vs UTEP · Wk 3Win prob 99%Model -32.7Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Bryce UnderwoodPassing281 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT- Bryce UnderwoodRushing134 yds · 2 TD · 5.0 avg
JJ BuchananReceiving8 rec · 174 yds · 1 TD
Troy BowlesTackles21 tackles · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
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Western Michigan's secondary is back; its pass rush isn't
Roster · 118 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tommy Carr | QB | FR | 6'4" | 185 | Saline, MI |
| 15 | Chase Herbstreit | QB | SO | 6'1" | 198 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 16 | Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi | QB | SR | 6'3" | 212 | Aledo, TX |
| 17 | Brady Smigiel | QB | FR | 6'5" | 215 | Thousand Oaks, CA |
| 19 | Bryce Underwood | QB | SO | 6'4" | 228 | Detroit, MI |
| 5 | Savion Hiter | RB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Louisa, VA |
| 23 | Jordan Marshall | RB | JR | 5'11" | 216 | West Chester, OH |
| 24 | Bryson Kuzdzal | RB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Ada, MI |
| 25 | Micah Ka'apana | RB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Waianae, HI |
| 26 | Donovan Johnson | RB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Savannah, GA |
| 29 | Jonathan Brown | RB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Westerville, OH |
| 32 | Gary Stacy | RB | SO | 6'1" | 202 | Grosse Pointe Woods, MI |
| 36 | Tomas O'Meara | RB | JR | 5'10" | 192 | Riverview, MI |
| 0 | Kendrick Bell | WR | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Kansas City, MO |
| 3 | Andrew Marsh | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Fulshear, TX |
| 6 | JJ Buchanan | WR | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Henderson, NV |
| 9 | Channing Goodwin | WR | JR | 6'1" | 197 | Charlotte, NC |
| 10 | Jaime Ffrench | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 12 | Salesi Moa | WR | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Ogden, UT |
| 13 | Travis Johnson | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 20 | Jaylen Pile | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Grapevine, TX |
| 22 | Braydon Alford | WR | JR | 5'8" | 180 | Dublin, OH |
| 38 | Bryce Wilcox | WR | SR | 5'11" | 191 | Sharpsburg, GA |
| 81 | Jamar Browder | WR | SO | 6'5" | 215 | Lake Worth, FL |
| 84 | Jacob Washington | WR | SO | 6'3" | 197 | Harvey, LA |
| 85 | Logan Forbes | WR | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Clarkston, MI |
| 89 | Kaleb Schlecht | WR | SR | 6'4" | 205 | Ann Arbor, MI |
| 18 | Mason Bonner | TE | FR | 6'7" | 229 | Lakewood, CO |
| 40 | Jimmy Pisani | TE | FR | 6'4" | 236 | Clarendon Hills, IL |
| 42 | Jalen Hoffman | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Burke, VA |
| 44 | Eli Owens | TE | SO | 6'1" | 244 | Alcoa, TN |
| 46 | Crandall Quinn | TE | SR | 6'2" | 238 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 80 | Hogan Hansen | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | Medina, WA |
| 83 | Zack Marshall | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Solana Beach, CA |
| 88 | Deakon Tonielli | TE | SR | 6'5" | 246 | Oswego, IL |
| 50 | Luke Hamilton | OL | JR | 6'5" | 319 | Avon, OH |
| 52 | Ace Hamilton | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Clinton, MD |
| 53 | Jake Guarnera | OL | JR | 6'4" | 311 | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| 54 | Andrew Sprague | OL | JR | 6'8" | 315 | Kansas City, MO |
| 55 | Nathan Efobi | OL | SR | 6'3" | 312 | Cumming, GA |
| 58 | Malakai Lee | OL | FR | 6'7" | 359 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 60 | Brooks Bahr | OL | SR | 6'5" | 312 | Lake Forest, IL |
| 64 | James Kavouklis | OL | SR | 6'1" | 295 | Tampa, FL |
| 65 | Andrew Babalola | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Overland Park, KS |
| 66 | Dan Taraboi | OL | SR | 6'7" | 328 | Cedarburg, WI |
| 67 | Houston Ka'aha'aina-Torres | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Waimanalo, HI |
| 70 | Brady Norton | OL | SR | 6'4" | 312 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 71 | Evan Link | OL | SR | 6'6" | 324 | Burke, VA |
| 72 | Peter Donini | OL | SO | 6'9" | 270 | Summit, NJ |
| 74 | Avery Gach | OL | SO | 6'5" | 308 | Franklin, MI |
| 76 | Manuel Beigel | OL | JR | 6'5" | 312 | Frankfurt |
| 77 | Blake Frazier | OL | JR | 6'6" | 295 | Austin, TX |
| 78 | Marky Walbridge | OL | FR | 6'6" | 285 | Hanover, MA |
| 79 | Tommy Fraumann | OL | FR | 6'8" | 279 | Wilmette, IL |
| 8 | Dominic Nichols | DE | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Frederick, MD |
| 9 | Cameron Brandt | DE | SR | 6'4" | 270 | Chatsworth, CA |
| 14 | Carter Meadows | DE | FR | 6'7" | 252 | Bethesda, MD |
| 37 | Julius Holly | DE | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 41 | Tariq Boney | DE | FR | 6'1" | 243 | Washington, DC |
| 51 | Mchale Blade | DE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Country Club Hills, IL |
| 88 | Lugard Edokpayi | DE | JR | 6'7" | 250 | Bowie, MD |
| 90 | John Henry Daley | DE | SR | 6'4" | 255 | Alpine, UT |
| 93 | Benny Patterson III | DE | SO | 6'2" | 270 | Newburgh, IN |
| 94 | Nate Marshall | DE | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Oak Park, IL |
| 17 | Enow Etta | DT | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Keller, TX |
| 54 | Deyvid Palepale | DT | JR | 6'2" | 335 | Anchorage, AK |
| 56 | Alister Vallejo | DT | FR | 6'3" | 307 | Liberty Hill, TX |
| 57 | Travis Moten | DT | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Louisville, KY |
| 91 | Jonah Lea'ea | DT | SR | 6'5" | 285 | San Mateo, CA |
| 92 | Ted Hammond | DT | JR | 6'5" | 294 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 95 | Trey Pierce | DT | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Evergreen Park, IL |
| 97 | Titan Davis | DT | FR | 6'4" | 286 | Overland, MO |
| 99 | Bobby Kanka | DT | SO | 6'4" | 305 | Howell, MI |
| 12 | Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng | LB | SO | 6'1" | 217 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 13 | Aisea Moa | LB | SR | 6'2" | 238 | North Ogden, UT |
| 15 | Aden Reeder | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Monroe, OH |
| 18 | Troy Bowles | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Tampa, FL |
| 23 | Markel Dabney | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Chesterfield, VA |
| 29 | Chase Taylor | LB | SO | 6'2" | 237 | Stockbridge, GA |
| 30 | Max Alford | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Park City, UT |
| 33 | Kaden Catchings | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Jackson, MS |
| 34 | John Weidenbach | LB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Naperville, IL |
| 35 | Ndi Etta | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Keller, TX |
| 43 | Zach Ludwig | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | South Park, PA |
| 44 | Nathaniel Staehling | LB | SR | 6'2" | 238 | Baxter, MN |
| 49 | Adam Bazzi | LB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Rochester Hills, MI |
| 52 | Christian Pierce | LB | SO | 6'0" | 235 | Chicago, IL |
| 0 | Jyaire Hill | CB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Kankakee, IL |
| 2 | Shamari Earls | CB | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Chester, VA |
| 3 | Smith Snowden | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Lehi, UT |
| 10 | Zeke Berry | CB | SR | 5'11" | 196 | Pittsburg, CA |
| 16 | Jo'Ziah Edmond | CB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 20 | Jeremiah Lowe | CB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Lexington, KY |
| 24 | Jamarion Vincent | CB | FR | 6'2" | 170 | Waco, TX |
| 28 | I'Marion Stewart | CB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Chicago, IL |
| 36 | Joshua Nichols | CB | SR | 5'10" | 205 | Detroit, MI |
| 38 | Sam Baron | CB | SR | 6'1" | 188 | Cadillac, MI |
| 42 | Jeffrey Chukwu | CB | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Severna Park, MD |
| 1 | Rod Moore | S | SR | 6'0" | 198 | Clayton, OH |
| 5 | Jacob Oden | S | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Detroit, MI |
| 6 | Jordan Young | S | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Monroe, NC |
| 7 | Chris Bracy | S | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Mobile, AL |
| 22 | Jordan Deck | S | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Little Elm, TX |
| 25 | Mason Curtis | S | JR | 6'5" | 211 | Nashville, TN |
| 27 | Ernest Nunley | S | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Carson, CA |
| 28 | Kainoa Winston | S | SO | 5'11" | 204 | Montgomery Village, MD |
| 31 | Nico Andrighetto | S | SR | 5'9" | 190 | Mountain View, CA |
| 39 | Max Reyes | S | SR | 5'11" | 203 | Southlake, TX |
| 30 | Jacob Baggett | PK | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 35 | Stuart Blake | PK | JR | 6'1" | 181 | Jenkintown, PA |
| 99 | Trey Butkowski | PK | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Orlando, FL |
| 33 | Cam Brown | P | SO | 6'3" | 185 | Gold Coast, QLD |
| 90 | Hudson Hollenbeck | P | SR | 6'2" | 206 | Collierville, TN |
| 93 | Hunter Robertson | P | SR | 6'4" | 205 | Huntington Woods, MI |
| 43 | Jack Treutelaar | LS | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Libertyville, IL |
| 46 | Gavin Magorien | LS | SO | 6'0" | 202 | Erie, PA |
| 49 | Nico Crawford | LS | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Dublin, OH |
| 67 | Trent Middleton | LS | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Fullerton, CA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 127th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#6projected
- Offenserunning it#8projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#127projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.93#86
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.84 / 0.74
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 11.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 16.4%#65
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 13.4% / 3.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.13#117 | 0.15#80 | 0.41#92 |
| Defense | -0.07#63 | -0.20#22 | 0.44#81 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2450th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0466th
- Offense success rate44%45th
- Defense success rate allowed33%65th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs50%49th
- Offense success — passing downs29%34th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs38%67th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs24%57th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.126th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.172nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.716th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.693rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.469th
- Defense line yards allowed2.755th
- Offense highlight yards0.3322nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0585th
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.0885th
- Defense stuff rate0.1842nd
Third down
- Third down conversion30%18th
- Third down distance faced6.561st
- Third down conversion allowed47%23rd
- Third down distance forced7.250th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1660th
- Net success rate — second half0.0345th
Drives
- Points per drive0.7816th
- Points per drive allowed0.9081st
- Average starting field position161st
- Opponent starting field position3512th
- Available yards gained26%13th
- Available yards allowed37%77th
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
- Scoring opportunities allowed90%33rd
- Points per scoring opportunity1.214th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.089th
- Three-and-out rate56%5th
- Three-and-outs forced20%38th
Roster
- Returning usage71%86th
- Returning EPA21379th
- Team talent composite89093rd
- Recruiting class rank12.092nd
- Recruiting class points27092nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.067 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 52.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 49.6%
- Over expected
- +2.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- -5
- Fourth down vs the model
- -33
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Michigan is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Michigan in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 0.6 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 7-2 | 69% | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 15-0 | 10-0 | 100% | 14.1 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 13-1 | 10-0 | 93% | 12.6 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.7 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 33% | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 9-4 | 6-3 | 69% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 10-3 | 8-1 | 77% | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 8.0 | +0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.6-5.4. Top-four bye in 1.6%. Wins the Big Ten in 1.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 12.9 points since preseason — won 13-12 over Western Michigan against an expected margin of +25, so −24.4 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 97% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Michigan’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk13at Ohio State26.5
- wk11at Oregon21.7
- wk8vs Indiana19.1
- wk2vs Oklahoma16.8
- wk7vs Penn State15.0
- wk4vs Iowa13.2
Who to root for
Games Michigan is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Northwestern over Indiana1.7
- wk3Rutgers over USC1.7
- wk2Colgate over Central Michigan1.7
- wk9Purdue over Penn State1.4
- wk2Temple over Penn State1.3
- wk5North Carolina over Notre Dame1.3
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 4.2-4.88 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk13Michigan at Ohio State5.7
- wk11Michigan at Oregon3.8
- wk8Indiana at Michigan3.0
- wk7Penn State at Michigan2.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Michigan is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.7% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Rate Bowl8.4%
- Pinstripe Bowl8.3%
- Las Vegas Bowl8.2%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl7.6%
- Music City Bowl6.7%
- ReliaQuest Bowl5.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 16 have sent Michigan a player since 2010 — 49 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Michigan's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.