Padres at Giants
SD––
SF–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · Padres's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (27% vs 23%).
- Jhony Brito7d rest
- Randy Vásquez4d rest
- David Morgan3d rest · 8p/3d
- Griffin Canning3d rest · 11p/3d
- Wandy Peralta3d rest · 24p/3d
- Kyle Hart3d rest · 25p/3d
- Adrian Morejon1d rest · 12p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Braxton Roxby11d rest
- Cesar Perdomo11d rest
- Ryan Walker9d rest
- Jason Foley5d rest
- Dylan Smith5d rest
- Reiver Sanmartin4d rest
- Joel Kuhnel4d rest
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.