | WR | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Avon, IN |
| 14 | Bryson Williams | WR | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Canton, MI |
| 16 | Zach Washington | WR | FR | 6'2" | 188 | Naperville, IL |
| 17 | Braylon Collier | WR | FR | 6'0" | 187 | Sandusky, OH |
| 18 | Jameel Gardner Jr. | WR | SR | 6'0" | 193 | Detroit, MI |
| 19 | Charles Taplin | WR | FR | 6'1" | 184 | Red Oak, TX |
| 22 | Jack Yanachik | WR | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Warren, MI |
| 81 | Colin Charles | WR | FR | 6'0" | 202 | Northville, MI |
| 85 | Rai'Shawn Elmore | WR | FR | 6'2" | 193 | Indian Trail, NC |
| 89 | Nick Hardy | WR | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Birmingham, MI |
| 12 | Carson Gulker | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Zeeland, MI |
| 31 | Jayden Savoury | TE | FR | 6'5" | 253 | Canton, MI |
| 48 | Charlie Baker | TE | SO | 6'4" | 252 | East Lansing, MI |
| 82 | Brennan Parachek | TE | JR | 6'5" | 249 | Dexter, MI |
| 84 | Eddie Whiting | TE | FR | 6'6" | 254 | Sioux Falls, SD |
| 86 | Ethan Melville | TE | FR | 6'4" | 213 | Holt, MI |
| 87 | Joe Caudill | TE | FR | 6'4" | 232 | Lexington, OH |
| 88 | Kai Rios | TE | SR | 6'6" | 262 | Rock Island, IL |
| 52 | Nick Sharpe | OL | SR | 6'2" | 351 | Gastonia, NC |
| 54 | Antonio Johnson | OL | FR | 6'5" | 287 | Detroit, MI |
| 55 | Rakeem Johnson | OL | SO | 6'4" | 296 | Boise, ID |
| 56 | Jack Ziarko | OL | FR | 6'2" | 286 | North Canton, OH |
| 58 | Conner Moore | OL | SR | 6'6" | 311 | Millbury, OH |
| 61 | Collin Campbell | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 63 | Trent Fraley | OL | SR | 6'1" | 306 | Moon Township, PA |
| 65 | Cole Bertke | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | East Grand Rapids, MI |
| 68 | Eli Bickel | OL | FR | 6'6" | 312 | North Branch, MI |
| 70 | Luka Vincic | OL | SR | 6'5" | 306 | Bothell, WA |
| 71 | Robert Wright Jr. | OL | JR | 6'5" | 294 | Atlanta, GA |
| 73 | Rustin Young | OL | SO | 6'4" | 308 | Honolulu, HI |
| 75 | Ben Murawski | OL | SR | 6'7" | 340 | Harleysville, PA |
| 76 | Drew Nichols | OL | FR | 6'4" | 298 | Murrieta, CA |
| 77 | Andrew Dennis | OL | SO | 6'4" | 302 | Mount Pleasant, MI |
| 79 | Tristan Comer | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Freeland, MI |
| 8 | Trey Lisle | EDGE | SO | 6'6" | 254 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 9 | Keahnist Thompson | EDGE | SR | 6'3" | 266 | Lakeland, FL |
| 11 | Anelu Lafaele | EDGE | SO | 6'2" | 240 | Kalihi, HI |
| 13 | Isaac Smith | EDGE | SR | 6'6" | 260 | Wagoner, OK |
| 23 | Kenny Soares Jr. | EDGE | SR | 6'2" | 234 | Trumbull, CT |
| 33 | Cory House Jr. | EDGE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Memphis, TN |
| 36 | Leonard Ah You | EDGE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Laie, HI |
| 47 | Jaxson Wilson | EDGE | JR | 6'5" | 258 | Hartland, MI |
| 51 | Kekai Burnett | EDGE | SO | 6'3" | 262 | Honolulu, HI |
| 56 | Chris Piwowarczyk | EDGE | SO | 6'0" | 250 | Fenton, MI |
| 94 | Aidan Boehle | EDGE | JR | 6'4" | 253 | Minnetonka, MN |
| 25 | Carlos Hazelwood | DL | SO | 6'4" | 290 | Chicago, IL |
| 52 | Mikeshun Beeler | DL | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Chicago, IL |
| 55 | Ben Roberts | DL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Lakewood, WA |
| 57 | Hudson Aultman | DL | FR | 6'4" | 312 | Delaware, OH |
| 91 | Jackson Pahl | DL | FR | 6'2" | 282 | Howell, MI |
| 96 | Eli Coenen | DL | JR | 6'6" | 287 | Baldwin, WI |
| 97 | Cal Thrush | DL | FR | 6'5" | 263 | Upper Arlington, OH |
| 98 | Derrick Simmons | DL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Frankenmuth, MI |
| 5 | Jordan Hall | LB | SR | 6'3" | 249 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 10 | DiMari Malone | LB | FR | 6'1" | 238 | Macomb Township, MI |
| 12 | Cam Stodghill | LB | SR | 6'3" | 222 | Charlotte, NC |
| 16 | Adam Shaw | LB | FR | 6'3" | 223 | River Vale, NJ |
| 18 | Dion Crawford | LB | SR | 6'1" | 243 | Atlanta, GA |
| 39 | Jack Lansing III | LB | FR | 6'0" | 213 | Brighton, MI |
| 40 | DeJae White | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Pontiac, MI |
| 44 | Caleb Wheatland | LB | SR | 6'1" | 244 | Centreville, VA |
| 45 | Brady Pretzlaff | LB | SO | 6'3" | 238 | Gaylord, MI |
| 0 | NiJhay Burt | CB | SR | 5'11" | 188 | Homestead, PA |
| 3 | Tre Bell | CB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | St. Louis, MO |
| 14 | Andrew Brinson IV | CB | SO | 6'1" | 186 | Tampa, FL |
| 19 | Charles Brantley | CB | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Sarasota, FL |
| 20 | Keshawn Williams | CB | SO | 6'0" | 187 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 22 | Tyran Chappell | CB | SO | 6'3" | 189 | Dallas, TX |
| 24 | Jeremiah Favorite | CB | FR | 5'11" | 172 | Myrtle Beach, SC |
| 27 | Truth Umenyiora | CB | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Atlanta, GA |
| 29 | KJ Deriso | CB | FR | 6'0" | 160 | Atlanta, GA |
| 37 | Darelle Cochran | CB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Redford, MI |
| 42 | Luca Genrich | CB | FR | 5'10" | 187 | Farmington, MI |
| 21 | Nikai Martinez | DB | SR | 5'11" | 196 | Apopka, FL |
| 2 | Devin Vaught | S | JR | 6'0" | 212 | Charlotte, NC |
| 7 | Michael Richard | S | SR | 5'10" | 179 | New Orleans, LA |
| 15 | Caleb Gash | S | JR | 6'0" | 193 | South Lyon, MI |
| 17 | Jonathan Granby | S | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 26 | Trevaughn Martinez | S | JR | 5'9" | 175 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 28 | Brayden Thomas | S | FR | 6'0" | 177 | Cleveland, OH |
| 30 | Aveon Grose | S | SR | 5'11" | 187 | Mansfield, OH |
| 31 | Deuce Edwards | S | FR | 6'0" | 202 | Richmond, VA |
| 32 | Evan Young | S | SO | 6'0" | 196 | Lufkin, TX |
| 34 | Khalil Majeed | S | SR | 5'11" | 201 | Moorestown, NJ |
| 35 | Eliyjah Caldwell | S | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 37 | Liam Boyd | PK | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Asheville, NC |
| 85 | Stephen Gonzales | PK | FR | 5'10" | 182 | Monroe, NC |
| 9 | Rhys Dakin | P | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 49 | Alex Weeks | P | FR | 6'4" | 191 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 50 | Nick Duzansky | LS | JR | 6'5" | 197 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 53 | Trey Serauskis | LS | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Frankfort, IL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Michigan State is in year 1 under Pat Fitzgerald, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 127th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line15.9%#130 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.11#127 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground44%#120 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.21#52
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.94 / 0.94
- Power / stuff (off)
- 64.3% / 15.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 23.2%#24
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 14.7% / 8.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.08#67 | 0.03#99 | 0.36#99 |
| Defense | -0.15#47 | 0.52#127 | 0.35#71 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0217th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2819th
- Offense success rate38%22nd
- Defense success rate allowed29%79th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs44%30th
- Offense success — passing downs22%19th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs28%88th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs29%44th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.127th
- Defense explosiveness allowed2.31st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9640th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.839th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.833rd
- Defense line yards allowed1.197th
- Offense highlight yards0.3825th
- Defense highlight yards allowed3.52nd
- Offense power success0.3312th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.2125th
- Defense stuff rate0.4499th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%26th
- Third down distance faced6.168th
- Third down conversion allowed13%93rd
- Third down distance forced8.983rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3080th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1120th
Drives
- Points per drive2.970th
- Points per drive allowed2.149th
- Average starting field position3790th
- Opponent starting field position3034th
- Available yards gained62%76th
- Available yards allowed130%1st
- Scoring opportunities per drive90%70th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.266th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.043rd
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced40%81st
Roster
- Returning usage30%37th
- Returning EPA52.930th
- Team talent composite68556th
- Recruiting class rank45.068th
- Recruiting class points21468th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.246 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 43.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 45.2%
- Over expected
- -2.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- +2
- Fourth down vs the model
- -20
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Michigan State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Michigan State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 33% | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 29% | 2.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 8.3 | -1.3 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 9.4 | +0.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 5.1-6.9.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 0.7 points since preseason — won 30-20 over Toledo against an expected margin of +14, so −3.7 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 52% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Michigan State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12vs Oregon4.7
- wk10at Michigan2.8
- wk8at UCLA2.5
- wk11vs Washington2.3
- wk4vs Nebraska1.9
- wk6vs Illinois1.8
Who to root for
Games Michigan State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia0.4
- wk9Northwestern over Oregon0.4
- wk2Lindenwood over Missouri State0.4
- wk5Memphis over Charlotte0.4
- wk11Iowa over Purdue0.4
- wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon0.3
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 3.2-5.816 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Michigan State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- LA Bowl6.1%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl5.9%
- Rate Bowl4.9%
- Pinstripe Bowl4.2%
- Las Vegas Bowl3.3%
- Xbox Bowl2.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 11 have sent Michigan State a player since 2010 — 25 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Michigan State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.