Schedule & Results
BOISBoise StateW34-27✓Wk 2@
OKSTOklahoma StateL31-39✗Wk 3vsPOSTPortland StateWk 4@
USCUSC+0.249%Wk 6vs
UCLAUCLA-21.593%Wk 7vs
NEBNebraska-19.991%Wk 8@
ILLIllinois-22.093%Wk 9vs
NUNorthwestern-16.587%Wk 10@
OSUOhio State+1.247%Wk 11vs
MICHMichigan-17.888%Wk 12@
MSUMichigan State-29.397%Wk 13vs
WASHWashington-17.788%Team Leaders
Dante MoorePassing569 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
Jordon DavisonRushing113 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 avg
Jeremiah McClellanReceiving7 rec · 170 yds · 1 TD
Koi PerichTackles15 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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We loved Oregon. Oregon lost by 20. That's the game.
Roster · 114 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dante Moore | QB | JR | 6'3" | 206 | Detroit, MI |
| 8 | Dylan Raiola | QB | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Buford, GA |
| 11 | Akili Smith Jr. | QB | FR | 6'5" | 231 | San Diego, CA |
| 12 | Brock Thomas | QB | JR | 5'11" | 191 | Eugene, OR |
| 14 | Ryder Hayes | QB | SO | 6'2" | 193 | Grandview, TX |
| 16 | TC Manumaleuna | QB | FR | — | — | Salem, OR |
| 0 | Jordon Davison | RB | SO | 6'0" | 236 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 4 | Tradarian Ball | RB | FR | — | — | Texarkana, TX |
| 6 | Dierre Hill Jr. | RB | SO | 5'11" | 205 | Centralia, IL |
| 21 | Da'Jaun Riggs | RB | SO | 6'0" | 205 | Washington, DC |
| 22 | Simeon Price | RB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Pensacola, FL |
| 26 | Brandon Smith | RB | FR | — | — | Fresno, CA |
| 27 | Killian Sombe | RB | FR | — | — | Portland, OR |
| 40 | Zander Quinn | RB | JR | 5'7" | 170 | Hilo, HI |
| 1 | Dakorien Moore | WR | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Duncanville, TX |
| 2 | Iverson Hooks | WR | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Pike Road, AL |
| 3 | Jeremiah McClellan | WR | SO | 6'0" | 195 | St. Louis, MO |
| 7 | Evan Stewart | WR | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Frisco, TX |
| 10 | Jalen Lott | WR | FR | — | — | Frisco, TX |
| 13 | Gatlin Bair | WR | FR | — | — | Burley, ID |
| 15 | Messiah Hampton | WR | FR | — | — | Rochester, NY |
| 24 | Hunter Vaughn | WR | FR | — | — | Eugene, OR |
| 30 | Aaron Bidwell | WR | FR | 6'5" | 190 | Eugene, OR |
| 80 | Dillon Gresham | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Hemet, CA |
| 82 | Nathan McCoy II | WR | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Dallas, TX |
| 83 | Hudson Lewis | WR | FR | — | — | Boise, ID |
| 84 | Jovon McRae II | WR | FR | 6'1" | 218 | Camden, NJ |
| 88 | Jack Ressler | WR | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Irvine, CA |
| 89 | Brady Bidwell | WR | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Eugene, OR |
| 9 | Jamari Johnson | TE | JR | 6'5" | 257 | Inglewood, CA |
| 17 | Markus Dixon | TE | JR | 6'4" | 265 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 18 | Kendre Harrison | TE | FR | — | — | Reidsville, NC |
| 19 | Andrew Olesh | TE | FR | 6'5" | 226 | Center Valley, PA |
| 81 | Dayton Raiola | TE | FR | — | — | Buford, GA |
| 85 | Cole Newton | TE | FR | — | — | Tualatin, OR |
| 87 | A.J. Pugliano | TE | SO | 6'3" | 250 | Medford, OR |
| 50 | Demetri Manning | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Bellevue, WA |
| 53 | Devin Brooks | OL | SO | 6'4" | 290 | Clackamas, OR |
| 54 | Aiden Lewey | OL | FR | — | — | Eugene, OR |
| 55 | Douglas Utu | OL | FR | 6'4" | 335 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 56 | Trent Ferguson | OL | SO | 6'5" | 320 | Salem, OR |
| 57 | Zac Stascausky | OL | FR | 6'6" | 285 | Portland, OR |
| 58 | Ziyare Addison | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Tampa, FL |
| 59 | Fox Crader | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Vancouver, WA |
| 65 | Solomon Kroeker | OL | FR | — | — | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 66 | Bryce Boulton | OL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Palm Desert, CA |
| 67 | Beau CressAllen | OL | JR | 6'4" | 317 | Portland, OR |
| 68 | Auston Mims | OL | JR | 6'2" | 316 | Akron, OH |
| 70 | Koloi Keli | OL | FR | — | — | Honolulu, HI |
| 72 | Iapani Laloulu | OL | SR | 6'2" | 329 | Honolulu, HI |
| 73 | Kawika Rogers | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Kapaa, HI |
| 74 | Dave Iuli | OL | SR | 6'3" | 332 | Puyallup, WA |
| 75 | Michael Bennett III | OL | SR | 6'5" | 302 | Atlanta, GA |
| 77 | Tommy Tofi | OL | FR | — | — | San Francisco, CA |
| 78 | Gernorris Wilson | OL | JR | 6'5" | 318 | Lakeland, FL |
| 79 | Immanuel Iheanacho | OL | FR | — | — | Baltimore, MD |
| 55 | Matthew Johnson | DE | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Concord, CA |
| 0 | D'Antre Robinson | DL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Orlando, FL |
| 1 | Bear Alexander | DL | SR | 6'3" | 302 | Terrell, TX |
| 32 | Tony Cumberland | DL | FR | — | — | Columbus, OH |
| 42 | Aydin Breland | DL | SO | 6'5" | 304 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 52 | A'Mauri Washington | DL | SR | 6'3" | 330 | Detroit, MI |
| 90 | Anthony Jones | DL | FR | — | — | Irvine, CA |
| 91 | Derrick Brown Jr. | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Fort Washington, MD |
| 99 | Jerome Simmons | DL | SR | 6'4" | 330 | Bamberg, SC |
| 6 | Jerry Mixon | LB | SR | 6'2" | 240 | San Francisco, CA |
| 9 | Devon Jackson | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Omaha, NE |
| 10 | Matayo Uiagalelei | LB | SR | 6'5" | 272 | Bellflower, CA |
| 11 | Dylan Williams | LB | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Carson, CA |
| 13 | Gavin Nix | LB | FR | 6'0" | 230 | Bradenton, FL |
| 19 | Braylon Hodge | LB | FR | — | — | Englewood, CO |
| 23 | Brayden Platt | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Yelm, WA |
| 25 | Tristan Phillips | LB | FR | — | — | Ventura, CA |
| 27 | Bleu Dantzler | LB | FR | 6'2" | 241 | Chandler, AZ |
| 28 | Anthony Jones Jr. | LB | FR | — | — | Mobile, AL |
| 31 | Nasir Wyatt | LB | SO | 6'2" | 228 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 35 | Brody Thomas | LB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Eugene, OR |
| 38 | Will Straton | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Honolulu, HI |
| 41 | Dutch Horisk | LB | FR | — | — | Bellflower, CA |
| 44 | Teitum Tuioti | LB | SR | 6'3" | 263 | Laie, HI |
| 45 | Hudson Coe | LB | FR | — | — | Portland, OR |
| 46 | Jay Harden | LB | FR | 6'2" | 219 | Stevenson Ranch, CA |
| 47 | Elijah Rushing | LB | SO | 6'6" | 275 | Tucson, AZ |
| 51 | Prince Tavizon | LB | FR | — | — | San Diego, CA |
| 2 | Na'eem Offord | DB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Birmingham, AL |
| 3 | Koi Perich | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Esko, MN |
| 4 | Brandon Finney Jr. | DB | SO | 6'2" | 203 | Owings Mills, MD |
| 5 | Davon Benjamin | DB | FR | — | — | Westlake Village, CA |
| 7 | Ify Obidegwu | DB | SO | 6'1" | 203 | Baltimore, MD |
| 8 | Trey McNutt | DB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Cleveland, OH |
| 12 | Peyton Woodyard | DB | JR | 6'2" | 208 | Fullerton, CA |
| 14 | Aaron Scott Jr. | DB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Springfield, OH |
| 15 | Carl Williams IV | DB | JR | 6'1" | 192 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 16 | Azel Banag | DB | FR | — | — | Columbia, SC |
| 17 | Tre Watson | DB | JR | — | — | Sacramento, CA |
| 18 | Dorian Brew | DB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Conroe, TX |
| 20 | Xavier Lherisse | DB | FR | — | — | Melbourne, FL |
| 21 | Aaron Flowers | DB | SO | 6'0" | 208 | Forney, TX |
| 22 | Devin Jackson | DB | FR | — | — | Winter Garden, FL |
| 24 | Jett Washington | DB | FR | — | — | Las Vegas, NV |
| 29 | Arlo Henderson | DB | JR | 5'10" | — | Yelm, WA |
| 30 | Xavier Barksdale | DB | JR | 6'2" | 182 | San Diego, CA |
| 33 | Zach Grisham | DB | SR | 5'11" | 204 | Portland, OR |
| 34 | Cruz Rushing | DB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Tucson, AZ |
| 37 | Braxton Singleton | DB | FR | — | — | Salem, OR |
| 39 | Cole Thomas | DB | FR | — | — | Portland, OR |
| 25 | Rocco Graziano | PK | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Eugene, OR |
| 35 | Keaton Emmett | PK | JR | 6'0" | 198 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 97 | Gage Hurych | PK | SO | 6'1" | 189 | West Linn, OR |
| 36 | Michael Sbuttoni | P | SR | 5'9" | 193 | Ballston Lake, NY |
| 39 | Bailey Ettridge | P | SO | 5'11" | 207 | Lara, VIC |
| 49 | Jack Nicoli | P | FR | — | — | Salem, OR |
| 64 | Thomas Donkerbrook | LS | FR | — | — | Phoenix, AZ |
| 71 | RJ Todd | LS | SR | 6'2" | 189 | Rockford, MI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Oregon throws it: Dan Lanning's offenses have been pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+10.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −16.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oregon has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#1projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#1projected
- Offensethrowing it#2projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.20#50
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.00 / 0.76
- Power / stuff (off)
- 83.3% / 13.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 12.3%#123
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 3.9% / 8.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.15#50 | 0.40#39 | 0.41#88 |
| Defense | 0.11#111 | 0.19#83 | -0.27#4 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2150th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0753rd
- Offense success rate38%24th
- Defense success rate allowed40%40th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs43%22nd
- Offense success — passing downs30%37th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%34th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs23%72nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.696th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.179th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.499th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.167th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.268th
- Defense line yards allowed2.931st
- Offense highlight yards0.7933rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.134th
- Offense power success0.8375th
- Defense power success allowed0.7931st
- Offense stuff rate0.1472nd
- Defense stuff rate0.1413th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%21st
- Third down distance faced6.950th
- Third down conversion allowed28%80th
- Third down distance forced6.215th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0715th
- Net success rate — second half0.0237th
Drives
- Points per drive2.356th
- Points per drive allowed2.346th
- Average starting field position3691st
- Opponent starting field position3037th
- Available yards gained48%46th
- Available yards allowed52%47th
- Scoring opportunities per drive73%37th
- Scoring opportunities allowed81%49th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.267th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.235th
- Three-and-out rate15%82nd
- Three-and-outs forced31%69th
CORE
- CORE offense-0.1448th
- CORE defense-5.884th
- CORE overall5.672nd
Roster
- Returning usage67%79th
- Returning EPA37399th
- Team talent composite98499th
- Recruiting class rank3.099th
- Recruiting class points30399th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.195 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 26 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 56.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.3%
- Over expected
- +4.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- +19
- Fourth down vs the model
- -13
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Oregon is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Oregon in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 13-2 | 8-1 | 87% | 12.7 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 13-1 | 10-0 | 93% | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 12-2 | 8-2 | 86% | 12.7 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 10.5 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 10-4 | 7-3 | 71% | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 4-3 | 4-2 | 57% | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 2019 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.3 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 9-4 | 5-4 | 69% | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 8.3-3.9. Top-four bye in 4.7%. Wins the Big Ten in 7.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 47.7 points since preseason — won 34-27 over Boise State against an expected margin of +27, so −19.5 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 92% where the average Big Ten team is 69%.
- The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.
Oregon’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk10at Ohio State39.1
- wk4at USC28.1
- wk11vs Michigan24.3
- wk7vs Nebraska23.9
- wk6vs UCLA23.1
- wk13vs Washington22.1
Who to root for
Games Oregon is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State3.4
- wk4Illinois over Ohio State2.8
- wk12Nebraska over Ohio State2.3
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia2.2
- wk5Boise State over Utah State2.1
- wk9Boise State over Texas State2.0
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 6.2-2.84 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10Oregon at Ohio State20.3
- wk4Oregon at USC10.1
- wk6UCLA at Oregon8.8
- wk11Michigan at Oregon8.7
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Oregon is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Citrus Bowl12%
- ReliaQuest Bowl11%
- Las Vegas Bowl10%
- Music City Bowl10%
- Pinstripe Bowl7.7%
- Rate Bowl6.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 14 have sent Oregon a player since 2010 — 65 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Oregon's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.